1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The core game between nickel and stainless steel lies in Indonesia's nickel policies. The market has different expectations for these policies, leading to a confrontation between secondary market funds and industrial funds on the trading floor [1]. - For nickel, the high inventory and the increase in supply elasticity after profit repair coexist with the divergence in market expectations for Indonesia's nickel policies. In the short - term quota policy vacuum period, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the direction of price movement depends on the dynamics of Indonesia's quota policies [4][5]. - For stainless steel, it is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation in the off - season putting pressure. The cost logic has raised the bottom space of the stainless - steel price range. In the short term, it is expected to move in a range, and the breakthrough in direction also depends on the dynamics of Indonesia's quota policies [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Indonesia Nickel Policy Events - **Quota Event**: Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry may adjust the nickel ore quota to 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. If the target quota is implemented, it may lead to a shortage in the ore end, forcing the smelting end to cut production, and changing the surplus expectation to a shortage [1]. - **Associated Mineral Event**: Indonesia wants to include associated minerals such as cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. If cobalt is priced, the direct cost of pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy may increase by about 5% - 10% [2]. - **Conflict Event**: Many Indonesian enterprises are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land. The IMIP park's port storage and logistics are reported to have monopoly behavior. These events may increase the smelting cost and cause concerns about resource supply [2]. - **Other Events**: In early 2026, Vale suspended its nickel - mining business, but later resumed normal operations after obtaining part of the mining quota approval. This may indicate that Indonesia may favor leading enterprises and hydrometallurgy projects [3]. 3.2 Market Quotes - **Nickel**: Overseas news is continuous, and there is a game between hedging and speculative funds. The high inventory and the increase in supply elasticity after profit repair coexist with the divergence in market expectations for Indonesia's nickel policies. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to consider options and pay attention to structural trading opportunities [4][5]. - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by the off - season and weak demand, stainless - steel production in February decreased to 2580000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3% and a month - on - month decrease of 23%. The cost logic has raised the bottom space of the price range, and in the short term, it is expected to move in a range [6]. 3.3 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On January 30, China's social inventory increased by 6622 tons to 69238 tons, with an increase of 10.58%. LME nickel inventory increased by 2556 tons to 286284 tons [7]. - **New Energy**: On January 30, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines increased by 0, 2, and 0 months - on - month to 5, 9, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory increased by 0.1 months - on - month to 13.1 days, and the ternary material inventory increased by 0.1 months - on - month to 7.0 days [7]. - **Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel**: On January 29, the total inventory of SMM nickel - iron industry chain decreased by 10% months - on - month to 121000 metal tons. In December, the stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.48 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. On January 29, the stainless - steel social inventory was 952674 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.37% [7]. 3.4 Market News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing "restricted products" [8]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products since January 1, 2026 [8]. - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula of nickel ore products and start treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [8]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [9]. - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines for illegal occupation of forest land and are negotiating with the government [9]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry will adjust the nickel production quota according to industry demand, and the production may be around 250 - 260 million tons [9]. - The IMIP park in Indonesia is reported to have monopoly behavior in port storage and logistics and is negotiating with the relevant department [9]. - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way to Yangjiang, China [10]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget [10]. - Solvay Investment Group plans to restart its nickel - mining business in Guatemala in a few months [10]. 3.5 Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as prices and spreads of related products in the industrial chain, such as 1 imported nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and 304 stainless - steel coils [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on nickel is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the second half of 2025, uncertain events such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and overseas tariff policies will disrupt the market. Domestic policy support is expected to increase, and macro - sentiment will still have a phased impact on nickel prices. Fundamentally, the oversupply pattern of primary nickel is hard to change, the negative feedback from demand is intensifying, and the bottom - seeking process of nickel prices continues. If the support from the ore end weakens, it may drive the valuation of nickel prices further down. