镍期货市场：美指跌至六个月低位多重利好共振，隔周沪镍主力合约最新收报1.06%；海外市场适逢圣 诞假期休市暂无外盘数据更新，国内方面，夜盘沪期镍高位运行，尾盘大幅收涨，沪镍主力合约2602最 新收报128140元/吨，上涨1340元/吨，涨幅为1.06%； 需求端：传统与新兴引擎双双乏力 需求侧未能提供有效支撑。占大头的不锈钢领域受制于终端房地产与制造业的疲软，钢厂对原料的采购 以按需为主，拉动有限。被寄予厚望的新能源领域，则因磷酸铁锂电池技术路线主导市场，导致高镍三 元电池的增长不及预期，对硫酸镍的需求提振作用尚未显现。合金、电镀等传统需求亦表现平淡。 产业链与后市：在博弈中等待破局 产业链各环节处境分化：上游因政策预期获得心理支撑；中游冶炼厂则在成本高企与产品价格低迷的双 重挤压下艰难求生；下游加工企业则对高价接受度低，多持观望态度，市场呈现"上游热、下游冷"的传 导阻滞。 综合来看，镍价短期内将维持"上有顶、下有底"的震荡格局。上方压力来自高库存和疲软的基本面现 实；下方支撑则源于遥远的政策预期及部分高成本产能的亏损线。市场突破需要更强的驱动，未来需紧 密跟踪印尼政策的最终落地情况，以及新能源领域需求能 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view on nickel is that it will be in a volatile state. The price of nickel ore at the raw material end remains high, and with the coming of the rainy season in the Philippines, the shipment volume of nickel ore is hindered, and mines have a strong attitude to hold prices. The fundamentals of pure nickel remain weak, but short - term macro - sentiment may still be priced in, and it is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate widely [3]. - The short - term stainless steel market is operating weakly. The downward shift of cost support and the imbalance between supply and demand jointly suppress steel prices. After the "Silver October" peak season, downstream buyers mainly purchase for rigid demand and resist high - priced resources, making it difficult to provide upward momentum for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Price and Market Conditions - As of October 27, the spot price of electrolytic nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 123,050 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.78% increase; the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 124,300 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase; the price of imported nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 122,250 yuan/ton, a 0.78% increase [15]. - As of October 27, the LME nickel price increased by 105 dollars/ton to 15,335 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.69% increase; the LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium decreased by 0.3 dollars/ton to - 205.18 dollars/ton [19]. - As of October 27, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 9 yuan/nickel point to 928.5 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 0.96% decrease [3][27]. 3.1.2 Supply - As of September 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.56 million tons month - on - month, a 1.14% increase, and a 13.07% increase year - on - year [3][49]. - As of September 2025, China's monthly refined nickel export volume was 1.41 million tons, a 6.22% decrease month - on - month, and a 33.21% increase year - on - year; the monthly import volume was 2.84 million tons, a 17.29% increase month - on - month, and a 378.85% increase year - on - year [49]. - As of October 27, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 2,912 tons to 29,800 tons week - on - week, a 10.84% increase; LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 762 tons to 251,200 tons week - on - week, a 0.30% increase [50]. 3.1.3 Demand - The battery field is the core driver of demand. The penetration of high - nickel battery technology is increasing, and new - energy vehicle manufacturers have stable production, increasing the procurement demand for high - purity nickel sulfate. The electroplating field benefits from the peak season of consumer electronics, driving up the inquiry volume of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate [4]. 3.2 Nickel Ore Market 3.2.1 Price - As of October 27, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore increased by 1 dollar/wet ton to 30, 58, and 79.5 dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week [3][32]. - As of October 24, the ex - works prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia remained unchanged at 23 and 52.8 dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week [3][32]. - Last week, the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang remained unchanged at 12.5 and 11.5 dollars/wet ton respectively [3][32]. 3.2.2 Supply - As of October 24, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 29 million tons to 10.24 million wet tons week - on - week, a 2.75% decrease [35]. - In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a 3.51% decrease month - on - month, and a 34.43% increase year - on - year. Among them, the import volume from the Philippines was 5.8174 million tons, a 1.93% decrease month - on - month [35]. 