1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of nickel have changed relatively little, but the expectation of oversupply remains. Nickel prices are temporarily fluctuating in line with macro - sentiment. This week, the price of nickel ore has slightly declined, the arrival volume of nickel ore has increased, and domestic port inventories are showing a tendency to accumulate. On the smelting side, the production of refined nickel is running smoothly, the loss of ferronickel plants has narrowed, and the supply remains at a low level [3]. - In the short term, the supply of tin is relatively sufficient, and the market recovery is mainly supported by macro - news. The supply of nickel ore in the third quarter is expected to be relatively abundant, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may be weak. The price of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore has rebounded in the first half of August, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of NPI has continued to rise this week, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel sulfate remains tight [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Cost**: As of August 11, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content decreased by 0, 1, and 1 US dollars per wet ton respectively compared to last week, reaching 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars per wet ton. The domestic trade nickel ore prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% in Indonesia increased by 0 and 0.2 US dollars per wet ton respectively to 24.8 and 52.3 US dollars per wet ton as of August 8. The freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang decreased by 0.5 US dollars per wet ton to 12 and 11 US dollars per wet ton respectively last week. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 5 yuan per nickel point to 919 yuan per nickel point as of August 11, a 0.55% increase [3][27]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase. The national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.59% decrease. As of August 12, the LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 492 tons to 211,700 tons, a 0.23% increase. The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1,086 tons to 40,600 tons, a 2.75% increase [3][41]. - **Profitability**: As of August 12, the cash - cost production profit margin of RKEF in Fujian increased by 0.97 percentage points to - 9.8% [3]. Tin - **Monthly Balance Sheet**: The report provides a monthly balance sheet for tin from January to December 2025, including data on total production, imports, exports, total consumption, surplus, year - on - year supply and consumption changes, and cumulative year - on - year supply and consumption changes [4]. Refined Nickel - **Device Operation**: As of August 12, 2025, domestic electrolytic nickel plants in regions such as Gansu, Xinjiang, and Jilin are operating stably, while some plants in Zhejiang are operating at reduced loads or are temporarily shut down [36]. - **Production and Trade**: As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase. As of June 2025, China's refined nickel monthly exports decreased by 27.41% to 10,100 tons, and imports decreased by 3.0% to 17,000 tons [38]. - **Inventory**: As of August 12, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 230 tons to 20,700 tons, a 1.10% decrease. LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 492 tons to 211,700 tons, a 0.23% increase. The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1,086 tons to 40,600 tons, a 2.75% increase [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel increased by 70 US dollars per ton to 13,095 US dollars per ton, a 0.54% increase. The production profit margins of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel increased by 3.7 and 2.2 percentage points respectively to 2.3% and - 4.7% [46]. Nickel Sulfate - **Device Operation**: Nickel sulfate plants in regions such as Jilin, Gansu, and Guangdong are operating stably, while some plants in Guangxi, Tianjin, and Jiangxi are operating at reduced loads or are shut down [52][56]. - **Production and Trade**: As of July 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly production increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons, a 17.3% increase. As of June 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly imports decreased by 27.35% to 13,300 tons, and exports increased by 3.66% to 782.1 tons [55]. - **Cost and Profit**: Recently, the spot cost of nickel salts has increased, and nickel salt plants are continuing to hold prices. As of August 12, the profit margins of MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag for producing nickel sulfate decreased by 1.1, 0.9, 0.7, and 0.7 percentage points respectively to - 2.1%, - 5.2%, 3.3%, and - 3% [60]. Ferronickel - **Device Operation**: Ferronickel plants in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions are operating at reduced loads or are shut down for maintenance [68]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of July 2025, the national ferronickel production (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.59% decrease. As of July 31, the national main - region ferronickel inventory increased by 182 tons to 33,400 nickel tons, a 0.55% increase [70][76]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 12, the cash - cost production profit margin of RKEF in Fujian increased by 0.97 percentage points to - 9.8% [76]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: Last week, the stainless - steel futures main contract ss2509 increased by 1.13%. As of August 12, the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge in Wuxi increased by 250 yuan per ton to 13,250 yuan per ton, a 1.92% increase [79]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 0.49 million tons to 1.1063 million tons, a 0.44% decrease. As of August 12, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,075 tons to 103,900 tons, a 1.05% increase [82]. - **Production and Trade**: As of August 2025, the national stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.59% to 3.2298 million tons. As of June 2025, China's stainless - steel monthly imports decreased by 12.48% to 109,500 tons, and exports decreased by 10.63% to 390,000 tons [85]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 12, the cash cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in China decreased by 22 yuan per ton to 13,026 yuan per ton, a 0.16% decrease. The profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils increased by 2.02 percentage points to - 1.46% [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel have changed little, and they are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The supply - surplus pattern of refined nickel persists, and the supply - demand surplus situation of stainless steel is also difficult to change. