1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the short - term is affected by the departure of pre - holiday funds, and the mid - line contradiction lies in Indonesian policies. The market is mainly trading on the expectation of Indonesian nickel ore policies, while the fundamentals mainly limit the price elasticity. There is a possibility of a secondary price increase after the Spring Festival if the approval volume by March is lower than expected [4][5]. - For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward. The overall trend follows that of nickel and other non - ferrous metals. The uncertainty is increased by news such as Indonesian quotas, associated product pricing, and mining violation fines. The market's directional breakthrough depends on the dynamics of Indonesian quota policies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Key Events - **Quota Event**: Indonesia is still in the process of approving nickel ore quotas, with a target of 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. Some enterprises have obtained quotas, but the amount is currently lower than in previous years. There are differences in expectations between the secondary market and the industry regarding Indonesian policies, leading to a game on the futures market. If the annual target quota is implemented, it may reverse the oversupply expectation to a shortage [1]. - **Associated Mineral Event**: Indonesia intends to include associated minerals like cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. This may increase the ore - purchasing cost of the smelting end by about 5% - 10%. However, if the increased cost can be passed on to downstream cobalt products, the impact on the nickel wet - process cost will be limited [2]. - **Conflict Event**: Multiple enterprises in Indonesia are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegally occupying forest land. The negotiation process of the fines is worthy of attention as it may indirectly lead to higher ore prices and smelting costs. There are also issues of monopoly in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park, indicating stricter supervision [2]. - **Other Events**: In early 2026, Vale suspended its nickel mining business but later resumed normal operations after obtaining partial mining quotas. It is speculated that Indonesia may favor leading enterprises and wet - process projects [3]. Market Views - **Shanghai Nickel**: The departure of pre - holiday funds has an impact. The macro - environment has cooled the sentiment of non - ferrous metals. The market risk preference may decrease, and there is a risk of further capital withdrawal. The current fundamentals of nickel are not strong, with high inventory and marginal inventory accumulation. The industry tends to sell at high prices for hedging. The price is mainly determined by the expectation of Indonesian nickel ore policies. There is a possibility of a price increase after the festival if the policy approval is not as expected [4][5]. - **Stainless Steel**: The overall trend follows that of nickel and other non - ferrous metals. The uncertainty is increased by various news. If the quota policy is implemented, it may support ferronickel. The cost of stainless steel has increased, and the cost support center has shifted upward. In February, the production schedule has decreased, and there is a seasonal inventory accumulation expectation. The market needs to focus on the dynamics of Indonesian quota policies [6]. Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On February 6, China's social inventory increased by 1191 tons to 70429 tons, with an increase in warehouse receipt inventory and a decrease in spot inventory. The LME nickel inventory decreased by 1002 tons to 285282 tons [7]. - **New Energy**: On February 6, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines remained the same month - on - month. The precursor inventory increased by 0.2 days to 13.3 days, and the ternary material inventory increased by 0.3 days to 7.2 days [7]. - **Ferronickel - Stainless Steel**: On February 5, the full - industrial - chain inventory of SMM ferronickel decreased by 11% month - on - month to 11.9 million metal tons. In January, the stainless steel factory inventory was 1.5 million tons, with a year - on - month and month - on - month increase of 4% and 1% respectively. On February 5, the stainless steel social inventory was 964960 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.29% [7]. Market News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain products through the OSS platform [8]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products since January 1, 2026 [8]. - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [8]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [10]. - Multiple enterprises in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegally occupying forest land, and the final fine amount may be lower than the initial estimate [10]. - Indonesia will adjust the 2026 nickel ore production quota according to industry demand, with the production possibly ranging from 250 million to 260 million tons [10]. - The IMIP park in Indonesia is facing issues of monopoly in port storage and logistics and is in negotiation [10]. - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way to Yangjiang, China [11]. - Indonesia has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget [11]. - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [11]. - Indonesia's investment department reported that a subsidiary of Tsingshan Holding Group has not submitted an investment activity report [12]. Weekly Key Data Tracking of Nickel and Stainless Steel The report provides data on futures prices, trading volumes, product prices, and spreads of nickel and stainless steel, including the closing prices, trading volumes of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, prices of various nickel and stainless steel products, and relevant spreads [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. The impact of weak real - time demand is limited, and supply disruption concerns continue to drive up base metals. Opportunities for low - buying and long - positions in copper, aluminum, and tin are worth attention. In the long term, with the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and ongoing supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin, there is an expected tightening in supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情观点 - **Copper**: Supply contraction expectations are strong, and copper prices are expected to remain at a high level. The macro - environment of loose liquidity supports copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply of refined copper is expected to contract. Although terminal demand is weak and inventory is accumulating, the supply - demand for copper is expected to tighten [7]. - **Alumina**: Cost support is not very effective, and alumina prices are still under pressure. