1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that due to a bumper harvest in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support reduces the probability of a significant decline. The market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, ranging between 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, US soybean prices rose. The August supply - demand report increased the yield forecast, but the reduction in the planted area exceeded market expectations. The tightening of the old - crop balance sheet also supported the price. Next week, the focus will be on the US tariff - imposing situation on other countries and the weather in the US main production areas [7]. - This week, US soybean meal prices continued to rebound. The reduction in the new - crop planted area exceeded market expectations. Although the yield increased, the supply - demand balance sheet tightened, supporting the price [10][11]. - This week, US soybean oil prices were in a sideways oscillation. On one hand, the sharp rise in US soybeans supported the soybean oil price. On the other hand, the decline in crude oil prices and the uncertainty of the biodiesel policy led to a large - scale liquidation of the "buy oil, short meal" arbitrage positions, resulting in a stronger meal and weaker oil situation [15]. - As of the week ending August 1, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.48 per bushel. As of August 1, the purchase price at a farm (Iowa) was $9.37 per bushel, showing a decline. As of August 7, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.59 per bushel, also declining. The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, continued to rise to 119.34 reais per bag. As of August 15, the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 140.99 reais per bag [17][19][24] 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean production areas continued to improve, with a drought rate of 23% compared to 13% last week. In the next two weeks, the temperature in US production areas will be basically normal. Precipitation will be relatively high in the Great Lakes region but relatively low in the central and southern regions. There will be basically no precipitation in Brazilian production areas, while precipitation in Argentine soybean production areas will be slightly above normal. As of the week ending August 8, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, down from 69% last week but the same as the same period last year [29][31][40] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of August 8, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.1 per bushel, up from $2.71 last week. The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 533,100 tons, down from 689,500 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 518,000 tons, down from 612,500 tons last week. The net sales volume this year was - 377,600 tons, down from 467,800 tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 1.133 million tons, up from 545,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [43][45][53] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.653, indicating that it has entered the La Nina range. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of August 12, the net short position of soybeans was 20,100 contracts, down from 48,300 contracts last week. The net long position of soybean oil was 55,800 contracts, down from 67,700 contracts last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 78,100 contracts, down from 104,200 contracts last week [56][58][64]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that U.S. soybean meal prices have increased by 2%, reaching $282.20 per short ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that due to the high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support reduces the probability of a sharp decline. The market is generally oscillating with a slight upward trend, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5] - Negative factors include the potential deterioration of US soybean export situation due to US tariff hikes on the world, good weather in the main US soybean - producing areas leading to high yield expectations, and the weekly soybean good - to - excellent rate being higher than expected [5] - Positive factors are the support from biodiesel policies and the expectation of improved China - US relations, a tight balance in the old - crop balance sheet, and the planting area being slightly lower than expected [5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, US soybean prices declined due to good precipitation in the main US soybean - producing areas. Next week, key points to watch are the US tariff hikes on other countries and the weather in the main US producing areas [7] - This week, US soybean meal prices fluctuated at a low level, mainly due to the unwinding of the buy - oil - sell - meal arbitrage [11] - This week, US soybean oil prices rose first and then fell. On one hand, good weather in the main US soybean - producing areas pressured soybean prices; on the other hand, the large - scale unwinding of the buy - oil - sell - meal arbitrage positions led to a decline in oil prices and an increase in meal prices [14][15] - As of the week ending July 25, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.99 per bushel. The purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.81 per bushel and was falling. As of July 31, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.59 per bushel and was falling [18][21][23] - The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, continued to rise to 116.79 reais per bag. As of August 1, the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 139.04 reais per bag [26][28] 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas continued to improve, with the drought rate at 14%, compared to 17% last week [31] - In the next two weeks, the temperature in central US will be lower than normal, and precipitation in the central US soybean - producing areas will be slightly less. Precipitation in Brazilian producing areas is normal but on the low side, and precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is basically