| 作者：陈琳萱 | 研究助理：王若颜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号：F03108575 | 从业资格证号：F03134422 | | 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 | 联系方式：wangruoyan@zjtfqh.com | | 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com | 审核：李文涛 | | 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 | 观点小结 镍&不锈钢 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 7 势势势势 | 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 中性 | 当前市场焦点转向2026年的RKAB配额审批，印尼矿业协会预计相关流程将在未来三个月内完成。鉴于政策执行存在弹性，需警惕配额实际落地情 | | 核心观点 | 偏多 | 况与市场预期之间的偏差。总体来看，当前镍价借力于供应端的政策约束，有望暂时摆脱现实压力，但随着投机资金推动价格冲高至过度乐观区 | | | | 间，镍价或将接受基本面验证。 | | 镍矿价格 | 中性 | 截至1月6日，菲律宾红土镍矿0.9%、1.5%、1.8%CIF价格环比上周分别持平于2 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二部分 | 市场回顾 3 | | | 第三部分 | 过剩向低成本交割品集中，谨防印尼政策风险 | 4 | | | 一、供应端增长集中在湿法产线，火法几乎停滞 | 5 | | | 二、印尼镍矿配额政策风险仍需关注 10 | | | 第四部分 | 需求难寻驱动，或有潜在亮点 12 | | | | 一、经济增长放缓，降息利好有色板块 13 | | | | 二、不锈钢供需紧平衡，成本有望抬升 14 | | | | 三、三元电池占比企稳，新质生产力提供潜在增长点 | 16 | | 第五部分 | 供需平衡及交易策略 21 | | | | 免责声明 | 22 | 有色板块研发报告 1.印尼镍矿配额落在 2.5 亿吨以内，或其他实质性影响镍矿供需的政策。 2.俄罗斯延续被制裁状态，库存继续隐性化。（若海外取消对俄制裁， 库存可能显性化，施压镍价） 交易逻辑：由于存在阶段性潜在上行风险，上半年若宏观能与产业共振， 配合资金进场，2025 年末的上涨或将延续。但若镍矿配额增加，或库存显 性化，下半年可考虑冲高空配的机会。 镍年报 2025 年 ...

| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二部分 市场回顾 | 3 | | | 第三部分 | 过剩向低成本交割品集中，谨防印尼政策风险 | 4 | | 一、供应端增长集中在湿法产线，火法几乎停滞 | | 5 | | 二、印尼镍矿配额政策风险仍需关注 | 10 | | | 第四部分 需求难寻驱动，或有潜在亮点 | 12 | | | 一、经济增长放缓，降息利好有色板块 | 13 | | | 二、不锈钢供需紧平衡，成本有望抬升 | 14 | | | 三、三元电池占比企稳，新质生产力提供潜在增长点 | | 16 | | 第五部分 供需平衡及交易策略 | 21 | | | 免责声明 | | 22 | 有色板块研发报告 镍年报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 镍过剩犹存 印尼政策风险加大 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 宏观方面：货币层面较为宽松，利好有色品种金融属性发挥。但经济大 环境仍有较多隐忧，期待"十五五"开年政策工具。 产业方面：2026 年若无印尼镍矿配额扰动，预计过剩略有收窄至 24.5 万吨，但精炼镍过剩再增加 3 万吨，进一步加剧库存压力。过剩向低成本交 ...

镍&不锈钢 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 0 3 探探探探探探 | 作者：陈琳萱 | 研究助理：王若颜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号：F03108575 | 从业资格证号：F03134422 | | 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 | 联系方式：wangruoyan@zjtfqh.com | | 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com | 审核：李文涛 | | 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 | 观点小结 | 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 十一月纯镍产量环比骤降28.13%，此前盘面的快速下探对供应端的减产效应得以充分显现，镍价估值环比修复，但尚未收复前期跌幅，中长期逻 | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 辑仍受基本面因素压制。展望四季度，矿端成本刚性与印尼RKAB审批进程的不确定性形成双重支撑，限制镍价进一步深跌，但下游需求的现实矛 | | | | 盾尚未解决，上行驱动仍显乏力。 | | 镍矿价格 | 中性 | 截至12月1日，菲律宾红土镍矿0.9%、1.5%、1.8%CIF价格环比上周 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the nickel and zinc markets, highlighting the supply-demand dynamics and price trends for both metals. Nickel Market Insights - Nickel prices have been declining due to oversupply across the industry chain, particularly in the nickel-iron and stainless steel segments, with prices reaching a three-year low [2] - The demand for stainless steel is weak, exacerbated by the release of high-cost nickel-iron capacity, leading to increased inventory pressures in the nickel market [2] - Indonesia's mining quota was set lower than the previous year, but actual supply has increased, particularly with a 36.4% year-on-year rise in nickel ore imports from the Philippines [4] - The expectation is that nickel prices may stabilize between 100,000 to 110,000 yuan in 2026, with a recommendation to adopt a bearish strategy and look for short-selling opportunities [5] Zinc Market Insights - Global zinc production has increased by 59,000 tons (7.7% year-on-year), primarily from overseas mines, while domestic zinc supply remains ample due to increased imports [6] - China's refined zinc processing fees have rebounded, leading to a high operating rate of over 90% in smelting plants, which has significantly boosted domestic refined zinc supply [6] - The domestic market is expected to face significant inventory pressure, while the international market may experience price support due to supply tightness from overseas smelters [8] - The demand for zinc in 2025 is projected to be stable, with traditional industries like construction and real estate dragging down demand, while the automotive sector provides some incremental growth [9] Price Trends and Recommendations - Short-term price support for zinc may come from seasonal production cuts in northern mines and the opening of export windows for refined zinc [10] - However, the long-term outlook suggests a continued downward trend in zinc prices due to an oversupply situation, with recommendations to sell wide-strike options to capitalize on this trend [10][11] - Investors are advised to monitor overseas processing fee recoveries and smelter restarts, as well as LME inventory levels, which could impact market dynamics [11] Additional Considerations - The conference highlights the importance of keeping an eye on policy changes in resource countries like Indonesia and the Philippines, as these can significantly affect market conditions [3] - The potential for a supply-demand imbalance in the nickel market is emphasized, with