【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属上涨。随着多位美联储官员表态主张12月降息，利率市场隐含降息概率升至80%。 俄乌 相关方围绕美方提出的和平计划展开讨论和博弈。市场不确定性依然较强,贵金属高位震荡等待方 向性突破。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【铜】 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 隔夜铜价震荡，伦铜尾盘随贵金属走高，另一联储官员表达侧重就业的降息态度，两市铜价暂时在 MA40日均线存在韧性支撑。国内铜精矿加工费长单谈判备受关注。交割换月后,沪粤延续升水,分 别在85、125元，倾向国内现货端有一定看涨情绪，货源较集中。SMM社库减少1.39万吨在18.06万 吨。前期少量高位空单被动止盈位置从8.7万下调到8.65万。 【铝】 (原油) 隔夜国际油价反弹,布伦特01合约涨1.41%。俄乌地缘风险再次陷入制裁现实与和谈预期的纠葛, 一方面上周五美国对俄两油制裁正式生效,印度炼厂进一步规避俄油采购的行为已经发生,另一方 面本周四最后期限前美鸟就和平计划的谈判仍有不确定性。供需方面四季度、明年一季度市场仍面 临更大的累库预期,油价下行驱动仍在,本周重点关注俄乌和平方案谈判进展及委内地缘风险的犹 动。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view on nickel is that it will experience a sideways trend. The stable price of nickel ore at the raw material end provides cost support for the industrial chain. Recently, the continuous increase in nickel inventories at home and abroad has gradually shown an oversupply pressure, limiting the upside space for nickel prices. In the medium to long term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle, combined with the start of the new annual RKAB approval in Indonesia, will inject potential upward momentum into nickel prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Overview - **Price and Inventory**: Last week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel (2511) opened at 122,190 yuan/ton and closed at 121,160 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.83%. As of October 20, the spot price of electrolytic nickel decreased by 350 yuan/ton week-on-week to 122,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%. As of October 17, the social inventory of refined nickel (including the SHFE) increased by 4,014 tons week-on-week to 47,700 tons, a rise of 9.19% [7][13][45]. - **Export and Import Profits**: As of October 17, the LME nickel price decreased by 105 dollars/ton week-on-week to 15,110 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.69%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic nickel increased by 805.27 yuan/ton week-on-week to -677.13 yuan/ton, a rise of 54.32%, while the export profit and loss decreased by 52.13 dollars/ton to -66.76 dollars/ton [18]. - **NPI and Sulfuric Acid Nickel Prices**: As of October 21, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 11 yuan/nickel point week-on-week to 936 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 1.16%. As of October 20, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 150 yuan/ton week-on-week to 28,550 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.53% [24]. Nickel Ore - **Price and Supply**: As of October 20, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore remained flat week-on-week at 29, 57, and 78.5 dollars/wet ton respectively. As of October 17, the ex - factory prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia increased by 0 and 0.1 dollars/wet ton week-on-week to 23 and 52.8 dollars/wet ton respectively. The freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang remained flat week-on-week at 12.5 and 11.5 dollars/wet ton respectively [29]. - **Inventory and Import**: As of October 17, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 30,000 tons week-on-week to 10.53 million wet tons, a rise of 0.29%, equivalent to about 87,200 nickel tons in metal content. In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a decrease of 3.51% month-on-month and an increase of 34.43% year-on-year [31]. Refined Nickel - **Production and Trade**: As of September 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 400 tons month-on-month to 35,600 tons, a rise of 1.14% month-on-month and 13.07% year-on-year. The monthly export volume of refined nickel was 14,100 tons, a decrease of 6.22% month-on-month and an increase of 33.21% year-on-year, while the monthly import volume was 28,400 tons, an increase of 17.29% month-on-month and 378.85% year-on-year [44]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of September 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel increased by 82 dollars/ton month-on-month to 13,136 dollars/ton, a rise of 0.63%. The production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel decreased by 723 and 1,168 yuan/ton respectively to 116,448 yuan/ton and 124,802 yuan/ton, and the profit margins increased by 1.2 and 1.4 percentage points respectively to 4.4% and -2.6% [51]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Production and Trade**: As of September 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 3,500 tons month-on-month to 34,000 nickel tons, a rise of 11.45%. The monthly import volume was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 2.51% month-on-month and an increase of 36.24% year-on-year, while the monthly export volume was 806.42 tons, an increase of 58.96% month-on-month and a decrease of 75.81% year-on-year [58]. - **Cost and Profit**: Recently, the coefficients of major primary raw materials such as MHP and high - grade nickel matte have remained basically stable. As of October 20, the profit margins of MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag for producing sulfuric acid nickel increased by 1.3, 0.1, 1.4, and 0.1 percentage points respectively week-on-week to 0.5%, -0.5%, 7%, and 0% [62]. Ferronickel - **Production and Price**: As of September 2025, the national ferronickel production (in metal content) decreased by 2,300 tons month-on-month to 22,900 tons, a decrease of 9.30%. The production in Indonesia increased by 2,000 tons month-on-month to 139,900 nickel tons, a rise of 1.45%. As of October 21, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 11 yuan/nickel point week-on-week to 936 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 1.16% [24][73]. - **Inventory and Profit**: As of October 15, the ferronickel inventory in major domestic regions decreased by 174 tons compared to September 30 to 29,100 nickel tons (average grade of 11.48%), a decrease of 0.60%. As of October 20, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian increased by 0.97 yuan/nickel point week-on-week to 1,000.02 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin decreased by 1.49 percentage points to -6.25% [78]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: Last week, the main contract of stainless steel (ss2512) opened at 12,800 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. As of October 20, the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge in Wuxi remained flat week-on-week at 13,000 yuan/ton [83]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of October 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production plan was 3.4472 million tons, an increase of 0.60% month-on-month and 4.75% year-on-year. As of October 17, the social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 12,400 tons week-on-week to 1.0412 million tons, a decrease of 1.18%. As of October 21, the number of stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 1.0 ton week-on-week to 74,500 tons, a decrease of 11.83% [86][89]. - **Cost and Profit**: After the holiday, the cost of stainless steel decreased. The price of high - nickel iron dropped to 940 yuan/nickel point, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome dropped to 8,400 yuan/50 - base ton. The price of 304 scrap stainless steel was 9,400 yuan/ton (ex - tax), a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The production cost of stainless steel is in an inverted state [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and silver, providing insights on their supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies [1]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Emotions**: The market has digested the supply loss of Grasberg copper mine, with overseas banks raising long - term copper price expectations. The US government shutdown and Sino - US trade issues add to market uncertainty [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Imported copper concentrate TC is at $80. September domestic copper output decreased by 50,600 tons month - on - month, and is expected to drop by 38,500 tons in October. September copper imports reached 485,000 tons, and consumption is under pressure from high prices [1]. - **Overseas**: ICSC lowered the 2025 copper concentrate supply growth from 2.86% to 1.4% (supply increment from nearly 500,000 tons to 300,000 tons) and next year's growth from 2.55% to 2.3% (supply increment from 800,000 - ton level to 500,000 - ton level). 2025 demand growth is expected at 3.3%, and 2026 at 2.1% [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price is likely to enter a high - level oscillation state after reaching near - record positions last week [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: Domestic alumina operating capacity is at a historical high of 80 million tons, with a significant surplus. Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at around 44 million tons [1]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 6.5% to 62.5%. September aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 57,000 tons to 649,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 139,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The aluminum market is oscillating to test previous highs, and the upside space is cautiously viewed [1]. Zinc - **Spot and Futures**: LME inventory is less than 38,000 tons, with a high 0 - 3 months premium. Domestic smelters prefer domestic ore procurement, and import ore TC has rebounded [1]. - **Demand**: Affected by multiple factors, domestic demand is not strong, and social inventory has reached a five - year high of 163,100 tons [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market**: The external market's rising lead price was reversed by policy changes and domestic factory resumptions. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 237,000 tons [1]. - **Supply**: Both primary and secondary lead production are expected to increase in October. The supply of lead concentrate is still tight [1]. - **Demand**: Battery consumption is good, but the sustainability of consumption is in doubt [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Spot and Supply**: There are premiums for different forms of nickel. Nickel and nickel - iron inventories have increased, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is weakly operating, with a downward - moving center of gravity [1]. Tin - **Supply**: There is no new news on tin ore resupply, and domestic production is expected to increase in October [1]. - **Demand**: High tin prices affect downstream purchases, and the export of related products has slowed [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai tin has significant two - way price movements. Short positions can be held near 290,000 yuan or sell put options with an execution price of 300,000 yuan for the 25LL contract [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating with light trading [1]. - **Spot**: The price is reported at 23,100 yuan, and the total output has growth potential [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials is good, with expected growth in October [1]. - **Inventory**: The total market inventory has decreased, and downstream inventory is at a relatively high level [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium price is supported at a low level, but there is downward pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Xinjiang enterprises plan to increase production in October, and southwest production areas may cut production in November [1]. - **Demand**: The production of polysilicon in October is less than expected, and the operating load of organic silicon enterprises remains stable [1]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory has increased by 200 tons to 545,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: There is a high risk of inventory accumulation in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price has recovered and stabilized between 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply contraction is limited in October, and silicon wafer production cuts are frequent in Q4. Demand has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has increased by 1.4 million tons to 24 million tons [1]. - **Trend**: The effectiveness of the 40,000 - yuan/ton support level is being tested, and industry meeting news should be followed [1]. Silver - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100 [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures markets showed a weak intraday oscillation. After the expected interest rate cut, the overall market was sluggish, and there were no significant changes in the fundamentals. There were concerns about the supply of nickel ore, while the new energy sector provided support. The stainless - steel market had limited actual transactions, and the overall market momentum was calm. The Fed's interest rate cut did not exceed expectations, leading to a weak overall market [4]. 