3.3 Nickel Intermediate Product Market - As of October 27, the FOB price of MHP increased by 24 dollars/ton to 13,184 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.18% increase; the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte increased by 24 dollars/ton to 13,489 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.18% increase [41]. - As of September 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP decreased by 0.08 million tons to 4.07 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.93% decrease; the production of high - grade nickel matte increased by 0.53 million tons to 2.26 million tons month - on - month, a 30.64% increase [41]. - As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of MHP was 1.905 million tons, a 11.66% increase month - on - month, and a 67.38% increase year - on - year; the monthly import volume of high - grade nickel matte was 0.568 million tons, a 236.44% increase month - on - month, and a 65.93% increase year - on - year [41]. 3.4 Nickel Sulfate Market - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel sulfate production increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.40 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 11.45% increase. The production of domestic nickel sulfate increased, and the operating rate was also adjusted upwards. Recently, some salt plants that had undergone maintenance have restored production capacity, and the production volume has slightly increased due to contract processing orders. However, the overall inventory is at a low level, and the volume of spot sales is limited, and the market supply continues to be in a tight pattern [62]. - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel sulfate import volume was 2.95 million tons, a 2.51% decrease month - on - month, and a 36.24% increase year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 806,420 tons, a 58.96% increase month - on - month, and a 75.81% decrease year - on - year [62]. 3.5 Nickel Iron Market 3.5.1 Production - As of September 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.23 million tons to 2.29 million tons month - on - month, a 9.30% decrease. Most domestic nickel iron manufacturers maintain a normal production rhythm, but due to the narrowing profit margin and weak demand, the overall industry operating rate is at a low level [78]. - As of September 2025, the production of nickel pig iron in Indonesia increased by 0.2 million tons to 13.99 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.45% increase [78]. 3.5.2 Import - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel iron import volume was 1.0853 million tons (converted to metal content of 136,400 tons), a 24.16% increase month - on - month, and a 47.19% increase year - on - year. The latest data shows that the import volume of nickel iron from Indonesia has increased significantly, exacerbating the domestic oversupply situation [78]. 3.5.3 Profit - As of October 27, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian increased by 2.94 yuan/nickel point to 1,002.96 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, and the production profit margin decreased by 1.17 percentage points to - 7.42% [84]. 3.6 Stainless Steel Market 3.6.1 Price - Last week, the stainless steel main contract ss2512 opened at 12,620 yuan/ton and closed at 12,810 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 12,840 yuan/ton and a low of 12,565 yuan/ton, a 1.43% weekly increase. The futures market showed an upward trend, but the boost to the spot market was limited [87]. 3.6.2 Production - As of October 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production plan was 3.4472 million tons, a 0.60% increase month - on - month, and a 4.75% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production plan for the 200 - series was 1.035 million tons, a 1.35% increase month - on - month; the 300 - series was 1.7649 million tons, a 0.12% increase month - on - month; the 400 - series was 0.6293 million tons, a 0.69% increase month - on - month [90]. 3.6.3 Inventory - As of October 24, the stainless steel social inventory decreased by 13,800 tons to 1.0274 million tons week - on - week, a 1.33% decrease. Among them, the 300 - series inventory decreased by 5,800 tons to 649,300 tons week - on - week, a 0.89% decrease [93]. - As of October 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 601 tons to 73,900 tons week - on - week, a 0.81% decrease [93]. 3.6.4 Cost - As of October 28, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 78 yuan/ton to 12,904 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.60% decrease [96].