a focus on the need for strategic positioning in light of high inventory levels and weak demand [5][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to remain volatile. The rainy season in the Surigao mining area of the Philippines has tightened the shipment volume of nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade premium of nickel ore has been stable, providing strong cost support at the mine end. Affected by macro - sentiment, nickel prices are under short - term pressure. However, the strong cost resilience in the fourth quarter and potential disturbances in the RKAB approval process in Indonesia will limit the further decline of nickel prices, while upward breakthroughs are still restricted by fundamentals [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Overview - In the nickel market, prices are within the oscillation range. In the stainless - steel market, the upward space of steel prices is restricted by factors such as high inventory, weak demand, and weakened cost support [3][4][5]. Industry News Update - Xiamen Tungsten New Energy and GEM signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement. From 2026 - 2028, GEM is expected to supply 150,000 tons of various battery raw materials and products annually, totaling 450,000 tons in three years [7]. - The London Metal Exchange received an application for the listing of the "PTENICO" nickel brand from PT Eternal Nickel Industry [7]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association announced an increase in the reference price of domestic nickel ore trade in October 2025 (Phase II) [7]. - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported a surplus in global refined nickel supply in August 2025 and from January - August 2025 [7]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources formulated rules for the online approval of the next - year's RKAB for mines starting in October each year [7]. Market Price Performance Futures and Spot Prices - The Shanghai nickel main contract 2512 fell 1.28% last week. The spot price of electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.85% week - on - week to $122,000 per ton as of November 3 [9][13]. - The price of Jinchuan nickel dropped by 0.76% week - on - week to $123,350 per ton, with a premium increase of $150 to $2,600 per ton. The price of imported nickel decreased by 0.9% week - on - week to $121,150 per ton, with a stable premium [13]. Export and Import Windows - As of October 31, the LME nickel price decreased by 0.49% week - on - week to $15,250 per ton. The electrolytic nickel import and export losses increased [18]. NPI and Sulfuric Acid Nickel Prices - The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.59% week - on - week to $923 per nickel point as of November 3. The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained stable, while the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased [27]. Supply - side Analysis Nickel Ore - As of October 31, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore at 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged week - on - week. The domestic trade prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% nickel ore also remained stable [32]. - Nickel ore port inventory decreased by 1.76% week - on - week to 10.06 million wet tons as of October 31. In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume decreased by 3.51% month - on - month but increased by 34.43% year - on - year [35]. MHP and High - Grade Nickel Matte - As of October 31, the FOB price of MHP increased by 2.01% week - on - week to $13,422 per ton, and the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte increased by 1.86% week - on - week to $13,711 per ton [41]. - In October 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP increased by 0.74% month - on - month to 41,000 nickel tons, while the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 1.77% month - on - month to 22,200 tons [42]. Refined Nickel - In October 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production increased by 0.84% month - on - month to 35,900 tons, an increase of 17.06% year - on - year [49]. - As of October 31, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 17.08% week - on - week to 31,400 tons, and LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 0.60% week - on - week to 252,800 tons [51]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - In October 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly production increased by 6.66% month - on - month to 36,200 nickel tons. The raw material shortage limited capacity release, and the market supply was still tight [64]. Nickel Pig Iron - In October 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal volume) increased by 22.72% month - on - month to 28,100 tons. The production in Indonesia increased by 6.58% month - on - month to 149,100 nickel tons [77]. Demand - side Analysis Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract ss2512 fell 1.21% last week. The spot price of the 304 variety