Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated August 21, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The conflict between reality and expectations intensifies, amplifying the volatility of the futures market [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is boosted [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted [2][14]. Summary by Categories Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,930 yuan, down 400 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day [4]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 63,676 lots, a decrease of 1 lot from the previous day, while the stainless - steel main contract had a trading volume of 149,736 lots, an increase of 15,654 lots from the previous day [4]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff disputes. An Indonesian nickel - iron project has entered the trial - production phase, and there are environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period and has adjusted the 2025 production target. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [4][5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040 yuan, down 6,540 yuan from the previous day, and the 2511 contract closed at 80,980 yuan, down 6,560 yuan from the previous day [10]. - The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 55,748 lots, an increase of 27,298 lots from the previous day, and the 2511 contract had a trading volume of 838,879 lots, an increase of 103,950 lots from the previous day [10]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,752 yuan/ton, down 189 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In July, lithium ore imports were 75.07 million tons, a 30.35% increase from the previous month [10][11]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract for polysilicon closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan from the previous day [14]. - The trading volume of the Si2511 contract was 561,795 lots, an increase of 123,482 lots from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract had a trading volume of 704,931 lots, an increase of 124,324 lots from the previous day [14]. Macro and Industry News - In July 2025, China's industrial silicon exports totaled 74,006.174 tons to 50 countries/regions, with an average price of 9,219.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.74 yuan/ton from the previous month [14]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply - side disturbances are recurring, and it will oscillate with an upward bias [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is strong, leading to amplified fluctuations in the futures market [2][13]. - Polysilicon: There are increasing news - related disturbances this week [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, down 600 yuan from the previous day; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,010 yuan, down 15 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 87,649 lots, a decrease of 14,608 lots, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 143,960 lots, a decrease of 16,602 lots [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are various events such as potential nickel export suspension from Canada, new nickel - iron production in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in mining quota policies, production suspensions due to losses, and steel mill overhauls in China [4][5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 86,920 yuan, up 1,780 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 39,934 lots, a decrease of 22,135 lots, and the open interest was 89,649 lots, a decrease of 8,414 lots [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and there were changes in the global tablet and smartphone shipments [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 8,805 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the PS2511 contract closed at 52,740 yuan/ton, up 2,310 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, price, profit, and inventory data [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Xining held a photovoltaic industry patent navigation project kick - off meeting to strengthen the photovoltaic industry [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel price: Under the fundamental logic, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the long - term logic is under pressure. However, there are frequent developments in Indonesia, so it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of news - driven stimulation. The global refined nickel's visible inventory is gradually increasing, which drags down the upside of the nickel price. The long - term low - cost supply increase may change the cost curve. In the short - term and for the second half of the year, the nickel price valuation is at the boundary of the nickel - iron conversion path. The relaxation of high inventory in the nickel - iron segment slightly boosts the upside of the nickel price, but the amplitude is limited. The decrease in the fire - method cash cost is about 2%, and it is still difficult for the price to drop sharply. The hype of nickel - ore contradictions may decline, restricting the price elasticity. Also, beware of potential policies in Indonesia, such as cracking down on illegal mining, changing the RKAB approval cycle, and the APNI's suggestion to re - evaluate the nickel - ore HPM formula [1]. - Stainless - steel price: The pressure in the real - world market needs to be continuously alleviated, and the steel price will fluctuate. The bullish logic focuses on the moderate decline of high inventory levels, with social inventory decreasing slightly for five consecutive weeks and factory inventory pressure easing in July. There are also some structural production cuts on the supply side. The