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the actual supply contraction is insufficient. The market is in a strong inventory - building trend, and raw material prices are weak. The cost support is average, and there is pressure on the upper side of the price [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: With optimistic capital sentiment, aluminum prices have risen significantly. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, domestic operating capacity and utilization rates are high, and there are constraints on medium - term supply. On the demand side, high aluminum prices have suppressed demand to some extent, and inventory has increased. In the short term, the positive macro - outlook and expected tightening of supply - demand suggest that aluminum prices will remain in a strong - side oscillation. In the medium term, the price center is expected to rise [11][12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support is strong, and the market has risen significantly. The cost support from tight scrap aluminum supply is solid. Supply is restricted by factors such as raw material shortages and profit inversions. Demand is currently based on rigid needs, and the medium - term demand is expected to improve. With cost support and stable supply - demand, prices are expected to remain in a strong - side oscillation in the short and medium terms [13][14]. - **Zinc**: The import ore TC has not stopped falling, and zinc prices have rebounded with the non - ferrous sector. The macro - outlook may be volatile. On the supply side, zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and smelter profits are declining. On the demand side, it is the off - season, and demand is average. In the short term, zinc prices may remain in high - level oscillation, and there is a possibility of decline in the long - term [15][16]. - **Lead**: With the accumulation of social inventory, lead prices are oscillating with the non - ferrous sector. On the supply side, production has decreased due to environmental protection and other factors. On the demand side, electric bicycle orders are weak, while automobile battery orders are improving. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [17][18]. - **Nickel**: With repeated expectations of nickel ore quotas, the market is oscillating. Indonesia will regulate nickel production quotas in 2026. On the supply side, there is pressure. On the demand side, it is in the off - season. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and the actual quota implementation needs to be monitored [18][20]. - **Stainless Steel**: With repeated expectations of nickel ore quotas, the stainless - steel market has corrected. The cost has some support. Production decreased in December, and there may be a slight increase in January. Terminal demand is cautious, and inventory may accumulate. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate, and Indonesian policy changes need to be tracked [21][22]. - **Tin**: With continued capital games, tin prices are running strongly. Supply risks are high. On the supply side, there are disruptions in various regions, and refined tin production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, it is expected to grow due to factors such as the semiconductor industry and new energy. Tin prices are expected to run strongly in an oscillating manner [22][24]. 2.行情监测 - **Copper**: No specific monitoring content is provided in the given text. - **Alumina**: On January 5, the spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with a slight decline in Xinjiang. The alumina warehouse receipts were 156,917 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]. - **Aluminum**: On January 5, the SMM AOO average price was 23,310 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan/ton from the previous day. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE increased. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: On January 5, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 22,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. - **Zinc**: On January 5, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were reported. As of January 5, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 114,800 tons, up 8,700 tons from December 31, 2025. In 2025, the import of zinc concentrates increased significantly [15][16]. - **Lead**: On January 5, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots also rose. The social inventory of lead ingots increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [17]. - **Nickel**: On January 5, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased, and the LME nickel inventory also increased slightly. Indonesia will regulate nickel production quotas in 2026 [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: The latest stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On January 5, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 was reported [21]. - **Tin**: On January 5, the LME and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the SHFE tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots increased [24].