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港股异动 | 新疆新鑫矿业(03833)回落逾17% 公司近期宣布回A上市 机构称镍价上方仍然承压
智通财经网· 2025-10-10 06:19
消息面上,新疆新鑫矿业此前公告称,为推动公司持续稳定发展,促进收入及股东回报可持续增长,董 事会审议批准开展发行A股并在中国一家证券交易所上市的相关工作。根据半年报,新疆新鑫矿业旗下 全资拥有喀拉通克、黄山东、黄山和香山四座镍铜矿,拥有湘河街和穆家河两座钒矿,还有卡尔恰尔萤 石矿。 建银国际指出,短期因印尼修改RKAB规则以及加强矿业监管,叠加全球第二大铜矿进入不可抗力引发 全球金属供应担忧,导致节后首日镍价一举突破12.4万关口,但原生镍过剩基本面暂未出现实质性改 变,镍价上方仍然承压,需谨慎看待此轮反弹空间。 智通财经APP获悉,新疆新鑫矿业(03833)回落逾17%,年内累计涨幅仍超2.8倍。截至发稿,跌 17.38%,报2.9港元,成交额1.54亿港元。 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:假期有色行情提振,镍不锈钢价格拉涨-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:55
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-10 假期有色行情提振,镍不锈钢价格拉涨 镍品种 市场分析 2025-10-09日沪镍主力合约2511开于121300元/吨,收于124480元/吨,较前一交易日收盘变化2.39%,当日成交量为 130864(+3674)手,持仓量为86038(9898)手。 期货方面:昨日沪镍主力合约呈现高开高走、震荡上行的态势。国庆长假期间,国内方面出台文旅与基建新政, 强化了新能源与高端制造对关键金属的中长期需求预期。叠加市场对四季度 "稳增长" 政策加码的期待,基本金属 板块风险偏好显著提升。沪镍高开或部分反映了资金对政策红利的提前布局。海外方面,美联储 9 月降息 25BP 落 地后,市场对 10 月下旬议息会议进一步宽松的押注升温。美元指数昨日微跌 0.10% 至 98.76 点,人民币汇率同 步走强(美元兑人民币报 7.1280,上涨 0.13%),降低了以美元计价的进口镍成本,同时增强了国内市场的风险资 产配置意愿。 镍矿方面:节后镍矿市场观望为主,镍矿价格持稳运行。菲律宾方面,苏里高矿山即将步入雨季,矿山报价延续 坚挺。近期,菲律宾棉兰地区发生地震,经Mysteel ...
印尼暂停190项矿业经营许可影响有限 ESG合规或成关注焦点
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 08:47
SHMET 网讯:印度尼西亚能源和矿产资源部副部长尤利奥特·丹戎9月底宣布暂停190项矿业经营许 可,波及印尼多地煤炭、镍、金和锡等关键矿种运营,但调研发现,此举对中企在营矿山的生产和镍市 影响有限。在印尼政府收紧矿业合规标准和环保要求的背景下,中企投资印尼矿业的合规成本和环保风 险增加,业内人士建议入局印尼矿业投资前全面开展尽职调查,在ESG合规方面多做投入。 生产与镍价扰动微弱 记者调查了解到,此次暂停的矿业经营许可约占印尼有效矿业经营许可总数的4%,涉及煤炭、 镍、金、锡、铁矿等矿种,其中煤炭和镍矿项目占据了主要比例。煤炭超过75个运营项目受影响,或一 定程度削弱外贸和能源供给稳定性,镍矿则有25个运营资格被暂停,或进一步加剧资源供应脆弱性;此 外,金、锡、铁矿也有多项运营受波及。 地理范围上,中加里曼丹多个煤矿开采作业受影响、东南苏拉威西省主要镍产区、北马鲁古省部分 镍矿开采暂停,西巴布亚省拉贾安帕特群岛4家镍矿企业因违反环境法规被吊销采矿许可。 然而,记者调研发现,该政策对在产矿山实际产量扰动微弱,对镍价的边际影响有限。 印尼煤炭从业者Tjandra告诉记者,该事件的直接后果是违规开采活动暂停,长期 ...
