Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 to 1150 cents per bushel [5]. Summary by Directory Market Price - China continues to be absent from the US soybean export market, and Argentina's tax - free policy stimulates agricultural exports, squeezing US soybean exports. The US soybean price oscillated and closed lower this week [8][10]. - The US soybean meal price declined this week because Argentina's tax - free policy led global buyers to increase purchases of Argentine agricultural products, putting pressure on US soybean meal exports [11][12]. - The US soybean oil price oscillated lower this week as Argentina's soybean oil exports increased significantly due to the tax - free policy, causing export pressure on US soybean oil [15]. - As of the week ending September 19, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.83 per bushel, and the purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.51 per bushel, slightly down. As of September 26, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.5375 per bushel [17][19][21]. - On September 26, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, slightly decreased to 116.07 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports slightly decreased to 134.88 reais per bag [23][25]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has improved slightly, with a drought rate of 56% this week compared to 58% last week [28]. - In the next two weeks, the temperature in US soybean - producing areas will be relatively warm, with no threat of early frost, and precipitation will be relatively low, which is conducive to crop harvesting [30][32]. - In Brazil, most of the producing areas have slightly less precipitation, the southern region is relatively humid, the sowing in Paraná state is progressing quickly, but the progress in the central - western regions such as Mato Grosso is slow [35]. - Precipitation in Argentina's soybean - producing areas is normal to high, and the sowing work is expected to start in October [37]. - As of the week ending September 9, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, compared with 63% last week and 64% in the same period last year [39]. Demand Factors - As of September 19, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.22 per bushel, up from $3.14 last week [42]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 512,300 tons, down from 837,100 tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 484,100 tons, down from 804,300 tons last week [45][47]. - The net sales of US soybeans this year were 724,400 tons, down from 923,000 tons last week; the sales of US soybeans for the next year were 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week [49][51]. - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [53]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.068, indicating that it has entered the La Nina range [56]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [58][60]. - As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,200 lots, compared with 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, compared with 59,400 lots last week [64][66][68].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, supply - demand dynamics, macro news, fund flows, etc. It shows the current situation and trends in the agricultural and energy futures markets, as well as the impact of international and domestic economic data on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - Closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 12 (BMD) is 4453.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.37% and an overnight decline of 0.29%. [1] - Latest prices and price changes of various currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.61% increase. [1] 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9340, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day. [2] - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are included, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans being 289 cents per bushel and the CNF quote being 477 dollars per ton. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气** - The future weather outlook (September 30 - October 4) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally high and precipitation varies. Some states have above - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation. [3][4] - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and next week, which will help with the harvest. However, scattered showers in the south and east may delay the harvest in the short term but improve drought conditions. [5] - **国际供需** - MPOA estimates that Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, with different changes in different regions. [7] - ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the same period last month. [7][8] - USDA reports show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales from September 1 - 18 met expectations, with different trends in current - year and next - year sales. [9][10] - Deral estimates that the soybean production in Paraná state in the 2025/26 season is 2194 tons, slightly lower than the August forecast. [10] - Argentina re - implemented export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a sales limit. After a three - day suspension of soybean export taxes, Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high. [9][10] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, with delivery from October to March next year. [11] - **国内供需** - On September 25, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 91% decrease compared to the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 12.39 tons, a decrease of 12.49 tons compared to the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 59.79%, a 1.49% increase from the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the "农产品批发价格200指数" and the "菜篮子" product wholesale price index remained unchanged. The average price of pork decreased by 0.8% and the price of eggs decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. [14] 04 Macro News - **国际要闻** - CME's "美联储观察" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5% and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5%. [14] - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, trade deficit, GDP, PCE, and personal consumption expenditure show different trends compared to expectations and previous values. [14][15] - The eurozone's M3 money supply annual growth rate in August was 2.9%, lower than expected. [15] - **国内要闻** - On September 25, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1118, up 41 points (yuan depreciation). [16] - On September 25, the Chinese central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2965 billion yuan. [16] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's relevant China - related restrictive measures on September 25. [16] 05 Fund Flows On September 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.357 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 630 million yuan from commodity futures and 5.276 billion yuan from stock index futures, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 564 million yuan. [19] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that