Core Insights - The global nickel market is experiencing a significant supply surplus, with refined nickel production outpacing consumption, leading to a supply excess of 30.51 million tons from January to August 2025 [1][2] - Domestic refined nickel production in China has increased substantially, with a year-on-year growth of 37.48% during the same period, while the industry operating rate remains high at 94.07% [2] - The stainless steel sector, a major consumer of nickel, is facing challenges with weak demand despite a slight increase in production, while the new energy sector shows signs of recovery [3] Supply Dynamics - Global refined nickel production reached 2.5494 million tons from January to August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 301,600 tons, while consumption was only 2.2443 million tons [1] - Nickel ore imports in China totaled 26.1336 million tons, up 6.47% year-on-year, and nickel iron imports rose by 28.1% to 7.267 million tons [1] - The supply surplus is expected to worsen, with forecasts indicating a surplus of 198,000 tons in 2025 and 256,000 tons in 2026 [1] Demand Challenges - The stainless steel industry is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (peak season not prosperous) scenario, with prices declining and high nickel iron prices falling below production costs [3] - The new energy sector shows a potential rebound, with a reported 11% increase in sulfate nickel production in August, driven by higher operating rates of ternary precursors [3] - Alloy demand is uneven, with strong growth in global automotive sales supporting nickel demand, while the electronics sector remains weak [3] Inventory and Price Outlook - Nickel inventories are at high levels, with SHFE nickel warehouse receipts up 13% year-on-year and LME nickel inventories surging 72% [4] - The nickel market is characterized by a significant divergence of opinions, with factors such as potential Fed rate cuts and supportive policies for new energy providing some price support, while ongoing supply surplus and high inventories limit price increases [4] - The nickel market is expected to remain in a volatile state unless there is a substantial improvement in supply-demand fundamentals [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view on nickel is that it will experience a sideways trend. The stable price of nickel ore at the raw material end provides cost support for the industrial chain. Recently, the continuous increase in nickel inventories at home and abroad has gradually shown an oversupply pressure, limiting the upside space for nickel prices. In the medium to long term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle, combined with the start of the new annual RKAB approval in Indonesia, will inject potential upward momentum into nickel prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Overview - **Price and Inventory**: Last week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel (2511) opened at 122,190 yuan/ton and closed at 121,160 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.83%. As of October 20, the spot price of electrolytic nickel decreased by 350 yuan/ton week-on-week to 122,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%. As of October 17, the social inventory of refined nickel (including the SHFE) increased by 4,014 tons week-on-week to 47,700 tons, a rise of 9.19% [7][13][45]. - **Export and Import Profits**: As of October 17, the LME nickel price decreased by 105 dollars/ton week-on-week to 15,110 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.69%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic nickel increased by 805.27 yuan/ton week-on-week to -677.13 yuan/ton, a rise of 54.32%, while the export profit and loss decreased by 52.13 dollars/ton to -66.76 dollars/ton [18]. - **NPI and Sulfuric Acid Nickel Prices**: As of October 21, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 11 yuan/nickel point week-on-week to 936 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 1.16%. As of October 20, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 150 yuan/ton week-on-week to 28,550 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.53% [24]. Nickel Ore - **Price and Supply**: As of October 20, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore remained flat week-on-week at 29, 57, and 78.5 dollars/wet ton respectively. As of October 17, the ex - factory prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia increased by 0 and 0.1 dollars/wet ton week-on-week to 23 and 52.8 dollars/wet ton respectively. The freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang remained flat week-on-week at 12.5 and 11.5 dollars/wet ton respectively [29]. - **Inventory and Import**: As of October 17, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 30,000 tons week-on-week to 10.53 million wet tons, a rise of 0.29%, equivalent to about 87,200 nickel tons in metal content. In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a decrease of 3.51% month-on-month and an increase of 34.43% year-on-year [31]. Refined Nickel - **Production and Trade**: As of September 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 400 tons month-on-month to 35,600 tons, a rise of 1.14% month-on-month and 13.07% year-on-year. The monthly export volume of refined nickel was 14,100 tons, a decrease of 6.22% month-on-month and an increase of 33.21% year-on-year, while the monthly import volume was 28,400 tons, an increase of 17.29% month-on-month and 378.85% year-on-year [44]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel increased by 82 dollars/ton month-on-month to 13,136 dollars/ton, a rise of 0.63%. The production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel decreased by 723 and 1,168 yuan/ton respectively to 116,448 yuan/ton and 124,802 yuan/ton, and the profit margins increased by 1.2 and 1.4 percentage points respectively to 4.4% and -2.6% [51]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Production and Trade**: As of September 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 3,500 tons month-on-month to 34,000 nickel tons, a rise of 11.45%. The monthly import volume was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 2.51% month-on-month and an increase of 36.24% year-on-year, while the monthly export volume was 806.42 tons, an increase of 58.96% month-on-month and a decrease of 75.81% year-on-year [58]. - **Cost and Profit**: Recently, the coefficients of major primary raw materials such as MHP and high - grade nickel matte have remained basically stable. As of October 20, the