3. Key Points by Category Price and Volatility Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.80% and a historical percentile of 1.7% [3]. Risk Management Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For future production procurement needs, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [3]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - **Procurement Management**: For future production procurement needs, buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [4]. Core Contradictions - **Market Trends**: Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures oscillated weakly intraday. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the overall market was weak, and the fundamentals remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply - side Factors**: Indonesia issued the second - phase benchmark price for nickel ore, and there were concerns about supply due to government interventions and upcoming quota approvals. The new energy sector provided support, and cobalt price increases drove up the prices of MHP and nickel salts [4]. - **Demand - side Factors**: Nickel - iron quotes were firm, but high - price transactions declined. Stainless - steel spot sales tried to stimulate transactions by reducing prices, but actual transactions were limited [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel - ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - mining areas by the Indonesian forestry working group [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High pure - nickel inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless - steel import tariffs, the implementation of anti - dumping duties on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea, and weak stainless - steel spot transactions [6]. Market Data - **Nickel Market** - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract was 120,940 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M was 15,335 US dollars/ton. Some contracts showed price declines [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social nickel inventory was 41,055 tons (up 1,125 tons), LME nickel inventory was 228,450 tons (down 18 tons), nickel - pig - iron inventory was 28,652 tons (down 614.5 tons) [7]. - **Stainless - Steel Market** - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract was 12,875 yuan/ton, and some contracts showed price declines [6]. - **Inventory**: Stainless - steel social inventory was 897.2 tons (down 5.4 tons), and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 5,119 tons (a 5.37% decline) [6][7]. Industry News - Ningde Times and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel - integrated smelter [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Likely Positive Factors**: Strong cost support at the mining end, with Indonesian nickel ore policies driving up costs and strengthening the bottom support; Intermediate product supply is temporarily tight, nickel sulfate prices are rising moderately, and the cost - pricing mechanism supports nickel prices [3] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, refined nickel production capacity is expected to increase, and new - energy consumption growth has slowed down; High social inventories of pure nickel continue to suppress price rebound [3] - **Trading Advice**: The fundamentals are mixed. In the short term, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to cost support at the mining end and marginal changes in inventories [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - **Nickel Futures**: The latest value of SHFE Nickel Main Contract is 123,450 yuan/ton, down 1,180 yuan (-0.95%) week - on - week; LME Nickel 3M is 15,575 dollars/ton, up 345 dollars week - on - week, but the week - on - week change is - 0.27%. The trading volume is 111,203 lots, up 9,286 lots (9.11%) week - on - week, and the open interest is 70,991 lots, up 3,051 lots (4.5%) week - on - week [4] - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The latest value of Stainless Steel Main Contract is 12,720 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (0%) week - on - week. The trading volume is 64,097 lots, down 86,016 lots (-57.30%) week - on - week, and the open interest is 67,770 lots, down 21,583 lots (-24.15%) week - on - week [4] - **Spot Prices**: The latest price of Jinchuan Nickel is 125,925 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-0.02%); Imported nickel is 123,775 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan (-0.06%); 1 Electrolytic Nickel is 124,825 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan (-0.06%); Nickel beans are 123,175 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan (-0.06%); Electrowon nickel is 123,775 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan (0.06%) [4] - **Inventories**: Domestic social inventory of nickel is 44,088 tons, down 13 tons; LME nickel inventory is 197,670 tons, down 642 tons; Stainless steel social inventory is 989.1 thousand tons, up 13.7 thousand tons; Nickel pig iron inventory is 28,396.5 thousand tons, up 4,223 thousand tons [4][6] Charts - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Prices**: Present the historical closing prices of SHFE Nickel Futures Main Contract, LME Nickel (3 - month) electronic - trading prices, and Stainless Steel Futures Main Contract [8][9] - **Nickel Spot Average Price**: Shows the average prices of nickel beans, 1 imported nickel, and SMM 1 electrolytic nickel [11] - **Primary Nickel Supply and Inventory**: Includes China's monthly refined nickel production, total monthly primary nickel supply (including imports), domestic social inventories of nickel plates and nickel beans, LME nickel inventory, Philippine laterite nickel ore prices, and China's port nickel ore inventories [13][14][15] - **Ferronickel**: Covers the average price of Indonesian high - grade ferronickel (Ni≥14%, duty - paid at port), China's monthly ferronickel production, the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% ferronickel in China, and Indonesia's monthly ferronickel production [17][18][19][20] - **Downstream Nickel Sulfate**: Involves the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel (plates), the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally - purchased nickel sulfate in China, China's monthly nickel sulfate production, and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors [22][23][24][25][26] - **Stainless Steel**: Includes the profit margin of China's 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coils, monthly stainless - steel production, and stainless - steel inventories [27][28][29][30]