1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that due to the expected high yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, with the potential improvement in demand, the downside is limited, and the market will generally fluctuate with an upward bias, ranging from 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - **US Soybeans**: The active contract of US soybeans closed at 1064.25 cents per bushel this week, down 3.5 cents per bushel. The reasons are that the forecast of rain in the Argentine production area in February alleviates market concerns, and the weakening of the US dollar and strengthening of the real are conducive to enhancing the export competitiveness of US soybeans. Next week's focus points include China's procurement rhythm, weather conditions in South American main production areas, and the progress of the biodiesel policy [8][10] - **US Soybean Meal**: The price of US soybean meal fell this week, closing at 293.6 dollars per short ton, down 6.3 dollars per short ton. The forecast of precipitation in the Argentine soybean production area in February alleviated market concerns, and the strengthening of soybean oil brought additional pressure to the soybean meal market [11][12] - **US Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybean oil fluctuated and closed down this week, closing at 53.51 cents per pound, up 0.48 cents per pound. This week, it mainly fluctuated sideways. The decline of US soybeans brought correction pressure to the soybean market, while the strengthening of the commodity index attracted buying due to the strong financial attributes of oils, limiting the decline [14][15] - **Regional Soybean Prices**: As of January 23, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was 11.69 dollars per bushel, up 0.17 dollars. The price of soybeans in Iowa was 9.94 dollars per bushel, up 0.11 dollars week - on - week. On January 30, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, fell 1.93 to 99.63 reais per bag. As of January 28, the spot price at Brazilian ports fell 3.61 to 125.08 reais per bag [17][19][21] 3.2 Supply Factors - **Brazil**: In the next two weeks, the southern region will have less precipitation, the eastern region will have more, and the central - western region will be basically normal. The main production areas will have generally normal to above - normal precipitation, with the precipitation in Mato Grosso being normal to above - normal in the next two weeks, while the precipitation in the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul will be less [26][33][37] - **Argentina**: The main production areas will have less precipitation in the next two weeks, with a slight improvement in the central and southern production areas. In the next week, the southern and western production areas will receive precipitation [40][42][44] 3.3 Demand Factors - **US Soybean Pressing Profit**: As of January 23, the US soybean pressing profit was 2.54 dollars per bushel, up from 2.4 dollars last week [48] - **US Soybean Export**: In the week of January 23, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 1.2695 million tons, down from 1.3377 million tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine was 1.3244 million tons, down from 1.3366 million tons last week. The net sales for this year were 0.8189 million tons, down from 2.446 million tons last week. The sales for the next year were 0 tons, down from 0.9 million tons last week. The quantity shipped to China was 0.8974 million tons, up from 0.6119 million tons last week [51][53][55] 3.4 Other Factors - **ENSO Index**: The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.914, and La Niña is weakening [62] - **Soybean Production Cost**: The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the next year is expected to rise. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US are expected to rise slightly, while the US soybean planting cost continues to increase, and the Brazilian soybean cost has decreased year - on - year [64][66][68] - **CFTC Positions**: As of January 27, the net long position of soybeans was 54,300 lots, up from 45,300 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 18,100 lots, compared with a net short position of 19,600 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 31,700 lots, down from 38,100 lots last week [70][73][75]