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卡牌的二手江湖
经济观察报· 2025-05-09 14:48
Core Insights - The trading of collectible cards in the primary market is booming, which is driving rapid growth in the secondary market, although both markets are still in their infancy in China [3][6] - The value of collectible cards, the popularity of intellectual properties (IPs), and the issuance strategies of companies will significantly impact the secondary market [3][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The collectible card market in China is experiencing a surge, with companies like 卡游 (Kayo) leading the market with over 70% market share [3] - Kayo's revenue is projected to reach 100.57 billion yuan in 2024, a threefold increase from the previous year, with a net profit of 44.66 billion yuan, marking a 378.16% year-on-year growth [3][11] - The secondary market is heavily influenced by the popularity of specific IPs, with 小马宝莉 (My Little Pony) becoming a key driver of Kayo's revenue growth in 2024 [11][12] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers, such as students, are actively participating in the card trading market, often selling cards for profit despite not being fans of the IPs [2][5] - The probability of obtaining rare cards is low, with some cards having a chance as low as 0.062%, making the experience akin to gambling [2][5] - The secondary market is seeing significant transactions, with some cards selling for thousands of yuan, far exceeding their original purchase price [6][11] Group 3: Rating and Valuation - The demand for graded cards is increasing, with domestic grading institutions seeing a surge in orders, particularly for 小马宝莉 cards [8][9] - Graded cards serve both a collectible and aesthetic purpose, differing from international markets where grading is more focused on investment [8][9] - The domestic grading market is evolving, with a goal to establish standardized grading and pricing systems [9][12] Group 4: Future Potential - The collectible card market in China has significant growth potential, with per capita spending on collectible cards currently at only 8.6 yuan compared to 92.3 yuan in Japan and 50.7 yuan in the U.S. [12] - The overall market for entertainment products in China is expected to exceed 330 billion yuan by 2029, indicating a growing interest in collectible cards [12] - However, the secondary market may face challenges from the primary market, especially with companies reviving popular cards, which could disrupt the value of existing cards [12]
卡牌的二手江湖
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-05-09 13:42
Core Insights - The collectible card market in China is experiencing rapid growth, driven by popular IPs like My Little Pony, which has significantly boosted sales and trading activities [2][4][8] - Card You Co., Ltd. (卡游) is the leading company in the collectible card market, holding over 70% market share and reporting a revenue of 100.57 billion yuan in 2024, a threefold increase from the previous year [2][8] - The secondary market for trading cards is also expanding, with platforms like Xianyu and Qidao seeing increased transaction volumes, particularly for My Little Pony cards [4][8] Company Overview - Card You Co., Ltd. has submitted a second IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the first publicly listed company focused on collectible trading cards [2] - The company’s revenue growth is attributed to the popularity of its licensed IPs, with My Little Pony replacing Ultraman as the main revenue driver in 2024 [8] - The adjusted net profit for Card You in 2024 is reported at 44.66 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 378.16% [2][8] Market Dynamics - The collectible card market in China is still in its early stages, with significant potential for growth as the average spending per person is only 8.6 yuan compared to 92.3 yuan in Japan and 50.7 yuan in the U.S. [9] - The demand for graded cards is increasing, with domestic grading institutions seeing a surge in orders, particularly for My Little Pony cards, which has led to over 1 million cards being graded in 2024 [6][7] - The secondary market is influenced by the popularity of IPs, with the lifecycle of card products being relatively short, often declining in demand significantly after the initial hype [8][10] Trading and Valuation - The trading of collectible cards is characterized by a mix of luck and strategy, with players often calculating the probabilities of obtaining rare cards from different price packages [3][4] - Graded cards are becoming a new business segment, with players seeking authentication and valuation for their collections, which is different from the international market where cards are treated as investment assets [5][6] - The secondary market is seeing high transaction values, with some My Little Pony cards selling for thousands of yuan, indicating a robust demand for rare and graded cards [4][8]