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for both nickel and 304 stainless steel [1][5][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Cost - In July, the premium of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore remained at $24 - 26 per wet ton, with the base price slightly down by 0.2%. Due to weak demand, the price of nickel ore from the Surigao mining area in the Philippines continued to decline. The CIF price of NI1.3% from the Philippines to China dropped to $42 - 44 per wet ton, and NI1.5% dropped to $57 - 59 per wet ton. The costs of various refining nickel processes fluctuated slightly, with the cost of externally purchased nickel sulfate and MHP at about 133,000 yuan per ton, the cost of high - grade nickel matte and laterite nickel ore high - grade nickel matte integration at about 126,000 yuan per ton, and the cost of laterite nickel ore MHP integration at about 105,000 yuan per ton [2][7]. Supply - In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative production was 210,349 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41.50%. The estimated production in July was 36,745 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.46% and a year - on - year increase of 26.62%. From January to June 2025, Indonesia's cumulative refined nickel production was 33,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.15%. The estimated production in July was 7,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.54% and a year - on - year increase of 114.29% [3][56]. Consumption - In June 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 33,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.19% and a year - on - year increase of 80.62%. From January to June, the cumulative consumption was 167,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.41%. The stainless steel production schedule in July was 3.3623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91%, among which the 300 - series was 1.7912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [4]. Inventory - As of August 1, the global visible inventory of refined nickel was 253,000 tons, including 209,000 tons in LME inventory and 39,500 tons in domestic social inventory, a decrease of 796 tons compared with July 25 [4]. Valuation - In the short term, the cost support at the mine end is weakened due to the low utilization rate of the RKAB quota in Indonesia (only 120 million tons in the first half of the year) and the decline in the price of Philippine nickel ore. In the long term, the pattern of industrial over - supply remains unchanged. Although Norilsk Nickel has lowered its 2025 production guidance to 196,000 - 204,000 tons, the annual surplus is still estimated to be 120,000 tons. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate in the range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan [4]. View and Strategy - The recent market sentiment has cooled down. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is around 123,000 - 125,000 yuan, and the lower limit is around 117,000 - 118,000 yuan. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations [5][6]. 304 Stainless Steel Variety Cost - Similar to nickel ore costs in the nickel variety, the cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel is about 12,800 yuan per ton. The cost of Indonesian ferronickel is 920 - 930 yuan per nickel, and the domestic cost is 1,020 - 1,025 yuan per nickel. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome has dropped to 7,700 - 7,900 yuan per 50 - base ton [7]. Supply - In July 2025, the crude steel production of 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 3.2916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95% and a year - on - year increase of 0.09%, among which the 300 - series was 1.744 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28%. The estimated production in August is expected to rebound to 3.3623 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.14%, and the 300 - series is 1.7912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.71% [7]. Consumption - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of domestic stainless steel was 2.7807 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.42% and a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. The estimated export volume in July was 380,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.0%, and the impact of the US tariff policy is gradually emerging [7]. Inventory - According to Mysteel data on July 31, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the national mainstream markets (89 - warehouse caliber) was 1,111,189 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.66%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 627,071 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.26%, and the inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 484,118 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.83%. For the 300 - series, the total inventory was 676,670 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1% [8]. View and Strategy - The recent market sentiment of stainless steel has cooled down. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is around 13,500 yuan, and the lower limit is around 12,400 yuan. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations between 12,400 - 13,500 yuan [9][10]. Global and Chinese Primary Nickel Supply - Demand Situation Global Primary Nickel - In the first half of 2025, the global primary nickel supply was about 1.