智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，2025年12月澳门博彩总收入同比增长15%至209亿澳门元(下 同)，恢复至疫情前水平的91%；数字略低于市场预期的18%，但主要因市场过去逐步上调预期，原先预 期为15%。 展望2026年，该行维持预期澳门博彩总收入将增长5%至6%，由中场及角子机收入预计增长7%至8%所 带动，而贵宾厅收入则预计下跌5%。更重要的是，该行预期行业利润将同比增长6%至7%，终于有望超 越收入增速。 就2025年第四季而言，当季博彩总收入同比增长15%，按季增长6%，至661亿元，创6年来新高，远超 该行及市场预期的同比9%增长。至于2025全年，博彩总收入同比增长9%至2,474亿元，高于该行预期的 5%。 股份方面，短期内该行继续看好金沙中国(01928)，长期则首选银河娱乐(00027)，分别予目标价24.5港 元及50港元，均予"增持"评级。 ...

该行认为目前博彩板块估值偏低，认为在盈利能见度改善及赌客增加下，未来几季行业将有显著重新估 值的空间。股份方面，短期内该行看好金沙中国(01928)，主要因预期公司将提高派息，且第四季市场 份额及利润均将有所提升。长期而言(12个月以上)，该行首选银河娱乐(00027)，相信其兼具稳健价值及 长远增长潜力。另一方面，该行继续建议避开新濠国际(00200)及澳博控股(00880)。 摩根大通发布研报称，澳门12月首21天的博彩总收入为146.5亿澳门元(下同)，即日均约6.97亿元，在赢 率正常化及运气因素推动下，过去一周的日均博彩收入达7亿元，高于前一周的6.5亿元。在较低基数 下，12月至今的日均博彩收入较去年12月的5.87亿元增长接近20%。该行认为，其原先预测今年12月及 第四季博彩总收入分别同比升15%及13%，均有进一步上行空间，因目前的数据显示第四季博彩收入可 能同比增长15%至16%，或按季增长6%至7%，料亦可支持市场持续上调预期。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Macau's gaming revenue in Q4 is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year, with industry EBITDA projected to increase by 15%, surpassing market expectations [1] - The firm continues to favor MGM China (02282) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) as top picks, anticipating that Q4 performance will drive upward revisions in market earnings forecasts [1] - Q4 and Q1 of the following year are expected to maintain double-digit growth in gaming revenue, supported by potential increases in dividend payouts for gaming companies [1] Group 2 - The firm predicts that Q4 EBITDA for gaming operators will grow by 15% quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year, despite high operating expenses, with potential improvements in profit margins [1] - Morgan Stanley assigns a "Market Perform" rating to Galaxy Entertainment, primarily due to its lower dividend yield and higher enterprise value multiples, lowering the target price from HKD 44 to HKD 43 [1] - Sands China (01928) is striving for greater market share, and with potential for dividend doubling, it receives an "Overweight" rating, maintaining a target price of HKD 23 [1]

Industry Overview - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Macau's gaming revenue in Q4 is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year, with industry EBITDA projected to increase by 15%, surpassing market expectations [1] - The firm anticipates that Q4 and Q1 of the following year will still see double-digit growth in gaming revenue, supported by potential increases in dividends for gaming companies [1] Company Analysis - MGM China (02282) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) are highlighted as top picks, with expectations that Q4 performance will drive upward revisions in market earnings forecasts [1] - For Galaxy Entertainment, Morgan Stanley maintains a "Market Perform" rating, primarily due to its lower dividend yield and higher enterprise value multiples, adjusting the target price from HKD 44 to HKD 43 [1] - Sands China (01928) is striving for greater market share, and with potential for dividend doubling, it receives an "Overweight" rating, with the target price remaining at HKD 23 [1] Financial Performance Expectations - The firm expects Q4 EBITDA for gaming operators' properties to grow by 15% quarter-on-quarter and by 6% year-on-year, indicating potential margin improvements despite high operating expenses [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Macau's gaming revenue in Q4 is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year, with industry EBITDA projected to increase by 15%, surpassing market expectations [1] Industry Summary - The forecast indicates that Q4 and Q1 of the following year will still see double-digit growth in gaming revenue, supported by potential increases in dividends for gaming companies [1] - Q4 EBITDA for gaming operators is expected to grow by 15% quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year, despite high operating expenses, with potential improvements in profit margins [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley continues to favor MGM China (02282) and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) as top picks, anticipating that Q4 performance will drive upward revisions in market earnings forecasts [1] - For Galaxy Entertainment, a "Market Perform" rating is given, primarily due to its lower dividend yield and higher enterprise value multiples, with a target price reduced from HKD 44 to HKD 43 [1] - Sands China (01928) is striving for greater market share, and with potential for dividend doubling, it receives an "Overweight" rating, maintaining a target price of HKD 23 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citi's report indicates that Macau's total gaming revenue for the first seven days of December is approximately MOP 5.2 billion, showing a daily average of about MOP 743 million, which is a 6% increase from November and a 27% increase year-on-year [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - The total gaming revenue for the first week of December is approximately MOP 5.2 billion, translating to a daily average of MOP 743 million [1] - This revenue represents a 6% increase compared to November and a 27% increase compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Segment Analysis - VIP gaming volume has increased by approximately 6% to 8% month-on-month, while mass market gaming has risen by about 5% to 8% [1] - The win rate in VIP gaming rooms has remained relatively stable [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Citi maintains its December total gaming revenue forecast at MOP 22 billion, which corresponds to a year-on-year growth of 21% [1] - This forecast indicates that the remaining days of the month are expected to yield an average daily gaming revenue of about MOP 700 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Macau's total gaming revenue for the first seven days of December reached 5.2 billion MOP, showing a daily average of approximately 742 million MOP, which is over a 5% increase from November and more than a 25% increase year-on-year, despite a low base [1] Industry Summary - If the optimistic growth trend continues until the end of the month, the total gaming revenue for Q4 could increase by 18% to 19% year-on-year and 8% to 9% quarter-on-quarter, reaching a six-year high, significantly above the bank's and market's expectations of 13% to 14% [1] - The current industry valuation is considered extremely low, with a projected EV/EBITDA ratio of 9 times for 2026, below the historical average of 13 times [1] - An increase of 1 times in valuation multiples could enhance equity value by over 15%, and if valuations return to historical averages, the total market capitalization of the sector could rise by more than 60% [1] Company Summary - In the short term, the company is optimistic about Sands China (01928), anticipating an announcement of increased dividends for 2026 by the end of February, along with expected improvements in market share and profit share for Q4; a target price of 24.5 HKD is set with a "Buy" rating [1] - For the long term, Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is maintained as a preferred choice due to its strong value and long-term growth potential, with the fourth phase development project expected to reflect in the stock price next year; a target price of 50 HKD is also set with a "Buy" rating [1] - The company continues to recommend avoiding Melco International Development (00200) and Austar International Holdings (00880), assigning "Reduce" and "Neutral" ratings respectively [1]