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, without the disturbance of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the nickel surplus is expected to slightly narrow to 245,000 tons, but the refined nickel surplus will increase by another 30,000 tons, intensifying inventory pressure [5][13][98]. - The surplus is concentrating on low - cost deliverable products, which may force nickel prices down to seek support from the cost of the wet - process production line [5][13][98]. - There are potential upward risks in stages. If the macro and industrial sectors resonate in the first half of the year and are accompanied by capital inflows, the upward trend at the end of 2025 may continue. However, if the nickel ore quota increases or the inventory becomes explicit, there may be opportunities for high - altitude short - selling in the second half of the year [5][98] - The recommended trading strategies are a unilateral strategy of rising first and then falling with a rising bottom, and a bull spread strategy for options [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the nickel price shock center shifted down after the trade war, hitting a five - year low in December and then rebounding due to Indonesia's policy. The volatility significantly narrowed compared to the previous year. The annual high - low difference was about 20% [4][9]. - Stainless steel prices followed nickel prices but were more rigidly supported by the cost of Indonesian nickel iron. The terminal demand was weak, showing a narrow - range shock trend with a high - low difference of about 12% throughout the year [4][10] 3.2 Excess Concentration on Low - Cost Deliverable Products, Beware of Indonesia's Policy Risks - **Supply - Side Growth Concentrates on Wet - Process Production Lines, with Fire - Process Production Almost Stagnant** - In 2026, the growth rate of refined nickel is expected to increase to 6.8%, becoming the highest - growth category. China and Indonesia will have new production capacity, while some European and American enterprises will also expand production [18][19]. - The expansion of MHP production capacity conforms to the new - energy orientation, helping to expand production and reduce costs for refined nickel and nickel sulfate. It is conservatively estimated that Indonesia's MHP output will increase by 28% to 570,000 tons in 2026 [27]. - The growth of nickel pig iron (NPI) is almost stagnant. Affected by Indonesia's policy and low profits, the growth rate of Indonesian NPI in 2026 is only expected to be 2.4% [18][34][36]. - **Indonesia's Nickel Ore Quota Policy Risks Still Need Attention** - The supply forecast for 2026 is based on the assumption of sufficient nickel ore. In 2026, the quota may be set at 250 million tons, which is lower than the demand. However, there is still flexibility in the later stage [46][49]. - If the quota remains at 250 million tons, Indonesia needs to import 70 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, which will increase the cost of nickel products and may support the bottom of nickel prices [49][52] 3.3 Demand Hard to Find Drivers, with Potential Bright Spots - **Economic Growth Slows, Interest Rate Cuts Benefit the Non - Ferrous Metals Sector** - In 2026, the global economic growth will further slow down. The growth rate of developed economies is expected to be around 1.5%, and that of emerging markets and developing economies is slightly higher than 4% [59]. - China's economy is still at the bottom, and it is expected that fiscal policy tools will play a role in the "15th Five - Year Plan" [59]. - **Stainless Steel Supply and Demand in Tight Balance, Cost Expected to Increase** - In terms of demand, China's stainless steel demand is expected to grow by 4% in 2026. Domestic consumption may be supported by subsidies, while exports may decline [64][65]. - In terms of supply, new production capacity is limited. In 2026, nickel and chromium raw materials may rise, increasing the cost of stainless steel. If demand improves, the price center may move up; otherwise, it may suppress production capacity utilization [68][71] - **The Proportion of Ternary Batteries Stabilizes, and New Productivity Provides Potential Growth Points** - The growth rate of the new - energy vehicle market slows down. In China, due to subsidy withdrawal, the growth rate of new - energy passenger vehicle sales is expected to be 16%. In the overseas market, the US market is weak, while the European market is expected to maintain growth [78][79][83]. - The proportion of ternary batteries has fallen below 20%. Although it faces challenges, it may become a potential growth point from 2027 - 2030 [88][91][93] 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance and Trading Strategy - In 2025, the estimated surplus of primary nickel is 277,000 tons. In 2026, without the impact of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the surplus is expected to narrow to 245,000 tons, but the refined nickel surplus will increase by 30,000 tons [98][99]. - The trading logic is to consider the continuation of the upward trend at the end of 2025 in the first half of 2026 if the macro and industry resonate. In the second half, consider high - altitude short - selling if the nickel ore quota increases or the inventory becomes explicit [5][98]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, without the disturbance of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the nickel surplus is expected to slightly narrow to 245,000 tons, but the refined nickel surplus will increase by another 30,000 tons, intensifying inventory pressure. The surplus is concentrated in low - cost deliverable goods, which may force nickel prices to seek support from the wet - process cost. There are risks such as Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy and the potential change of the Russian nickel inventory status. The trading logic is that there may be a catch - up opportunity in the first half of the year if the macro and industrial factors resonate, but considering the significant annual surplus, short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered [5][100]. - The recommended trading strategies are a unilateral strategy of rising first and then falling with a higher bottom, and a bull spread strategy for options [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - In 2025, the nickel price's oscillation center moved down after the trade - war and hit a 5 - year low in December, then rebounded due to Indonesia's policy. The price difference between the highest and lowest points in the year was about 20%, and the volatility significantly narrowed compared to the previous year. Stainless steel prices followed nickel prices but were more rigidly supported by Indonesia's nickel - iron cost, showing a narrow - range oscillation due to weak terminal demand [4][10]. - In the