with a bumper harvest in South America, there is no basis for a bull market; cost support reduces the probability of a sharp decline, and the market is generally oscillating with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include that the communique of the recent China - US presidential call indicates that China will not purchase US soybeans before November, the weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is favorable with high yield prospects, and the expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season is 1.8% [5]. - Positive factors are that policies such as the biodiesel policy and the expectation of improved China - US relations support prices, the US soybean balance sheet is in a tight balance, and La Nina weather may delay Brazil's soybean planting [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - This week, US soybean prices oscillated and closed lower. The China - US presidential call did not mention agricultural product procurement, and it is expected that China will be absent from the US soybean export market before the APEC meeting in November. The US soybean harvest progress has accelerated. Next week, attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of China - US negotiations, the weather conditions in the main production areas of the US and Brazil, and the progress of the biodiesel policy [8][10]. - This week, US soybean meal prices declined. The market expected that improved China - US relations would bring better export prospects for US agricultural products, but the presidential call did not mention agricultural product procurement [11][12]. - This week, US soybean oil prices oscillated lower. The draft opinion on the biodiesel exemption policy has changed, adding options that worry the market about demand prospects [15]. - As of September 12, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.99 per bushel; the purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.73 per bushel, slightly down; as of September 18, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.775 per bushel; on September 18, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, slightly decreased to 120.32 reais per bag; as of September 18, the spot price at Brazilian ports slightly decreased to 139.81 reais per bag [17][19][23][25]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has worsened, with a drought rate of 58% this week compared to 47% last week. In the next two weeks, the temperature in US producing areas will be warmer with no early frost threat, and there will be more precipitation in the main US soybean - producing areas. Most of the Brazilian producing areas have slightly less precipitation, the southern region is relatively humid, and the Brazilian rainy season is expected to return at the end of the month. Precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is normal to high, and sowing is expected to start in October. As of September 12, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, down from 64% last week and the same as the same period last year [28][30][32][34][36][39]. Demand Factors - As of September 12, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.14 per bushel, up from $3.08 last week. The weekly US soybean export volume was 837,100 tons, up from 640,000 tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 804,300 tons, up from 467,600 tons last week; the net sales for this year were 923,000 tons, down from 1,389,400 tons last week; the sales for the next year were 2,200 tons, down from 1,074,000 tons last week; the quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons [42][44][46][48][50][52]. Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 0.905, entering the La Nina range. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of September 16, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 14,400 lots, compared with a net short position of 4,100 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 35,000 lots, up from 17,500 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 59,400 lots, compared with a net short position of 56,700 lots last week [55][57][63][65][67].

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 美豆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 市场价格 02 资料来源：同花顺、钢联、国泰君安期货研究 01 美豆多空因素与观点 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；成本支撑，大跌概率小，总体震荡偏强，区间950-1150美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、美国对全球加关税可能导致美豆出口形势变差 | | 2、美豆主产区天气良好，单产前景预期较高 | | 3、巴西2025/26年度种植面积预计增加1.8% | | 利多因素 | | 1、生柴政策、中美关系缓和预期等支撑价格 | | 2、美国大豆平衡表紧平衡 | | 3、拉尼娜天气可 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It covers various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products, as well as macro - economic indicators from both the US and China [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and price changes of various futures are presented, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, along with currency exchange rates [1]. 3.2 Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided, and import soybean CNF quotes are also given [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Outlook**: US soybean - producing states' future weather shows varying temperatures and precipitation levels. The Midwest has local or sporadic precipitation in the near - term and will be dry later, with potential early frost in some areas [3][4][5]. - **International Supply - Demand**: Malaysian palm oil production in August increased by 2.07% to 1.85 million tons. The drought - affected area of US soybeans increased to 16%. StoneX lowered the US soybean yield forecast. Brazil's soybean exports in August increased, and its September export volume is expected to rise [7][8][9]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand**: On September 4, the trading volume of domestic edible oils decreased, and the trading volume of soybean meal changed. The开机 rate of oil mills increased slightly. Agricultural product prices showed different trends [11]. 3.4 Macro News - **International**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. US economic data such as initial jobless claims, ADP employment, and Challenger corporate lay - offs are presented. Eurozone retail sales decreased [13][14][15]. - **Domestic**: The RMB appreciated against the US dollar on September 4. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, with net回笼 on September 4 and a planned large - scale买断式逆回购 on September 5 [17]. 3.5 Fund Flows - Fund flows of various futures are provided, with positive flows into some futures like CSI 500 index futures and negative flows into many others such as crude oil, gold, and silver [19]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products. It also provides important fundamental information such as weather forecasts, international supply - demand data, and macro - economic news, along with details on fund flows and trading volumes. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities like palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD Malaysia palm oil 11 was 4422.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.74% and an overnight decline of 0.43% [1]. - Exchange rate information including the US dollar index and various currency exchange rates against the US dollar are given, along with their percentage changes [1]. 