decreased by $50 - $300 due to weak fundamentals [86]. - In October 2025, the estimated output of domestic stainless - steel mills' crude steel increased by 0.57% month - on - month. It is expected to decrease by 2.06% in November [89]. - As of October 31, the stainless - steel social inventory increased by 0.36% week - on - week to 1.0311 million tons. The cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 1.05% week - on - week to $12,800 per ton as of November 3 [92][96]. China's Primary Nickel Balance Sheet - From May 2025 to May 2026, the total supply of nickel generally showed an upward trend, and the total demand also increased steadily. The supply - demand balance remained positive, indicating a supply surplus in the market [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view on nickel is that it will be in a volatile state. The price of nickel ore at the raw material end remains high, and with the coming of the rainy season in the Philippines, the shipment volume of nickel ore is hindered, and mines have a strong attitude to hold prices. The fundamentals of pure nickel remain weak, but short - term macro - sentiment may still be priced in, and it is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate widely [3]. - The short - term stainless steel market is operating weakly. The downward shift of cost support and the imbalance between supply and demand jointly suppress steel prices. After the "Silver October" peak season, downstream buyers mainly purchase for rigid demand and resist high - priced resources, making it difficult to provide upward momentum for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Price and Market Conditions - As of October 27, the spot price of electrolytic nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 123,050 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.78% increase; the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 124,300 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase; the price of imported nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 122,250 yuan/ton, a 0.78% increase [15]. - As of October 27, the LME nickel price increased by 105 dollars/ton to 15,335 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.69% increase; the LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium decreased by 0.3 dollars/ton to - 205.18 dollars/ton [19]. - As of October 27, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 9 yuan/nickel point to 928.5 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 0.96% decrease [3][27]. 3.1.2 Supply - As of September 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.56 million tons month - on - month, a 1.14% increase, and a 13.07% increase year - on - year [3][49]. - As of September 2025, China's monthly refined nickel export volume was 1.41 million tons, a 6.22% decrease month - on - month, and a 33.21% increase year - on - year; the monthly import volume was 2.84 million tons, a 17.29% increase month - on - month, and a 378.85% increase year - on - year [49]. - As of October 27, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 2,912 tons to 29,800 tons week - on - week, a 10.84% increase; LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 762 tons to 251,200 tons week - on - week, a 0.30% increase [50]. 3.1.3 Demand - The battery field is the core driver of demand. The penetration of high - nickel battery technology is increasing, and new - energy vehicle manufacturers have stable production, increasing the procurement demand for high - purity nickel sulfate. The electroplating field benefits from the peak season of consumer electronics, driving up the inquiry volume of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate [4]. 3.2 Nickel Ore Market 3.2.1 Price - As of October 27, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore increased by 1 dollar/wet ton to 30, 58, and 79.5 dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week [3][32]. - As of October 24, the ex - works prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia remained unchanged at 23 and 52.8 dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week [3][32]. - Last week, the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang remained unchanged at 12.5 and 11.5 dollars/wet ton respectively [3][32]. 3.2.2 Supply - As of October 24, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 29 million tons to 10.24 million wet tons week - on - week, a 2.75% decrease [35]. - In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a 3.51% decrease month - on - month, and a 34.43% increase year - on - year. Among them, the import volume from the Philippines was 5.8174 million tons, a 1.93% decrease month - on - month [35]. 