first quarter, the market speculated on Indonesia and the Philippines' nickel ore policies, driving up nickel prices. After the policies were implemented and some restrictions were lifted, the market sentiment eased. After the US announced reciprocal tariffs in early April, nickel prices dropped by over 10%, then recovered. From May, new nickel production capacity was continuously released, but inventory accumulation was slow due to inventory invisibility. In October, nickel inventory started to accumulate rapidly, and in November, short - selling funds entered the market, driving nickel prices to a 5 - year low. In December, Indonesia's plan to tighten the nickel ore quota in 2026 and the overall rise of the non - ferrous metal sector led to a rebound in nickel prices [10][11]. Excess Concentration in Low - Cost Deliverable Goods, Beware of Indonesia's Policy Risk - **Supply Growth Concentrated in Wet - Process Lines, Fire - Process Almost Stagnant** - In 2025, the highest - growth segment in primary nickel supply was Indonesia's NPI production, but due to tightened fire - process smelting in Indonesia and the sluggish stainless - steel market, NPI growth was limited. In 2026, the growth rate is expected to be only 2.4%. Sulfuric - nickel production is expected to grow by 6.7% in 2026, and refined nickel demand, which can be used for perpetual warehouse receipts and has certain financial attributes, is expected to grow by 6.8% in 2026, becoming the highest - growth category [19]. - **Refined Nickel Growth at Home and Abroad**: In 2026, new production capacity in China and Indonesia will be put into operation as planned, with a total of 116,000 tons of new capacity from several companies. Some overseas enterprises will also expand production. In 2025, the estimated refined - nickel production increased by 5.7% to 1.084 million tons, and in 2026, it is expected to increase by 6.8% to 1.157 million tons [20]. - **MHP Capacity Expansion in line with New Energy Trends**: Due to the depletion of high - grade nickel ore reserves and the Indonesian government's preference for wet - process smelting, MHP capacity is expanding. In 2025, Indonesia's estimated MHP production was about 445,000 tons, and in 2026, it is conservatively expected to grow by 28% to 570,000 tons. In contrast, the ice - nickel capacity increase in 2026 is only 83,000 tons. China's sulfuric - nickel production is expected to grow by 12.7% to 400,000 tons in 2026 [28][34]. - **NPI Growth Stagnant**: In 2025, Indonesia's NPI production increased by 22.6% to 1.8602 million tons, but in 2026, it is expected to grow by only 2.4% to around 1.9 million tons. China's NPI capacity has basically reached a low point, and the decline will narrow in 2026. The total NPI production in China and Indonesia is expected to grow by 1.5% to 2.166 million tons in 2026 [37]. - **Indonesia's Nickel Ore Quota Policy Risk Needs Attention** - The supply forecast for 2026 is based on the assumption of sufficient nickel ore. Since 2024, the quarterly nickel ore quota approval has led to tight supply, and the nickel ore price in March is often prone to rise. In 2026, the quota may be set at 250 million tons, which is lower than the 2025 level and the expected demand. However, there is flexibility in the quota adjustment, and if the quota remains at 250 million tons, Indonesia needs to import 70 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, which will increase production costs and may support the bottom of nickel prices [48][51]. Demand Hard to Find a Driver, Potential Bright Spots Exist - **Economic Growth Slows, Interest - Rate Cuts Benefit the Non - Ferrous Metal Sector** - In 2025, the global economic growth slowed, and it is expected to further slow to 3.1% in 2026. China's investment and real - estate sectors are weak, and the economy is still at the bottom. Although the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in 2026, which is beneficial for the financial attributes of non - ferrous metals, the overall economic environment has many concerns [61]. - **Stainless - Steel Supply - Demand in Tight Balance, Cost Expected to Rise** - **Stainless - Steel Demand Growth Moderate**: In 2026, China's domestic stainless - steel demand is expected to grow by 4% due to factors such as the real - estate cycle at the bottom and the continuation of consumer subsidies. Exports are expected to decline by 8% due to overseas "double - anti" policies and other factors [66][67]. - **Limited New Stainless - Steel Production Capacity, Output Adjusted by Profit**: In 2026, new stainless - steel production capacity is limited. Nickel and chromium raw material prices may rise due to policy factors, which will increase stainless - steel costs. If demand improves, the price center may move up; otherwise, it will suppress production capacity utilization [70][73]. - **Ternary - Battery Proportion Stabilizes, New Productivity Provides Potential Growth Points** - **New - Energy Vehicle Market Growth Slows**: In the domestic market, the new - energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2026 has both positive and negative effects, and the sales growth rate is expected to reach 16% to 1.78 million vehicles. In the overseas market, the US new - energy vehicle market is weak, while the European market is expected to maintain growth, and the global new - energy passenger - vehicle sales are expected to grow by 14% to 2.41 million vehicles in 2026 [81][86]. - **Ternary - Battery Proportion Drops below 20%, New Productivity as Potential Growth Points**: In the first 11 months of 2025, the proportion of ternary - battery loading in China's power - battery market dropped below 20%. In the future, the ternary - battery market needs high - nickel materials to break through, but it faces technical challenges. It may become a potential growth point from 2027 - 2030 [90][96]. Supply - Demand Balance and Trading Strategy - Macroscopically, the loose monetary environment benefits the financial attributes of non - ferrous metals, but the economic environment has many concerns. Industrially, in 2025, the primary nickel surplus was 277,000 tons, and in 2026, it is expected to narrow to 245,000 tons without the impact of Indonesia's nickel ore quota. The refined - nickel surplus will increase by 30,000 tons, increasing inventory pressure. There are potential short - term upward risks, and there may be a catch - up opportunity in the first half of the year. Considering the annual surplus, short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered [100].