【新华财经调查】印尼暂停190项矿业经营许可影响有限 ESG合规或成关注焦点
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 08:16
新华财经雅加达10月9日电 印度尼西亚能源和矿产资源部副部长尤利奥特·丹戎9月底宣布暂停190项矿业 经营许可,波及印尼多地煤炭、镍、金和锡等关键矿种运营,但调研发现,此举对中企在营矿山的生产 和镍市影响有限。在印尼政府收紧矿业合规标准和环保要求的背景下,中企投资印尼矿业的合规成本和 环保风险增加,业内人士建议入局印尼矿业投资前全面开展尽职调查,在ESG合规方面多做投入。 生产与镍价扰动微弱 记者调查了解到,此次暂停的矿业经营许可约占印尼有效矿业经营许可总数的4%,涉及煤炭、镍、 金、锡、铁矿等矿种,其中煤炭和镍矿项目占据了主要比例。煤炭超过75个运营项目受影响,或一定程 度削弱外贸和能源供给稳定性,镍矿则有25个运营资格被暂停,或进一步加剧资源供应脆弱性;此外, 金、锡、铁矿也有多项运营受波及。 地理范围上,中加里曼丹多个煤矿开采作业受影响、东南苏拉威西省主要镍产区、北马鲁古省部分镍矿 开采暂停,西巴布亚省拉贾安帕特群岛4家镍矿企业因违反环境法规被吊销采矿许可。 梳理矿业监管轨迹也发现,从2025年初开始,印尼部署了更为严格的合规监控系统,2025年中期,监管 机构对采矿作业进行了全面评估。普拉博沃明确表示 ...
取消40%关税!特朗普被下最后通牒,80岁总统掀桌子,不惯着美国
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 03:45
特朗普最近遭遇了巴西总统卢拉的"最后通牒",让很多人不禁好奇,这位80岁的巴西领导人究竟为何敢这么强硬地对待美国呢?究竟是谁拥有如此大的胆 量,让特朗普不敢轻易反驳? 事情要追溯到上个月,特朗普的美国商务部长威廉·卢特尼克曾公开表示,印度和巴西"需要被修理"。这话看似直接,实际上却透露出美国对这两个国家的 强烈不满。巴西,作为全球少数几个敢与美国在关税问题上"硬碰硬"的国家之一,尤其让特朗普头疼。除了在贸易问题上与美国针锋相对,巴西还通过向中 国出口大豆和玉米等产品,逐步蚕食了美国的市场份额。 尽管如此,美国面对巴西时,态度却没有像对待其他盟友那样傲慢。更有意思的是,特朗普居然也遭遇了"最后通牒"!事情发生在10月6日,巴西政府发布 公告称,卢拉与特朗普进行了电话会议。尽管特朗普在社交平台上称与卢拉的通话"非常愉快",但根据官方通报,实际情况却并非如此友好。卢拉在通话中 强硬要求美国撤销对巴西40%的关税,并再次强调美国对巴西官员的制裁是"不公正"的。 博索纳罗曾被称为"巴西版特朗普",与特朗普有着密切的私人关系。2022年巴西总统选举,卢拉击败博索纳罗当选,已经让特朗普心情不佳。而此次博索纳 罗被判重刑,更 ...
新疆新鑫矿业再涨超15% 宣布回A后股价接近翻倍 旗下拥有四座镍铜矿
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-08 02:18
新疆新鑫矿业(03833)再涨超15%,自9月25日宣布回A上市后股价接近翻倍。截至发稿,涨12.66%,报 3.47港元,成交额6508.76万港元。 消息面上,新疆新鑫矿业此前公告称,为推动公司持续稳定发展,促进收入及股东回报可持续增长,董 事会审议批准开展发行A股并在中国一家证券交易所上市的相关工作。根据半年报,新疆新鑫矿业旗下 全资拥有喀拉通克、黄山东、黄山和香山四座镍铜矿,拥有湘河街和穆家河两座钒矿,还有卡尔恰尔萤 石矿。 ...
节前交投清淡,镍不锈钢价格弱势运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 05:13
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, with the end of eleven consecutive inventory declines and the start of inventory accumulation, along with a gradual weakening of cost support, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a bottom - level oscillation [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 121,560 yuan/ton and closed at 121,100 yuan/ton, a - 0.61% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,757 (- 65,749) lots, and the open interest was 83,149 (- 735) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation with a trading range of less than 1,000 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 40% compared to the previous day due to the approaching National Day holiday [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic market was calm with stable prices. Near the holiday, the market was in a wait - and - see mode with no transactions. In the Philippines, Surigao mines are about to enter the rainy season, with firm quotes and good loading efficiency. Downstream iron plants are still in the red, maintaining a cautious and price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement, and there is no obvious pre - holiday stockpiling. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply remains in a loose pattern. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase I) is expected to rise by 0.16 - 0.28 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium is likely to rise [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,200 yuan/ton, a 600 - yuan decrease from the previous day. Spot trading was average, and the premium and discount of some brands decreased due to the monthly spread adjustment. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 325 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 25,057 (- 96) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 231,312 (1,188) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,850 yuan/ton and closed at 12,760 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 163,271 (- 12,046) lots, and the open interest was 87,251 (- 4,171) lots. The price showed an oscillating decline. After opening, it once reached the daily high of 12,855 yuan/ton but was suppressed by long - liquidation and short - increasing, finally closing 90 yuan lower than the previous day. The decrease in trading volume and open interest reflects the strong pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment of market participants and the obvious short - term capital withdrawal [3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the decline in the futures market and the loosening of nickel - based raw material prices, the confidence in the stainless - steel spot market is insufficient. Moreover, as most pre - holiday stockpiling is completed near the National Day holiday, the market is in a wait - and - see mode with light trading. Some traders are mainly busy with the delivery of previous orders. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets are 13,100 (- 50) yuan/ton, and the premium and discount of 304/2B are 330 - 630 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for stainless - steel is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5].