3.3 Nickel Intermediate Product Market - As of October 27, the FOB price of MHP increased by 24 dollars/ton to 13,184 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.18% increase; the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte increased by 24 dollars/ton to 13,489 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.18% increase [41]. - As of September 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP decreased by 0.08 million tons to 4.07 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.93% decrease; the production of high - grade nickel matte increased by 0.53 million tons to 2.26 million tons month - on - month, a 30.64% increase [41]. - As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of MHP was 1.905 million tons, a 11.66% increase month - on - month, and a 67.38% increase year - on - year; the monthly import volume of high - grade nickel matte was 0.568 million tons, a 236.44% increase month - on - month, and a 65.93% increase year - on - year [41]. 3.4 Nickel Sulfate Market - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel sulfate production increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.40 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 11.45% increase. The production of domestic nickel sulfate increased, and the operating rate was also adjusted upwards. Recently, some salt plants that had undergone maintenance have restored production capacity, and the production volume has slightly increased due to contract processing orders. However, the overall inventory is at a low level, and the volume of spot sales is limited, and the market supply continues to be in a tight pattern [62]. - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel sulfate import volume was 2.95 million tons, a 2.51% decrease month - on - month, and a 36.24% increase year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 806,420 tons, a 58.96% increase month - on - month, and a 75.81% decrease year - on - year [62]. 3.5 Nickel Iron Market 3.5.1 Production - As of September 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.23 million tons to 2.29 million tons month - on - month, a 9.30% decrease. Most domestic nickel iron manufacturers maintain a normal production rhythm, but due to the narrowing profit margin and weak demand, the overall industry operating rate is at a low level [78]. - As of September 2025, the production of nickel pig iron in Indonesia increased by 0.2 million tons to 13.99 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.45% increase [78]. 3.5.2 Import - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel iron import volume was 1.0853 million tons (converted to metal content of 136,400 tons), a 24.16% increase month - on - month, and a 47.19% increase year - on - year. The latest data shows that the import volume of nickel iron from Indonesia has increased significantly, exacerbating the domestic oversupply situation [78]. 3.5.3 Profit - As of October 27, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian increased by 2.94 yuan/nickel point to 1,002.96 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, and the production profit margin decreased by 1.17 percentage points to - 7.42% [84]. 3.6 Stainless Steel Market 3.6.1 Price - Last week, the stainless steel main contract ss2512 opened at 12,620 yuan/ton and closed at 12,810 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 12,840 yuan/ton and a low of 12,565 yuan/ton, a 1.43% weekly increase. The futures market showed an upward trend, but the boost to the spot market was limited [87]. 3.6.2 Production - As of October 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production plan was 3.4472 million tons, a 0.60% increase month - on - month, and a 4.75% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production plan for the 200 - series was 1.035 million tons, a 1.35% increase month - on - month; the 300 - series was 1.7649 million tons, a 0.12% increase month - on - month; the 400 - series was 0.6293 million tons, a 0.69% increase month - on - month [90]. 3.6.3 Inventory - As of October 24, the stainless steel social inventory decreased by 13,800 tons to 1.0274 million tons week - on - week, a 1.33% decrease. Among them, the 300 - series inventory decreased by 5,800 tons to 649,300 tons week - on - week, a 0.89% decrease [93]. - As of October 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 601 tons to 73,900 tons week - on - week, a 0.81% decrease [93]. 3.6.4 Cost - As of October 28, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 78 yuan/ton to 12,904 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.60% decrease [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment view: Range-bound trading [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4, the path of the Fed's interest rate cuts remains uncertain, and China's growth-stabilizing policies are expected to be rolled out. Affected by macro events, nickel prices are likely to consolidate at the bottom and are more sensitive to supply-side disturbances. Focus on mining news and macro changes in Q4, and the valuation range of pure nickel can refer to the production cost of integrated electrowon nickel (which fluctuates with ore prices). In terms of operations, short-term range trading is recommended, and combination strategies such as selling out-of-the-money call options can be used to increase returns, while paying attention to risk control [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1, policies in nickel resource countries stimulated price increases; in Q2, trade conflicts and an intensified surplus led to a sharp decline; in Q3, the fundamentals were stable, and the Fed's interest rate cut in September provided a temporary boost. As of September 26, SHFE nickel closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from mid-year, and LME nickel was reported at $15,230/ton, up 0.33% [8]. 