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Nickel: In the short term, nickel prices show a narrow - range oscillation, with contradictions still accumulating. The core lies in the game between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore policy. The key to breaking the deadlock depends on the progress of Indonesian nickel ore supply governance and approval [5]. - Stainless Steel: The current fundamentals struggle to find upward drivers, but the downward space is limited. In the long - term, it may shift from a supply - strong and demand - weak logic to a supply - demand dual - weak exploration mode. In the short - term, it is expected to move within a low - level range [6]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand are expected to weaken, and the trading strategy is to sell short at high prices. The expected price range next week is 8200 - 8700 yuan/ton [34]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations still exist. It is recommended to buy on dips, with an expected price range of 51000 - 54000 yuan/ton next week [35]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures contract price is strong. Although there are potential downward risks, it is expected to remain strong. The recommended trading strategies include being bullish but not chasing the price in the single - side trading, positive spreads in the inter - period trading, and option hedging [67][69]. - Palm Oil: The de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow. Attention should be paid to the lower support [90]. - Soybean Oil: The production situation in South America is currently good, and the soybean complex lacks effective drivers [91]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Fundamentals: The contradiction between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore policy is intensifying. The supply of refined nickel shows a marginal increase and weak demand, while the non - standard nickel fundamentals improve marginally. The core support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of the Indonesian nickel ore supply policy [5]. - Inventory: On October 17, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1875 tons to 47505 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 13152 tons to 250530 tons [9]. - Market News: There are various events in Indonesia, such as the takeover of part of the PT WedaBav Nickel mining area, sanctions on mining companies for non - payment of reclamation deposits, and new regulations on the RKAB approval process. Also, there is a claim of potential additional tariffs on China by the US [10][11][12]. Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The real - world fundamentals lack upward drivers, but the cost limits the downward space. The demand is suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, while the supply growth rate has declined compared to previous years [6]. - Inventory: In September, SMM stainless - steel mill inventory was 153.2 million tons, with a month - on - month change of - 1% and a year - on - year change of +4%. On October 16, the Steel Union's stainless - steel social inventory was 104.12 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18% [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Price Movement: The futures price was weakly oscillating, and the spot price declined. On Friday, the futures closed at 8430 yuan/ton, and the SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 8750 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton) [29]. - Supply and Demand: The supply side shows that the weekly industry inventory increased. In October, production is expected to increase month - on - month. The demand side is supported by polysilicon and silicone in the short term, but overall, it is expected to be in a supply - demand dual - weak state [30][31][34]. Polysilicon - Price Movement: The futures price was oscillating strongly, and the spot price was stable. On Friday, the futures closed at 52340 yuan/ton [29]. - Supply and Demand: In October, supply increased, but leading enterprises plan to cut production at the end of the month. The demand side shows that the silicon wafer production schedule increased unexpectedly in October. The overall situation is expected to be in a relatively tight - balance state from November to December [31][33][35]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: The futures contract price strengthened. The 2511 contract closed at 75700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2960 yuan/ton, while the spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 73350 yuan/ton [67]. - Supply and Demand: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate. The weekly production reached a new high, and the demand is generally optimistic until November, but it is necessary to pay attention to the US tariff policy on Chinese energy storage [68]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Palm Oil - Market Situation: The de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow. Currently, the 01 contract shows a slight oscillation, and attention should be paid to the support level during the production - reduction season [90][91]. Soybean Oil - Market Situation: The production situation in Brazil is good. In a large - supply environment, it lacks independent drivers and mainly oscillates with the oil and fat sector, also fluctuating with Sino - US economic and trade relations [91].