观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 01 美豆多空因素与观点 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；需求有望好转，下方空间有限，总体震荡偏强，区间1000-1200美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、中国购买美豆后，特朗普政府对生柴添加政策的支持力度可能减弱 | | 2、巴西雨季回归，降水改善，进入作物关键生长季 | | 3、巴西2025/26年度种植面积继续增加 | | 利多因素 | | 1、预计2026年2月前中国购买美豆1200万吨，未来三年每年2500万吨以上 | | 2、阿根廷南部有初步干旱迹象 | | 3、拉尼娜天气可能导致南美大豆减产 | Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 美豆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周美豆价格下跌 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 Special report ...

【国富期货早间看点】USDA民间出口商报告向中国出口13.6万吨 大豆 Anec巴西12月大豆出口量料为302万吨 20251231 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油03(BMD) | 4065.00 | 0.54 | -0. 15 | | 布伦特03(ICE) | 61.28 | 0. 03 | -0. 71 | | 美原油02(NYMEX) | 57.95 | 0. 21 | -0. 75 | | 美豆O3 (CBOT) | 1060. 75 | -0. 28 | -0. 35 | | 美豆粕03(CBOT) | 302. 30 | -0. 40 | -0. 03 | | 美豆油03(CBOT) | 49.39 | 0. 26 | -0. 18 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 24 | 0.23 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 0348 | 0. 02 | | | 马来林吉特(MYR/USD) ...

| | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油03(BMD) | 4042. 00 | -0. 93 | -0. 17 | | 布伦特03(ICE) | 61.26 | 1.54 | -0.42 | | 美原油02(NYMEX) | 57.83 | 1.58 | -0. 50 | | 美豆O3 (CBOT) | 1063. 75 | -0. 75 | -0. 33 | | 美豆粕03(CBOT) | 303. 50 | -1.27 | -0. 39 | | 美豆油03(CBOT) | 49.26 | 0.12 | -0. 18 | 【国富期货早间看点】USDA美豆当周出口检验量为750,312吨 CONAB巴西大豆收割率为0.1% 20251230 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月30日 07:37 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 02 | 0. 01 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 0331 | -0. 04 ...

【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕12月前25日产量环比减 9.12% 阿根廷25/26年大豆种植率为77% 20251229 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月29日 07:20 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油03(BMD) | 4087. 00 | 1.29 | | | 布伦特03(ICE) | 60. 33 | -2.44 | -1. 45 | | 美原油02(NYMEX) | 56.93 | -2. 52 | -1.64 | | 美豆O3 (CBOT) | 1071. 75 | -0. 37 | -0. 79 | | 美豆粕03(CBOT) | 307. 40 | -0. 19 | -0. 90 | | 美豆油03(CBOT) | 49.20 | -0. 63 | -0. 47 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 01 | 0. 10 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 0358 | -0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited as demand is expected to improve. The market is expected to be range - bound with an upward bias, trading between 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - There are both bearish and bullish factors. Bearish factors include the possible weakening of the Trump administration's support for biodiesel blending policies after China's purchase of US soybeans, the return of the rainy season in Brazil with improved precipitation during the critical crop - growing season, and the continued increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season. Bullish factors are the expected purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans by China before February 2026 and over 25 million tons per year for the next three years, the initial signs of drought in southern Argentina, and the possibility of South American soybean production reduction due to La Niña weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - **US Soybeans**: This week, the continuous contract of US soybeans closed at 1058.75 cents per bushel, up 9.5 cents per bushel. The rise was driven by the increase in domestic Chinese commodities, while the lack of large - scale drought in South America limited the upside. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, South American weather, and biodiesel policy progress [9]. - **US Soybean Meal**: This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at $303.7 per short ton, up $6.1 per short ton. The increase was due to China's continuous purchase of US soybeans and the sharp rise in the Chinese soybean meal market, which led to a rebound in the global soybean meal price [14]. - **US Soybean Oil**: This week, US soybean oil fluctuated slightly higher, closing at 48.72 cents per pound, down 0.82 cents per pound. The rebound was driven by the rise in soybeans, but concerns about the biodiesel outlook and the decline in crude oil prices put upward pressure on the price [19]. - **Regional Prices**: As of December 19, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was $11.29 per bushel, down $0.21 from the previous week; the price of soybeans in Iowa was $9.8 per bushel, down $0.26 from the previous week. On December 19, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose to 116.36 reais per bag, and as of December 26, the spot price at Brazilian ports slightly declined to 142.62 reais per bag [21][23][25][27]. 3.2 Supply Factors - **Drought in the US**: The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas remained stable, with a drought rate of 66%, compared to 68% last week [30]. - **South American Weather and Planting Progress**: Brazil's precipitation is expected to be scarce in the next two weeks except in the southern region. The sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil as of December 20 was 97.6%, close to completion. In Argentina, precipitation is expected to be scarce in the central and southern regions in the next two weeks, while it will be abundant in the north [32][44][49]. 3.3 Demand Factors - **Soybean Crushing Profit**: As of December 12, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.33 per bushel, compared to $2.45 last week [52]. - **Export Data**: On December 12, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 721,200 tons, compared to 1.0711 million tons last week. On December 19, the weekly export inspection volume was 870,000 tons, compared to 810,000 tons last week. The net sales for this year were 2.396 million tons, compared to 1.552 million tons last week. The net sales for the next year were 0 tons, the same as last week. The quantity shipped to China on December 19 was 386,000 tons, compared to 202,000 tons last week [54][56][58][60][62]. 3.4 Other Factors - **ENSO Index**: The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value was - 1.27, remaining in the La Niña range [65]. - **Cost Factors**: The cost of soybean production in Brazil and the US is expected to rise slightly. In the US, the cost of soybean production continues to increase, while in Brazil, the cost has decreased year - on - year [67][69][71][72]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of December 16, the net long position of soybeans was 179,000 contracts, compared to 211,600 contracts last week; the net short position of soybean oil was 67,000 contracts, compared to 103,000 contracts last week; the net long position of soybean meal was 53,000 contracts, compared to 227,000 contracts last week [73][74][76].

