Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean market in the US is affected by the expected high - yield, technical adjustment, and factors such as China - US tariff negotiations and weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are influenced by factors like import volume, inventory, and price differentials. The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate between 3020 and 3080, and the soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000 [8][10]. - The short - term trend of domestic soybean meal is affected by the relative positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, showing a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend. The soybean meal market will return to the range - oscillating pattern due to factors such as the decline in domestic pig - breeding profit and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No specific content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive data in the US agricultural report and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on factors such as soybean growth and harvest in the US, import volume of soybeans, and the progress of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The import volume of domestic soybeans remains high in August. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is short - term oscillating and strengthening. The uncertain factors such as the decline in domestic pig - breeding profit and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations lead to the return of the soybean meal market to the range - oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative Factors**: High import volume of domestic soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expected high - yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans** - **Positive Factors**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [14]. - **Negative Factors**: Continuous expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal** - Spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 75, showing a discount to futures [8]. - Oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 105330 tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans** - Spot price is 4200, with a basis of 265, showing a premium to futures [10]. - Oil - mill soybean inventory is 682530 tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main players decreased, but the capital inflow was positive [8]. - For soybeans, the long positions of the main players increased, and the capital inflow was positive [10]. Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Global**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and other indicators of global soybeans showed certain fluctuations. The inventory - to - consumption ratio also varied, ranging from 17.69% in 2015 to 23.05% in 2018 [31]. - **Domestic**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, import volume, and other indicators of domestic soybeans also showed fluctuations. The inventory - to - consumption ratio ranged from 18.41% in 2016 to 23.79% in 2020 [32]. Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress - **Argentina (2023/24)**: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina in 2023/24 showed a certain comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [33]. - **US (2024)**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US in 2024 showed a certain comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average. For example, the sowing progress reached 100% on June 30, and the harvesting progress reached 96% on October 13 [34][37]. - **Brazil (2024/25)**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Brazil in 2024/25 showed a certain comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average. For example, the planting progress reached 98.5% on January 5, and the harvesting progress reached 97.7% on May 4 [38][39]. USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports - From February to August 2025, the USDA monthly supply - demand reports showed changes in indicators such as harvest area, yield per unit, output, and ending inventory of US soybeans. For example, the harvest area decreased from 8610 in February to 8090 in August [41]. Other Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [42]. - The import volume of domestic soybeans reached a high level in August and then declined, with an overall year - on - year increase [44]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, while the soybean meal inventory increased slightly [45]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, indicating a short - term decrease in stocking demand [47]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the profit of imported soybeans in the futures market worsened [51]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price recently rose and then declined, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in the country increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - breeding profit recently declined [53][55][57][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2509)**: The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 2980 - 3040. The US soybean market is influenced by good US soybean crushing data, but the high import of soybeans in June and weak spot prices in China suppress the market. The US soybean growing - season weather has uncertainties, and South American soybean harvest is abundant, which may limit the upward movement of the soybean meal price. [8] - **For Soybeans (A2509)**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 4140 - 4240. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production may suppress the price. [10] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - No content related to daily hints is provided in the given text. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to be strong above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, import soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean and oil - mill soybean meal inventories rebounded from low levels. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets were affected by the decline of US soybeans and showed a downward trend. - The profit of domestic pig farming decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market entered a short - term weak - oscillation pattern. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal supported the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff war still existed. The soybean meal market is expected to remain in oscillation, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war. [12] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertainties in the US soybean - producing area weather. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans continued. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. [13] 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price. - **Bearish Factors**: The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased the purchase of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. [14] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2810, with a basis of - 167, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 82.24 tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward. The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds are flowing out. [8] - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4200, with a basis of 21, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 636.4 tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward. The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds are flowing out. [10] 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds are flowing out. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds are flowing out. 3.6 Other Data - **Trading Volume and Price**: The trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 7th to July 16th are provided, along with the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. [15] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from July 8th to July 16th are provided. [17] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal from July 4th to July 16th are provided, along with the changes compared to the previous day. [19] - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio. [30][31] - **Sowing, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: The sowing and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2023/24 season, the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US in 2024, and the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina in the 2024/25 season are provided. [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39] - **USDA Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 are provided, including harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing volume, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans. [40] - **US Soybean Export Inspection**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. [41] - **Imported Soybean Arrivals**: The arrival of imported soybeans reached a high in June, with an overall increase. The monthly arrival volume from 2020 to 2025 is provided. [43] - **Oil - Mill Inventory and Production**: The inventory of oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal continued to rise. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills increased significantly, indicating an increase in long - term procurement demand. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal output in June increased year - on - year. [44][46][48] - **Import Cost and Profit**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the profit of imported soybean futures fluctuated slightly. [50] - **Pig Farming**: The inventory of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price rebounded recently, while the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit rebounded from a low level. [52][54][56][58]