profit margins of MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag for producing sulfuric acid nickel increased by 1.3, 0.1, 1.4, and 0.1 percentage points respectively week-on-week to 0.5%, -0.5%, 7%, and 0% [62]. Ferronickel - **Production and Price**: As of September 2025, the national ferronickel production (in metal content) decreased by 2,300 tons month-on-month to 22,900 tons, a decrease of 9.30%. The production in Indonesia increased by 2,000 tons month-on-month to 139,900 nickel tons, a rise of 1.45%. As of October 21, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 11 yuan/nickel point week-on-week to 936 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 1.16% [24][73]. - **Inventory and Profit**: As of October 15, the ferronickel inventory in major domestic regions decreased by 174 tons compared to September 30 to 29,100 nickel tons (average grade of 11.48%), a decrease of 0.60%. As of October 20, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian increased by 0.97 yuan/nickel point week-on-week to 1,000.02 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin decreased by 1.49 percentage points to -6.25% [78]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: Last week, the main contract of stainless steel (ss2512) opened at 12,800 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. As of October 20, the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge in Wuxi remained flat week-on-week at 13,000 yuan/ton [83]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of October 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production plan was 3.4472 million tons, an increase of 0.60% month-on-month and 4.75% year-on-year. As of October 17, the social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 12,400 tons week-on-week to 1.0412 million tons, a decrease of 1.18%. As of October 21, the number of stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 1.0 ton week-on-week to 74,500 tons, a decrease of 11.83% [86][89]. - **Cost and Profit**: After the holiday, the cost of stainless steel decreased. The price of high - nickel iron dropped to 940 yuan/nickel point, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome dropped to 8,400 yuan/50 - base ton. The price of 304 scrap stainless steel was 9,400 yuan/ton (ex - tax), a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The production cost of stainless steel is in an inverted state [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic situation: US Q2 economic data was strong, with GDP and personal consumption growth exceeding expectations. The core PCE growth slowed in August, and the risk of stagflation seemed to subside. Fed officials had differences on the interest - rate cut path, and the market bet on a 25bp rate cut in October. In China, the interest - rate benchmark remained unchanged, with expectations of RRR and interest - rate cuts [3]. - Fundamental situation: The conflict in the Middle East had limited impact on overseas nickel mines, mainly affecting the loading and unloading efficiency of southern Chinese ports. The Boroy typhoon might have affected Philippine nickel mines, but the ore price was stable. Nickel - iron plants faced cost pressure, and the game on nickel - ore prices between upstream and downstream continued. Some nickel - sulfate manufacturers stopped production, with prices firm but limited price - increase power for nickel salts. The trading of pure nickel did not improve [3]. - Future outlook: With expected disturbances in the macro and resource aspects, nickel prices may fluctuate widely. During the National Day, overseas economic data will be released, and the domestic market closure may bring more uncertainties. Indonesia will announce a new RKAB approval plan in October, making the supply outlook of the ore end uncertain. The market trading is expected to be cold before the holiday, and nickel prices may fluctuate, with attention to overseas market disturbances during the holiday [3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Variety | 2025/9/26 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 121380 | 121500 | - 120 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15166.91 | 15271 | - 104.09 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 230124 | 228444 | 1680 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 25153 | 25843 | - 690 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2350 | 2400 | - 50 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 350 | 450 | - 100 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 961 | 961 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 82.4 | 81.9 | 0.49 | Tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - **Macroeconomic data**: The market bet that the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut in October was 85.5%. The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was 3.8%, personal consumption expenditure was 2.5%, and the core PCE price index was 2.6%. The initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20 were 218,000. The August core PCE price index annual rate was 2.9%, and personal expenditure monthly rate was 0.6% [5]. - **Nickel - ore market**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines was stable at 49 US dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia was 37.65 US dollars/wet ton. The domestic nickel - ore port inventory was 971 million tons as of September 19, a significant increase of 18 million tons from the previous period but still lower than last year [6]. - **Pure - nickel market**: In August, China's refined - nickel production was 35,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.55%. The monthly production capacity was about 53,699 tons, and the operating rate was 66%. The profit margins of MHP and integrated high - matte nickel improved. In August, China imported 24,186 tons of refined nickel, a significant year - on - year increase but a month - on - month decrease. The export volume was about 15,048 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.12%. As of September 26, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was 164.32 US dollars/ton [7][8]. - **Nickel - iron market**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) fluctuated around 954.5 yuan/nickel point. In August, China's nickel - iron production was 25,280 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.77%, and Indonesia's was 137,900 nickel tons, a year - on - month and month - on - month increase. As of September 15, the nickel - iron inventory decreased slightly. Nickel - iron plants