3.2 Macro Analysis 3.2.1 Fed Interest Rate Cut - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, but the subsequent path remains uncertain. The economic outlook shows an upward adjustment of GDP growth expectations, while unemployment and inflation expectations are relatively stable [12][13]. - The US labor market has weakened significantly, with non-farm payrolls being persistently weak and the unemployment rate reaching a new high since October 2021. Inflation has been rising steadily, increasing market expectations for further interest rate cuts [21]. 3.2.2 China's Economic Situation - In H2, some macro data showed signs of weakening, including fixed asset investment and social consumption. The government may introduce new incremental measures in Q4, focusing on fiscal stimulus, central bank interest rate cuts, and stabilizing the real estate market [24][27]. - The "anti-involution" policies have been introduced, but their impact on the nickel industry chain is currently limited [28][29]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Side - Indonesia's nickel ore supply is stable, but there are risks of policy disturbances. The premium for nickel ore remains firm, and Indonesia's imports of nickel ore from the Philippines are increasing. The RKAB quota for 2026 will be re-approved in October, attracting market attention [31][32]. - China's nickel pig iron production has declined slightly, while Indonesia's production remains high but with a slowing growth rate. The import of nickel pig iron from Indonesia has increased year-on-year [43][44]. - The import of nickel intermediate products has increased, with a decline in the import of nickel matte. Indonesia's MHP production has increased significantly, while the production of nickel matte has decreased [51][54]. - The production of refined nickel has remained high, with both imports and exports increasing. The cost of integrated electrowon nickel production will be the focus of pure nickel valuation [58][68]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - The growth rate of stainless steel production has slowed down, and the demand has shown some resilience. The social inventory of stainless steel is gradually being depleted [70][80]. - The production of nickel sulfate has remained stable year-on-year, but the low proportion of ternary materials in power batteries has dragged down the demand for nickel. In the long term, solid-state batteries may drive the demand for high-nickel ternary materials [85][88]. - The consumption of nickel in alloy and special steel has maintained a certain growth rate, and attention should be paid to the situation of national stockpiling [92][93]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Global nickel inventory has continued to accumulate, and the spot premium has weakened slightly compared to mid-year [95]. 3.3.4 Supply-Demand Balance - The surplus pattern of primary nickel continues, and attention should be paid to supply-side disturbances in Q4. It is expected that China will have a surplus of 179,800 tons of primary nickel in 2025, and the global surplus will be 246,200 tons [100][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic situation: US Q2 economic data was strong, with GDP and personal consumption growth exceeding expectations. The core PCE growth slowed in August, and the risk of stagflation seemed to subside. Fed officials had differences on the interest - rate cut path, and the market bet on a 25bp rate cut in October. In China, the interest - rate benchmark remained unchanged, with expectations of RRR and interest - rate cuts [3]. - Fundamental situation: The conflict in the Middle East had limited impact on overseas nickel mines, mainly affecting the loading and unloading efficiency of southern Chinese ports. The Boroy typhoon might have affected Philippine nickel mines, but the ore price was stable. Nickel - iron plants faced cost pressure, and the game on nickel - ore prices between upstream and downstream continued. Some nickel - sulfate manufacturers stopped production, with prices firm but limited price - increase power for nickel salts. The trading of pure nickel did not improve [3]. - Future outlook: With expected disturbances in the macro and resource aspects, nickel prices may fluctuate widely. During the National Day, overseas economic data will be released, and the domestic market closure may bring more uncertainties. Indonesia will announce a new RKAB approval plan in October, making the supply outlook of the