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10%. The supply of refined nickel and Indonesian NPI increased significantly, with year - on - year growth rates of 11% and 21% respectively, while the global FeNi decreased significantly by nearly 13%. The consumption growth rates of the stainless steel and alloy industries were relatively high, with the stainless steel consumption growth rate at about 7.5% and the alloy consumption year - on - year growth rate close to 5%. In the first half of the year, the global primary nickel supply was sufficient, with a slight inventory build - up. It is expected that both supply and demand will continue to grow in the second half of 2025. The annual supply is expected to reach 3.77 million tons, a year - on - year growth rate of about 4.7%, and the consumption is about 3.65 million tons, a year - on - year growth rate of 4.9%. The annual surplus is estimated to be 150,000 tons [19]. Chinese Primary Nickel - In the first half of 2025, China's total primary nickel supply was about 1.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The import of primary nickel increased by 5% year - on - year, and the import of ferronickel increased significantly. The domestic production of nickel pig iron also increased. From the overall supply - demand data, the inventory increased by 120,000 tons in the first half of the year, indicating a relatively loose supply. It is expected that both supply and demand will continue to grow in 2025. The total annual primary nickel supply is expected to be 2.5 million tons, the consumption is 2.28 million tons, and the surplus is 250,000 tons [35]. Stainless Steel Industry Production and Capacity - As of July 2025, the national monthly stainless steel production schedule is expected to be 3.47 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%. Among them, the 200 - series production schedule is 1.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.9%, the 300 - series is 1.76 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%, and the 400 - series is 650,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% [118]. Terminal Consumption - The terminal consumption of 300 - series stainless steel is relatively dispersed, and is more correlated with the macro - economic level. The real estate sector is the main drag factor, while the home appliance sector is the main factor boosting consumption, driven by policies such as "trade - in" and "national subsidies" [141]. Profit Level - As of July 2025, for the short - process smelting of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel, the cost was 12,627 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56 yuan per ton, and the profit margin was 0.18%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. For the process of purchasing high - grade ferronickel externally, the cost was 12,897 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6 yuan per ton, and the profit margin was - 1.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04%. For the process of using low - grade ferronickel + pure nickel, the cost was 15,890 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 44 yuan per ton, and the profit margin was - 20.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22% [166].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent market sentiment may partially ebb. Amid the game between weak reality and strong expectations, the fundamentals and macro - logic of nickel may fluctuate. This week, the ore price declined slightly month - on - month, and the cost support for nickel is weak. Attention should still be paid to the policy guidance from Indonesia, such as the APNI Association's hope to re - evaluate the nickel ore pricing formula [3][4]. - The stainless steel market has improved somewhat, but it is still in the off - season, with limited overall demand release and insufficient price increase momentum. Currently, the supply remains high, and the short - term supply - demand pattern improvement is limited. Stainless steel may maintain a range - bound trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Cost**: - As of July 28, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were $29, $58, and $79.5 per wet ton respectively, down $1, $0.5, and $1 from last week [3][32]. - As of July 25, the ex - factory prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia were $25 and $52.1 per wet ton respectively, down $0 and $0.1 from last week [3][32]. - As of July 28, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was $912 per nickel point, up $10.5 or 1.16% from last week [3][28]. - As of July 28, the FOB price of MHP was $12,716 per ton, up $407 or 3.30% from last week; the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte was $13,281 per ton, up $392 or 3.03% from last week [38]. - As of July 28, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was $123,200 per ton, up $350 or 0.28% from last week [16]. - As of July 28, the price of Jinchuan nickel was $124,250 per ton, up $400 or 0.32% from last week; the premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by $150 to $2,150 per ton [17]. - As of July 28, the price of imported nickel was $122,500 per ton, up $300 or 0.25% from last week; the premium of imported nickel increased by $50 to $400 per ton [17]. - **Supply**: - As of July 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26% [3][43]. - As of June 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.16 thousand tons to 25.64 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [3][73]. - As of June 2025, Indonesia's nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.46 million tons to 13.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.26% [73]. - As of July 2025, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 0.07 million tons to 3.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84%; high - grade nickel matte production increased by 0.08 million tons to 1.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.30% [38]. - As of June 2025, the monthly MHP import volume was 12.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.21%; the monthly high - grade nickel matte import volume was 2.