Core Insights - Macau's gross gaming revenue for January reached 22.633 billion MOP, marking a year-on-year increase of 24.0% [1][2] Group 1: Revenue Performance - The gross gaming revenue for January 2026 was 22.633 billion MOP, compared to 18.254 billion MOP in January 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 24.0% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Sands China [2][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved net revenue of USD 2.058 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 16.2%. Adjusted property EBITDA reached USD 608 million, up 6.5% year-over-year, with an adjusted property EBITDA margin of 29.5% [4][12]. - The performance of the company's properties varied, with The Venetian and Plaza showing net revenue increases both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, while The Parisian and Sands underperformed [13][14]. - The company's gaming gross revenue increased significantly to USD 2.02 billion, up 23.1% year-over-year, driven by growth in VIP and premium mass segments [5][14]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 29.5%, down 2.7 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to a shift in business structure and rising operating costs [6][15]. - The company's market share improved to 24.4% in Q3 2025, up from 23.7% in Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend in competitive positioning [7]. Financial Projections - For FY 2026 and 2027, net revenue is projected to be USD 7.937 billion and USD 8.363 billion, respectively, with gaming gross revenue expected to reach USD 7.652 billion and USD 8.082 billion [16]. - The adjusted property EBITDA is forecasted to be USD 2.483 billion in 2026 and USD 2.643 billion in 2027, with corresponding adjusted property EBITDA margins of 31.3% and 31.6% [16].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report favors Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and Sands China (01928), maintaining "overweight" ratings with target prices of HKD 24.5 and HKD 54 respectively [1] - Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) in September increased by 6% year-on-year to MOP 18.3 billion, falling short of the market's expected growth of 9% [1] - The impact of a super typhoon led to temporary casino closures and widespread flight and train cancellations, estimated to have reduced monthly GGR by 5% to 10%, indicating that GGR would have shown double-digit year-on-year growth without the typhoon's impact [1] Group 2 - The firm predicts that during the first five days of the "Golden Week," the average daily GGR in Macau will exceed MOP 1.1 billion, compared to MOP 1.08 billion last year, potentially reaching pre-pandemic levels of MOP 1.16 billion [1] - Demand towards the end of the year is expected to be more persistent and robust, driving daily GGR in the second week of October to MOP 750 million to MOP 760 million, compared to MOP 643 million last year [1] - The first two weeks of October are projected to yield an average daily GGR of MOP 930 million, compared to MOP 846 million last year, with total monthly GGR expected to rise by 11% to 13% year-on-year, exceeding MOP 23 billion, marking a six-year high [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has a favorable outlook on Macau gaming stocks, specifically Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and Sands China (01928), assigning both an "Overweight" rating with target prices of HKD 24.5 and HKD 54 respectively [1] Group 1: Macau Gaming Revenue - Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) in September increased by 6% year-on-year to MOP 18.3 billion, falling short of market expectations of a 9% growth [1] - The impact of a super typhoon led to temporary casino closures and widespread flight and train cancellations, estimated to have reduced monthly GGR by 5% to 10%, indicating that GGR would have shown double-digit year-on-year growth without the typhoon's impact [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The firm forecasts that during the first five days of the "Golden Week" in October, the average daily GGR will exceed MOP 1.1 billion, compared to MOP 1.08 billion last year, and may approach pre-pandemic levels of MOP 1.16 billion [1] - Demand towards the end of the year is expected to be more sustained and robust, with projections for the second week of October indicating an average daily GGR of MOP 750 million to MOP 760 million, compared to MOP 643 million last year [1] - For the first two weeks of October, the average daily GGR is anticipated to reach MOP 930 million, compared to MOP 846 million last year, with total monthly GGR expected to increase by 11% to 13% year-on-year, exceeding MOP 23 billion, marking a six-year high [1]