bearish view is based on actual supply - demand, as the pressure relief needs to be sustainable, and the supply elasticity may limit the upside. The profit from warehouse delivery has narrowed to 2%. The stainless - steel production plan for August shows marginal increases, but the year - on - year growth is limited [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis Nickel - The global refined nickel's visible inventory is gradually increasing, dragging down the nickel price. The long - term low - cost supply increase may change the cost curve. In the short - term and for the second half of the year, the nickel price valuation is at the boundary of the nickel - iron conversion path. The relaxation of high inventory in the nickel - iron segment slightly boosts the upside of the nickel price, but the amplitude is limited. The decrease in the fire - method cash cost is about 2%, and it is still difficult for the price to drop sharply. The hype of nickel - ore contradictions may decline, restricting the price elasticity. Be vigilant against potential policies in Indonesia [1]. Stainless Steel - The bullish logic focuses on the moderate decline of high inventory levels, with social inventory decreasing slightly for five consecutive weeks and factory inventory pressure easing in July. There are also some structural production cuts on the supply side. The bearish view is based on actual supply - demand, as the pressure relief needs to be sustainable, and the supply elasticity may limit the upside. The profit from warehouse delivery has narrowed to 2%. The stainless - steel production plan for August shows marginal increases, but the year - on - year growth is limited [2]. 3.2 Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,963 tons to 41,286 tons, with warehouse - receipt inventory increasing by 1,520 tons to 22,141 tons, spot inventory increasing by 443 tons to 13,755 tons, and bonded - area inventory remaining unchanged at 5,390 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons [3][4]. - The nickel - iron inventory in mid - August was 33,111 tons, a 1% decrease from the previous half - month and a 45% increase year - on - year. The inventory pressure is high but has slightly eased [5]. - On August 14, 2025, the total stainless - steel social inventory was 1,078,900 tons, a 2.48% decrease from the previous week. Cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 610,718 tons, a 1.93% decrease, and hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 468,182 tons, a 3.19% decrease [5]. - The nickel - ore inventory at 14 ports in China increased by 618,200 wet tons to 10,951,600 wet tons, with 10,680,000 wet tons from the Philippines. By grade, low - nickel high - iron ore was 6,089,500 wet tons, and medium - and high - grade nickel ore was 4,862,100 wet tons [5]. 3.3 Market News - In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial - production stage, with an annual metal - nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [6]. - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the relevant department may fine the verified illegal companies and conduct an audit of the entire park [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining - quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies [6]. - The APNI revealed that the government - approved 2025 RKAB production target is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [7]. - Two nickel - iron smelting industrial parks in Indonesia have suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. - Indonesia's ESDM requires mining and coal - mining companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - A steel mill in Shandong started maintenance due to capacity restrictions, reducing the supply of hot - rolled coils and suspending long - term supply - agreement deliveries in August [8]. - The Indonesian president stated that they will crack down on illegal mining and have received reports on 1,063 illegal mines [9]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, price differentials, and other indicators of nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as the prices of related products in the industrial chain, such as nickel imports, nickel - iron, stainless - steel products, high - carbon ferrochrome, and battery - grade nickel sulfate [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range based on fundamental logic, but there is a need to be vigilant about risks from news. The long - term supply increase may affect the cost curve, while short - term relative valuation slightly boosts the upside space. The fire - method cash cost has decreased by about 2%, and deep drops are still difficult [4]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price will oscillate as there is a game between macro expectations and reality. Bulls focus on inventory reduction and supply - side adjustments, while bears are concerned about weak reality and supply elasticity. The 8 - month production shows marginal changes, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level [5]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The short - term long - short logic is divergent, and the market is affected by various factors. It is advisable to short at high positions and take profit at low positions [30][34]. - Polysilicon: With more event disturbances next week, the strategy is to go long on dips. Policy and market factors dominate, and the market is waiting for the results of the Huadian Group's component procurement project [30][34][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: Due to weak supply and strong demand, the price is expected to strengthen. Supply is affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improves in August. The price is likely to remain strong