智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，活牛价格仍有提升空间、奶价仍处于历史较低水平，上游奶 牛存栏去化持续推进，肉牛能繁母牛去化影响有望逐步显现，出海、乳制品深加工或带来原奶消耗提 升，看好未来原奶、肉牛周期共振上行，推动上游养殖公司业绩改善。 该行表示，双节后供需平稳，奶价进入磨底阶段，合同内外价格环比平稳，乳制品需求持续承压，其中 常温表现弱于低温，深加工及出海低基数下快速成长，未来前景广阔。Q3肉牛价格整体高位波动， 2024年以来存栏累计去化或超过10%，预计2026年肉牛供给端存在下降压力，参考上轮肉牛周期去化及 价格回升节奏，该行判断本轮周期活牛价格仍有上行空间。继续看好肉牛原奶周期共振。 未来展望：国内液奶需求承压，关注深加工及出海弹性，继续看好肉奶共振下的利润改善。 1)原奶：国内液奶需求端疲软仍是压制此轮周期反转的重要因素，B端、出海需求高增但基数较低，头 部乳企入场有望推动行业国产替代加速，预计当前乳制品深加工产能全部投产将日消耗超过5000吨原 奶。该行认为供给端存栏去化放缓在预期之内，后续仍可期待青贮收购、淡季背景下的小幅加速去化。 2)肉牛：2024年以来能繁母牛或去化超10%，国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the dairy industry in China is currently experiencing a downturn in milk prices, leading to a reduction in upstream breeding capacity and a wait-and-see approach from downstream dairy companies for demand recovery [1][2] - Huatai Securities predicts that the dairy industry is expected to return to supply-demand balance by 2026, driven by a decline in raw milk production and a moderate improvement in terminal demand for dairy products [1] - Data from the China Dairy Association indicates a year-on-year decrease in livestock numbers by 1.0/1.5 million heads in May-June 2025, confirming the trend of capacity reduction [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities highlights that Youran Dairy, controlled by Yili Group, covers the entire supply chain from breeding, feed, to dairy cow farming [2] - The beef market is entering an upward cycle due to reduced production in major overseas beef-producing regions, with expectations of decreased import volumes and increased prices in the domestic market [2] - The domestic raw milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to pressure for capacity reduction, while the meat-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, which may accelerate the elimination of dairy cows [2]