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [1]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between short - term supply - demand and cost, and steel prices will fluctuate [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,900, down 200 from T - 1; the trading volume was 127,190, up 29,433 from T - 1 [1]. - For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,730, down 30 from T - 1; the trading volume was 224,083, down 51,373 from T - 1 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,650, up 450 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 954, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,100, unchanged from T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,260, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesian Policy**: - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supply [1]. - The Indonesian government requires mining companies to resubmit the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [4]. - The Indonesian government will punish illegal mining, with reports of 1063 illegal mines [4]. - **Production Changes**: - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, affecting about 1900 metal tons of nickel - iron production per month [2][4]. - A Shandong steel mill started maintenance due to a 5% annual production reduction target, suspending long - term supply agreements for hot - rolled coil [4]. - The Indonesian forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mine of PT WedaBav Nickel, affecting about 600 metal tons of nickel ore production per month [5]. - The Indonesian government sanctioned 190 mining companies for not providing claim and refund guarantees [6]. - **Other News**: - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and that of stainless steel is +1, indicating a relatively strong trend for both [7].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the nickel and stainless steel industries, analyzing their fundamentals, inventory changes, and market news [1][2]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Nickel Market**: The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel show that the resonance of real - world inventory accumulation and weak expectations suppresses prices, and the Indonesian nickel mine issue increases short - selling risks. The surplus in nickel is mainly in the ferronickel segment, with a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. The expected commissioning of pure nickel in the second half of the year puts pressure on prices, but the substitution of nickel plates with ferronickel in the alloy sector has increased. The marginal improvement in non - standard nickel fundamentals shows some de - stocking, but there is still a need for more pure nickel to be re - allocated or cleared to resolve the inventory accumulation contradiction. Indonesian news may significantly weaken short - sellers' confidence [1]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: There is a game between short - term supply - demand logic and long - term "cost - performance trading", and steel prices are oscillating. Short - term supply and demand lack drivers. The demand side has issues such as tariff contradictions and weak post - production - cycle consumption, and the supply side has adjusted production. Although the supply - demand mismatch has slightly eased, supply elasticity may limit the upside space. The cost - profit situation also restricts the downside space [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals 3.1.1 Nickel Fundamentals - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia, which may marginally weaken the import demand. The global refined nickel's visible inventory has returned to an increasing trend, with a weekly increase of 9,810 tons to 264,382 tons, and the market's expectation of implicit restocking has slowed down. The surplus in nickel is concentrated in the ferronickel segment, with a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. The expected commissioning of pure nickel in the second half of the year puts pressure on prices, but the substitution of nickel plates with ferronickel in the alloy sector has increased, and the inventory accumulation trend may suppress nickel prices. The marginal improvement in non - standard nickel fundamentals shows some de - stocking, but more pure nickel needs to be re - allocated or cleared to resolve the inventory accumulation contradiction. Indonesian news may significantly weaken short - sellers' confidence, as over 148 hectares of a nickel mine in Indonesia have been taken over, affecting the monthly nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons. There are also other potential risks in Indonesia, such as the government's requirement for enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget in October 2025, which may limit the decline in nickel ore premiums [1]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel Fundamentals - Short - term supply and demand lack drivers. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of demand has significantly converged compared to previous years, with the apparent demand growth rate dropping to 2.0%. The supply side experienced a "de - valuation - de - production" phase from June to July, and the year - on - year supply growth rate has also significantly converged, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate falling to 2.4%. The reduction in production by an Indonesian steel mill has led to a 27% decline in imports, and the supply - demand mismatch has slightly eased, with the inventory centers of factories and society both decreasing. However, supply elasticity may limit the upside space, as production increased in August and is expected to continue to increase in September, with a 6% month - on - month increase to 3.45 million tons in September, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate is expected to recover to 3.2%. The 300 - series reaches 1.81 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year/ month - on - month increase of 4.8%/5.2%. Since the absolute inventory levels of the upstream and mid - stream in the real - world have not been digested to a neutral or low level, if the valuation is high, it may lead to expectations of supply elasticity release, and downstream procurement is cautious. In the short - term cost and profit segment, after the marginal return to the fundamental logic, combined with the de - stocking and valuation repair in the ferronickel segment and the increase in the chromium iron tender procurement price, steel mill profits have been squeezed, and the cash profits of non - leading steel mills from warehouse delivery have basically converged, so the cost - support logic also limits the imagination of the downside space [2]. 