normal [33][35][38] - As of July 25, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, up from 68% last week and 67% in the same period last year [42] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of July 25, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.66 per bushel, up from $2.2 last week [45] - The weekly US soybean export volume was 499,600 tons, up from 303,200 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 409,700 tons, up from 377,000 tons last week [47][49] - The net sales of US soybeans this year were 349,100 tons, up from 103,400 tons last week. The sales of US soybeans for the next year were 429,400 tons, up from 238,800 tons last week [51][53] - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [55] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 0.47, approaching the La Nina range [58] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [60][62] - As of July 29, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,700 contracts, compared to a net long position of 6,200 contracts last week. The net long position of soybean oil was 83,300 contracts, up from 72,500 contracts last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 112,900 contracts, up from 103,700 contracts last week [66][68][70]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is expected to fluctuate slightly upwards, with a price range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include potential deterioration of US soybean export situation due to US tariffs on the world, good weather in US soybean - growing regions with high yield prospects, and higher - than - expected weekly soybean good - to - excellent rate [5]. - Positive factors are support from biodiesel policies and the expectation of improved China - US relations, a tight old - crop balance sheet, strong concerns about drought in US soybean - growing regions under ENSO neutral conditions, and a slightly lower - than - expected planting area [5]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Market Prices - This week, the US soybean price rebounded by 23.5 cents, driven by progress in US - Indonesia trade negotiations, strong expectation of continued improvement in China - US relations, and a record - high US soybean crush volume in June [7]. - Next week, attention should be paid to changes in US tariff policies towards other countries and the weather in US main - growing regions [8]. - The US soybean meal price rebounded from a low by $3.7 per short ton to $274 per short ton, as trade negotiations between the US and countries like Indonesia and Vietnam improved the export demand expectation for US agricultural products [11]. - The US soybean oil price rose to 55.82 cents per pound, with a weekly increase of 2.07 cents per pound, propelled by biodiesel expectations, impressive NOPA June crush and inventory data, and rising crude oil prices [15]. - As of the week ending July 11, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports slightly decreased, and the purchase price at farms (Iowa) declined, while the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa increased [17][19][22]. - The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose to 113.24 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports rose by 1.63 to 137.77 reais per bag [24][26]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - growing regions continued to improve, with a drought rate of 26% this week compared to 32% last week [29]. - In the next two weeks, temperatures in central and southern US will be higher than normal, and most of the US soybean - growing regions will have normal to slightly above - normal precipitation (except Nebraska, which will have less precipitation) [31][33]. - Precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - growing regions is normal to above - normal [36][37]. - As of the week ending July 11, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, up from 66% last week and 68% in the same period last year [39]. Demand Factors - As of the week ending July 11, the US soybean crush profit was $2.46 per bushel, up from $2.43 last week [42]. - The weekly US soybean export volume was 276,400 tons, down from 395,800 tons last week. The weekly export inspection volume was 147,000 tons, down from 389,300 tons last week. The net sales for this year were 271,800 tons, down from 500,300 tons last week, and the sales for next year were 529,500 tons, up from 248,400 tons last week [44][46][48]. - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [52]. Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 0.472, approaching the La Nina range [55]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [57][59]. - As of July 15, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 17,400 lots, up from 11,700 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 58,200 lots, up from 53,100 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 113,800 lots, down from 117,800 lots last week [63][65][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight and spot market data for commodities such as palm oil, crude oil, and soybeans, along with important fundamental information including weather forecasts, production estimates, and trade data. It also covers macro - economic news both internationally and domestically, as well as details on capital flows and potential arbitrage opportunities in the futures market [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 09 was 4062.