Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile pattern, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2900 and 2960. Factors include the uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas, high imports of Brazilian soybeans in China, and the stalemate in Sino - US tariff negotiations [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a short - term volatile situation, affected by the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The A2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3880 and 3980 [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in September, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. However, the recovery of soybean meal demand from August to September supports its price. The uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations also contributes to the range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff war make the short - term soybean meal market remain volatile [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of imported soybeans in September in China, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From September 19th to 29th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2968 - 3030 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 6.25 - 25.9 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2620 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 19th to 29th, the futures prices of soybeans (including bean 1 and bean 2) and soybean meal fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was relatively stable, around 2880 - 2940 yuan/ton [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From September 17th to 29th, the bean 1 warehouse receipts decreased from 7922 to 7290, the bean 2 warehouse receipts decreased from 100 to 0, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts remained at 39055 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 show the trends of harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025, including sowing rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvest rate [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: From March - September 2025, the USDA monthly supply - demand reports show changes in planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, exports, and crushing volume of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [42]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal (M2601): Expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybean market is awaiting the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations and harvest weather. In China, high September soybean imports and spot price discounts may lead to a return to an oscillatory pattern [9]. - Soybeans (A2511): Forecast to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. The US soybean market is restricted by South American harvests and good growing conditions. In China, domestic soybeans have a cost - performance advantage, but high imports and expected new - season production increases may suppress prices [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - No detailed content provided in the given text 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, causing short - term bearish sentiment for US soybeans. The US soybean market will continue to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further developments [13]. - China's September soybean imports remain high, and oil - mill soybean meal inventories are at a relatively high level. The soybean market will likely return to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - Reduced pig - farming profits in China have led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, increased demand for soybean meal in August and September, along with uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, will keep the soybean meal market oscillating [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish: Slow customs clearance for imported soybeans, relatively low oil - mill soybean meal inventories, and uncertain US soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish: High September imports of soybeans in China and expected high yields from South American soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Bullish: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increased domestic demand for soybeans [15]. - Bearish: High yields of Brazilian soybeans and expected increases in new - season domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 to 2024, harvest areas, production, and total supply generally increased. Ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio also showed an upward trend [32]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 to 2024, harvest areas, production, and imports increased. Ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio fluctuated [33]. 5. Position Data - No detailed content provided in the given text 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Conditions - Price Trends: Soybean meal futures declined, while spot prices remained stable, with a slight narrowing of the spot discount. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [16][18][23]. - Inventory Status: Oil - mill soybean inventories decreased from a high level, while soybean meal inventories continued to increase. Oil - mill unfulfilled contracts decreased from a high level [47][49]. - Import and Export: US soybean weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. China's September soybean imports decreased from a high level but increased overall year - on - year [44][46]. - Pig Farming: Pig inventories increased, sow inventories were flat year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices declined, and piglet prices remained weak. Pig - farming profits deteriorated recently [55][57][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The soybean futures in the US oscillate and close higher. After being pressured by the negative impact of Argentina's tariff policy, it undergoes technical consolidation. It oscillates above the 1000-point mark, awaiting further guidance on the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations and the harvesting weather in the US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean meal oscillates and declines, influenced by the US soybean trend and technical consolidation. The relatively high arrival of imported soybeans in September and the discount of spot prices suppress the market expectations. In the short term, it may return to an oscillating pattern [8]. - The domestic soybean oscillates and declines, affected by the US soybean trend and technical consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans suppress the market. In the short term, it is affected by the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No specific content provided in the given text. 2. Recent News - The Sino-US tariff negotiations remain deadlocked, which is a short-term negative for US soybeans. However, there are still uncertainties in the Sino-US trade negotiations and the US soybean weather. The US market will maintain an oscillation above the 1000-point mark in the short term, awaiting further guidance on the growth and harvesting of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in September, and the soybean meal inventory in oil mills has reached a relatively high level in September. The weather of US soybeans and the Sino-US trade negotiations are in a critical period. The impact of the September USDA report is relatively neutral, and the soybean meal will return to an interval oscillation pattern in the short term [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig breeding profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recovery of soybean meal demand from August to September supports the price expectation of soybean meal. Coupled with the uncertainty of the Sino-US trade negotiations, the soybean meal returns to an interval oscillation pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the uncertainties of the Sino-US tariff war. The soybean meal will maintain an oscillation in the short term, awaiting further guidance on the US soybean yield and the subsequent Sino-US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors for Soybean Meal - Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans [13]. - The soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills is still at a low level [13]. - There are still uncertainties in the weather of the US soybean-producing areas [13]. Bearish Factors for Soybean Meal - The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in September [13]. - The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans continues [13]. Bullish Factors for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [14]. - The expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [14]. Bearish Factors for Soybeans - The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans [14]. - The expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price is 2870 (East China), with a basis of -58, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 116.44 million tons, an increase of 2.48% from last week's 113.62 million tons and a decrease of 13.54% compared to the same period last year. The price is below the 20-day moving average and moving downward [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of 222, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 73.2 million tons, an increase of 0.21% from last week's 731.7 million tons and an increase of 6.35% compared to the same period last year. The price is below the 20-day moving average and moving downward [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, but the capital has flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, and the capital has flowed in [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2980 and 3040. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, Sino - US trade tariff games, domestic soybean imports, and oil mill inventories [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a narrow - range volatile state. The A2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3840 and 3940. It is affected by US soybean weather, Sino - US trade relations, Brazilian soybean production, and domestic soybean supply and demand [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Soybean meal: The market is neutral. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions have increased but funds have flowed out. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern between 2980 - 3040 [8]. - Soybeans: The market is neutral. The basis is at a premium, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions have decreased and funds have flowed out. It is expected to fluctuate between 3840 - 3940 [10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are deadlocked, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market will remain volatile above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, imports, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in September remains high, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a relatively high level. The soybean meal market will return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recovery of soybean meal demand from August to September supports the price, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations also makes the soybean meal market return to a range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High arrival of domestic imported soybeans in September, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: Bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased procurement by China, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, production, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also showed certain fluctuations [32]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. Other Information - The export inspection of US soybeans on a weekly basis has rebounded and increased year - on - year [42]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in September has decreased from the high level but increased year - on - year overall [44]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has reached a new high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to increase [45]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from the high level due to the reduced demand for holiday stocking [47]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean meal production in July increased year - on - year [49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has declined with the fall of US soybeans, and the futures profit has fluctuated slightly [51]. - The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month [53]. - The pig price has declined again recently, and the piglet price remains weak [55]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [57]. - The domestic pig - raising profit has deteriorated recently [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The US soybeans are oscillating downward. With the start of US soybean harvesting and the lack of results in Sino - US trade negotiations, the US soybeans are oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic bean meal is also oscillating downward, affected by the decline of US soybeans, with good recent demand as support and technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans in September and the discount of spot prices are suppressing the upward height of the futures market. In the short term, it may return to an oscillatory pattern. The expected trading range for Bean Meal M2601 is between 2960 and 3020 [8]. - **Soybeans**: US soybeans are oscillating downward, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybeans are bottoming out and rising, affected by US soybeans and technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the futures market. In the short term, it is affected by the interaction of the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The expected trading range for Soybean A2511 is between 3840 and 3940 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. With relatively good recent weather in US soybean - producing areas, the US soybean market is oscillating upward under the relatively positive influence of US agricultural report data, and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth and harvesting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. The inventory of bean meal in oil mills entered a relatively high level in August. With the weather of US soybeans and Sino - US trade negotiations entering a critical period, affected by the relatively positive data of the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, bean meal is short - term oscillating strongly. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of bean meal demand supports the price expectation of bean meal. Coupled with the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, bean meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern within a range. - The inventory of bean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the Sino - US tariff war, bean meal is short - term oscillating strongly, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal**: - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; relatively low current inventory of domestic oil mills; and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative Factors**: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in September; the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans**: - **Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing the price expectation of beans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2910 (in East China), and the basis is - 83, indicating a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of bean meal in oil mills is 113.62 million tons, a 5.32% increase from last week's 107.88 million tons, and a 15.76% decrease compared with 134.88 million tons in the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price is 4140, and the basis is 236, indicating a premium to the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 731.7 million tons, a 5% increase from last week's 682.53 million tons, and a 6.17% increase compared with 689.18 million tons in the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract holders are decreasing, and funds are flowing out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract holders are increasing, and funds are flowing in [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US soybean market is affected by the expectation of a bumper harvest and uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations. Before the September USDA report, it oscillates above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern in the short term, supported by good demand recently, but restricted by a high level of imported soybeans arriving at ports in August and spot price discounts [8]. - The domestic soybean market is influenced by the US soybean market and technical oscillations. It is affected by the peak arrival of imported soybeans and the expectation of a new - season domestic soybean harvest, but the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price floor [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans. With relatively good weather in US soybean - producing areas recently, the US soybean futures market has rebounded under the influence of relatively positive USDA report data and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans at domestic ports remained high in August, and the inventory of soybean meal at oil mills entered a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is expected to oscillate moderately strongly in the short term [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking. However, the recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price, and due to the uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to an interval oscillation pattern [12]. - The inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills continues to rise. With the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal will oscillate moderately strongly in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and further developments in the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of imported soybeans at domestic ports in September, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the price floor of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the new - season domestic soybean harvest suppressing the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From September 1st to 9th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3053 - 3065 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume ranged from 7.84 - 17.49 million tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal was mainly around 2560 - 2600 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume was relatively small [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From September 1st to 9th, the futures prices of soybean No. 1 fluctuated between 3961 - 3977 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiamusi remained at 4200 yuan/ton. The futures prices of soybean meal fluctuated between 3048 - 3081 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was mainly around 2970 - 2990 yuan/ton [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From August 28th to September 9th, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 decreased from 11545 to 7817, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 2 increased from 0 to 300, and the warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased from 10925 to 25915 [19]. - **Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2025 are presented, including sowing progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, harvest rate, etc. [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from February to August 2025 show changes in harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing volume, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [41]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in soybean meal futures have increased, and capital has flowed in [8]. - The main long positions in soybean futures have decreased, and capital has flowed out [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the short - term outlook is a volatile and slightly bullish pattern. The US soybean production area weather and Sino - US trade negotiations are the key factors. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3020 and 3080 [8]. - For soybeans, the short - term situation is affected by multiple factors. The A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3920 and 4020 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvesting, imports, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - China's imported soybean arrivals remained high in August. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August USDA report and the rise in rapeseed meal, soybean meal is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports its price. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The continued rise in domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area, and the variables in the Sino - US tariff war have made soybean meal oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term, awaiting further clarity on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area [13]. - Bearish factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 78, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 105.33 million tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 235, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 682.53 million tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions decreased while capital flowed in [8]. - For soybeans, the main long positions decreased and capital flowed out [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a moderately bullish consolidation phase in the short term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3040 and 3100. The U.S. soybean market is influenced by the expected high yield and the progress of China - U.S. trade negotiations, waiting for further guidance on the growth weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas and the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations. In the domestic market, factors such as the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in August, the premium of the spot price, and the good recent demand all have an impact on the market [8]. - The domestic soybean market is neutral in the short term, with the A2511 contract fluctuating between 3940 and 4040. It is affected by the U.S. soybean market, the high arrival volume of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in the yield of new - season domestic soybeans. The bottom of the domestic soybean price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but it is also restricted by the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean yield [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100, and the soybean A2511 contract between 3940 and 4040 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of China - U.S. tariff negotiations is positive for U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the U.S. Agricultural Report, and it is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic soybean meal market is moderately bullish in the short term, affected by the relatively positive data from the August U.S. Agricultural Report and the rise of rapeseed meal [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. However, the recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price. Due to the uncertainty of China - U.S. trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to the range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a high yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the yield of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - and - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of global soybeans all showed certain fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also changed accordingly [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - and - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of domestic soybeans all changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [32]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the main long positions increased, and funds flowed out [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is influenced by factors such as the expected abundant supply in China, the high arrival of imported soybeans in August, and the discount of spot prices. It may enter a slightly bullish shock pattern in the short term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3000 and 3060 [8]. - The soybean market is affected by factors such as the expected increase in imported soybeans, technical selling pressure, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. It is currently in a neutral state, with the A2511 contract oscillating between 3880 and 3980 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in August, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively bullish data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports price expectations, and due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still a possibility of speculation on the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. Soybean meal is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected recovery in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 79, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 105.33 million tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 273, indicating a premium to futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 682.53 million tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybean**: The main long positions increased, and funds flowed in [10].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean market in the US is affected by the expected high - yield, technical adjustment, and factors such as China - US tariff negotiations and weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are influenced by factors like import volume, inventory, and price differentials. The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate between 3020 and 3080, and the soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000 [8][10]. - The short - term trend of domestic soybean meal is affected by the relative positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, showing a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend. The soybean meal market will return to the range - oscillating pattern due to factors such as the decline in domestic pig - breeding profit and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No specific content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive data in the US agricultural report and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on factors such as soybean growth and harvest in the US, import volume of soybeans, and the progress of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The import volume of domestic soybeans remains high in August. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is short - term oscillating and strengthening. The uncertain factors such as the decline in domestic pig - breeding profit and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations lead to the return of the soybean meal market to the range - oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative Factors**: High import volume of domestic soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expected high - yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans** - **Positive Factors**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [14]. - **Negative Factors**: Continuous expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal** - Spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 75, showing a discount to futures [8]. - Oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 105330 tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans** - Spot price is 4200, with a basis of 265, showing a premium to futures [10]. - Oil - mill soybean inventory is 682530 tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main players decreased, but the capital inflow was positive [8]. - For soybeans, the long positions of the main players increased, and the capital inflow was positive [10]. Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Global**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and other indicators of global soybeans showed certain fluctuations. The inventory - to - consumption ratio also varied, ranging from 17.69% in 2015 to 23.05% in 2018 [31]. - **Domestic**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, import volume, and other indicators of domestic soybeans also showed fluctuations. The inventory - to - consumption ratio ranged from 18.41% in 2016 to 23.79% in 2020 [32]. Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress - **Argentina (2023/24)**: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina in 2023/24 showed a certain comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [33]. - **US (2024)**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US in 2024 showed a certain comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average. For example, the sowing progress reached 100% on June 30, and the harvesting progress reached 96% on October 13 [34][37]. - **Brazil (2024/25)**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Brazil in 2024/25 showed a certain comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average. For example, the planting progress reached 98.5% on January 5, and the harvesting progress reached 97.7% on May 4 [38][39]. USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports - From February to August 2025, the USDA monthly supply - demand reports showed changes in indicators such as harvest area, yield per unit, output, and ending inventory of US soybeans. For example, the harvest area decreased from 8610 in February to 8090 in August [41]. Other Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [42]. - The import volume of domestic soybeans reached a high level in August and then declined, with an overall year - on - year increase [44]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, while the soybean meal inventory increased slightly [45]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, indicating a short - term decrease in stocking demand [47]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the profit of imported soybeans in the futures market worsened [51]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price recently rose and then declined, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in the country increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - breeding profit recently declined [53][55][57][59].