Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel variety, the rebound of Shanghai nickel is restricted by the fundamentals, and it will likely enter a range - bound pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesian policies, inventory changes, and the recovery of downstream demand [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, due to low demand and high inventory, stainless steel is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern in the game between policy support and weak fundamentals [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 127,500 yuan/ton and closed at 125,410 yuan/ton, a - 1.22% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 650,804 (- 444,527) lots, and the open interest was 144,402 (- 7,820) lots. The price movement was the result of the game between policy expectations and fundamental realities. In the short term, the nickel price will be driven by market sentiment to maintain a slightly stronger oscillation pattern but is still suppressed by high inventory and weak demand [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market trading has become sluggish, and prices are mainly stable. In the Philippines, northern mines have limited shipments, and mines have a price - holding attitude. In Indonesia, the December (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price has dropped by 0.11 - 0.18 dollars/ton, and the current mainstream premium remains at +25 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 130,800 yuan/ton, a 3,000 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the transaction center has shifted significantly upwards. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands have mostly been adjusted upwards [2]. Strategy - The short - term strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operations, with no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [3][4]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 12,990 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 163,852 (- 81,031) lots, and the open interest was 101,925 (- 4,171) lots. Affected by the回调 of Shanghai nickel, the rebound of the stainless - steel main contract paused. If policy support is insufficient, the future rebound strength is expected to be limited [4]. - **Spot**: The futures market has weakened, and downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, with low purchasing enthusiasm. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market is 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is 13,025 (+0) yuan/ton [4]. Strategy - The short - term strategy for stainless steel is neutral, with no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [5].

➢ 请务必阅读最后重要事项 | 1 | | --- | | 1 | | 2025 2 | | 4 | | 5 | | 5 | | 6 | | 7 | | 8 | | 8 | | 8 | | 9 | | 10 | | MHP 11 | | 13 | | 14 | | MHP 16 | | 17 | | 18 | | --- | | 20 | | 20 | | 20 | | 21 | | 22 | | 23 | | 23 | | 24 | | 24 | | 25 | | 26 | | 27 | | LME 27 | | 28 | | 30 | | 32 | | 32 | | 图 1:沪绿长期走势回顾 | | --- | | 图 2．镍期货走势 | | 图 3: 期货收盘价(活跃):不锈钢 . | | 图 4: 精炼银升贴水 | | 图 5: 上海期货交易所:镍:成交量 . | | 图 6: 上海期货交易所:镍,持仓量:期末值 . | | 图 7: 上海期货交易所:不锈钢:成交量及当月同比. | | 图 8: 上海期货交易所:不锈钢:持仓量,期末值 | | 图 9: 美元与有色金属 … | | 图 10: 美国:供 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view on nickel is that it will experience a sideways trend. The stable price of nickel ore at the raw material end provides cost support for the industrial chain. Recently, the continuous increase in nickel inventories at home and abroad has gradually shown an oversupply pressure, limiting the upside space for nickel prices. In the medium to long term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle, combined with the start of the new annual RKAB approval in Indonesia, will inject potential upward momentum into nickel prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Overview - **Price and Inventory**: Last week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel (2511) opened at 122,190 yuan/ton and closed at 121,160 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.83%. As of October 20, the spot price of electrolytic nickel decreased by 350 yuan/ton week-on-week to 122,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%. As of October 17, the social inventory of refined nickel (including the SHFE) increased by 4,014 tons week-on-week to 47,700 tons, a rise of 9.19% [7][13][45]. - **Export and Import Profits**: As of October 17, the LME nickel price decreased by 105 dollars/ton week-on-week to 15,110 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.69%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic nickel increased by 805.27 yuan/ton week-on-week to -677.13 yuan/ton, a rise of 54.32%, while the export profit and loss decreased by 52.13 dollars/ton to -66.76 dollars/ton [18]. - **NPI and Sulfuric Acid Nickel Prices**: As of October 21, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 11 yuan/nickel point week-on-week to 936 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 1.16%. As of October 20, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 150 yuan/ton week-on-week to 28,550 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.53% [24]. Nickel Ore - **Price and Supply**: As of October 20, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore remained flat week-on-week at 29, 57, and 78.5 dollars/wet ton respectively. As of October 17, the ex - factory prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia increased by 0 and 0.1 dollars/wet ton week-on-week to 23 and 52.8 dollars/wet ton