华尔街吵起来了 原因是这几个字 “AI末日论” 2月末 美股软件板块持续抛售 导火索是这篇文章 《2028全球智能危机》 它的作者Citrini Research 是一个活跃在Substack上的 财经研究机构 文章强调 这不是预测 而只是一个假想场景 但这么一篇“科幻文章” 观点不算新颖 却抹去了千亿美元 为什么 时间快进到2028年6月 美国因为AI 陷入了一场经济危机 原因有四个 第一 AI生成代码的泛滥 软件公司失去护城河 收入塌陷 杠杆收购爆雷 第二 AI agent消灭中间商 机器自动比价、交易、执行 人们不再需要Visa Mastercard、DoorDash 第三 白领就业崩塌 被AI替代 找不到工作 形成恶性循环 消费下降 企业利润压缩 投资更多AI 导致更多裁员 结果就是2028年 美国的失业率超过10% 最后 金融系统传导 SaaS爆雷 今天价值2.5%万亿美元的 私募信贷市场会受到冲击 2027年底 股市暴跌57% Citrini提出 幽灵GDP（Ghost GDP） GDP在增长 实体经济却在收缩 这篇逻辑直白的科幻文章 被华尔街当真了 当然 也有很多反对者认为 “AI末日论”有逻辑 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：雪涛宏观笔记 2028年AI末日预言是场完美的头脑风暴，但现实经济是个超级混沌系统。历史反复证明，当逻辑推导 出的远景过于极端时，预言者往往低估了人类看似低效、实则极具韧性的自适应能力。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛 在每个历史节点，都不乏名家对未来的豪迈期待：1930年凯恩斯的《我们孙辈经济的可能性》 （Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren），1932年罗素的《闲暇颂》（In Praise of Idleness）， 1987年索罗的《生产力悖论》（We'd Better Watch Out），以及2013年格雷伯的《胡扯工作》（On the Phenomenon of Bullshit Jobs： A Work Theory）这些在人类智慧殿堂顶层的社科学家都证明了一点：在 重大技术变革面前，人类对于未来社会发展路径往往知之甚少。 2026年是理解AI如何影响宏观经济的关键年份，在"向前看"过程中，需要在逻辑底层上嵌套更多主观判 断，这也是"2028年AI废土世界文学"如此有吸引力的重 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Citrini Research's 2028 AI doomsday prophecy is a perfect brainstorm, but the real - world economy is a super - chaotic system. Prophets often underestimate human beings' self - adaptive ability. There is no reason to be overly pessimistic about the AI era [2][4][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs John Keynes - "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren": Endless Human Desires - Keynes in 1930 predicted that by 2030, living standards would increase 4 - 8 times and humans would work 15 hours a week, similar to Citrini's AI doomsday theory. However, this view underestimates the expansion of human desires. AI may eliminate old jobs, but human desires will create new ones [6] - The AI doomsday theory assumes that humans will stop striving and enjoy leisure passively, which does not conform to social development logic. "Freedom" and "fairness" are the core drivers and ultimate goals of economic development [7][8] Bertrand Russell - "In Praise of Idleness": Leisure as a "Civilization Asset" rather than a "Political Liability" - "In Praise of Idleness" is like the origin of the 2028 AI doomsday prophecy but with a milder tone. The real - world response to technological progress is different from Russell's assumption, and the AI doomsday theory over - worries about the loss of purchasing power due to job loss [9] - Leisure is a "civilization asset" that can be transformed into creativity. The political system will take measures to hedge against high unemployment, and the AI doomsday theory ignores this spontaneous adjustment [10] - Both "In Praise of Idleness" and the AI doomsday theory have flaws, and the resilience of the social structure is stronger than expected [11] Robert Solow - "The Solow Paradox": Inertia of Production Relations - The AI doomsday theory criticizes "The Solow Paradox" and warns that the "invisibility" of technology progress may bring huge impacts. However, historical experience shows that the transformation of technology into productivity is relatively slow, and the so - called "doomsday" will be offset by the "time - lag effect" [12] - The impact of AI on employment and production relations is less significant than macro - factors and the 2020 public health event. Enterprises are complex interest - game entities, and AI may face resistance. Even if production relations change, human participation will become a scarce asset [13] David Graeber - "On the Phenomenon of Bullshit Jobs: A Work Theory": Ending Meaningless Bullshit Jobs - "On the Phenomenon of Bullshit Jobs" directly refutes the AI doomsday theory. AI can be a trigger for efficiency regression by replacing meaningless jobs, rather than a catalyst for social collapse [14] - AI provides an opportunity for re - distribution, forcing society to shift from "job - centered" to "people - centered". The so - called "doomsday" is actually the end of "bullshit jobs" and a shattering of the collective perception of "everyone must be busy" [15]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang expressed concerns that the "AI apocalypse narrative" is negatively impacting investment in AI, deterring potential investors from entering the market [1][3]. Group 1: AI Narrative and Investment - Huang noted a "narrative war" in the AI sector, with one faction portraying a bleak outlook while another remains optimistic, suggesting that both extremes oversimplify the situation [3]. - He emphasized that the doomsday narratives propagated by respected individuals are causing significant harm, affecting people, industries, and governments [3][4]. - Huang criticized the fear surrounding AI, stating that when 90% of the information focuses on apocalyptic scenarios, it discourages investment in AI, which is essential for making the technology safer, more practical, and beneficial to society [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Perspective - Huang argued that companies should not seek increased regulation from the government, implying that some CEOs may have conflicts of interest that prevent them from advocating for the broader societal good [4]. - He previously opposed claims made by Anthropic's CEO regarding AI potentially replacing half of white-collar jobs within five years, indicating a belief in the positive potential of AI rather than a fear-based approach [4].

本文来自微信公众号：APPSO （ID：appsolution），作者：APPSO，原文标题：《这些硅谷 AI 精 英"疯了"：花光积蓄囤装备逃命，开末日狂欢派对，还给自己挖坑》，题图来自：AI生成 事实也是如此，纽约时报曾报道了身处AI末日论中心的Anthropic，这是一家由前OpenAI员工创立、号 称更注重安全的公司。 报道中提到Anthropic总部的氛围，是一种无处不在的紧张。员工们不担心程序代码出问题，担心的是 自己亲手打造的AI可能会被用来做可怕的、且具有毁灭性的事情。 其中一位员工透露自己常常因为过度忧虑AI而彻夜难眠，另一位员工则是平静地表示，未来十年内， 失控的AI毁灭人类的概率有20%。 在硅谷，有一个越来越常见的社交问题，你的p(doom)是多少？ P(doom)指的是AI导致人类世界末日的概率，这个数字越高，意味着AI带来世界末日的时间 越近。 听起来有点难以相信，但它确实已经成了技术圈最热门的谈资。 Anthropic的CEO Dario Amodei给出的答案是10%到25%之间。 之前担任了五分钟的OpenAI CEO Emmett Shear估计是5%~50%。 深度学习教 ...