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.76% and an overnight increase of 1%. Brent 09 (ICE) closed at 68.51, down 0.49% the previous day and up 0.26% overnight. NYMEX WTI 08 closed at 66.50, down 1.01% the previous day and up 0.09% overnight [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 8660, 8540, and 8460 respectively, with corresponding basis values of 220, 100, and 20, and no change in basis compared to the previous day. For DCE soybean oil 2509, spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8120, 8150, 8170, and 8090 respectively, with varying basis values and basis changes [2]. Important Fundamental Information 产区 Weather - US soybean - producing states will have temperatures near to above normal and mostly higher precipitation from July 9 - 13. The US Midwest will have local to scattered showers this week, with temperatures near to above normal [4][6]. International Supply and Demand - MPOA estimates a 4.69% reduction in Malaysian palm oil production from June 1 - 30. UOB predicts a 3% - 7% reduction in Malaysian palm oil production by June 30. As of July 1, 2025, the barge rate on the Mississippi River increased by 2%. Brazil has sold 69.8% of its 2024/25 soybeans and 16.4% of its 2025/26 soybeans. Brazil exported 13,420,303 tons of soybeans in June [8][9]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On July 4, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 75% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 6.34 tons, a decrease of 10.25 tons from the previous day. The oil - mill operation rate on July 4 was 66.16%, up 1.68% from the previous day [12]. Macro - economic News International News - US President Trump signed a tax and spending bill on July 4. He plans to impose tariffs ranging from 10% - 20% and 60% - 70% on different countries starting August 1. OPEC + will hold a virtual meeting on July 5 to decide on production policy, with an expected 411,000 - barrel - per - day increase in August [15][16]. Domestic News - On July 4, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1535, up 12 points. The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 491.9 billion yuan. China's futures market showed significant year - on - year growth in trading volume and turnover in June [17]. Capital Flows - On July 4, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 21.144 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 2.835 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net capital inflow of 23.979 billion yuan [21]. Arbitrage Tracking - The report shows potential arbitrage opportunities for oil and oil - seed related varieties, such as P 2509 - 2601, Y 2509 - 2601, etc [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The overall view is that there is no basis for a bull market due to the high - yield in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is generally oscillating with an upward bias, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans rebounded from a low level. Before the quarterly inventory and acreage reports, the price declined. The old - crop inventory was higher than expected, but the new - crop acreage was lower than expected. There were high expectations of improved Sino - US relations, and the "big and beautiful" bill of the Trump administration boosted the price of US soybean oil, thereby raising the price of soybeans. Next week, attention should be paid to the changes after the expiration of the US tariff suspension policy on other countries and the weather conditions in the US main production areas [7]. - After the quarterly inventory report and acreage report, the price of US soybean meal bottomed out and rebounded with the increase in soybean prices, and the bearish expectation eased slightly [10]. - Crude oil strengthened slightly, and factors such as the "big and beautiful" bill pushed up the price of US soybean oil [14]. - As of the week ending June 27, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports slightly declined [17]. - As of June 27, the purchase price at farms (Iowa) decreased [19]. - As of July 3, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa rebounded [21]. - The spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, remained basically stable [23]. - The spot price of soybeans in Brazil increased slightly [25]. 2. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean production areas continued to improve, with a drought rate of 30%, compared to 32% last week [28]. - The temperature in the eastern US soybean production areas was relatively high, while that in the central - western regions was normal [30]. - Forecasts for the next two weeks indicate that most of the US soybean production areas will receive normal to slightly above - normal precipitation [32]. - Precipitation in Brazil's production areas was low [36]. - Precipitation in Argentina's soybean production areas was normal to above - normal [37]. - As of June 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, the same as last week and 67% in the same period last year [40]. 3. Demand Factors - As of June 27, the crushing profit of US soybeans was 2.43 dollars per bushel, compared to 2.61 dollars last week [43]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 251,500 tons, compared to 266,000 tons last week [45]. - The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 224,700 tons, compared to 192,800 tons last week [48]. - The weekly net sales volume was 462,400 tons, compared to 402,900 tons last week [50]. - The sales volume of US soybeans for the next year was 239,000 tons, compared to 156,100 tons last week [52]. - The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [54]. 4. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) was - 0.09, indicating a neutral state [57]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US decreased [59][61]. - As of June 24, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 46,700 lots, compared to 84,900 lots last week [65]. - As of June 24, the net long position of soybean oil in CFTC was 58,800 lots, compared to 61,800 lots last week [67]. - As of June 17, the net short position of soybean meal in CFTC was 101,700 lots, compared to 102,800 lots last week [69].