传媒商社行业 投资评级 推荐 维持 轻量化IP载体撬动百亿市场，全链条布局构筑壁垒 ——IP衍生品行业研究之集换式卡牌 证券研究报告 2025年9月22日 证券分析师:李典 邮箱:lidian@gyzq.com.cn SAC执业资格证书编码:S0020516080001 证券分析师:徐梓童 邮箱:xuzitong@gyzq.com.cn SAC执业资格证书编码:S0020525080002 报告要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 集换式卡牌以收集和交换卡牌为核心玩法，经由IP与消费者产生情感链接，为玩家提供多维度价值。集换式卡牌兼具观赏和收集、即时体验、社 交、投资等多维度价值，相较于其他IP衍生品类，具备轻量便携，单价低的特点，通过集换机制进一步强化了其社交货币属性。目前以宝可梦为 代表的TCG卡牌（2024年销售约14亿美元）和以球星卡为代表的收藏卡牌（Fanatics Collectibles 2024年收入达16亿美元）依托竞技和交易生 态的构建成为全球两大主导品类。 美国及日本集换式卡牌产业起步较早，中国市场24年迎来爆发式增长，市场规模达到263亿，人群破圈和人均消费金额提升均具备较大空间 ...

作者 / 园长 编辑 / 陈梅希 一个卡牌，一个玩具，同样是靠着超低成本内容载体提供情绪价值的商业模式，都在国内取得了成功。 在出海时，卡游又走上了和泡泡玛特相似的路径。这一回，卡游有可能复制泡泡玛特吗？ 人在东南亚，刚进大商场 女明星Lisa的"自来水"、王室公主晒同款、被任命为旅游形象大使……Labubu在泰国受到的追捧，成为 无数中国品牌在出海东南亚时梦寐以求的名场面。能够组织起这般有影响力的市场活动，意味着品牌背 后有一个颇具实力的当地经销商，能够调动资源帮助品牌"政通人和"。 因此，对于卡游来说，渠道是出海首先要解决的问题。 根据卡游出海小红书账号"KayouGlobal"的信息，卡游在海外的零售模式主要分为四种： 从2024年底开始，泰国很多711便利店的货架上，出现了一款国内用户熟悉的商品：闪着五彩光线、装 在密封袋里的小马宝莉卡牌，几乎和国内卖的一模一样。 为什么说是"几乎"呢？出现在泰国的小马宝莉卡牌，包装上印刷的不是中文而是泰文，其他要素则大差 不差。 这一点小小的不同，体现着卡牌出品方卡游的微妙变化——它正在试图走泡泡玛特的路子，复刻 Labubu从泰国到东南亚再到欧美市场的爆红，通过出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expansion strategy of Kayou, a card game company, into Southeast Asia, particularly Thailand, and compares its approach to that of Pop Mart, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in replicating success in international markets [5][7][26]. Group 1: Market Entry Strategy - Kayou is attempting to replicate Pop Mart's success by introducing familiar products, such as My Little Pony cards, in Thailand, with packaging adapted to local language [5][7]. - The company has identified four main retail strategies for overseas expansion: becoming regional agents, opening franchise stores, collaborating with local supermarkets, and partnering with e-commerce platforms [11][14]. - Kayou's first overseas store opened in Hong Kong's K11 shopping art museum, with plans for further expansion in Macau and Malaysia, indicating a shift towards high-end retail environments [14][16]. Group 2: IP and Content Strategy - Kayou has secured licenses for globally recognized IPs like Harry Potter and DC Comics, positioning itself as a leader in the domestic IP sector [18][22]. - The company lacks a standout product akin to Pop Mart's Labubu, which has limited its ability to drive sales and brand recognition [22][24]. - Kayou's recent IP offerings are heavily influenced by Chinese culture, which may pose challenges in gaining acceptance in overseas markets due to cultural barriers [24][25]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The article draws parallels between Kayou and American trading card companies like Panini and Topps, which have successfully penetrated Asian markets by leveraging established sports IPs [29][31]. - American companies have developed a robust ecosystem around trading cards, utilizing various marketing channels and community engagement strategies that Kayou could learn from [31][32]. - Kayou's reliance on culturally specific IPs may hinder its ability to compete effectively against established American brands that have a broader global appeal [33]. Group 4: IPO and Future Prospects - Kayou has submitted its IPO application, which could enhance its credibility and support its international expansion efforts [34][35]. - The company faces challenges related to compliance and market readiness, which may affect its IPO timeline and overall strategy [34][35]. - Successful international expansion could bolster Kayou's market position and facilitate its IPO, potentially increasing its influence in the global card game market [35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the international expansion strategy of Kayou, a card game company, highlighting its efforts to replicate the success of brands like Pop Mart in Southeast Asia through various retail models and partnerships [4][10][23]. Group 1: Expansion Strategy - Kayou is attempting to enter the Southeast Asian market by utilizing local distributors and establishing retail channels, similar to the approach taken by Pop Mart [4][5]. - The company has identified four main retail models for overseas expansion: regional agency partnerships, single-store franchises, collaborations with chain supermarkets, and e-commerce platforms [6][8]. - Kayou's first overseas store opened in Hong Kong's K11 shopping art museum, with plans for further expansion in Macau and Malaysia [9][10]. Group 2: IP and Content Strategy - Kayou has launched overseas versions of popular IPs such as My Little Pony, Harry Potter, and DC Comics, aiming to leverage globally recognized brands for market penetration [10][12]. - The company lacks a standout IP like Pop Mart's Labubu, which has significantly driven sales and brand recognition, posing a challenge for Kayou's growth [12][18]. - Kayou's self-developed IPs are heavily influenced by Chinese culture, which may limit their appeal in international markets due to cultural barriers [14][15]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The article draws parallels between Kayou and American trading card companies like Panini and Topps, which have successfully expanded into Asian markets by leveraging established