交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-26 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 1.中美关税谈判进展短期利多美豆，美国大豆天气近期相对良好，短期 美盘受美农报数据相对利多影响震荡回升，预期千点关口上方震荡，未来等 待美豆生长和收割情况以及进口大豆到港和中美关税谈判后续进一步指引。 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆丰产预期打压盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回升，美 豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，八月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面上 涨高度，短期或进入震荡偏强格局。偏多 2.基差：现货3010（华 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-15 豆粕早报 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 CONTENTS 目 录 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，短期利多出尽后技术性震荡整理，美豆重回千点关口上方震荡等 待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆震荡回落，美豆回 落带动和技术性震荡整理，进口大豆到港仍旧偏高和新季国产大豆增产预期压制盘面， 短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港旺季预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4300，基差259，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存710.56万吨，上周655.59万吨，环比增加8.38%，去年同期714.78万吨， 同比减少0.59%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-14 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，8月美农报数据下调美豆种植面积超出市场预期，美豆重回千点 关口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震 荡回升，美豆反弹和菜粕上涨带动，但八月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格贴水压制 盘面上涨高度，短期或进入震荡偏强格局。偏多 2.基差：现货3000（华东），基差-163，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存100.35万吨，上周104.16万吨，环比减少3.66%，去年同期147.01万 吨，同比减少31.74%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-13 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，特朗普敦促中国采购更多大豆和美豆评级小幅下调，美豆千点关 口附近震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高 回落，菜粕带动和技术性震荡整理，八月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格贴水压制盘 面上涨高度，短期或进入震荡偏强格局。偏多 2.基差：现货2920（华东），基差-171，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存100.35万吨，上周104.16万吨，环比减少3.66%，去年同期147.01万 吨，同比减少31.74%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market is influenced by weather uncertainties and awaits the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations. Domestically, high soybean imports in July and weak spot prices suppress the bean meal market. It is expected to return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 3000 and 3060 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The U.S. soybean market has a bottom support due to weather uncertainties, but the high - yield South American soybeans and good U.S. planting weather limit its upside. Domestically, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports supports the bottom, while high import volumes and expected domestic soybean production increase limit the upside. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4080 and 4180 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Bean Meal**: Fundamental analysis shows a neutral stance. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main long positions have decreased while funds have flowed in. It is expected to be range - bound [8]. - **Soybeans**: The fundamental view is neutral. The basis is at a premium, the inventory has slightly increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but heading up, and the main positions have shifted from short to long while funds have flowed out. The price is expected to face constraints on the upside [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of China - U.S. tariff negotiations is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the market is expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance [12]. - High domestic soybean imports in July, increasing bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in U.S. soybean weather and China - U.S. trade negotiations have led to a return to a range - bound pattern for bean meal [12]. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits have led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, the recent increase in bean meal demand and uncertainties in China - U.S. trade negotiations have also contributed to the range - bound pattern [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bean Meal Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in U.S. soybean - growing weather [13]. - **Bean Meal Bearish**: High domestic soybean imports in July and the expected high - yield South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybean Bullish**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Soybean Bearish**: Expected high - yield Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio generally fluctuating [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, data on harvest area, production, imports, consumption, and inventory are presented, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also changed over time [32]. 3.5 Position Data - **Bean Meal Futures**: The futures price has rebounded from the bottom, the spot price has been relatively stable, and the high - level spot discount has narrowed [22]. - **Soybean and Bean Meal Warehouse Receipts**: Data from July 23 to August 4 shows changes in warehouse receipts for soybeans and bean meal [19].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-04 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 ✸大豆观点和策略 豆一A2509：4080至4180区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口附近震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆窄幅 震荡，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，进口大豆到港增多和新季国产大豆增产预期压 制盘面，短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港增多预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4300，基差178，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存645.59万吨，上周642.24万吨，环比增加0.52%， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-30 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 近期要闻： 1.中美关税谈判进展短期利多美豆，美国大豆种植天气近期相对良好， 短期美盘冲高回落，预期千点关口上方震荡，未来等待美豆种植和生长情况 以及进口大豆到港和中美关税谈判后续进一步指引。 2.国内进口大豆到港量7月维持高位，油厂豆粕库存7月继续回升，农业 部会议推进饲料配方减少蛋白含量，豆粕冲高回落。 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底 回升，技术性震荡整理，七月进口大豆 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-25 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕大幅 回落，农业部推动饲料配方中减少蛋白含量不利需求和获利盘回吐，七月进口大豆到港 维持高位和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期或回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2830（华东），基差-195，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.84万吨，上周88.62万吨，环比增加12.66%，去年同期126.06万吨， 同比减少20.8%。偏多 4.盘面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2509)**: The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 2980 - 3040. The US soybean market is influenced by good US soybean crushing data, but the high import of soybeans in June and weak spot prices in China suppress the market. The US soybean growing - season weather has uncertainties, and South American soybean harvest is abundant, which may limit the upward movement of the soybean meal price. [8] - **For Soybeans (A2509)**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 4140 - 4240. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production may suppress the price. [10] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - No content related to daily hints is provided in the given text. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to be strong above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting and growth, import soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean and oil - mill soybean meal inventories rebounded from low levels. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets were affected by the decline of US soybeans and showed a downward trend. - The profit of domestic pig farming decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market entered a short - term weak - oscillation pattern. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal supported the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff war still existed. The soybean meal market is expected to remain in oscillation, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war. [12] 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertainties in the US soybean - producing area weather. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans continued. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. [13] 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price. - **Bearish Factors**: The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased the purchase of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game. [14] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2810, with a basis of - 167, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 82.24 tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward. The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds are flowing out. [8] - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4200, with a basis of 21, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 636.4 tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward. The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds are flowing out. [10] 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, but the funds are flowing out. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, and the funds are flowing out. 3.6 Other Data - **Trading Volume and Price**: The trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 7th to July 16th are provided, along with the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. [15] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from July 8th to July 16th are provided. [17] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal from July 4th to July 16th are provided, along with the changes compared to the previous day. [19] - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio. [30][31] - **Sowing, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: The sowing and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2023/24 season, the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US in 2024, and the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina in the 2024/25 season are provided. [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39] - **USDA Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 are provided, including harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing volume, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans. [40] - **US Soybean Export Inspection**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. [41] - **Imported Soybean Arrivals**: The arrival of imported soybeans reached a high in June, with an overall increase. The monthly arrival volume from 2020 to 2025 is provided. [43] - **Oil - Mill Inventory and Production**: The inventory of oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal continued to rise. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills increased significantly, indicating an increase in long - term procurement demand. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, and the soybean meal output in June increased year - on - year. [44][46][48] - **Import Cost and Profit**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the profit of imported soybean futures fluctuated slightly. [50] - **Pig Farming**: The inventory of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price rebounded recently, while the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit rebounded from a low level. [52][54][56][58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The price of US soybeans is affected by the weather in the US soybean - growing areas and the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations. In China, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans and the weak spot price limit the upward space of the soybean meal price. The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate between 2900 and 2960 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean market is also in a range - bound state. The price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans, but is suppressed by the expected high yield of South American soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate between 4020 and 4120 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is bullish, the price on the disk is bearish, the main position is bullish, and it is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [8]. - **Soybeans**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory is bearish, the price on the disk is bearish, the main position is bearish, and it is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories of domestic oil mills have rebounded. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are affected by the decline of US soybeans and are in a short - term downward trend. The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the supply is tight, and the soybean meal market is in a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas. Bearish factors include the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans**: Bullish factors are the cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. Bearish factors are the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in East China is 2790, with a basis of - 147, indicating a discount to the futures. The spot price of soybeans is 4200, with a basis of 121, indicating a premium to the futures [8][10]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is 82.24 tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease from the same period last year. The soybean inventory of oil mills is 636.4 tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase from the same period last year [8][10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The domestic pig farming profit has decreased, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day. The supply of soybean meal is tight, and the market is in a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions have increased, and the funds have flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and the funds have flowed in [10].