still faced losses, and the raw - material inventory was cautious [8]. - **Stainless - steel market**: In August, the production plan of China's 300 - series stainless steel was about 1.79 million tons. As of September 25, the inventory was about 532,400 tons, a slight increase. In September, the steel - mill production plan increased, and the de - stocking trend might continue [9]. - **Nickel - sulfate market**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,150 yuan/ton to 28,200 yuan/ton, and that of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate was stable at 29,750 yuan/ton. In August, the nickel - sulfate metal output was about 30,480 tons. The output of ternary materials increased. As of September 26, the downstream and upstream inventory days were 9 days and 5 days respectively. The price of nickel sulfate was stable, and the actual trading volume was limited [10]. - **New - energy vehicle market**: From September 1 - 21, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 697,000, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 58.5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.267 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. Overseas, the US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars. In China, the high - frequency sales growth rate continued to pick up, but there were still concerns in the later stage [10]. - **Inventory situation**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel was 40,828 tons, a decrease of 656 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory was 25,153 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 690 tons, and the LME inventory was 230,123 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1680 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges increased by 990 tons [11]. 3.3 Industry News - On September 20, 2025, Qingmeibang's 30,000 - ton electrowinning nickel production line was officially opened, becoming the first full - industrial - chain base for nickel resources and downstream products in Indonesia [13]. - The ESDM department suspended 190 mining companies in Indonesia, with a maximum suspension period of 60 days. The suspension could be lifted if the companies submitted reclamation plans and provided reclamation deposits. Otherwise, their mining licenses might be permanently revoked [13]. - Starting from October 1, 2025, the Indonesian ESDM will require the submission of the RKAB through the MinerbaOne application. The government is communicating with IUP holders [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - foreign ratios, nickel - futures inventory, nickel - ore port inventory, high - nickel - iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [15][17][19][22].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic nickel futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract showing weak performance and a decline of 0.86% as of the latest trading session [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 26, the main contract for nickel opened at 121,560.00 CNY/ton and fluctuated between a high of 121,580.00 CNY and a low of 120,730.00 CNY, closing with a decline of 0.86% [1]. - The overall performance of the nickel market is characterized by a weak and fluctuating trend, indicating ongoing pressure from both supply and demand factors [1]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Xinyi Futures suggests that macroeconomic factors, such as better-than-expected U.S. GDP and employment data, have cooled interest rate cut expectations, while the nickel market continues to face a balance of excess supply and support from mining [1]. - According to Fuzheng Zhongqi Futures, the rebound of the U.S. dollar and the consolidation of copper prices, along with limited actual impact from Indonesian mining disturbances, suggest a continuation of a cautious trading strategy ahead of the holiday [1]. - Zhonghui Futures notes that while there are disturbances in overseas Indonesian nickel mining, domestic refined nickel supply remains high, and there is some seasonal demand expectation in the stainless steel sector, indicating potential for short-term price rebounds [1].

Group 1 - Domestic nickel prices opened significantly lower on April 7, reaching a new low since April 2021, with prices nearing 115,000 yuan/ton [1] - As market pessimism gradually dissipates, domestic nickel prices have undergone a phase of valuation recovery, stabilizing around 120,000 yuan/ton [1] - Despite a general increase in industrial product prices due to "anti-involution" policies, nickel and downstream stainless steel prices remain in a weak and fluctuating state compared to other industrial products [1] Group 2 - Indonesia's nickel ore supply is becoming more relaxed, with approved mining quotas for 2025 increasing by over 22% to 36.4 million wet tons [2] - The actual nickel ore supply in Indonesia is expected to reach approximately 30 million wet tons in 2025, while total annual demand is around 26 million wet tons, indicating a shift from tight to relaxed supply conditions [2] - Domestic pure nickel production remains high, with August output at 35,200 tons and a cumulative total of 264,000 tons from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.84% [2] Group 3 - Global nickel inventories continue to rise, reaching 259,600 tons as of September 5, an increase of over 50,000 tons since the beginning of the year, marking a five-year high for this period [3] - Domestic nickel inventories, while down from their peak earlier in the year, remain elevated at 39,900 tons as of September 5, also at a historical high for this time [3] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has increased the number of deliverable pure nickel brands, significantly reducing the risk of insufficient delivery of nickel futures [3] Group 4 - Current spot prices for pure nickel have fallen below the cost line for external raw materials, including nickel sulfate and high-grade nickel [4] - The overall nickel price faces significant upward pressure due to the shift in Indonesian nickel ore supply and high global inventories, although there is some cost support at the lower end due to current pricing below production costs [4] - The main uncertainties lie in overseas nickel industry policy changes, particularly regarding the Philippines, which supplies over 90% of China's nickel ore imports, and Indonesia's high-grade nickel and intermediate products [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and it is necessary to be vigilant against multiple potential risks in the news. The