respectively. The freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang remained flat week-on-week at 12.5 and 11.5 dollars/wet ton respectively [29]. - **Inventory and Import**: As of October 17, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 30,000 tons week-on-week to 10.53 million wet tons, a rise of 0.29%, equivalent to about 87,200 nickel tons in metal content. In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a decrease of 3.51% month-on-month and an increase of 34.43% year-on-year [31]. Refined Nickel - **Production and Trade**: As of September 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 400 tons month-on-month to 35,600 tons, a rise of 1.14% month-on-month and 13.07% year-on-year. The monthly export volume of refined nickel was 14,100 tons, a decrease of 6.22% month-on-month and an increase of 33.21% year-on-year, while the monthly import volume was 28,400 tons, an increase of 17.29% month-on-month and 378.85% year-on-year [44]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel increased by 82 dollars/ton month-on-month to 13,136 dollars/ton, a rise of 0.63%. The production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel decreased by 723 and 1,168 yuan/ton respectively to 116,448 yuan/ton and 124,802 yuan/ton, and the profit margins increased by 1.2 and 1.4 percentage points respectively to 4.4% and -2.6% [51]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Production and Trade**: As of September 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 3,500 tons month-on-month to 34,000 nickel tons, a rise of 11.45%. The monthly import volume was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 2.51% month-on-month and an increase of 36.24% year-on-year, while the monthly export volume was 806.42 tons, an increase of 58.96% month-on-month and a decrease of 75.81% year-on-year [58]. - **Cost and Profit**: Recently, the coefficients of major primary raw materials such as MHP and high - grade nickel matte have remained basically stable. As of October 20, the profit margins of MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag for producing sulfuric acid nickel increased by 1.3, 0.1, 1.4, and 0.1 percentage points respectively week-on-week to 0.5%, -0.5%, 7%, and 0% [62]. Ferronickel - **Production and Price**: As of September 2025, the national ferronickel production (in metal content) decreased by 2,300 tons month-on-month to 22,900 tons, a decrease of 9.30%. The production in Indonesia increased by 2,000 tons month-on-month to 139,900 nickel tons, a rise of 1.45%. As of October 21, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 11 yuan/nickel point week-on-week to 936 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 1.16% [24][73]. - **Inventory and Profit**: As of October 15, the ferronickel inventory in major domestic regions decreased by 174 tons compared to September 30 to 29,100 nickel tons (average grade of 11.48%), a decrease of 0.60%. As of October 20, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian increased by 0.97 yuan/nickel point week-on-week to 1,000.02 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin decreased by 1.49 percentage points to -6.25% [78]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: Last week, the main contract of stainless steel (ss2512) opened at 12,800 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. As of October 20, the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge in Wuxi remained flat week-on-week at 13,000 yuan/ton [83]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of October 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production plan was 3.4472 million tons, an increase of 0.60% month-on-month and 4.75% year-on-year. As of October 17, the social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 12,400 tons week-on-week to 1.0412 million tons, a decrease of 1.18%. As of October 21, the number of stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 1.0 ton week-on-week to 74,500 tons, a decrease of 11.83% [86][89]. - **Cost and Profit**: After the holiday, the cost of stainless steel decreased. The price of high - nickel iron dropped to 940 yuan/nickel point, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome dropped to 8,400 yuan/50 - base ton. The price of 304 scrap stainless steel was 9,400 yuan/ton (ex - tax), a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The production cost of stainless steel is in an inverted state [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and silver, providing insights on their supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies [1]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Emotions**: The market has digested the supply loss of Grasberg copper mine, with overseas banks raising long - term copper price expectations. The US government shutdown and Sino - US trade issues add to market uncertainty [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Imported copper concentrate TC is at $80. September domestic copper output decreased by 50,600 tons month - on - month, and is expected to drop by 38,500 tons in October. September copper imports reached 485,000 tons, and consumption is under pressure from high prices [1]. - **Overseas**: ICSC lowered the 2025 copper concentrate supply growth from 2.86% to 1.4% (supply increment from nearly 500,000 tons to 300,000 tons) and next year's growth from 2.55% to 2.3% (supply increment from 800,000 - ton level to 500,000 - ton level). 