Core Viewpoint - MGM China reported strong Q3 2025 results, driven by increased gaming table bets, with total revenue reaching approximately HKD 8.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.39% [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately HKD 8.51 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.39% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was around HKD 2.373 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [1] Market Position and Outlook - CICC's report indicates that MGM China's Q3 2025 performance exceeded market consensus expectations, driven by high-end demand [1] - The total gaming revenue for MGM Cotai and MGM Macau has recovered to 170% and 104% of Q3 2019 levels, respectively [1] - Management anticipates that MGM China will achieve over USD 100 million in EBITDA by October 2025, potentially setting historical highs for monthly revenue and EBITDA figures [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue for the first 26 days of October reached 20.4 billion MOP, with an average daily revenue of 785 million MOP, reflecting pent-up demand during the Golden Week due to previous disruptions from a typhoon and the Mid-Autumn Festival [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The report suggests a significant upward trend in gaming revenue, with total revenue for October potentially reaching 23 billion MOP, marking a 71-month high [1] - Starting from December, due to a low base, the firm anticipates double-digit growth in gaming revenue, maintaining low double-digit increases into the first quarter of next year [1] Group 2: Company Ratings - The company is optimistic about Wynn Macau (01128), assigning an "Overweight" rating, expecting its Q3 performance to exceed expectations [1] - For the medium term, Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is also viewed positively, receiving an "Overweight" rating [1] - The company holds a negative outlook on SJM Holdings (00880) and Melco International (00200), assigning "Neutral" and "Underweight" ratings respectively, citing high valuations relative to fundamentals and limited shareholder returns over the next 12 months [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Macau's gaming revenue for the first 26 days of October reached 20.4 billion MOP, indicating a potential upward trend in gaming revenue due to pent-up demand from the Golden Week holiday [1] Industry Summary - The average daily gaming revenue for October is 785 million MOP, with last week's revenue accelerating to 793 million MOP, reflecting increased activity post-typhoon and mid-autumn festival [1] - The total gaming revenue for October could reach 23 billion MOP, potentially marking a 71-month high [1] - Starting from December, a low base is expected to drive double-digit growth in gaming revenue, continuing into the first quarter of next year with low double-digit increases [1] Company Summary - Wynn Macau (01128) is viewed positively in the short term, with an "Overweight" rating and expectations for third-quarter performance to exceed forecasts [1] - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is also favored in the medium term, receiving an "Overweight" rating [1] - The outlook for SJM Holdings (00880) and Melco International (00200) is less favorable, with "Neutral" and "Underweight" ratings respectively, as their valuations are considered high relative to fundamentals, and shareholder returns over the next 12 months are expected to be limited [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its 2025 total gaming revenue forecast for Macau while raising the 2026 forecast, expecting total gaming revenue to grow by 9% and 5% year-on-year for the next two years, recovering to 84% and 88% of 2019 levels respectively [1] Industry Summary - The estimated industry EBITDA for Q3 is projected to reach $2.108 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2%, recovering to 91% of the same period in 2019 [1] - Total gaming revenue remains resilient; however, increased market competition and rising reinvestment rates are putting pressure on EBITDA [1] Company Summary - CICC is optimistic about MGM China and Sands China, forecasting adjusted EBITDA for Q3 to be HKD 2.352 billion and $590 million respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 19% and 1% [1] - Target prices for MGM China and Sands China are set at HKD 19.8 and HKD 23.8, both receiving an "outperform" rating [1]

Core Insights - The gaming stocks have collectively risen, with Sands China up 5.04%, Wynn Macau up 4.6%, Melco International Development up 4.45%, and Galaxy Entertainment up 3.94% [1] Industry Summary - CICC maintains its forecast for total gaming revenue in Macau for 2025 while raising the forecast for 2026, expecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and 5% respectively, recovering to 84% and 88% of 2019 levels [1] - The brokerage anticipates mass gaming revenue to grow by 7% and 6% in the next two years, reaching 119% and 126% of 2019 levels [1] - VIP gaming revenue is projected to increase by 19% in 2025 but decrease by 5% in 2026, recovering to 29% and 28% of 2019 levels [1] Company Insights - Huatai Securities notes that despite temporary disruptions from typhoons during the National Day holiday and late September, the number of visitors to Macau has met government expectations and exceeded levels from the same period in 2019 when excluding weather impacts [1] - The daily gaming revenue during the National Day holiday showed a slight year-on-year increase [1] - Key drivers for the sector post-holiday include policies like "one permit, multiple entries" between Zhuhai and Macau, the wealth effect from "gold stocks," and the synergistic effects of non-gaming events such as the NBA China Games and the National Games [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 9% year-on-year increase in Macau's gaming industry EBITDA for Q3, with gaming revenue expected to rise by 12.5%. However, the overall EBITDA margin is anticipated to decline both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] Industry Summary - The gaming industry in Macau is projected to see a year-on-year EBITDA increase of 9% for Q3 [1] - Gaming revenue is expected to grow by 12.5% in the same period [1] - The overall EBITDA margin is expected to decline compared to both the previous year and the previous quarter [1] - For Q4, gaming revenue is anticipated to grow by over 10% year-on-year [1] - The industry's EV/EBITDA forecast for this year is 10 times, which is lower than the 15-year average of 12.8 times, potentially allowing Macau gaming stocks to outperform the market [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Wynn Macau (01128) due to its increasing market share, high yield, and attractive valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 9% year-on-year increase in Macau's gaming industry EBITDA for Q3, with gaming revenue expected to rise by 12.5%. However, it anticipates a decline in overall EBITDA margin both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The gaming revenue in Macau is projected to grow by over 10% year-on-year in Q4 [1] - The industry's EV/EBITDA forecast for this year is 10 times, which is lower than the 15-year average of 12.8 times, potentially aiding Macau gaming stocks to outperform the market [1] Group 2: Company Focus - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Wynn Macau (01128) due to its increasing market share, high yield, and attractive valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Kwan Cheuk Holdings (03918) has dropped over 4% following a previous increase of over 9%, with concerns regarding the uncertainty surrounding the scale of the Naga 3 project [1] Financial Performance - Kwan Cheuk Holdings reported total gaming revenue of $532 million for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.6% [1] - The net gaming revenue for the same period was $466 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30% [1] - In the third quarter, total gaming revenue reached $200 million, exceeding Citigroup's forecast of $152.4 million [1] Analyst Insights - Citigroup has raised its earnings forecast for Kwan Cheuk Holdings for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 20% to 24% based on the company's revenue data [1] - The target price for the stock has been adjusted from HKD 4.4 to HKD 5.4, although Citigroup maintains a "sell" rating [1] - Despite strong growth in gaming revenue over the past three quarters, there are still uncertainties regarding the scale of the Naga 3 project [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility in the stock price of Goldin Financial Holdings, which dropped over 4% after a previous increase of over 9% [1] - As of the latest report, Goldin Financial Holdings' stock is trading at HKD 6.12, with a trading volume of HKD 69.27 million [1] - The company reported a total gaming revenue of USD 532 million for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.6% [1] Group 2 - The net gaming revenue for the same period was USD 466 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30% [1] - Citigroup's research indicated that Goldin Financial's total gaming revenue for the third quarter was USD 200 million, exceeding their forecast of USD 152.4 million [1] - Based on the revenue data, Citigroup raised its earnings forecast for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 20% to 24%, adjusting the target price from HKD 4.4 to HKD 5.4, while maintaining a "sell" rating [1] Group 3 - Despite the strong growth in gaming revenue over the past three quarters, there are uncertainties regarding the scale of the Naga3 project [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Macau's gaming stocks have collectively declined, with specific companies experiencing notable drops in their stock prices [1] - As of the report, Melco International Development fell by 5.1% to HKD 5.77, Wynn Macau dropped by 2.68% to HKD 6.9, MGM China decreased by 2.22% to HKD 16.31, and Galaxy Entertainment fell by 2.05% to HKD 42.04 [1] - The Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported that the gross gaming revenue (GGR) for September was MOP 18.289 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [1] Group 2 - For the first nine months of the year, Macau's total gross gaming revenue reached MOP 181.341 billion, which is a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicated that the total gaming revenue for September was MOP 18.3 billion, which was below both market expectations and the bank's forecast of 9% growth, primarily due to a 33-hour casino shutdown caused by a typhoon [1] - The third quarter's total gaming revenue was MOP 62.6 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 12.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.4% [1] Group 3 - Citigroup noted that the September gaming revenue of MOP 18.289 billion corresponds to an average daily revenue of MOP 610 million, reaching 83% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [2] - The reported figure was slightly below Citigroup's expectation of MOP 18.5 billion and 3% lower than the market consensus of MOP 18.8 billion [2] - Looking ahead to October, Citigroup forecasts total gaming revenue to reach MOP 23 billion, representing an 11% year-on-year increase, with an average daily revenue of MOP 742 million [2]