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, there is no basis for a bull market in US soybeans due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a significant decline is small. The market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend, ranging between 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Bearish factors include Argentina raising the soybean export tariff to 33% before July 1st, leading to farmers' concentrated selling, and the smooth sowing of US soybeans with no large - scale drought threat for now [5]. - Bullish factors are that the biodiesel policy's increased addition volume exceeds expectations and restricts imports, which is beneficial for domestic demand of US soybeans; the old - crop balance sheet is tight, and there are strong concerns about drought in US soybean - producing areas under the ENSO neutral state; the planting area may be lower than expected [5]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans declined under pressure, mainly driven by favorable weather in the main producing areas [10]. - This week, the price of US soybean meal continued to fall, affected by factors such as the biodiesel addition policy being unfavorable to soybean meal, good weather in the main producing areas, and general export sales [12]. - This week, the price of US soybean oil slightly corrected as the conflict between Iran and Israel eased, and the sharp decline in crude oil prices led to the correction of US soybean oil prices from their high levels [14]. - Last week, the spot price of soybeans at the US Gulf ports slightly corrected [16]. - Last week, the procurement price at the farm (Iowa) was basically stable [18]. - Last week, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa declined [20]. - The spot price of soybeans in Brazil (Mato Grosso state) was basically stable [22]. - The overall spot price of soybeans in Brazil was basically stable [24]. 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has improved, with the drought rate at 32%, compared to 35% last week [28]. - The temperature in the Great Lakes and eastern regions of the main US soybean - producing areas is relatively high [30]. - Forecasts for the next two weeks indicate slightly less precipitation in the central US soybean - producing areas and more rain in the central - southern regions [33]. - Precipitation in Brazilian producing areas is relatively low [37]. - Precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is slightly above normal [38]. - The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, the same as last week and 1 percentage point lower than the same period last year [40]. 3.3 Demand Factors - As of June 20th, the crushing profit of US soybeans was $2.61 per bushel, compared to $1.87 last week [44]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 265,600 tons, down from 406,100 tons last week [46]. - The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 192,800 tons, down from 215,800 tons last week [48]. - The weekly net sales volume was 402,900 tons, down from 539,500 tons last week [50]. - The sales volume of US soybeans for the next year was 156,100 tons, up from 75,000 tons last week [52]. - The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [54]. 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.227, indicating a basically neutral state [57]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [59][61]. - As of June 17th, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 84,900 lots, up from 54,800 lots last week [65]. - As of June 17th, the net long position of soybean oil in CFTC was 61,800 lots, up from 33,900 lots last week [67]. - As of June 17th, the net short position of soybean meal in CFTC was 102,800 lots, up from 75,800 lots last week [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (June 23 - June 27), US soybean futures prices first declined and then rose. Domestic soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures prices mainly declined. If the USDA area report next week (June 30 - July 4) is not unexpectedly bearish, soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange are expected to rebound. Domestic soybean No. 1 spot prices are stable, and the futures prices are expected to fluctuate with the soybean market [1][2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Soybean Market - **US soybean futures prices**: Last week, US soybean futures prices first declined due to factors such as the decline in US soybean oil and crude oil prices, good weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the avoidance of risks related to the end - of - June USDA report. They then rose due to the weakening of the US dollar and short - covering. The weekly decline of the main November contract of US soybeans was 3.32%, and that of the main December contract of US soybean meal was 3.39% [1] - **US soybean export sales**: There were two large - scale export sales orders. On June 26, 110,000 tons of soybeans were sold to Egypt for delivery in the 2024/25 season. On June 27, about 120,000 tons of soybeans were sold to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/26 season [1] - **US soybean fundamentals**: - **Net sales**: The weekly net sales of US soybeans were flat compared to the previous week, in line with expectations, with a neutral impact. In the week ending June 19, the export shipments of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season were about 270,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 24%. The cumulative export shipments were about 45.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipments to China were 0, and the cumulative shipments to China were about 22.48 million tons (compared to about 23.89 million tons in the same period last year) [2] - **Goodness - of - fit rate**: As of the week ending June 23, the US soybean planting progress was 96%, with a five - year average of 97%. The goodness - of - fit rate was 66%, the same as the previous week and 1 percentage point lower than the same period last year, with a neutral impact [2] - **Brazilian soybean premiums, import costs, and crushing margins**: As of the week ending June 27, the average CNF premiums of Brazilian soybeans for August - September delivery increased week - on - week, the average import costs decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing margins changed little week - on - week (slightly increasing in August and slightly decreasing in September) [2] - **USDA planting area report preview**: Analysts expect the US soybean planting area in 2025 to be 83.655 million acres, higher than the March 31 planting intention area of 83.495 million acres but still 3.9% lower than last year's 87.05 million acres. The USDA will release the report on June 30 (Eastern Time in the US), and due to the uncertainty of the report, it is necessary to wait for the USDA's guidance [2] - **Weather forecast in US soybean - producing areas**: In the next two weeks (June 29 - July 13), precipitation in the main US soybean - producing areas will be basically normal, and temperatures will be slightly higher than normal in stages, with a neutral impact [4] Domestic Soybean Meal Market - **Futures prices**: The main m2509 contract of soybean meal had a weekly decline of 3.95% in the week ending June 27, affected by rapeseed meal (expectations of rapeseed purchases) and the decline in US soybeans (good weather in producing areas) [2] - **Spot market**: - **Trading volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week ending June 27, the daily average trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 140,000 tons, compared with about 390,000 tons in the previous week [5] - **Pick - up volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week ending June 27, the daily average pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 196,000 tons, compared with about 208,000 tons in the previous week [5] - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) increased week - on - week. As of the week ending June 27, the weekly average basis was about - 110 yuan/ton, compared with about - 131 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 98 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending June 20, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 420,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 18% and a year - on - year decrease of about 52% [5] - **Crushing volume**: The weekly soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to decrease next week. As of the week ending June 27, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.49 million tons (2.38 million tons in the previous week and 2.18 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 70% (67% in the previous week and 62% in the same period last year). Next week (June 28 - July 4), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.28 million tons (1.99 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 64% (56% in the same period last year) [5] Domestic Soybean No. 1 Market - **Futures prices**: The main a2509 contract of soybean No. 1 had a weekly decline of 2.79% in the week ending June 27. The spot price was stable, and the futures price was affected by the overall bearish atmosphere of the soybean market [2] - **Spot market**: - **Prices**: Soybean prices were stable. The net grain purchase prices in some northeastern and inland areas, as well as the selling prices in the sales areas, were the same as the previous week [6] - **New soybean growth in the northeastern region**: New soybeans in the northeastern region are growing well. High temperatures recently have been beneficial to the growth of new - season soybeans, and new soybeans in many areas are growing well. However, the acquisition volume of most traders has been slow, and inventories have decreased [6] - **Demand in the sales areas**: Demand in the sales areas is in a seasonal off - peak. High temperatures in many domestic areas, sufficient vegetable supplies, and low prices of meat, eggs, and poultry have led to a decrease in the demand for soy products in the terminal market. The sales of downstream products of most manufacturers have been slow, and the operating rate has been affected. Dealers mainly consume inventories and replenish stocks according to trading conditions [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Overall, the market lacks a basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small because of cost support. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 to 1150 cents per bushel [5] Summary by Section Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans first declined and then rose, showing a sideways oscillation. The price of US soybean meal continued to fall, while the price of US soybean oil rose significantly to a new high for the year and is expected to enter a period of platform oscillation. Last week, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports and the purchase price at farms (Iowa) increased, while the spot price of soybeans in southwestern Iowa remained basically stable. In Brazil, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso remained stable, while the average spot price at Paranagua Port increased slightly [8][9][13][15] Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean-producing areas has improved, with the drought rate dropping from 39% last week to 35%. The temperature in the main soybean-producing areas of the US is 2 - 6 degrees Celsius higher than normal. Forecasts for the next two weeks indicate good precipitation in the main US soybean-producing areas, with no threat of drought. In Brazil, precipitation in the central region is low, and Argentina has entered a cold and dry winter. The US soybean planting progress is 93%, up from 90% last week, approaching the end of the planting season [29][31][33][42] Demand Factors - As of June 13, the US soybean crushing profit was $1.87 per bushel, up from $1.49 last week. The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 406,100 tons, down from 453,300 tons last week. The weekly export inspection volume was 215,800 tons, down from 547,000 tons last week. The weekly net sales volume was 539,500 tons, up from 61,300 tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 75,000 tons, up from 58,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [45][47][49][51][53][55] Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is -0.227, indicating a basically neutral state. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of June 10, the net long position of soybeans was 54,800 lots, up from 35,500 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 33,900 lots, down from 34,700 lots last week; and the net short position of soybean meal was 75,800 lots, down from 86,400 lots last week [58][60][66][68][70]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global financial market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand imbalances, and macro - policy adjustments. Geopolitical risks, especially the Israel - Iran conflict, are affecting the energy market, while macro - economic data and policy expectations are influencing various asset classes such as commodities, bonds, and foreign exchange [3][9][15]. - Different sectors show diverse trends. For example, the agricultural sector has mixed performance, the metal market has both rising and falling prices, and the energy market is under pressure from both supply - side disruptions and demand - side forecasts [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Overnight Night - Market Trends - In the domestic futures market, some contracts like rapeseed oil, 20 - number rubber, and coking coal rose over 1%, while low - sulfur fuel oil, styrene, etc. had significant declines [2]. - Internationally, oil prices weakened, with the U.S. oil main contract down 2.06% at $71.48 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.68% at $72.98 per barrel [3]. - International precious metal futures had mixed results, with COMEX gold down 1.40% and COMEX silver up 0.04% [4]. - London base metals mostly rose, with LME zinc up 1.41% and LME lead up 0.80% [5]. - International agricultural products also showed mixed trends, with U.S. soybeans up 0.02%, U.S. corn down 2.31%, etc. [6] Important Information Macro - Information - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) increased by 4.6% as of June 16, 2025 [9]. - In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month, and 6.3% from January to May [9]. - In May, the housing prices of commercial residential buildings in large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline narrowed [9]. - Israel attacked Iranian military headquarters on June 16, and Iran signaled a willingness to end hostilities and resume nuclear negotiations [10][11]. - The U.S. "Nimitz" aircraft carrier changed its route towards the Middle East [13]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of June 16, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, and there is an expectation of further de - stocking [15]. - Citi analysts expect Brent crude to trade around $70 - 80 per barrel in the near term but maintain a long - term forecast of $60 - 65 per barrel [15]. - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and OPEC + increased production in May [15]. - Israel's largest refinery operator shut down all facilities due to an attack [16]. Metal Futures - In May 2025, the production and sales of pickups increased year - on - year [20]. - UBS recommends buying on dips and is optimistic about global stocks, defense, and gold, expecting the gold price to reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 [21]. Black - Series Futures - From June 9 - 15, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, with different trends in Australia and Brazil [23]. - The CML Ghana manganese mine is operating normally, and the manganese ore market is in a price - consolidation state [23]. - The arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased from June 9 - 15, 2025 [23]. - From January to May, the real estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined year - on - year [24]. Agricultural Futures - Recently, the inventory of imported soybeans in domestic oil mills increased, and the crushing volume is expected to rise [28]. - Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased from June 1 - 15, while the production decreased [29][30]. - In Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region increased in the second half of May [31]. - As of June 16, the inventory of imported soybeans at Chinese ports decreased [32]. - The U.S. soybean export inspection volume decreased in the week ending June 12 [32]. - In May 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing volume and豆油 inventory changed compared to market expectations [33][35]. - In the second week of June 2025, Brazil's soybean and sugar shipments had different trends compared to last year [35]. - As of June 14, Brazil's soybean harvest rate reached 100% [36]. - As of June 15, the U.S. soybean's good - rate and sowing rate were lower than expected [36]. Financial Market Commodities - International oil prices weakened, and Western Oil expects prices to fall if the Israel - Iran conflict remains unchanged [3][41]. - International precious metal futures had mixed results, and investors are seeking safe - haven assets due to geopolitical risks [4]. - London base metals mostly rose, and their prices are affected by macro - economic expectations and demand [5]. - OPEC maintained its crude oil demand growth forecasts, and OPEC + increased production in May [41]. - Some shipping companies suspended services for Middle - East routes, raising concerns about energy exports [41]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures dropped, affecting the downstream market, and lithium enterprises are focusing on overseas markets [42]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was mostly volatile on Monday, with some bond yields rising and falling, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [43]. - The Israeli - Iranian conflict may have a long - term impact on the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds, and U.S. bond yields rose [43][46]. - The Japanese central bank is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate and may slow down the pace of reducing bond purchases [46]. - European bond yields generally fell as traders increased bets on currency easing by the European Central Bank [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose slightly on Monday, while the central parity rate was depreciated [47]. - The RMB exchange - rate index set new lows in different currency baskets in the week ending June 13 [47]. - The South Korean won's trend will continue to be affected by the RMB [47]. - The U.S. dollar index rose slightly, and non - U.S. currencies mostly rose [48]. Upcoming Events - There are important economic data releases such as Spain's Q1 labor cost, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, etc. [52]. - There are also significant events including China's central - bank open - market operations, Japan's central - bank monetary - policy press conference, and IEA's monthly oil - market report [54].