2025 demand growth is expected at 3.3%, and 2026 at 2.1% [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price is likely to enter a high - level oscillation state after reaching near - record positions last week [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: Domestic alumina operating capacity is at a historical high of 80 million tons, with a significant surplus. Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at around 44 million tons [1]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 6.5% to 62.5%. September aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 57,000 tons to 649,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 139,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The aluminum market is oscillating to test previous highs, and the upside space is cautiously viewed [1]. Zinc - **Spot and Futures**: LME inventory is less than 38,000 tons, with a high 0 - 3 months premium. Domestic smelters prefer domestic ore procurement, and import ore TC has rebounded [1]. - **Demand**: Affected by multiple factors, domestic demand is not strong, and social inventory has reached a five - year high of 163,100 tons [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market**: The external market's rising lead price was reversed by policy changes and domestic factory resumptions. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 237,000 tons [1]. - **Supply**: Both primary and secondary lead production are expected to increase in October. The supply of lead concentrate is still tight [1]. - **Demand**: Battery consumption is good, but the sustainability of consumption is in doubt [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Spot and Supply**: There are premiums for different forms of nickel. Nickel and nickel - iron inventories have increased, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is weakly operating, with a downward - moving center of gravity [1]. Tin - **Supply**: There is no new news on tin ore resupply, and domestic production is expected to increase in October [1]. - **Demand**: High tin prices affect downstream purchases, and the export of related products has slowed [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai tin has significant two - way price movements. Short positions can be held near 290,000 yuan or sell put options with an execution price of 300,000 yuan for the 25LL contract [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating with light trading [1]. - **Spot**: The price is reported at 23,100 yuan, and the total output has growth potential [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials is good, with expected growth in October [1]. - **Inventory**: The total market inventory has decreased, and downstream inventory is at a relatively high level [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium price is supported at a low level, but there is downward pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Xinjiang enterprises plan to increase production in October, and southwest production areas may cut production in November [1]. - **Demand**: The production of polysilicon in October is less than expected, and the operating load of organic silicon enterprises remains stable [1]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory has increased by 200 tons to 545,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: There is a high risk of inventory accumulation in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price has recovered and stabilized between 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply contraction is limited in October, and silicon wafer production cuts are frequent in Q4. Demand has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has increased by 1.4 million tons to 24 million tons [1]. - **Trend**: The effectiveness of the 40,000 - yuan/ton support level is being tested, and industry meeting news should be followed [1]. Silver - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100 [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures markets showed a weak intraday oscillation. After the expected interest rate cut, the overall market was sluggish, and there were no significant changes in the fundamentals. There were concerns about the supply of nickel ore, while the new energy sector provided support. The stainless - steel market had limited actual transactions, and the overall market momentum was calm. The Fed's interest rate cut did not exceed expectations, leading to a weak overall market [4]. 3. Key Points by Category Price and Volatility Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.80% and a historical percentile of 1.7% [3]. Risk Management Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For future production procurement needs, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [3]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - **Procurement Management**: For future production procurement needs, buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [4]. Core Contradictions - **Market Trends**: Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures oscillated weakly intraday. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the overall market was weak, and the fundamentals remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply - side Factors**: Indonesia issued the second - phase benchmark price for nickel ore, and there were concerns about supply due to government interventions and upcoming quota approvals. The new energy sector provided support, and cobalt price increases drove up the prices of MHP and nickel salts [4]. - **Demand - side Factors**: Nickel - iron quotes were firm, but high - price transactions declined. Stainless - steel spot sales tried to stimulate transactions by reducing prices, but actual transactions were limited [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel - ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - mining areas by the Indonesian forestry working group [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High pure - nickel inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless - steel import tariffs, the implementation of anti - dumping duties on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea, and weak stainless - steel spot transactions [6]. Market Data - **Nickel Market** - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract was 120,940 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M was 15,335 US dollars/ton. Some contracts showed price declines [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social nickel inventory was 41,055 tons (up 1,125 tons), LME nickel inventory was 228,450 tons (down 18 tons), nickel - pig - iron inventory was 28,652 tons (down 614.5 tons) [7]. - **Stainless - Steel Market** - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract was 12,875 yuan/ton, and some contracts showed price declines [6]. - **Inventory**: Stainless - steel social inventory was 897.2 tons (down 5.4 tons), and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 5,119 tons (a 5.37% decline) [6][7]. Industry News - Ningde Times and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel - integrated smelter [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Likely Positive Factors**: Strong cost support at the mining end, with Indonesian nickel ore policies driving up costs and strengthening the bottom support; Intermediate product supply is temporarily tight, nickel sulfate prices are rising moderately, and the cost - pricing mechanism supports nickel prices [3] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, refined nickel production capacity is expected to increase, and new - energy consumption growth has slowed down; High social inventories of pure nickel continue to suppress price rebound [3] - **Trading Advice**: The fundamentals are mixed. In the short term, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to cost support at the mining end and marginal changes in inventories [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - **Nickel Futures**: The latest value of SHFE Nickel Main Contract is 123,450 yuan/ton, down 1,180 yuan (-0.95%) week - on - week; LME Nickel 3M is 15,575 dollars/ton, up 345 dollars week - on - week, but the week - on - week change is - 0.27%. The trading volume is 111,203 lots, up 9,286 lots (9.11%) week - on - week, and the open interest is 70,991 lots, up 3,051 lots (4.5%) week - on - week [4] - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The latest value of Stainless Steel Main Contract is 12,720 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (0%) week - on - week. The trading volume is 64,097 lots, down 86,016 lots (-57.30%) week - on - week, and the open interest is 67,770 lots, down 21,583 lots (-24.15%) week - on - week [4] - **Spot Prices**: The latest price of Jinchuan Nickel is 125,925 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-0.02%); Imported nickel is 123,775 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan (-0.06%); 1 Electrolytic Nickel is 124,825 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan (-0.06%); Nickel beans are 123,175 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan (-0.06%); Electrowon nickel is 123,775 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan (0.06%) [4] - **Inventories**: Domestic social inventory of nickel is 44,088 tons, down 13 tons; LME nickel inventory is 197,670 tons, down 642 tons; Stainless steel social inventory is 989.1 thousand tons, up 13.7 thousand tons; Nickel pig iron inventory is 28,396.5 thousand tons, up 4,223 thousand tons [4][6] Charts - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Prices**: Present the historical closing prices of SHFE Nickel Futures Main Contract, LME Nickel (3 - month) electronic - trading prices, and Stainless Steel Futures Main Contract [8][9] - **Nickel Spot Average Price**: Shows the average prices of nickel beans, 1 imported nickel, and SMM 1 electrolytic nickel [11] - **Primary Nickel Supply and Inventory**: Includes China's monthly refined nickel production, total monthly primary nickel supply (including imports), domestic social inventories of nickel plates and nickel beans, LME nickel inventory, Philippine laterite nickel ore prices, and China's port nickel ore inventories [13][14][15] - **Ferronickel**: Covers the average price of Indonesian high - grade ferronickel (Ni≥14%, duty - paid at port), China's monthly ferronickel production, the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% ferronickel in China, and Indonesia's monthly ferronickel production [17][18][19][20] - **Downstream Nickel Sulfate**: Involves the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel (plates), the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally - purchased nickel sulfate in China, China's monthly nickel sulfate production, and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors [22][23][24][25][26] - **Stainless Steel**: Includes the profit margin of China's 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coils, monthly stainless - steel production, and stainless - steel inventories [27][28][29][30]