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一次共识强烈的降息:投资要点:
Huafu Securities· 2025-09-22 12:48
Group 1 - The report indicates a strong consensus on interest rate cuts, with the market experiencing fluctuations and an overall decline of -0.18% during the week of September 15-19. The ChiNext Index, STAR 50, and Shenzhen Component Index led the gains, while micro-cap stocks and the Shanghai 50 Index faced declines. Advanced manufacturing and technology sectors showed strength, while pharmaceuticals, finance, and real estate lagged behind [2][10][14]. - The report highlights a decrease in the stock-bond yield spread to 0.5%, which is below the +1 standard deviation threshold, indicating a rise in valuation dispersion. Market sentiment has improved, but the intensity of industry rotation has decreased [3][22][23]. - The report notes that the average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect increased by 120 billion yuan compared to the previous week, with a significant net inflow of 476 billion yuan into leveraged funds, primarily in the electronics, non-bank financials, and electric equipment sectors [3][35][32]. Group 2 - Industry hotspots include Huawei's announcement of a three-year development roadmap for its Ascend AI chips, emphasizing self-sufficiency and accelerated development. Additionally, the Meta Connect conference showcased new AI glasses, indicating a growing trend in AI applications [4][44][45]. - The report suggests a favorable outlook for the Hang Seng Technology sector, driven by the appreciation of the yuan and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The report recommends focusing on AI core assets within this sector [4][49]. - The report discusses the potential for growth in the energy storage sector, supported by favorable market conditions and the narrative surrounding solid-state batteries. It also highlights the accelerating pace of satellite internet development and the upcoming opportunities in commercial aerospace [4][49].