1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view on nickel is that it will experience a sideways trend. The stable price of nickel ore at the raw material end provides cost support for the industrial chain. Recently, the continuous increase in nickel inventories at home and abroad has gradually shown an oversupply pressure, limiting the upside space for nickel prices. In the medium to long term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle, combined with the start of the new annual RKAB approval in Indonesia, will inject potential upward momentum into nickel prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Overview - **Price and Inventory**: Last week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel (2511) opened at 122,190 yuan/ton and closed at 121,160 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.83%. As of October 20, the spot price of electrolytic nickel decreased by 350 yuan/ton week-on-week to 122,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%. As of October 17, the social inventory of refined nickel (including the SHFE) increased by 4,014 tons week-on-week to 47,700 tons, a rise of 9.19% [7][13][45]. - **Export and Import Profits**: As of October 17, the LME nickel price decreased by 105 dollars/ton week-on-week to 15,110 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.69%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic nickel increased by 805.27 yuan/ton week-on-week to -677.13 yuan/ton, a rise of 54.32%, while the export profit and loss decreased by 52.13 dollars/ton to -66.76 dollars/ton [18]. - **NPI and Sulfuric Acid Nickel Prices**: As of October 21, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 11 yuan/nickel point week-on-week to 936 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 1.16%. As of October 20, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 150 yuan/ton week-on-week to 28,550 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.53% [24]. Nickel Ore - **Price and Supply**: As of October 20, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore remained flat week-on-week at 29, 57, and 78.5 dollars/wet ton respectively. As of October 17, the ex - factory prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia increased by 0 and 0.1 dollars/wet ton week-on-week to 23 and 52.8 dollars/wet ton respectively. The freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang remained flat week-on-week at 12.5 and 11.5 dollars/wet ton respectively [29]. - **Inventory and Import**: As of October 17, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 30,000 tons week-on-week to 10.53 million wet tons, a rise of 0.29%, equivalent to about 87,200 nickel tons in metal content. In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a decrease of 3.51% month-on-month and an increase of 34.43% year-on-year [31]. Refined Nickel - **Production and Trade**: As of September 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 400 tons month-on-month to 35,600 tons, a rise of 1.14% month-on-month and 13.07% year-on-year. The monthly export volume of refined nickel was 14,100 tons, a decrease of 6.22% month-on-month and an increase of 33.21% year-on-year, while the monthly import volume was 28,400 tons, an increase of 17.29% month-on-month and 378.85% year-on-year [44]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel increased by 82 dollars/ton month-on-month to 13,136 dollars/ton, a rise of 0.63%. The production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel decreased by 723 and 1,168 yuan/ton respectively to 116,448 yuan/ton and 124,802 yuan/ton, and the profit margins increased by 1.2 and 1.4 percentage points respectively to 4.4% and -2.6% [51]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Production and Trade**: As of September 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 3,500 tons month-on-month to 34,000 nickel tons, a rise of 11.45%. The monthly import volume was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 2.51% month-on-month and an increase of 36.24% year-on-year, while the monthly export volume was 806.42 tons, an increase of 58.96% month-on-month and a decrease of 75.81% year-on-year [58]. - **Cost and Profit**: Recently, the coefficients of major primary raw materials such as MHP and high - grade nickel matte have remained basically stable. As of October 20, the profit margins of MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag for producing sulfuric acid nickel increased by 1.3, 0.1, 1.4, and 0.1 percentage points respectively week-on-week to 0.5%, -0.5%, 7%, and 0% [62]. Ferronickel - **Production and Price**: As of September 2025, the national ferronickel production (in metal content) decreased by 2,300 tons month-on-month to 22,900 tons, a decrease of 9.30%. The production in Indonesia increased by 2,000 tons month-on-month to 139,900 nickel tons, a rise of 1.45%. As of October 21, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 11 yuan/nickel point week-on-week to 936 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 1.16% [24][73]. - **Inventory and Profit**: As of October 15, the ferronickel inventory in major domestic regions decreased by 174 tons compared to September 30 to 29,100 nickel tons (average grade of 11.48%), a decrease of 0.60%. As of October 20, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian increased by 0.97 yuan/nickel point week-on-week to 1,000.02 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin decreased by 1.49 percentage points to -6.25% [78]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: Last week, the main contract of stainless steel (ss2512) opened at 12,800 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. As of October 20, the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge in Wuxi remained flat week-on-week at 13,000 yuan/ton [83]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of October 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production plan was 3.4472 million tons, an increase of 0.60% month-on-month and 4.75% year-on-year. As of October 17, the social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 12,400 tons week-on-week to 1.0412 million tons, a decrease of 1.18%. As of October 21, the number of stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 1.0 ton week-on-week to 74,500 tons, a decrease of 11.83% [86][89]. - **Cost and Profit**: After the holiday, the cost of stainless steel decreased. The price of high - nickel iron dropped to 940 yuan/nickel point, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome dropped to 8,400 yuan/50 - base ton. The price of 304 scrap stainless steel was 9,400 yuan/ton (ex - tax), a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The production cost of stainless steel is in an inverted state [94].