Group 1 - The bank is optimistic about Sands China (01928) in the short term, expecting the company to announce an increase in dividends for 2026 by the end of February, along with anticipated improvements in market share and profit share for Q4 [1] - The long-term preference remains for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) due to its strong value and growth potential, with a target price of HKD 50 and a rating of "Buy" [1] - The bank advises to avoid Melco International Development (00200) and SJM Holdings (00880), assigning "Reduce" and "Neutral" ratings respectively [1] Group 2 - According to Morgan Stanley, Macau's total gaming revenue for the first seven days of December reached MOP 5.2 billion, averaging about MOP 742 million per day, which is over a 5% increase from November and more than 25% year-on-year [2] - In an optimistic scenario, if the growth continues until the end of the month, Q4 gaming revenue could increase by 18% to 19% year-on-year and 8% to 9% quarter-on-quarter, reaching a six-year high, significantly above the bank's and market's expectations of 13% to 14% [2] - The bank notes that the current industry valuation is very low, with a 2026 EV/EBITDA ratio of 9 times, below the historical average of 13 times, estimating that a 1-time expansion in valuation could increase equity value by over 15% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs upgraded the rating of Golden Entertainment (03918) from "Neutral" to "Buy" due to confidence in the company's increasing gaming revenue and EBITDA [1] Group 1: Company Valuation - The current valuation of the company is not considered excessive, with an enterprise value to after-tax EBITDA ratio of 5 times for the fiscal year 2026, compared to a historical peak of 6 to 7 times during industry upcycles [1] - Goldman Sachs adjusted its EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027, increasing estimates by 34% to 40%, and raised the target price from HKD 3.88 to HKD 7.5 [1] Group 2: Market and Operational Insights - The newly opened Decho International Airport has significantly enhanced passenger capacity, contributing to a strong growth in flight numbers to Phnom Penh, with an overall year-on-year increase of 10% to 15%, and a 40% to 50% increase in flights from China [1] - The Cambodian government has recently implemented a visa-free policy for Chinese travelers, which is expected to further boost gaming revenue [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - For the fiscal year 2026, the company is projected to see a 13% year-on-year increase in total gaming revenue and a 15% increase in EBITDA, which could yield approximately 11% free cash flow yield and 8% dividend yield [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs upgraded the rating of Golden Century Holdings (03918) from "Neutral" to "Buy" due to confidence in the company's increasing gaming revenue and EBITDA [1] Group 1: Company Valuation - The current valuation of the company is not considered excessive, with an enterprise value to after-tax EBITDA ratio of 5 times for the fiscal year 2026, compared to historical peaks of 6 to 7 times during industry upcycles [1] - Goldman Sachs adjusted its EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027, increasing estimates by 34% to 40%, and raised the target price from HKD 3.88 to HKD 7.5 [1] Group 2: Market and Operational Insights - The newly opened Dechong International Airport has significantly increased passenger capacity, contributing to a strong growth in flights to Phnom Penh, with an overall year-on-year increase of 10% to 15%, and a 40% to 50% increase in flights from China [1] - The Cambodian government has recently implemented a visa-free policy for Chinese travelers, which is expected to further boost tourism and gaming revenue [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - For the fiscal year 2026, the company is projected to see a year-on-year increase in gaming revenue and EBITDA of 13% and 15%, respectively, which could yield approximately 11% free cash flow yield and 8% dividend yield [1]