供需有改善,镍价暂时反弹
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-30 03:22
库存: 4 月 21 日,LME 镍库存较此前一周持平, SHFE 库存较前一周-775 吨,全球的二大交易所库存合计 4.26 万吨,较此前一周-775 吨。 供需方面:近期进口窗口持续关闭,俄镍偏紧升水与金川镍倒挂,交易所库存低位,一级镍市场供应健康。二级市场镍铁有消息传出不锈钢厂集中采购成交 价较此前有抬升,市场信心改善。消费端合金消费已有好转,支持镍价反弹。不过伴随镍价拉升,MHP 或硫酸镍生产电积镍利润空间恢复,从经济性角度 上看,后续如果持续大幅上涨电解镍生产线将加快投产,中期供应端过剩仍然或对镍形成压制。 观点:整体短期美指回落市场宏观压力有减,基本面俄镍偏紧,交易所库存低位,一级镍市场供应健康,消费端合金及不锈钢改善,短期镍价基本面改善镍 价偏好,但中期供应压力仍大,镍价上方空间预计有限。 镍矿方面,镍矿1.5%CIF均价50美元/湿吨,较此前一周下跌2美元,镍矿供需改善,跌势继续放缓。镍铁方面,上周五SMM8-12%高镍生铁均价1107.5元/镍 点,较前一周上涨55元/镍点。铁厂集体挺价意愿不断走高,同时下游不锈钢市场回暖,市场情绪上升。供需方面,近期进口窗口持续关闭,俄镍偏紧升水 与金川 ...
镍:底部运行,警惕供给端扰动
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:39
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31 号 镍:底部运行,警惕供给端扰动 报告日期 2025-9-29 四季度报告 ⚫ 观点总结 展望四季度,美联储降息路径仍有不确定性,国内稳增长政策有望陆 续出台,"反内卷"叙事影响反复,镍价仍受到宏观事件带来的阶段 性影响。基本面来看,原生镍过剩格局延续,需求端暂难有起色,镍 价料底部盘整,价格对供给端扰动更为敏感,四季度重点关注矿端消 息及宏观变化,纯镍估值区间可关注一体化电积镍生产成本(随矿价 浮动)。操作上以短线区间为主,可持续通过卖出虚值看涨期权等组 合策略增厚收益,注意控制风险。 ⚫ 风险提示 资源国镍相关政策变动、国内外宏观消息扰动、镍库存变化 从业资格证号:F3040017 投资咨询证号:Z0015788 LME&SHFE 镍价格走势 农产品指数与油脂期货价格走势 数据来源:Wind 往期相关报告 1.基本面暂乏驱动,镍不锈钢宽幅 震荡 2025.08.20 2.不锈钢期货震荡反弹,关注期现 正套机会 2025.08.05 3.印尼 PNBP 镍新政落地,影响如 何?2025.04.17 投资观点: 区间震荡 | 镍(NI) | | --- | 分析师: ...