02 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China was 9460, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [2]. 03 重要基本面信息 - **产区天气**: The future weather outlook (September 8 - 12) for US soybean - producing states shows that most areas will have lower - than - normal temperatures and precipitation close to or higher than normal. The Midwest will have local or sporadic precipitation and lower temperatures [3][5]. - **国际供需**: - Reuters survey predicts Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 to be 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July; production is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July; and exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 10.7% increase from July [7]. - Forecasts for palm oil production in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand in different fiscal years are given. For example, Malaysia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be adjusted up to 19.3 million tons [8]. - USDA reports a private exporter's sale of 185,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - The Dutch Cooperative Bank expects Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to increase by 1.5% compared to the previous year, and Brazil may harvest a record 175 million tons of soybeans [9]. - Information on soybean sales in Argentina, including cumulative sales and sales to different sectors (domestic oil mills and export industries), is provided [10]. - Forecasts for rapeseed production in the EU 27 + UK, Australia, and Germany are presented. For example, the EU 27 + UK's rapeseed production is expected to be 20.4 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous forecast [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index fell to a nearly two - week low due to the decline in freight rates of Capesize and Panamax ships [11]. - On September 3, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, and the trading volume of soybean meal also decreased. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate increased to 65.11% [12]. 04 宏观要闻 - **国际要闻**: - According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 3.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 96.6% [14]. - US economic data such as JOLTs job openings, factory orders, retail sales, mortgage application activity, and API crude oil inventory are reported [14]. - OPEC + will consider further increasing oil production at a Sunday meeting, but may also suspend the increase. The final decision has not been made [15]. - Eurozone economic data such as PPI and services PMI are presented [15]. - **国内要闻**: - On September 3, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1108, up 19 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [17]. - The People's Bank of China conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan due to 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities [17]. 05 资金流向 On September 3, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 7.763 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 5.08 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 12.843 billion yuan [19]. 06 套利跟踪 No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that due to a bumper harvest in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support reduces the probability of a significant decline. The market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, ranging between 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, US soybean prices rose. The August supply - demand report increased the yield forecast, but the reduction in the planted area exceeded market expectations. The tightening of the old - crop balance sheet also supported the price. Next week, the focus will be on the US tariff - imposing situation on other countries and the weather in the US main production areas [7]. - This week, US soybean meal prices continued to rebound. The reduction in the new - crop planted area exceeded market expectations. Although the yield increased, the supply - demand balance sheet tightened, supporting the price [10][11]. - This week, US soybean oil prices were in a sideways oscillation. On one hand, the sharp rise in US soybeans supported the soybean oil price. On the other hand, the decline in crude oil prices and the uncertainty of the biodiesel policy led to a large - scale liquidation of the "buy oil, short meal" arbitrage positions, resulting in a stronger meal and weaker oil situation [15]. - As of the week ending August 1, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.48 per bushel. As of August 1, the purchase price at a farm (Iowa) was $9.37 per bushel, showing a decline. As of August 7, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.59 per bushel, also declining. The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, continued to rise to 119.34 reais per bag. As of August 15, the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 140.99 reais per bag [17][19][24] 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean production areas continued to improve, with a drought rate of 23% compared to 13% last week. In the next two weeks, the temperature in US production areas will be basically normal. Precipitation will be relatively high in the Great Lakes region but relatively low in the central and southern regions. There will be basically no precipitation in Brazilian production areas, while precipitation in Argentine soybean production areas will be slightly above normal. As of the week ending August 8, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, down from 69% last week but the same as the same period last year [29][31][40] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of August 8, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.1 per bushel, up from $2.71 last week. The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 533,100 tons, down from 689,500 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 518,000 tons, down from 612,500 tons last week. The net sales volume this year was - 377,600 tons, down from 467,800 tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 1.133 million tons, up from 545,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [43][45][53] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.653, indicating that it has entered the La Nina range. