Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "Hold" from "Buy" [1][10][11] Core Views - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 3.00, up from HKD 2.60, reflecting a valuation based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.8x for 2026 [10][11] - The company's market share in the first half of 2025 reached 12.9%, a slight increase from 12.5% in the first half of 2024, but a decrease from 13.5% in the first quarter of 2025 [6][10] - The adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2025 was HKD 690 million, a year-on-year decrease of 21% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 28% [6][10] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: HKD 28,769 million - 2025E: HKD 31,184 million (up 8.39% from 2024) - 2026E: HKD 32,248 million (up 3.41% from 2025) - 2027E: HKD 33,247 million (up 3.10% from 2026) [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as follows: - 2024: HKD 3.20 million - 2025E: HKD 810.26 million (up 25,221% from 2024) - 2026E: HKD 1,122 million (up 38.46% from 2025) - 2027E: HKD 1,373 million (up 22.37% from 2026) [5] - The company's EBITDA margin for the second quarter of 2025 was 9.6%, down from 12.8% in the first quarter of 2025 [6][10] Market Analysis - The company's GGR (Gross Gaming Revenue) for the second quarter of 2025 was HKD 7.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4% [7][10] - The VIP segment's revenue was HKD 460 million, down 14% year-on-year and 28% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a recovery to only 13% of the levels seen in the second quarter of 2019 [7][10] - The mass market segment generated HKD 6.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2% [7][10] Strategic Developments - The company is actively developing non-gaming businesses, including hosting various sports events and expanding its high-end dining options [9][10] - The company plans to end operations at several satellite casinos by the end of 2025, with some properties potentially being integrated into new gaming areas [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - Wynn Macau's 2Q25 performance fell short of market expectations, with net revenue of $883 million, flat year-on-year and up 2% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 75% of 2Q19 levels [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted property EBITDA was $254 million, down 10% year-on-year and up 1% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 74% of 2Q19 levels, missing Bloomberg consensus of $274 million [1] - Total gaming revenue market share decreased from 12.3% in 1Q25 to 11.8% in 2Q25 [1] - Daily average operating costs increased to $2.66 million in 2Q25, up 4.5% year-on-year [1] Business Trends - Strong business performance in June 2025, stable activity in April, but offset by a lackluster May [1] - Despite no major concerts in July 2025, gaming volume accelerated due to increased visitor numbers [1] - Average daily EBITDA adjusted for theoretical win rate was $3.3 million in June and July 2025 [1] - The company is constructing an event center at the Wynn Palace North Entrance, expected to open in early 2028 [1] - Expansion of the Chairman Club and renovation of Wynn Tower guest rooms have commenced, with capital expenditures projected between $200 million and $250 million for 2025 [1] - Competitive rebate marketing levels remain stable despite new product launches from competitors [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged [2] - Current stock price corresponds to 9x 2025 EV/EBITDA, with a target price of HKD 6.90, indicating a 2% upside from the current price [2]