炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：雪涛宏观笔记 2028年AI末日预言是场完美的头脑风暴，但现实经济是个超级混沌系统。历史反复证明，当逻辑推导 出的远景过于极端时，预言者往往低估了人类看似低效、实则极具韧性的自适应能力。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛 在每个历史节点，都不乏名家对未来的豪迈期待：1930年凯恩斯的《我们孙辈经济的可能性》 （Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren），1932年罗素的《闲暇颂》（In Praise of Idleness）， 1987年索罗的《生产力悖论》（We'd Better Watch Out），以及2013年格雷伯的《胡扯工作》（On the Phenomenon of Bullshit Jobs： A Work Theory）这些在人类智慧殿堂顶层的社科学家都证明了一点：在 重大技术变革面前，人类对于未来社会发展路径往往知之甚少。 2026年是理解AI如何影响宏观经济的关键年份，在"向前看"过程中，需要在逻辑底层上嵌套更多主观判 断，这也是"2028年AI废土世界文学"如此有吸引力的重 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Citrini Research's 2028 AI doomsday prophecy is a perfect brainstorm, but the real - world economy is a super - chaotic system. Prophets often underestimate human beings' self - adaptive ability. There is no reason to be overly pessimistic about the AI era [2][4][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs John Keynes - "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren": Endless Human Desires - Keynes in 1930 predicted that by 2030, living standards would increase 4 - 8 times and humans would work 15 hours a week, similar to Citrini's AI doomsday theory. However, this view underestimates the expansion of human desires. AI may eliminate old jobs, but human desires will create new ones [6] - The AI doomsday theory assumes that humans will stop striving and enjoy leisure passively, which does not conform to social development logic. "Freedom" and "fairness" are the core drivers and ultimate goals of economic development [7][8] Bertrand Russell - "In Praise of Idleness": Leisure as a "Civilization Asset" rather than a "Political Liability" - "In Praise of Idleness" is like the origin of the 2028 AI doomsday prophecy but with a milder tone. The real - world response to technological progress is different from Russell's assumption, and the AI doomsday theory over - worries about the loss of purchasing power due to job loss [9] - Leisure is a "civilization asset" that can be transformed into creativity. The political system will take measures to hedge against high unemployment, and the AI doomsday theory ignores this spontaneous adjustment [10] - Both "In Praise of Idleness" and the AI doomsday theory have flaws, and the resilience of the social structure is stronger than expected [11] Robert Solow - "The Solow Paradox": Inertia of Production Relations - The AI doomsday theory criticizes "The Solow Paradox" and warns that the "invisibility" of technology progress may bring huge impacts. However, historical experience shows that the transformation of technology into productivity is relatively slow, and the so - called "doomsday" will be offset by the "time - lag effect" [12] - The impact of AI on employment and production relations is less significant than macro - factors and the 2020 public health event. Enterprises are complex interest - game entities, and AI may face resistance. Even if production relations change, human participation will become a scarce asset [13] David Graeber - "On the Phenomenon of Bullshit Jobs: A Work Theory": Ending Meaningless Bullshit Jobs - "On the Phenomenon of Bullshit Jobs" directly refutes the AI doomsday theory. AI can be a trigger for efficiency regression by replacing meaningless jobs, rather than a catalyst for social collapse [14] - AI provides an opportunity for re - distribution, forcing society to shift from "job - centered" to "people - centered". The so - called "doomsday" is actually the end of "bullshit jobs" and a shattering of the collective perception of "everyone must be busy" [15]