sports IPs [19][20]. - American companies have developed diverse marketing strategies, including social media engagement and community-building events, which Kayou could adopt to enhance its market presence [21][22]. - Kayou's reliance on culturally specific IPs may hinder its ability to achieve the same level of market penetration as its American counterparts, necessitating a long-term strategy to build brand recognition and user engagement [22][24]. Group 4: IPO and Future Prospects - Kayou submitted its IPO application in April 2025, but progress appears stalled, potentially due to compliance issues or challenges related to its IP portfolio [23][24]. - The company's international expansion could enhance its IP potential and provide a positive narrative for its IPO, which is crucial for establishing trust in overseas markets [23][24].

Group 1 - The article discusses the expansion of Kayou, a card game company, into the Southeast Asian market, particularly Thailand, with the introduction of My Little Pony cards in local language packaging [1][3][4] - Kayou aims to replicate the success of Pop Mart by leveraging local distributors and marketing strategies to enhance brand visibility and sales in foreign markets [5][6][9] - The company has established various retail models for overseas operations, including regional agency partnerships, single-store franchises, collaborations with supermarkets, and e-commerce platforms [8][10][11] Group 2 - Kayou's strategy includes opening high-end stores in locations like Hong Kong and Macau, contrasting with its domestic focus on more affordable shopping environments [10][11] - The company is also exploring non-traditional channels, such as partnerships with cinema chains to promote limited edition cards tied to popular films [12] - Kayou has secured licensing agreements with major global IP holders, positioning itself among the top tier of domestic IP companies [16][18] Group 3 - The article highlights the challenge Kayou faces in finding a breakout product similar to Pop Mart's Labubu, as its current IPs lack the same level of global appeal [18][20] - Kayou's reliance on culturally specific IPs may hinder its ability to penetrate broader international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia where card culture is less established [21][30] - The company is compared to American trading card companies, which have successfully built a market presence through established sports IPs and diverse marketing strategies [23][24][25] Group 4 - Kayou's IPO process has faced delays, potentially due to compliance issues and the need for a stronger IP portfolio [31][32][35] - The company believes that international expansion could enhance its IP potential and support its IPO efforts by promoting Chinese cultural elements [33][35] - The future of Kayou's IPO and its impact on international growth remains uncertain, with developments expected in the coming months [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the collectible card industry [6] Core Insights - The collectible card industry is expected to maintain strong growth, driven by diverse IPs, evolving consumer habits, and the inherent social, collectible, and investment attributes of cards [5][12] - The market for collectible cards in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024, with a market share of 25.8% in the overall entertainment toy industry by 2024 [12][16] - The industry is characterized by a high concentration of major players, with the top five companies holding 82.4% of the market share [4][32] Summary by Sections 1. Collectible Card Market Potential - The collectible card segment is a significant part of the rapidly growing entertainment toy industry, which is expected to reach a market size of RMB 1,018 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 15.8% from 2024 to 2029 [12][13] - The collectible card market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024, making it the fastest-growing sub-sector within the entertainment toy industry [16][17] 2. Types and Characteristics of Cards - The card industry is divided into collectible and non-collectible cards, with collectible cards offering themes, collection, exchange, and competitive play [3][26] - Collectible cards can be further categorized into competitive and non-competitive types, catering to both strategic gameplay and collection interests [3][26] 3. Competitive Landscape - The collectible card industry is highly concentrated, with the leading company, 卡游 (KAYOU), holding a market share of 71.1% in 2024 [4][32] - Major players include 卡游, 宝可梦公司, and others, with the top five companies dominating the market [4][32] 4. Consumer Engagement and Market Dynamics - The low entry barrier and multiple attributes of collectible cards, including social interaction, competition, and investment potential, contribute to their growing popularity [4][39] - The rise of live streaming and secondary markets is enhancing consumer engagement and driving sales in the collectible card sector [4][54] 5. Future Growth Drivers - Factors such as increasing disposable income, expanding consumer demographics, and heightened interest from IP holders in developing entertainment products are expected to drive the market forward [20][21][24] - The overseas market presents significant opportunities for growth, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the collectible card market is projected to reach RMB 2.8 billion by 2024 [24]

