大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-09-30 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，油脂回落带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口上方震荡等待中 美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，短期技术性 震荡整理，九月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面预期，短期或回归震 荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2880（华东），基差-53，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存116.44万吨，上周113.62万吨，环比增加2.48%，去年同期134.68万 吨，同比减少13.54%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力多单减少，资金流出，偏多 6.预期：美国大豆产区天气仍存变数支撑美豆盘面 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-09-29 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 CONTENTS 目 录 4 基本面数据 1 每日提示 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：2900至2960区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，阿根廷出口创汇达到70亿美元目标后结束，美豆千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，短 期技术性震荡整理，九月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面预期，短期 或回归震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2880（华东），基差-57，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存116.44万吨，上周113.62万吨，环比增加2.48%，去年同期134.68万 吨，同比减少13.54%。偏多 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-09-24 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，阿根廷关税政策利空打压后技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口上方 震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落， 美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，九月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制盘 面预期，短期或回归震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2870（华东），基差-58，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存116.44万吨，上周113.62万吨，环比增加2.48%，去年同期134.68万 吨，同比减少13.54%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2980 and 3040. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, Sino - US trade tariff games, domestic soybean imports, and oil mill inventories [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a narrow - range volatile state. The A2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3840 and 3940. It is affected by US soybean weather, Sino - US trade relations, Brazilian soybean production, and domestic soybean supply and demand [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Soybean meal: The market is neutral. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions have increased but funds have flowed out. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern between 2980 - 3040 [8]. - Soybeans: The market is neutral. The basis is at a premium, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions have decreased and funds have flowed out. It is expected to fluctuate between 3840 - 3940 [10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are deadlocked, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market will remain volatile above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, imports, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in September remains high, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a relatively high level. The soybean meal market will return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recovery of soybean meal demand from August to September supports the price, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations also makes the soybean meal market return to a range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High arrival of domestic imported soybeans in September, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: Bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased procurement by China, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, production, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also showed certain fluctuations [32]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. Other Information - The export inspection of US soybeans on a weekly basis has rebounded and increased year - on - year [42]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in September has decreased from the high level but increased year - on - year overall [44]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has reached a new high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to increase [45]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from the high level due to the reduced demand for holiday stocking [47]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean meal production in July increased year - on - year [49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has declined with the fall of US soybeans, and the futures profit has fluctuated slightly [51]. - The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month [53]. - The pig price has declined again recently, and the piglet price remains weak [55]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [57]. - The domestic pig - raising profit has deteriorated recently [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The US soybeans are oscillating downward. With the start of US soybean harvesting and the lack of results in Sino - US trade negotiations, the US soybeans are oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic bean meal is also oscillating downward, affected by the decline of US soybeans, with good recent demand as support and technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans in September and the discount of spot prices are suppressing the upward height of the futures market. In the short term, it may return to an oscillatory pattern. The expected trading range for Bean Meal M2601 is between 2960 and 3020 [8]. - **Soybeans**: US soybeans are oscillating downward, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybeans are bottoming out and rising, affected by US soybeans and technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the futures market. In the short term, it is affected by the interaction of the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The expected trading range for Soybean A2511 is between 3840 and 3940 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. With relatively good recent weather in US soybean - producing areas, the US soybean market is oscillating upward under the relatively positive influence of US agricultural report data, and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth and harvesting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. The inventory of bean meal in oil mills entered a relatively high level in August. With the weather of US soybeans and Sino - US trade negotiations entering a critical period, affected by the relatively positive data of the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, bean meal is short - term oscillating strongly. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of bean meal demand supports the price expectation of bean meal. Coupled with the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, bean meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern within a range. - The inventory of bean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the Sino - US tariff war, bean meal is short - term oscillating strongly, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal**: - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; relatively low current inventory of domestic oil mills; and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative Factors**: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in September; the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans**: - **Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing the price expectation of beans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2910 (in East China), and the basis is - 83, indicating a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of bean meal in oil mills is 113.62 million tons, a 5.32% increase from last week's 107.88 million tons, and a 15.76% decrease compared with 134.88 million tons in the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price is 4140, and the basis is 236, indicating a premium to the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 731.7 million tons, a 5% increase from last week's 682.53 million tons, and a 6.17% increase compared with 689.18 million tons in the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract holders are decreasing, and funds are flowing out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract holders are increasing, and funds are flowing in [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US soybean market is affected by the expectation of a bumper harvest and uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations. Before the September USDA report, it oscillates above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern in the short term, supported by good demand recently, but restricted by a high level of imported soybeans arriving at ports in August and spot price discounts [8]. - The domestic soybean market is influenced by the US soybean market and technical oscillations. It is affected by the peak arrival of imported soybeans and the expectation of a new - season domestic soybean harvest, but the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price floor [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans. With relatively good weather in US soybean - producing areas recently, the US soybean futures market has rebounded under the influence of relatively positive USDA report data and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans at domestic ports remained high in August, and the inventory of soybean meal at oil mills entered a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is expected to oscillate moderately strongly in the short term [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking. However, the recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price, and due to the uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to an interval oscillation pattern [12]. - The inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills continues to rise. With the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal will oscillate moderately strongly in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and further developments in the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of imported soybeans at domestic ports in September, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the price floor of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the new - season domestic soybean harvest suppressing the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From September 1st to 9th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3053 - 3065 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume ranged from 7.84 - 17.49 million tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal was mainly around 2560 - 2600 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume was relatively small [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From September 1st to 9th, the futures prices of soybean No. 1 fluctuated between 3961 - 3977 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiamusi remained at 4200 yuan/ton. The futures prices of soybean meal fluctuated between 3048 - 3081 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was mainly around 2970 - 2990 yuan/ton [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From August 28th to September 9th, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 decreased from 11545 to 7817, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 2 increased from 0 to 300, and the warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased from 10925 to 25915 [19]. - **Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2025 are presented, including sowing progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, harvest rate, etc. [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from February to August 2025 show changes in harvest area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing volume, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [41]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in soybean meal futures have increased, and capital has flowed in [8]. - The main long positions in soybean futures have decreased, and capital has flowed out [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the short - term outlook is a volatile and slightly bullish pattern. The US soybean production area weather and Sino - US trade negotiations are the key factors. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3020 and 3080 [8]. - For soybeans, the short - term situation is affected by multiple factors. The A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3920 and 4020 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvesting, imports, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - China's imported soybean arrivals remained high in August. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August USDA report and the rise in rapeseed meal, soybean meal is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports its price. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The continued rise in domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area, and the variables in the Sino - US tariff war have made soybean meal oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term, awaiting further clarity on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area [13]. - Bearish factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 78, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 105.33 million tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 235, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 682.53 million tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions decreased while capital flowed in [8]. - For soybeans, the main long positions decreased and capital flowed out [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a moderately bullish consolidation phase in the short term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3040 and 3100. The U.S. soybean market is influenced by the expected high yield and the progress of China - U.S. trade negotiations, waiting for further guidance on the growth weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas and the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations. In the domestic market, factors such as the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in August, the premium of the spot price, and the good recent demand all have an impact on the market [8]. - The domestic soybean market is neutral in the short term, with the A2511 contract fluctuating between 3940 and 4040. It is affected by the U.S. soybean market, the high arrival volume of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in the yield of new - season domestic soybeans. The bottom of the domestic soybean price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but it is also restricted by the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean yield [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100, and the soybean A2511 contract between 3940 and 4040 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of China - U.S. tariff negotiations is positive for U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the U.S. Agricultural Report, and it is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic soybean meal market is moderately bullish in the short term, affected by the relatively positive data from the August U.S. Agricultural Report and the rise of rapeseed meal [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. However, the recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price. Due to the uncertainty of China - U.S. trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to the range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a high yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the yield of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - and - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of global soybeans all showed certain fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also changed accordingly [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - and - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of domestic soybeans all changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [32]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the main long positions increased, and funds flowed out [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is influenced by factors such as the expected abundant supply in China, the high arrival of imported soybeans in August, and the discount of spot prices. It may enter a slightly bullish shock pattern in the short term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3000 and 3060 [8]. - The soybean market is affected by factors such as the expected increase in imported soybeans, technical selling pressure, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. It is currently in a neutral state, with the A2511 contract oscillating between 3880 and 3980 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in August, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively bullish data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports price expectations, and due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still a possibility of speculation on the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. Soybean meal is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected recovery in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 79, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 105.33 million tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 273, indicating a premium to futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 682.53 million tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybean**: The main long positions increased, and funds flowed in [10].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean market in the US is affected by the expected high - yield, technical adjustment, and factors such as China - US tariff negotiations and weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are influenced by factors like import volume, inventory, and price differentials. The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate between 3020 and 3080, and the soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000 [8][10]. - The short - term trend of domestic soybean meal is affected by the relative positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, showing a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend. The soybean meal market will return to the range - oscillating pattern due to factors such as the decline in domestic pig - breeding profit and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No specific content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive data in the US agricultural report and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on factors such as soybean growth and harvest in the US, import volume of soybeans, and the progress of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The import volume of domestic soybeans remains high in August. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is short - term oscillating and strengthening. The uncertain factors such as the decline in domestic pig - breeding profit and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations lead to the return of the soybean meal market to the range - oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative Factors**: High import volume of domestic soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expected high - yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans** - **Positive Factors**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [14]. - **Negative Factors**: Continuous expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal** - Spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 75, showing a discount to futures [8]. - Oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 105330 tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans** - Spot price is 4200, with a basis of 265, showing a premium to futures [10]. - Oil - mill soybean inventory is 682530 tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main players decreased, but the capital inflow was positive [8]. - For soybeans, the long positions of the main players increased, and the capital inflow was positive [10]. Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Global**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and other indicators of global soybeans showed certain fluctuations. The inventory - to - consumption ratio also varied, ranging from 17.69% in 2015 to 23.05% in 2018 [31]. - **Domestic**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, import volume, and other indicators of domestic soybeans also showed fluctuations. The inventory - to - consumption ratio ranged from 18.41% in 2016 to 23.79% in 2020 [32]. Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress - **Argentina (2023/24)**: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina in 2023/24 showed a certain comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [33]. - **US (2024)**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US in 2024 showed a certain comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average. For example, the sowing progress reached 100% on June 30, and the harvesting progress reached 96% on October 13 [34][37]. - **Brazil (2024/25)**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Brazil in 2024/25 showed a certain comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average. For example, the planting progress reached 98.5% on January 5, and the harvesting progress reached 97.7% on May 4 [38][39]. USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports - From February to August 2025, the USDA monthly supply - demand reports showed changes in indicators such as harvest area, yield per unit, output, and ending inventory of US soybeans. For example, the harvest area decreased from 8610 in February to 8090 in August [41]. Other Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [42]. - The import volume of domestic soybeans reached a high level in August and then declined, with an overall year - on - year increase [44]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, while the soybean meal inventory increased slightly [45]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, indicating a short - term decrease in stocking demand [47]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the profit of imported soybeans in the futures market worsened [51]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price recently rose and then declined, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in the country increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - breeding profit recently declined [53][55][57][59].