ore end uncertain. The market trading is expected to be cold before the holiday, and nickel prices may fluctuate, with attention to overseas market disturbances during the holiday [3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Variety | 2025/9/26 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 121380 | 121500 | - 120 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15166.91 | 15271 | - 104.09 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 230124 | 228444 | 1680 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 25153 | 25843 | - 690 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2350 | 2400 | - 50 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 350 | 450 | - 100 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 961 | 961 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 82.4 | 81.9 | 0.49 | Tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - **Macroeconomic data**: The market bet that the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut in October was 85.5%. The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was 3.8%, personal consumption expenditure was 2.5%, and the core PCE price index was 2.6%. The initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20 were 218,000. The August core PCE price index annual rate was 2.9%, and personal expenditure monthly rate was 0.6% [5]. - **Nickel - ore market**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines was stable at 49 US dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia was 37.65 US dollars/wet ton. The domestic nickel - ore port inventory was 971 million tons as of September 19, a significant increase of 18 million tons from the previous period but still lower than last year [6]. - **Pure - nickel market**: In August, China's refined - nickel production was 35,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.55%. The monthly production capacity was about 53,699 tons, and the operating rate was 66%. The profit margins of MHP and integrated high - matte nickel improved. In August, China imported 24,186 tons of refined nickel, a significant year - on - year increase but a month - on - month decrease. The export volume was about 15,048 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.12%. As of September 26, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was 164.32 US dollars/ton [7][8]. - **Nickel - iron market**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) fluctuated around 954.5 yuan/nickel point. In August, China's nickel - iron production was 25,280 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.77%, and Indonesia's was 137,900 nickel tons, a year - on - month and month - on - month increase. As of September 15, the nickel - iron inventory decreased slightly. Nickel - iron plants still faced losses, and the raw - material inventory was cautious [8]. - **Stainless - steel market**: In August, the production plan of China's 300 - series stainless steel was about 1.79 million tons. As of September 25, the inventory was about 532,400 tons, a slight increase. In September, the steel - mill production plan increased, and the de - stocking trend might continue [9]. - **Nickel - sulfate market**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,150 yuan/ton to 28,200 yuan/ton, and that of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate was stable at 29,750 yuan/ton. In August, the nickel - sulfate metal output was about 30,480 tons. The output of ternary materials increased. As of September 26, the downstream and upstream inventory days were 9 days and 5 days respectively. The price of nickel sulfate was stable, and the actual trading volume was limited [10]. - **New - energy vehicle market**: From September 1 - 21, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 697,000, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 58.5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.267 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. Overseas, the US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars. In China, the high - frequency sales growth rate continued to pick up, but there were still concerns in the later stage [10]. - **Inventory situation**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel was 40,828 tons, a decrease of 656 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory was 25,153 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 690 tons, and the LME inventory was 230,123 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1680 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges increased by 990 tons [11]. 