Summary of Conference Call on the Toy Card Industry Industry Overview - The toy card industry has been significantly impacted by the entry of Japanese brands into the Chinese market, which has altered the sales model and led to the closure of many low-quality stores [1][3][4]. Key Points Company Performance - 卡游 (Kawoo) has successfully adapted to market changes by enhancing its product line and expanding distribution channels, resulting in a dramatic sales increase in 2024 [1][4]. - 凯钰 (Kaiyu) has a competitive edge in IP procurement, allowing for rapid selection of popular international IPs and quick product updates, leading to high revenue [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The influx of Japanese brands like 宝可梦 (Pokémon) has educated consumers in China about card games, but many small, poorly managed stores failed to meet consumer needs, leading to a market shakeout [2][3]. - The overall market evolution has improved consumer awareness and acceptance of card games, benefiting companies like 卡游 [4]. Distribution Strategies - 卡游 focuses on high-quality first-level distributors, while 布鲁可 (Blucor) employs a traditional toy industry model that includes multiple levels of distributors [7][8]. - The differing strategies affect how each company gathers market feedback and manages pricing [9]. Product Lifecycle Management - Both 卡游 and 布鲁可 rely on established IPs for product development, facing challenges in creating original IPs due to the high investment required [11][12]. - Continuous product updates and innovative collaborations are essential for extending the lifecycle of their offerings [13][14]. Supply Chain Considerations - 卡游 benefits from owning its production facilities, allowing for better control over production timelines and market responsiveness [16]. - 布鲁可's reluctance to invest in a complete supply chain is attributed to high costs and the nature of its product offerings [17]. Competitive Landscape - The domestic derivative product market is growing slowly, with companies like 卡游, 布鲁可, and 泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart) competing closely, often mirroring Japanese market leaders [10][24]. - 泡泡玛特 has differentiated itself through original content and collaborations with well-known brands, while 卡游 and 布鲁可 leverage rich storytelling from their IPs [10][11]. Future Outlook - 卡游 plans to expand into international markets, particularly in Japan and Thailand, while facing challenges in the competitive Japanese market [18][19]. - 布鲁可 is accelerating its product launch pace to maximize revenue from newly acquired IPs [27]. Additional Insights - The choice of IP and product form must align with the company's strengths and market demands, considering factors like target demographics and cultural relevance [22][23]. - The ability to manage production costs and maintain quality is critical, especially in the printing and manufacturing processes [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and business model of a company named "卡游" (KAYOU), which specializes in collectible card games, highlighting its impressive financial performance and the cultural phenomenon surrounding card collecting among children and adults alike [2][31]. Group 1: Company Overview - 卡游 is preparing for an IPO, with projected revenues of 100.57 billion RMB and a net profit of 44.66 billion RMB for 2024, indicating significant profitability compared to competitors like Miniso and Pop Mart [6][31]. - The company's revenue has grown nearly fourfold from 22.98 billion RMB in 2021 to 100.57 billion RMB in 2024, while net profit has increased almost sixfold from 7.95 billion RMB to 44.66 billion RMB during the same period [31][32]. - The card business constitutes over 90% of 卡游's total revenue, with a gross margin of 67.3% for the overall business and 71.3% specifically for card sales, which is significantly higher than many cultural and creative enterprises [32][33]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The collectible card market is driven by popular IPs, with 卡游 heavily relying on franchises like "奥特曼" (Ultraman) and "小马宝莉" (My Little Pony) for revenue generation [34][36]. - The company has expanded its IP portfolio to 70, including collaborations with various franchises to appeal to a broader audience [34][36]. - The card collecting phenomenon has evolved into a social currency among children, where owning rare cards can elevate social status within peer groups [22][24]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The excitement of "blind box" purchases, where consumers buy packs without knowing the contents, creates a gambling-like thrill that drives repeated purchases [10][41]. - Parents have expressed concerns about their children spending excessive amounts on cards, with some children reportedly spending thousands of RMB [25][50]. - The card collecting experience is not just about ownership but also about the thrill of opening packs, which keeps consumers engaged [25][31]. Group 4: Challenges and Risks - 卡游 faces risks associated with its heavy reliance on popular IPs, with many licensing agreements set to expire in the next three years, potentially impacting revenue if not renewed [42][44]. - The company also grapples with issues related to counterfeit cards and the challenges of regulating sales to minors, as many children can easily purchase cards without age verification [49][50]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with potential growth in the arena of competitive card games, but cultural acceptance among parents remains a barrier [52][54].