3.2 Inventory Changes - **Nickel Inventory**: China's social nickel inventory increased by 144 tons to 39,298 tons, including an increase of 1,851 tons in warehouse receipt inventory to 23,529 tons, a decrease of 737 tons in spot inventory to 11,679 tons, and a decrease of 970 tons in bonded area inventory to 4,090 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 9,666 tons to 225,084 tons [3]. - **Ferronickel Inventory**: On September 15, the SMM ferronickel inventory was 28,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14% and a year - on - year increase of 26%. The inventory pressure is high, but it is continuously easing on the margin [5]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On September 18, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,082 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.51%. Among them, the total inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 598,806 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%, and the total inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 388,276 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.38% [5]. - **Nickel Ore Inventory in Chinese Ports**: The nickel ore inventory in 14 Chinese ports increased by 139,500 wet tons to 14.0011 million wet tons, including 13.4823 million wet tons of Philippine nickel ore. Classified by nickel ore grade, there are 8.1456 million wet tons of low - nickel high - iron ore and 5.8555 million wet tons of medium - and high - grade nickel ore [5]. 3.3 Market News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies. The government - approved 2025 RKAB production is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [6]. - Two nickel - iron smelting industrial parks in Indonesia have suspended all EF production lines due to long - term production losses, and the shutdown is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [6]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources department requires mining and coal - mining companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - A steel mill in Shandong has started maintenance due to capacity limitations, with an annual production reduction target of 5%, and has temporarily suspended the delivery obligations under long - term supply agreements signed in August [7]. - The Indonesian president stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received. The Indonesian forestry working group has taken over more than 148 hectares of a nickel mine in PT Weda Bay Nickel, accounting for 0.3% of the total mine area, and it is expected to affect the monthly nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons [8]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia [1][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The smelting end of nickel presents a clean range - bound trading logic, while the news front has high uncertainty and requires dynamic tracking. The short - term nickel price does not have a basis for a significant decline, but there is a long - term pressure expectation due to the commissioning of low - cost wet - process projects. [1] - For stainless steel, the short - term supply - demand situation and long - term contradictions are in a game, and the steel price will run in a range - bound manner. The short - term supply and demand lack drivers, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamental Analysis - Indonesian nickel ore news has caused disturbances again. A 148 - hectare nickel mine in Weda Bay Nickel was taken over, accounting for about 0.3% of its total area, affecting a monthly nickel ore output of 600 metal tons. The Indonesian government has urged companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget starting from October 2025, which may strengthen the high - price support logic for the ore end. [1] - The short - term support for the smelting end lies in the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical integration, and the upper anchor is the relative valuation with ferronickel. The global visible inventory of pure nickel has increased, with a weekly increase of 0.98 million tons to 26.4 million tons, which still drags down the market. However, non - standard nickel shows a certain degree of destocking. [1] Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - The short - term supply and demand of stainless steel lack drivers. The demand growth rate has converged significantly compared with previous years, with the apparent demand growth rate dropping to 2.0%. The supply growth rate has also converged, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate falling to 2.4%. The import volume has decreased by 27% due to the production cut of an Indonesian steel mill, and the supply - demand mismatch has eased slightly. [2] - The supply elasticity may limit the upside space. The production schedule in September is expected to increase, with a 6% month - on - month increase to 3.45 million tons in China, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate is expected to be repaired to 3.2%. The profit of steel mills has been squeezed, and the cost support logic limits the downside space. [2] Inventory Changes - The social inventory of refined nickel in China has increased by 144 tons to 39,298 tons. The LME nickel inventory has increased by 9,666 tons to 225,084 tons. The SMM ferronickel inventory on August 31 was 29,267 tons, a 12% decrease from half a month ago and a 28% increase year - on - year. [3][4][5] - On September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0125 million tons, a 3.90% week - on - week decrease. The nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports has increased by 779,300 wet tons to 13.8616 million wet tons. [5] Market News - Multiple Indonesian nickel - related projects have new developments, including the trial production of the CNI nickel - iron RKEF project, the suspension of production of EF lines in some nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and the government's emphasis on resubmitting the 2026 RKAB budget. [6][7] - Some steel mills in Shandong have started maintenance, reducing the supply of hot - rolled coil. The Indonesian government will crack down on illegal mining, and a 148 - hectare nickel mine in Weda Bay Nickel was taken over, affecting a monthly output of 600 metal tons. [8][9] Weekly Key Data Tracking - Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures are provided, as well as data on import nickel, ferronickel, and other products in the industrial chain. [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and it is