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% [38]. - **Inventory**: - As of July 25, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 32 million tons to 747 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.48% [34]. - As of July 28, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 158 tons to 2.19 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71%; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 0.38 million tons to 20.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.85% [47]. - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) decreased by 57 tons to 4.03 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14% [3][47]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Cost**: - As of July 28, the 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation was $12,900 per ton, unchanged from last week [84]. - As of July 25, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel coils decreased by $97 per ton to $13,076 per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71%; the profit margin increased by 1.41 percentage points to - 4.42% [94]. - **Supply and Demand**: - As of June 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 17.13 million tons to 329.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95% [3][90]. - As of June 2025, China's monthly stainless steel import volume was 10.95 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.61%; the monthly export volume was 39.0 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.51% [90]. - **Inventory**: - As of July 25, the stainless steel market inventory decreased by 2.92 million tons to 111.86 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54% [3][86]. - As of July 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 303 tons to 10.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29% [86]. Tin - The tin monthly balance sheet shows data from January to December 2025, including total production, imports, exports, total consumption, surplus, supply year - on - year, consumption year - on - year, supply cumulative year - on - year, and consumption cumulative year - on - year [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel prices are likely to be subject to the long - short game between reality and expectations, continuing to fluctuate in the short term. If the long - term mine - end logic weakens, there may be a trading logic of "de - valuation - de - production" pressure on refined nickel [1]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Negative feedback and inventory pressure will weigh on the short - term market, while the cost side limits the downward elasticity. Increased production cuts in June will ease the pressure in the long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Fundamental Analysis - **Mine end**: The short - term support logic of the nickel ore end remains unchanged. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore in June in some parks is determined, with the margin flat compared to May. The market's concern about the increase in Indonesian quotas has cooled, and the convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore [1]. - **Smelting end**: The global visible inventory accumulation is less than expected due to replenishment demand, but the overall inventory is high. There is still an expectation of more potential supply release in the medium term, and nickel prices may face "de - valuation - de - production" pressure, which restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices [1]. Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: The production schedule of stainless steel in China in June is 3.239 million tons, with a year - on - year/month - on - month decrease of 1%/5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has dropped to 4%. Two Indonesian stainless steel producers have marginally cut production, with the production schedule in June at 360,000 tons, a year - on - year/month - on - month decrease of 9%/0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has dropped to - 2%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's stainless steel import supply is expected to drop to nearly - 28% in June, and the total supply (production + imports) growth rate may be adjusted down to about 2.2% [2]. - **Demand side**: The short - term off - season and the digestion pressure of the previous high production schedule limit the upside elasticity of steel prices. The demand growth rate is expected to be around 2% - 3%. If production cuts are implemented as scheduled from June to July, the long - term oversupply pressure may be alleviated to some extent [2]. - **Cost side**: The negative feedback of production cuts puts pressure on ferronickel, which gives up some profits, but the Indonesian ore end still provides short - term support for ferronickel, thus supporting the cost of stainless steel [2]. Inventory Changes - **Refined nickel**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,789 tons to 38,000 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 726 tons to 200,106 tons [3]. - **Ferronickel**: The ferronickel inventory at the end of May was 31,462 tons, with a year - on - year/month - on - month increase of 59%/6%, and the inventory pressure increased marginally [4]. - **Stainless steel**: The stainless steel social inventory was 1,122,258 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 680,552 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.71% [4][5]. - **Nickel ore**: China's port nickel ore inventory decreased by 290,200 wet tons to 6.9686 million wet tons [5]. Market News - In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF successfully produced ferronickel, entering the trial production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [6]. - An overseas nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6]. - The Philippine parliament is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there is market news that the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [6]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue production suspension and maintenance from June to July, which is expected to affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [7].