2025年四季度镍&不锈钢策略报告-20250929
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:21
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of nickel ore in the fourth quarter still has significant room for release, but attention should be paid to possible policy changes in Indonesia [7]. - The stainless - steel industry in the nickel - iron - stainless - steel chain is supported by nickel - iron prices. The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory, but overall, it still faces great pressure. Concerns remain about potential inventory accumulation after holidays [7]. - In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material side is supported by tight supply, but the demand increase may be limited [7]. - For primary nickel, domestic production capacity still has a release plan. After de - stocking in the first half of the year due to some demand stimulation, recent inventory accumulation has begun to appear, dragging down nickel prices. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of nickel ore, premium, and primary nickel inventory should be focused on. If the supply is loose and primary nickel inventory accumulates, the price center will move further down [7]. - The price range for nickel is expected to be between 105,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Price/Base - spread/Spread/Ratio - Nickel price is affected by factors such as nickel - ore premium, cobalt export ban, inventory changes, and macro - sentiment. The price has experienced fluctuations including over - decline, recovery, and weak - range oscillations [13]. - For nickel base - spreads, spreads, and ratios, relevant charts show historical data trends, which can be used to analyze market conditions [15][17][19]. - For stainless - steel prices, ratios, and spreads, relevant charts show the trends of spot premium, contract spreads, and the ratio of nickel to stainless - steel, providing a basis for price analysis [23][25][27]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has been continuously increasing, exceeding 230,000 tons by the end of September, reaching the highest level in recent years, with significant Chinese brand deliveries. The inventory accumulation of Shanghai nickel is relatively less obvious, with the current social inventory at around 40,000 tons [9][30]. - **Stainless - steel**: The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory levels. The current stainless - steel inventory has decreased to around 980,000 tons, with the 300 - series dropping to 620,000 tons [9][33][37]. 3.3 Nickel Ore - **Policy**: Indonesia has strengthened the role of the "government's hand" through systems such as SIMBARA and MOMS, and adjusted nickel - product royalties. The Philippines' plan to ban nickel - ore exports was revoked in mid - June [40][41]. - **Supply and Demand**: From January to August 2025, China's nickel - ore imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 26.1335 million wet tons, and port inventory was about 9.71 million wet tons. By the end of September, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore was 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton [5][44]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: Refined - nickel production capacity has been continuously expanding, with a monthly production capacity of around 54,000 tons by the end of August. The production using externally sourced raw materials is mostly unprofitable, while integrated MHP production is profitable. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by about 26% year - on - year to 260,000 tons. The cumulative imports increased by 178% year - on - year to 159,000 tons, exports increased by 69% year - on - year to 122,000 tons, and net imports were 37,000 tons [5][47]. - **Demand**: Apparent consumption has increased significantly year - on - year, exports have slowed down, and the domestic electroplating demand has increased relatively obviously [50]. - **Balance**: With the continuous release of production capacity and the weakening of internal - external price differences, the surplus has expanded [9]. 3.5 Nickel - Iron - Stainless - Steel - **Supply**: Affected by the rising nickel - ore prices and average stainless - steel demand, the nickel - iron smelting profit has been squeezed, and the domestic operating rate has continued to decline. From January to August, the cumulative production decreased by 8% year - on - year to 20,000 nickel tons. The nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia has slightly expanded, and production has been continuously released, with the cumulative production from January to August increasing by 17% year - on - year to 1.113 million nickel tons [5][53]. - **Production and Sales of Stainless - Steel**: From January to August, China's cumulative stainless - steel production increased by 6% year - on - year to 26.33 million tons, and Indonesia's cumulative production increased by 4% year - on - year to 3.23 million tons. From January to August, cumulative imports decreased by 23% year - on - year to 1.02 million tons, cumulative exports increased by 3% year - on - year to 3.36 million tons, and net exports were 2.35 million tons. From January to August, stainless - steel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 22.115 million tons [5][6][58]. - **Profit**: Nickel - iron prices first declined and then rose, but generally remained at a low level in the past three years. Chromium - iron prices have strengthened periodically since the beginning of the year, and the theoretical immediate profit has been mostly in the red [61]. 3.6 New Energy - **Raw Materials**: The marginal production scheduling of ternary materials has increased, and the cobalt ban has boosted the demand for MHP, with the spot price strengthening. From January to August, the supply of Indonesian MHP increased by 56% year - on - year to 285,000 nickel tons, and the high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 38% year - on - year to 115,000 nickel tons. From January to August, MHP imports increased by 20% year - on - year to 220,000 nickel tons, and nickel - matte imports decreased by 12% year - on - year to 270,000 tons. From January to August, domestic nickel - sulfate production decreased by 16% year - on - year to 210,000 nickel tons, and imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 160,000 tons [5][10][78]. - **Production**: In 2025, from January to September, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year - on - year at 620,000 tons; from January to September, the cumulative production of ternary materials increased by 11% year - on - year to 567,000 tons; from January to August, the production of ternary power cells increased by 16% year - on - year to 242 GWh, the production of ternary batteries increased by 15% year - on - year to 255.7 GWh, the installed capacity decreased by 10% year - on - year to 77.3 GWh, and the inventory decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year to 30.34 GWh [6][10][90].