necessary to be vigilant against multiple potential risks in the news. The stainless - steel price is in a low - level shock due to the weak supply and demand in reality [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: After the increase in Indonesian quotas is transmitted to the ore price, the overall decline of Indonesian nickel ore is relatively moderate, and the premium margin is temporarily stable. The cash cost of the pyrometallurgical process has decreased by about 2%. The nickel ore contradiction usually eases in the second half of the year, and the willingness of funds to speculate has decreased, which may limit the elasticity of the nickel price. The short - term inventory of the smelting end has not increased as expected, and the production schedule of ternary materials is considerable. The cost curve is still supported by the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical integration in the short term. The weak fundamentals of nickel iron have improved marginally, and the price has recovered due to the marginal decline in inventory. However, the expected production of refined nickel still exerts pressure, and the increase in low - cost integrated supply or equity resource processing supply drags down the upside of the nickel price [1]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,371 tons to 38,566 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 204 tons to 209,544 tons [3]. - **Market News**: There are multiple events affecting the nickel market, such as Canada's potential halt of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, Indonesia's plan to shorten the mining quota period, changes in the RKAB plan, production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and Indonesia's plan to crack down on illegal mining [6][7][9]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of stainless - steel supply and demand have significantly converged compared with previous years. The tariff contradiction on the demand side and the weak consumption in the post - real - estate cycle have resonated, and the apparent demand growth rate in July decreased to 2%. After the "de - valuation - de - production" stage from June to July, the supply - demand mismatch has slightly eased. The supply in August increased month - on - month by 4%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. The production schedule in Indonesia in August was 420,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The expected production in September has rebounded. Due to the high inventory in the upstream and mid - stream and the cautious procurement of the downstream, there is a lack of short - term upward drivers, and the long - term recovery still depends on the start of the overall macro - inventory replenishment cycle. The short - term profit margin has been compressed, and the cost logic limits the downward space [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 31, the SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,267 tons, with a half - month - on - month decrease of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. On August 28, 2025, the stainless - steel social inventory was 1,082,956 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.81%. China's 14 - port nickel ore inventory increased by 539,700 wet tons to 12.5982 million wet tons [5]. - **Market News**: A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance due to capacity limitations and production reduction targets, which will reduce the supply of hot - rolled coil [8]. Futures Data The report provides weekly key data tracking for nickel and stainless - steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price spreads and premiums [11]. Charts There are a series of charts showing the price trends, trading volumes, inventory changes, and cost - profit situations of nickel, stainless - steel, and related products [12 - 24].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated August 21, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The conflict between reality and expectations intensifies, amplifying the volatility of the futures market [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is boosted [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted [2][14]. Summary by Categories Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,930 yuan, down 400 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day [4]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 63,676 lots, a decrease of 1 lot from the previous day, while the stainless - steel main contract had a trading volume of 149,736 lots, an increase of 15,654 lots from the previous day [4]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff disputes. An Indonesian nickel - iron project has entered the trial - production phase, and there are environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period and has adjusted the 2025 production target. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [4][5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040 yuan, down 6,540 yuan from the previous day, and the 2511 contract closed at 80,980 yuan, down 6,560 yuan from the previous day [10]. - The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 55,748 lots, an increase of 27,298 lots from the previous day, and the 2511 contract had a trading volume of 838,879 lots, an increase of 103,950 lots from the previous day [10]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,752 yuan/ton, down 189 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In July, lithium ore imports were 75.07 million tons, a 30.35% increase from the previous month [10][11]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract for polysilicon closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan from the previous day [14]. - The trading volume of the Si2511 contract was 561,795 lots, an increase of 123,482 lots from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract had a trading volume of 704,931 lots, an increase of 124,324 lots from the previous day [14]. Macro and Industry News - In July 2025, China's industrial silicon exports totaled 74,006.174 tons to 50 countries/regions, with an average price of 9,219.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.74 yuan/ton from the previous month [14]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].