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-share "Guzi" economy concept stocks, particularly Jinghua Laser, is linked to the second listing application of its core supplier, Kayo Animation, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and the ongoing rise in Pop Mart's stock price, which enhances the investment outlook for the sector [2][11]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jinghua Laser's stock price increased significantly, achieving a 54.78% rise over six trading days, marking it as the top performer in its sector [2]. - The company reported a remarkable growth in its cultural and creative business, with revenue reaching 184.62 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 240.83% [5][14]. - The main driver for this growth is the popularity of card products associated with well-known IPs like "My Little Pony" and "Ye Luo Li," which have gained traction among students [5][6]. Group 2: Business Strategy and Partnerships - Jinghua Laser has established a strong partnership with Kayo Animation, providing support for various card products, including those based on popular IPs like "Ultraman" and "Detective Conan" [6][10]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity by investing in a new project to produce 20,000 tons of UV photolithography anti-counterfeiting materials, which is expected to alleviate current supply constraints [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The anticipated release of "Nezha 2" is expected to boost sales of related merchandise, particularly collectible card products, contributing positively to Jinghua Laser's performance in 2025 [10][11]. - Kayo Animation's recent application for a second listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has created short-term bullish sentiment for Jinghua Laser's stock, although the success of this IPO remains uncertain due to previous regulatory challenges [11][13]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The volatility of the cultural and creative business is highlighted, with revenue fluctuations observed from 88.68 million yuan in 2022 to 18.46 million yuan in 2024, indicating potential unpredictability in future earnings [14]. - Kayo Animation's compliance issues regarding the sale of card products to minors may pose risks to its IPO process and, consequently, to Jinghua Laser's business outlook [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the booming demand for "Guzis" (figurines and merchandise related to anime and gaming) among young people in China, particularly during events like the May Day holiday, indicating a significant cultural and commercial shift towards the "二次元" (two-dimensional) subculture [4][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - During the May Day holiday, over 158 offline events related to the 二次元 culture were held across six major cities in China, with Shanghai hosting more than 60 events [4][6]. - The 二次元 commercial sector has become a crucial part of offline retail, with dedicated spaces in major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu [6][12]. - The market for 二次元 products is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it will reach 1.689 trillion yuan in 2024, a 40.63% increase from 2023 [17][19]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are not merely purchasing products but are seeking experiences and a sense of belonging within the 二次元 community [20]. - Events like the "Detective Conan 30th Anniversary Exhibition" generated impressive sales, with a total of 3.05 million yuan over five days, showcasing the financial potential of these cultural events [8][11]. - The popularity of "blind box" purchases, where consumers buy without knowing the specific item, enhances the excitement and community engagement among fans [19][20]. Group 3: Business Opportunities - Companies like 卡游 (Kawoo) have seen substantial revenue growth, with reported earnings of 22.98 billion yuan in 2021, 41.31 billion yuan in 2022, and 19.52 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2023, indicating a thriving market for 二次元 merchandise [17][19]. - The emergence of various 二次元 brands and stores, such as 潮玩星球 (Chao Wan Xing Qiu) and 三月兽 (San Yue Shou), reflects the industry's shift towards scale and industrialization [19]. - Shopping centers are increasingly transforming into 二次元 hubs, with locations like 天府红 in Chengdu becoming popular destinations for young consumers [14][15].