美豆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 01 美豆多空因素与观点 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；需求有望好转，下方空间有限，总体震荡偏强，区间1000-1200美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、中国购买美豆后，特朗普政府对生柴添加政策的支持力度可能减弱 | | 2、巴西雨季回归，降水改善，播种进入收尾阶段 | | 3、巴西2025/26年度种植面积预计增加 | | 利多因素 | | 1、预计2026年2月前中国购买美豆1200万吨，未来三年每年2500万吨以上 | | 2、阿根廷有初步干旱迹象 | | 3、拉尼娜天气可能导致南美大豆减产 | Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai J ...

美豆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 01 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 美豆多空因素与观点 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；需求有望好转，下方空间有限，总体震荡偏强，区间1000-1200美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、中国购买美豆后，特朗普政府对生柴添加政策的支持力度可能减弱 | | 2、巴西雨季回归，降水改善，播种进入收尾阶段 | | 3、巴西2025/26年度种植面积预计增加 | | 利多因素 | | 1、预计2026年2月前中国购买美豆1200万吨，未来三年每年2500万吨以上 | | 2、阿根廷有初步干旱迹象 | | 3、拉尼娜天气可能导致南美大豆减产 | Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai J ...

美豆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 01 美豆多空因素与观点 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；需求有望好转，下方空间有限，总体震荡偏强，区间1000-1200美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、中国购买美豆后，特朗普政府对生柴添加政策的支持力度可能减弱 | | 2、巴西雨季回归，降水改善，播种进入收尾阶段 | | 3、巴西2025/26年度种植面积预计增加 | | 利多因素 | | 1、预计2026年2月前中国购买美豆1200万吨，未来三年每年2500万吨以上 | | 2、阿根廷有初步干旱迹象 | | 3、拉尼娜天气可能导致南美大豆减产 | Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai J ...

【国富期货早间看点】印尼12月毛棕榈油参考价926.14美元/吨 USDA美豆当周出口合计净增110.80万吨 20251201 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月1日 07:20 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4114.00 | 0. 61 | | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 62. 32 | -0.95 | -1.02 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 58. 48 | -0. 12 | -1.25 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1137.25 | 0. 44 | 0. 13 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 318. 60 | -0. 65 | -0. 03 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 52.08 | 2.02 | 0. 85 | | | 地区 | CNF升贴水 | CNF升贴水变化 | CNF报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (美分/浦式耳) | | (美元/吨) | | 进口大豆报价 | 美 ...

美豆周度报告 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 01 美豆多空因素与观点 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；需求有望好转，下方空间有限，总体震荡偏强，区间1000-1200美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、中国购买美豆后，特朗普政府对生柴添加政策的支持力度可能减弱 | | 2、巴西雨季回归，降水改善，播种进入收尾阶段 | | 3、巴西2025/26年度种植面积预计增加 | | 利多因素 | | 1、预计本年度中国购买美豆量1200万吨，未来三年每年2500万吨以上 | | 2、阿根廷播种速度低于预期 | | 3、拉尼娜天气可能导致南美大豆减产 | Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Special report on Guotai Juna ...