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of August 12, the net short position of soybeans was 20,100 contracts, down from 48,300 contracts last week. The net long position of soybean oil was 55,800 contracts, down from 67,700 contracts last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 78,100 contracts, down from 104,200 contracts last week [56][58][64]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that U.S. soybean meal prices have increased by 2%, reaching $282.20 per short ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that due to the high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support reduces the probability of a sharp decline. The market is generally oscillating with a slight upward trend, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5] - Negative factors include the potential deterioration of US soybean export situation due to US tariff hikes on the world, good weather in the main US soybean - producing areas leading to high yield expectations, and the weekly soybean good - to - excellent rate being higher than expected [5] - Positive factors are the support from biodiesel policies and the expectation of improved China - US relations, a tight balance in the old - crop balance sheet, and the planting area being slightly lower than expected [5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, US soybean prices declined due to good precipitation in the main US soybean - producing areas. Next week, key points to watch are the US tariff hikes on other countries and the weather in the main US producing areas [7] - This week, US soybean meal prices fluctuated at a low level, mainly due to the unwinding of the buy - oil - sell - meal arbitrage [11] - This week, US soybean oil prices rose first and then fell. On one hand, good weather in the main US soybean - producing areas pressured soybean prices; on the other hand, the large - scale unwinding of the buy - oil - sell - meal arbitrage positions led to a decline in oil prices and an increase in meal prices [14][15] - As of the week ending July 25, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.99 per bushel. The purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.81 per bushel and was falling. As of July 31, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.59 per bushel and was falling [18][21][23] - The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, continued to rise to 116.79 reais per bag. As of August 1, the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 139.04 reais per bag [26][28] 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas continued to improve, with the drought rate at 14%, compared to 17% last week [31] - In the next two weeks, the temperature in central US will be lower than normal, and precipitation in the central US soybean - producing areas will be slightly less. Precipitation in Brazilian producing areas is normal but on the low side, and precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is basically normal [33][35][38] - As of July 25, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, up from 68% last week and 67% in the same period last year [42] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of July 25, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.66 per bushel, up from $2.2 last week [45] - The weekly US soybean export volume was 499,600 tons, up from 303,200 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 409,700 tons, up from 377,000 tons last week [47][49] - The net sales of US soybeans this year were 349,100 tons, up from 103,400 tons last week. The sales of US soybeans for the next year were 429,400 tons, up from 238,800 tons last week [51][53] - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [55] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 0.47, approaching the La Nina range [58] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [60][62] - As of July 29, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,700 contracts, compared to a net long position of 6,200 contracts last week. The net long position of soybean oil was 83,300 contracts, up from 72,500 contracts last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 112,900 contracts, up from 103,700 contracts last week [66][68][70]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is expected to fluctuate slightly upwards, with a price range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include potential deterioration of US soybean export situation due to US tariffs on the world, good weather in US soybean - growing regions with high yield prospects, and higher - than - expected weekly soybean good - to - excellent rate [5]. - Positive factors are support from biodiesel policies and the expectation of improved China - US relations, a tight old - crop balance sheet, strong concerns about drought in US soybean - growing regions under ENSO neutral conditions, and a slightly lower - than - expected planting area [5]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Market Prices - This week, the US soybean price rebounded by 23.5 cents, driven by progress in US - Indonesia trade negotiations, strong expectation of continued improvement in China - US relations, and a record - high US soybean crush volume in June [7]. - Next week, attention should be paid to changes in US tariff policies towards other countries and the weather in US main - growing regions [8]. - The US soybean meal price rebounded from a low by $3.7 per short ton to $274 per short ton, as trade negotiations between the US and countries like Indonesia and Vietnam improved the export demand expectation for US agricultural products [11]. - The US soybean oil price rose to 55.82 cents per pound, with a weekly increase of 2.07 cents per pound, propelled by biodiesel expectations, impressive NOPA June crush and inventory data, and rising crude oil prices [15]. - As of the week ending July 11, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports slightly decreased, and the purchase price at farms (Iowa) declined, while the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa increased [17][19][22]. - The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose to 113.24 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports rose by 1.63 to 137.77 reais per bag [24][26]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - growing regions continued to improve, with a drought rate of 26% this week compared to 32% last week [29]. - In the next two weeks, temperatures in central and southern US will be higher than normal, and most of the US soybean - growing regions will have normal to slightly above - normal precipitation (except Nebraska, which will have less precipitation) [31][33]. - Precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - growing regions is normal to above - normal [36][37]. - As of the week ending July 11, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, up from 66% last week and 68% in the same period last year [39]. Demand Factors - As of the week ending July 11, the US soybean crush profit was $2.46 per bushel, up from $2.43 last week [42]. - The weekly US soybean export volume was 276,400 tons, down from 395,800 tons last week. The weekly export inspection volume was 147,000 tons, down from 389,300 tons last week. The net sales for this year were 271,800 tons, down from 500,300 tons last week, and the sales for next year were 529,500 tons, up from 248,400 tons last week [44][46][48]. - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [52]. Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 0.472, approaching the La Nina range [55]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [57][59]. - As of July 15, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 17,400 lots, up from 11,700 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 58,200 lots, up from 53,100 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 113,800 lots, down from 117,800 lots last week [63][65][67].