stainless - steel price is in a low - level shock due to the weak supply and demand in reality [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: After the increase in Indonesian quotas is transmitted to the ore price, the overall decline of Indonesian nickel ore is relatively moderate, and the premium margin is temporarily stable. The cash cost of the pyrometallurgical process has decreased by about 2%. The nickel ore contradiction usually eases in the second half of the year, and the willingness of funds to speculate has decreased, which may limit the elasticity of the nickel price. The short - term inventory of the smelting end has not increased as expected, and the production schedule of ternary materials is considerable. The cost curve is still supported by the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical integration in the short term. The weak fundamentals of nickel iron have improved marginally, and the price has recovered due to the marginal decline in inventory. However, the expected production of refined nickel still exerts pressure, and the increase in low - cost integrated supply or equity resource processing supply drags down the upside of the nickel price [1]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,371 tons to 38,566 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 204 tons to 209,544 tons [3]. - **Market News**: There are multiple events affecting the nickel market, such as Canada's potential halt of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, Indonesia's plan to shorten the mining quota period, changes in the RKAB plan, production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and Indonesia's plan to crack down on illegal mining [6][7][9]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of stainless - steel supply and demand have significantly converged compared with previous years. The tariff contradiction on the demand side and the weak consumption in the post - real - estate cycle have resonated, and the apparent demand growth rate in July decreased to 2%. After the "de - valuation - de - production" stage from June to July, the supply - demand mismatch has slightly eased. The supply in August increased month - on - month by 4%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. The production schedule in Indonesia in August was 420,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The expected production in September has rebounded. Due to the high inventory in the upstream and mid - stream and the cautious procurement of the downstream, there is a lack of short - term upward drivers, and the long - term recovery still depends on the start of the overall macro - inventory replenishment cycle. The short - term profit margin has been compressed, and the cost logic limits the downward space [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 31, the SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,267 tons, with a half - month - on - month decrease of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. On August 28, 2025, the stainless - steel social inventory was 1,082,956 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.81%. China's 14 - port nickel ore inventory increased by 539,700 wet tons to 12.5982 million wet tons [5]. - **Market News**: A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance due to capacity limitations and production reduction targets, which will reduce the supply of hot - rolled coil [8]. Futures Data The report provides weekly key data tracking for nickel and stainless - steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price spreads and premiums [11]. Charts There are a series of charts showing the price trends, trading volumes, inventory changes, and cost - profit situations of nickel, stainless - steel, and related products [12 - 24].

Group 1: Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices have shown a fluctuating pattern since July, reaching a peak of 125,370 CNY/ton in late July due to new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries [1] - As positive market sentiments are digested, nickel prices are expected to continue in a range-bound trend in August, influenced by both supportive and adverse factors [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Global nickel ore production reached 1.6463 million tons from January to May 2025, with May's production at 346,200 tons, indicating a generally loose supply [1] - Indonesia's nickel ore production quota has been raised, but operational challenges have led to the shutdown of approximately 28 RKEF production lines, resulting in lower actual production [1] - China's nickel ore imports in July were at a five-year high, contributing to a continuous accumulation of nickel ore inventory at ports [1] Group 3: Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless steel industry in both Indonesia and China is currently in a traditional off-season, leading to reduced demand and production [2] - Domestic stainless steel crude steel production has declined for four consecutive months, with July's output down by 300,000 tons from February's peak [2] - Despite the challenges, there are expectations for a rebound in production as the off-season ends, which may support nickel prices [2] Group 4: Battery and Plating Sectors - From January to July, domestic sales of new energy vehicles increased by 35%, driving demand for nickel sulfate [3] - However, external risks such as U.S. tariffs on imported cars may slow down growth in nickel consumption in the battery and plating sectors [3] Group 5: Alloy Demand - China's automobile production rose by 12.6% from January to July, bolstering alloy nickel consumption [4] - Domestic refined nickel production saw a significant increase of 41% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching a four-year high [4] - Nonetheless, rising external uncertainties, including U.S. tariffs, could negatively impact future nickel consumption in the alloy sector [4] Group 6: Inventory Levels - As of August 19, 2025, LME nickel inventory reached 209,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 84%, indicating a loose supply environment [6] - High inventory levels are expected to suppress the potential for price rebounds and affect market sentiment [6] Group 7: Market Outlook - The short-term outlook suggests continued range-bound trading for nickel prices, with a focus on macro policy changes and demand recovery signals [6] - The strategy recommendation includes holding a sell position on nickel options, anticipating price fluctuations within a specified range [6]