for about a month [63][64][65]. - Palm Oil: With strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on pullbacks [2][79]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans have gained support, and attention should be paid to the procurement progress in the fourth quarter [2][79]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010 yuan. The trading volume of both showed certain changes [14]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1963 tons to 41,286 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons. The nickel - iron inventory and stainless - steel social inventory also had corresponding changes [6][7][8]. - **Market News**: There were various news events such as potential export restrictions from Canada, project start - ups in Indonesia, and environmental issues in industrial parks [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon futures oscillated, and the，现货价格有所上涨；多晶硅期货宽幅震荡，现货成交未起色。工业硅周五收于8805元/吨，多晶硅周五盘面收于52740元/吨 [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's weekly industry inventory decreased slightly, with production increasing marginally. Polysilicon's short - term production remained high, and the upstream inventory increased. The demand for both showed certain trends [31][32][33]. - **Trading Strategies**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high positions and take profit at low positions. For polysilicon, the strategy is to go long on dips, and there are also suggestions for arbitrage and hedging [34][35][36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movements**: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 86,920 yuan/ton, up 10,280 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose to 82,700 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply was affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improved in August with an increase in cathode material production. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [64]. - **Outlook**: The lithium price is expected to remain strong for about a month due to supply disturbances and improved demand [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: The palm oil 01 contract rose 5.11% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.74% [79]. - **Driving Factors**: The MPOB and USDA reports were unexpectedly bullish for palm oil, and the USDA report on soybeans provided support for soybean oil [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel**: Expected to trade in a narrow range. Mine - end support weakens, and smelting - end logic limits price elasticity. Long - term low - cost supply may impact the cost curve, but short - term prices are difficult to fall deeply yet face an upper limit. Consider interval trading and double - sell option strategies [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: Intensified multi - short battle, with prices expected to oscillate. Bulls focus on inventory decline and policy uncertainties, while bears focus on weak reality and short - term valuation [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term trend follows coking coal. Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before large - scale resumption, the market may follow coking coal, but the fundamental trend is downward [28][32]. - **Polysilicon**: Market sentiment cools down, and there is a callback drive. Policy factors dominate, and short - term prices may decline. The market is expected to be volatile in the third quarter [28][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The shutdown of Jianxiaowo mine is expected to drive prices up. Before overseas supply fills the gap, prices will remain upward. Otherwise, pay attention to project resumption [54][56]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,180 yuan/ton. The inventory of refined nickel in China decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [6][7][13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,985 yuan/ton. The total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,106,304 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.44% [5][8][13]. Supply and Demand - **Nickel**: Mine - end support weakens, and long - term low - cost supply may change the cost curve. The inventory of nickel pig iron decreased marginally, and the price was revised upwards [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply side has some structural production cuts, and the inventory pressure has slightly eased. However, the actual supply elasticity and high inventory still limit price increases [5]. Market News - Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; and Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price was 8,710 yuan/ton, and the spot price declined. Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia's 99 - grade silicon prices decreased [28]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price closed at 50,790 yuan/ton, rising first and then falling. The spot market showed no significant improvement [28]. Supply and Demand - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply increased as factories in the southwest and northwest resumed production. The industry inventory shifted from destocking to restocking [29]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply increased as some factories resumed production, and the upstream inventory started to accumulate. The demand side saw a marginal increase in silicon wafer production [30][31]. Future Outlook - **Industrial Silicon**: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before large - scale resumption, the price may follow coking coal, but the long - term trend is downward [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy factors dominate, and there is a short - term callback drive. Consider positive spreads for PS2511/PS2512 