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel (which fluctuates with ore prices) can be used as a reference for the lower - end valuation. However, be vigilant about the impact of Indonesian policies and macro - news on nickel prices. In terms of operations, look for opportunities to build short positions on price rallies and use combination strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options to increase returns, while controlling risks [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of 2025, nickel prices first rose and then declined, with the price center shifting down. In the first quarter, policies in nickel - resource countries stimulated price increases, while in the second quarter, trade conflicts weakened demand expectations, and the oversupply situation intensified, leading to a sharp decline in nickel prices. As of June 27, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel contract was 120,480 yuan/ton, down 3.22% from the beginning of the year, and the LME nickel price at 15:00 was $15,195/ton, down 1.1% from the beginning of the year [7] 3.2 Macro - analysis 3.2.1 Overseas - The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm remains uncertain. At the June meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but the economic outlook shows concerns about "stagflation" in the US economy. The impact of tariff policies on inflation has not yet emerged. The Fed's dot plot shows a 50bp interest - rate cut this year, but more officials prefer not to cut rates. The Fed has also downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and raised its inflation and unemployment rate forecasts. The impact of tariffs on US inflation has not fully manifested yet, but there is still an upward risk of inflation in the second half of the year [12][13][20] 3.2.2 Domestic - The domestic economy is running steadily, but there are still pressures for stable growth. In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded, and new export orders increased after the Sino - US economic and trade talks. However, due to the repeated US tariff policies, there is still a risk of decline in external demand. In terms of imports and exports, exports increased year - on - year in May, but the growth rate slowed down, and imports declined. In terms of credit, the social financing and credit data in May improved slightly, but the financial data has not yet shown strong momentum. It is expected that the central bank may continue to cut interest rates, and fiscal policy will further strengthen in the second half of the year [23][24][26] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - side - **Indonesian Ore End**: The PNBP policy in Indonesia has increased the cost of nickel ore sales and use, and the policy may accelerate the clearance of some high - cost production capacities. The supply gap of Indonesian nickel ore can be supplemented by importing from the Philippines. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore is relatively firm, but the demand negative feedback may affect the ore price, and the downward space for high - grade ore prices is limited. In the first half of 2025, China's nickel ore imports decreased year - on - year, and port inventories showed a seasonal decline [29][32][40] - **Nickel Iron**: China's nickel iron production continued to decline year - on - year in the first five months of 2025. In Indonesia, new pyrometallurgical projects were put into production in the first half of the year, and the production of nickel iron increased year - on - year, but there were some production cuts due to cost - price inversion. In the second half of the year, the contraction of stainless steel production may affect the demand for nickel iron, and the profit of Indonesian iron plants may be under pressure. The number of Indonesian nickel iron projects to be put into production in the second half of the year has decreased compared with previous years [43][44] - **Nickel Intermediate Products**: In the first five months of 2025, the import of nickel hydrometallurgical intermediate products and nickel matte increased year - on - year, but the growth rate of intermediate products slowed down. The production of Indonesian MHP increased significantly year - on - year, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased year - on - year. In the second half of the year, more attention should be paid to the commissioning of wet - process projects [51][54][55] - **Pure Nickel**: In the first five months of 2025, China's refined nickel production continued to climb, but the growth rate slowed down. Both imports and exports of refined nickel increased significantly. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel and high - grade nickel matte has increased, and the cost range of integrated electrowon nickel will be the focus of pure - nickel valuation in the second half of the year [59][64][67] 3.3.2 Demand - side - **Stainless Steel**: In the first five months of 2025, China's stainless steel production increased year - on - year, and in June, Tsingshan reduced production. In Indonesia, stainless steel production increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year, but production is expected to decline in the third quarter. The apparent consumption of stainless steel increased year - on - year, but the terminal demand is weak. The export of stainless steel increased year - on - year in the first five months, but the impact of tariffs on exports is gradually emerging. It is estimated that the annual demand growth rate of stainless steel is about 3% [69][74] - **Nickel Sulfate**: In the first five months of 2025, China's nickel sulfate production decreased year - on - year. The MHP coefficient remained firm due to the supply disruption of cobalt. The production and sales of new energy vehicles remained high, but the proportion of ternary batteries in power - battery loading continued to be low, which had a negative impact on nickel demand. The consumption of nickel in alloy and special steel increased year - on - year, with a growth rate of 3.6% in the first five months [80][84][88]