3.3 Industry News - On September 20, 2025, Qingmeibang's 30,000 - ton electrowinning nickel production line was officially opened, becoming the first full - industrial - chain base for nickel resources and downstream products in Indonesia [13]. - The ESDM department suspended 190 mining companies in Indonesia, with a maximum suspension period of 60 days. The suspension could be lifted if the companies submitted reclamation plans and provided reclamation deposits. Otherwise, their mining licenses might be permanently revoked [13]. - Starting from October 1, 2025, the Indonesian ESDM will require the submission of the RKAB through the MinerbaOne application. The government is communicating with IUP holders [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - foreign ratios, nickel - futures inventory, nickel - ore port inventory, high - nickel - iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [15][17][19][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate decision was in line with market expectations, with the dot - plot indicating 2 more potential rate cuts this year and 1 in 2026. Powell emphasized the need to prevent labor market risks and the existence of inflation risks [3]. - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association slightly raised the reference price for the second - phase laterite nickel ore in September, but the overall impact on the spot market was limited. Driven by the "Golden September and Silver October", ferronickel still had an upward trend, but the increase was weakening. Nickel salts remained popular, with the production of ternary materials increasing monthly, and the consumption of power terminals improving marginally. Pure nickel showed little change [3]. - Domestically, the monetary policy is expected to be loose, which may provide a second - round boost to the macro - environment. Nickel prices have fallen to the lower end of the range and are expected to be corrected technically. However, the fundamentals show no obvious driving force, and the inventory accumulation pressure has increased, indicating weak downstream consumption. It is expected that nickel prices may rise slightly driven by the macro - environment and technical factors [3][11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Macro - level**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25bp to 4.25% on Wednesday. The new dot - plot implies 2 more rate cuts this year and 1 in 2026. Powell stated that this rate cut was preventive, and the Fed was optimistic about the future economic outlook [5]. - **Nickel Ore**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remained stable. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association slightly raised the reference price for the second - phase laterite nickel ore in September. The market is concerned about the RKAB approval in October [6]. - **Pure Nickel**: In August, China's refined nickel production was 3.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.55%. The profit margins of some processes improved. In July, imports increased significantly, mainly from Russia and Norway, and exports also increased. As of September 18, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was - 1272.68 yuan/ton [7]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron rose slightly. In August, China's ferronickel production increased by 11.77% month - on - month, and Indonesia's production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. As of September 15, the inventory of ferronickel decreased. In July, imports increased year - on - year, with significant changes in imports from different countries [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: In August, the planned production of 300 - series stainless steel increased. As of September 15, the inventory increased slightly. In September, steel mills' production plans increased, and the de - stocking trend may continue [8]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained stable. In August, the production of nickel sulfate decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased. The downstream and upstream inventory days remained stable. The market is expected to maintain a pattern of high - demand but soft - price [9]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From September 1 - 14, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 59.8%. The inventory of the passenger vehicle market has decreased, and the production - sales ratio has increased. The subsidy policy may have limited impact on demand [9]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel increased by 429 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 2314 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 3360 tons, and the total inventory of the two major exchanges increased by 5674 tons [10]. 2. Industry News - Indonesia announced the reference price for the second - phase nickel ore in September, which increased by about 0.68% compared to the first - phase [13]. - Antam and CATL plan to invest $1.9 billion in building a comprehensive nickel smelter in Indonesia. The HPAL project aims to produce 55,000 tons of MHP per year, and the RKEF smelter aims to produce 88,000 tons of NPI per year [13]. 3. Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of domestic and foreign nickel, spot premium and discount trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium and discount, nickel domestic - foreign ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [15][17][19][22].