and recommend selling hedging for upstream factories [32][34][35]. Lithium Carbonate Market Conditions - The futures prices of 2509 and 2511 contracts increased significantly, and the spot price also rose. The basis changed from positive to negative [54]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Australian lithium concentrate shipments to China increased, and Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China grew [55]. - Demand: The new - energy vehicle market continued to recover, and the energy - storage bidding scale increased [55]. - Inventory: The total social inventory increased, with upstream destocking and downstream restocking [55]. Future Outlook - The shutdown of the Jianxiaowo mine is expected to drive prices up. The futures price is expected to range from 75,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton. Consider reverse spreads and selling hedging [56][57][58].

2025 年 8 月 10 日 端涉辑限 駒. 冶炼 空博弈加剧,钢价震荡运 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 张再宇 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 增加 437 吨至 12014 吨，保税区库存减少 400 吨至 5190 吨。LME 镍库存增加 5160 吨至 209082 吨。 2）有色网 7 月底镍铁库存 33415 吨，月环比-10%,同比+56%, 库存压力偏高，边际稍有缓和。 报告导读: 沪線基本面:预计镍价窄幅震荡运行,关注区间操作和双卖期权策略。矿端支撑逻辑削弱,冶炼瑞逻 辑限制弹性。全球精炼镍显性库存趋势回归温和增加,对镍价上方形成拖累,长远端的低成本供应增量预 期可能会动摇成本曲线格局,不过,下半年成本曲线仍暂时参照火法一体化路径,因此短线線价或呈现出 深跌有难度,但上方存在压制的格局。从相对估值来看,短线镍铁环节库存高位有所松动,带动价格底部 轻微上修,从转产经济性的角度稍微提振镍价上方空间,但是幅度有限。整体而言,基本面矛盾不够凸显, 弹性有限,盘面边际跟随板块的宏观情绪变化。多头主要关注点在于矿端,配额增加向矿端价格传导,但 整体跌幅相对温和,火法现金成本下移 2%左 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the multi - empty game intensifies, and the nickel price fluctuates narrowly. The fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the disk margin follows the macro - sentiment change [4]. - For stainless steel, the macro factor fades, and it returns to the fundamentals. The steel price fluctuates at a low level [5]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption progress of upstream factories. The market is trading the upstream resumption expectation, and the disk has short - term fluctuations [27][32]. - For polysilicon, it may have a short - term correction, and it is recommended to hold positions cautiously. The policy market dominates, but there is still a short - term correction drive [27][33]. - For lithium carbonate, the'movement - style anti - involution' cools down. Pay attention to the progress of the approval of mining certificates in Jiangxi. The price is under pressure, and the unilateral price will fluctuate widely [61][64]. - For palm oil, the macro - sentiment fades, and it may have a short - term pullback. The market is trading the de - stocking market in the second half of the year, but the current price may not match the fundamentals [86][87]. - For soybean oil, it lacks effective driving forces. Pay attention to the results of the China - US negotiations [86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - Nickel: The influence of the macro - sentiment on the nickel market is marginal, and the fundamentals determine the elasticity. The contradiction at the ore end fades, and the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range oscillation judgment. The global refined nickel inventory increases moderately, and the short - term nickel price has a limited decline but is suppressed above [4]. - Stainless steel: The macro factor fades, and it returns to the fundamentals. The 8 - month production schedule shows a marginal increase, and the nickel - iron price is revised upwards. The inventory has decreased moderately, but it is still higher than last year [5]. - **Inventory Changes** - Nickel: The Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreases, the LME nickel inventory increases, the nickel - iron inventory has high - level destocking, and the Chinese port nickel - ore inventory increases [6][7][8]. - Stainless steel: The national stainless - steel social total inventory decreases weekly, with different trends in cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [8]. - **Market News** - There are news about the potential export suspension of nickel from Canada to the US, the trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and the adjustment of the mining quota period in Indonesia [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial silicon: The futures price shows a weak oscillation, and the spot price drops. The Xinjiang 99 - silicon and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon prices decline [27]. - Polysilicon: The futures price rises and then falls, and the spot trading is weak [27]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals** - Industrial silicon: The supply side has a marginal increase in production, and the overall industry inventory continues to be destocked. The demand side has stable short - term demand [28][29]. - Polysilicon: The supply side has an increase in short - term production, and the upstream inventory is destocked. The demand side has a slight increase in silicon wafer production, but the price transmission is not smooth [29][31]. - **后市观点** - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The increase in futures warehouse receipts may affect the market sentiment [32]. - Polysilicon: The policy market dominates, but there is a short - term correction drive. Pay attention to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [33]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The futures contract price drops significantly, and the spot price also decreases. The basis and the spread between contracts change [61]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals** - Supply: The lithium concentrate price drops, and the production of lithium carbonate decreases, mainly due to the reduction of mica and salt - lake enterprises [62]. - Demand: The downstream procurement willingness increases, but the absolute demand is still lower than expected [62]. - Inventory: The total social inventory of lithium carbonate decreases, with upstream destocking and downstream inventory accumulation [63]. - **后市观点** - The'movement - style anti - involution' expectation is broken, and the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the progress of the approval of mining certificates in Jiangxi [64]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: The domestic macro - sentiment pushes the price to a three - year high, but the lack of downstream demand makes it difficult to continue rising [86]. - Soybean oil: The large number of export orders stimulates trading enthusiasm, and the soybean - palm oil price spread narrows [86]. - **This Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: The MPOB report's negative impact is digested, and the market trades the de - stocking market. Malaysia may continue to accumulate inventory in July, and Indonesia's production recovery may be lower than expected. The international oil market may have a systemic upward trend, and the palm oil price is relatively resistant to decline [87]. - Soybean oil: It lacks effective driving forces, and it is necessary to pay attention to the results of the China - US negotiations [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine its elasticity. Nickel prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The contradiction at the mine end has faded, and the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range fluctuation judgment. Stainless steel is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern, with macro hype sentiment fading and the influence of actual verification increasing [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: After the contradiction at the nickel mine end fades, the smelting end logic suggests a narrow - range fluctuation. The premium of Indonesian nickel mines has回调, and the cash cost of pyrometallurgy has decreased by 1.4%. The global visible inventory of refined nickel shows a mild increasing trend, and the expected increase in low - cost supply in the long - term still drags down the market. However, the de - stocking of nickel - iron inventory at a high level slightly boosts the nickel price valuation [1]. - **Macro Factors**: Domestically, the Politburo meeting emphasizes implementing previous supportive measures, and the market valuation may回调 marginally. Overseas, the weakening US dollar supports non - ferrous metals but suppresses industrial external demand expectations [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [3][4]. Stainless Steel Market - **Production Arrangement**: In August, the stainless - steel production arrangement is 3.23 million tons, with a marginal increase of 0% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year increase has slightly declined to 2.1%. In Indonesia, the August production arrangement is 440,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth is 1.2% [2]. - **Cost and Profit**: The nickel - iron price has been revised up to 920 yuan/line, and the cash cost of stainless - steel billets is about 12,584 yuan/ton. The warehousing profit has回调 from a high of 3.0% to 1.4% [2]. - **Inventory**: After the production cut in June - July, the stainless - steel inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of about 5%, but it is still 5% higher than last year. The nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 10% month - on - month but is 56% higher year - on - year, which may drag down the steel price [2][5]. Market News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6]. - China Enfi's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per single line [6]. - Environmental violations have been found in Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park, and possible fines may be imposed on verified illegal companies [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6][7]. - The production of some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia has been suspended due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,770, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,840 [8]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 106,856, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 124,683 [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel are characterized by the resonance of macro and news factors, while the real - world fundamentals limit its price elasticity. The fundamentals of stainless steel show that macro expectations boost the market, but the actual supply - demand situation still exerts a drag. The price of nickel and stainless steel is expected to show an oscillatory pattern [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamentals - Macro and news factors improve market sentiment, with policies potentially adjusting the structure and optimizing supply. The Indonesian APNI Association suggests re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore, which may increase smelting costs. However, the support from the ore end has weakened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity of nickel prices. The negative feedback in July has affected the supply side, and the acceptance of high smelting prices in the ternary sector is low [1]. Stainless Steel Fundamentals - U.S. tariffs suppress the terminal demand for stainless steel, but domestic policy expectations boost the market. The real - world supply - demand situation has turned into a double - weak state, with weekly inventory slightly decreasing. The production schedule in July shows a decline in China and an increase in Indonesia. The high - cost cash cost of Indonesian stainless steel has decreased, and the high inventory of nickel - iron pressures its valuation [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,674 tons to 38,979 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons. The mid - July nickel - iron inventory was 37,534 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 50% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. On July 17, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 1.69% week - on - week. China's port nickel ore inventory increased by 518,700 wet tons to 9.4836 million wet tons [3][4][6]. Market News - There are various events such as the potential halt of nickel exports from Ontario to the U.S., the successful trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, the resumption of production of a nickel smelter, the shutdown and maintenance of a cold - rolling mill, the removal of the raw ore export ban in the Philippines, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, the plan to shorten the mining quota period in Indonesia, and the suspension of production of some nickel - iron EF lines due to losses [7][8][9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and related price differences of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as prices and spreads in the industrial chain such as electrolytic nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless steel products [11].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 6, 2025 [1][4][30][56] - Report Type: Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly Report on Green Finance and New Energy [1] - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [2][4][30][56] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Core View: Nickel prices may be under pressure at low levels, with a slight downward cost expectation and limited upside potential [4] - Fundamental Analysis: The support at the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices. The cost of the pyrometallurgical path remains high in July, but the premium of Indonesian nickel ore has marginally declined. The market sentiment regarding increased Indonesian quotas has eased, and the speculation sentiment has cooled down. The smelting end, including stainless steel production cuts and nickel-iron inventory accumulation, may limit the upside space of refined nickel [4] - Inventory Changes: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,429 tons to 38,020 tons, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,824 tons to 202,470 tons. The nickel-iron inventory at the end of June reached a historical high, with a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 66% and 8%, respectively [6][7] - Market News: There were various news events related to nickel, including potential export restrictions from Canada, new project production in Indonesia, and the resumption of production at a nickel smelter [10] Stainless Steel - Core View: The supply and demand of stainless steel are weak, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5] - Fundamental Analysis: The short-term off-season demand is weak, and the negative feedback from the US tariff increase on steel products has been transmitted to the supply side. The production in July decreased year-on-year and month-on-month, while the inventory decreased slightly. The cost of stainless steel has decreased, and the profit margin has been slightly repaired [5] - Inventory Changes: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 0.20% week-on-week, with the cold-rolled and hot-rolled inventories decreasing by 0.53% and 0.18%, respectively [7] Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Core View: The upside space of industrial silicon is limited, and a short-selling strategy is recommended [30][34] - Price Trend: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated widely this week, while the spot price increased [30] - Supply and Demand: The industry inventory decreased this week. The production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased due to the wet season, while the production in Xinjiang decreased. The futures warehouse receipts decreased, and the overall industry inventory continued to decline [31] - Market Outlook: The upside space of industrial silicon is limited due to the lack of policy support and the slowdown in warehouse receipt reduction. A short-selling strategy is recommended [34] Polysilicon - Core View: It is recommended to hold positions cautiously and pay attention to policy announcements [30][35] - Price Trend: The polysilicon futures price increased significantly this week, and the spot price also rose [30] - Supply and Demand: The upstream inventory of polysilicon continued to accumulate, and the terminal demand declined. The silicon wafer production decreased, and the enterprises planned to raise prices [32][33] - Market Outlook: The market is trading on the policy expectation of "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry. It is recommended to wait for policy details and hold positions cautiously [35] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate - Core View: The profit margin of the lithium carbonate futures market has opened up, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure [56] - Price Trend: The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated upward this week, while the spot price increased [56] - Supply and Demand: The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain high due to the increase in lithium ore prices and the profitability of external ore procurement. The demand is expected to weaken due to the "anti-involution" policy and the reduction of new energy subsidies in the US [57][58] - Market Outlook: It is recommended to short-sell on rallies, with the price of the 2507 contract expected to range between 55,000 and 65,000 yuan/ton [59]