Core Insights - Ningxia has made significant progress in agricultural foreign exchange cooperation through various initiatives, including agricultural exchange platforms, upgrading agricultural product export trade, and modernizing agricultural industries [1][2] Group 1: Agricultural Exchange and Cooperation - Ningxia has successfully hosted six agricultural activities at the China-Arab Expo and established two national-level platforms to support agricultural foreign cooperation [1] - The total import and export value of Ningxia's agricultural products reached 2.39 billion yuan in 2024, nearly quadrupling since 2012, with exports amounting to 1.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.3% [1] Group 2: Industry Development and Branding - Ningxia focuses on six national-level advantageous specialty industry clusters, including wine, goji berries, milk, beef, and cool-season vegetables, achieving a processing conversion rate of 73% for agricultural products [1] - Three brands, including Helan Mountain wine, Zhongning goji berries, and Yanchi sheep, rank among the top 25 in China's regional brand value [1] Group 3: Technology Transfer and International Cooperation - Ningxia has introduced over 20 foreign high-quality varieties of melons, vegetables, and forage, and established 12 Sino-foreign cooperative smart agriculture demonstration zones [2] - The region has promoted over 50 applicable agricultural technologies to developing countries, enhancing local agricultural development in regions such as Africa, West Asia, and Central Asia [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][5][4] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, the growth of pet consumption, and the undervaluation of leading companies in the breeding chain [3][4] - It highlights a new round of beef price increases and expects strong support for pork prices due to low production capacity [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Livestock - Pork prices are expected to maintain low volatility, with a price of 13.70 CNY/kg as of August 15, 2025, up 0.37% week-on-week [1][13] - The beef market is seeing a new price increase, with an average price of 60.58 CNY/kg, up 0.41% week-on-week and 24.91% year-on-year [1][15] - The report anticipates a sustained improvement in the beef and raw milk markets due to domestic and international demand [3] Poultry - White chicken supply has slightly increased, with a price of 7.06 CNY/kg, down 1.67% week-on-week [1][14] - Yellow chicken supply remains at a low level, with prices for various types showing increases of 13% to 5% week-on-week [1][14] - The report expects long-term consumption levels for white chicken to rise, benefiting from domestic demand recovery [3] Feed and Other Agricultural Products - Soybean prices are at 3953 CNY/ton, up 0.67% week-on-week, while soybean meal prices are at 3092 CNY/ton, up 2.79% week-on-week [2][15] - Corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate increase, with a current price of 2376 CNY/ton, down 0.34% week-on-week but up 1.19% year-on-year [2][15] - The report notes that sugar prices have increased slightly, with a current price of 5960 CNY/ton, up 0.85% week-on-week [2][15] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Livestock: Youan Livestock, Modern Animal Husbandry, China Shengmu, Guangming Meat [3][4] - Pet Industry: Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., RuiPu Bio [3][4] - Feed: Haida Group [3][4] - Swine: Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others [3][4] - Poultry: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., Shengnong Development [3][4]

Core Insights - Ningxia Zhongwei's selenium sand melon has entered a harvest season, with production and sales activities enhancing the quality agricultural product sales system [1] - The average income of melon farmers has increased from over 10,000 yuan in 2014 to over 100,000 yuan in 2024, reflecting a tenfold growth over ten years [1] - Zhongwei has established the first national quality safety traceability system for selenium sand melon, with over 100 production and operation entities cultivated [1] Group 1 - In 2024, Zhongwei planted 427,000 acres of selenium sand melon, yielding a total output of 1.1 million tons and generating a total output value of 1.837 billion yuan [1] - The brand value of "Zhongwei Selenium Sand Melon" reached 3.598 billion yuan [1] - Other agricultural products, such as goji berries and beef cattle, are also thriving, contributing to the overall agricultural benefits [1] Group 2 - Zhongwei has leveraged its digital information industry advantages to build an industrial consortium of "research institutions + leading enterprises + cooperatives + farmers," significantly improving production and operational levels [2] - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Zhongwei increased by 5.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year [2] - The local government emphasizes industrial revitalization as a priority for rural revitalization, focusing on developing characteristic advantageous industries and enhancing market reach [2]

Core Insights - The agricultural sector in Zhongwei City, Ningxia, is experiencing significant growth, particularly in the production and sales of selenium sand melons, with average household income increasing from over 10,000 yuan in 2014 to over 100,000 yuan in 2024, marking a tenfold increase over ten years [1] - Zhongwei City has established the first national quality safety traceability system for selenium sand melons, with over 100 production and operation entities cultivated [1] - In 2024, the area planted with selenium sand melons reached 427,000 acres, with a total output of 1.1 million tons and a total output value of 1.837 billion yuan, while the brand value of "Zhongwei Selenium Sand Melon" reached 3.598 billion yuan [1] - The agricultural sector is diversifying, with other products like goji berries and beef cattle also seeing growth, driven by a strategic focus on large-scale planning and brand development [1] - Zhongwei City is enhancing its agricultural brand cultivation plan and establishing premium agricultural product exhibition stores to improve recognition and reputation [1] Industry Development - Zhongwei City is leveraging its digital information industry to create an industrial consortium involving research institutions, leading enterprises, cooperatives, and farmers, significantly improving the scale, intensification, and industrialization of production [2] - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Zhongwei City increased by 5.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year [2] - The local government emphasizes the importance of industrial revitalization as a key aspect of rural revitalization, focusing on developing characteristic advantageous industries and enhancing market reach [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **agriculture industry**, focusing on **animal protein sectors** such as **pig farming**, **dairy farming**, and **beef cattle farming** [1][2][34]. Core Insights and Arguments Pig Farming - The **pig farming cycle** is driven by production capacity, with the number of breeding sows being a critical leading indicator. This needs to be cross-verified with data on sow feed sales [1][2]. - The **African swine fever** has normalized, raising the industry's cost base, which affects the peak and elasticity of the cycle [1][4]. - **Scale farming** may extend the pig cycle and amplify price fluctuations. Secondary fattening increases price disturbances, influenced by short-term price expectations [1][5]. - The **反内卷 (anti-involution) policy** aims to reduce the number of breeding sows and lower slaughter weights to support pig prices [1][11]. - The average price of pigs is expected to rise to over **16 RMB per kilogram** by **2026**, with **牧原股份 (Muyuan Food)** potentially achieving a profit of nearly **500 RMB per head** [1][14]. Dairy Farming - The dairy industry faces challenges due to falling milk prices, currently around **3 RMB per kilogram**, down from **4.5 RMB**. However, there is potential for demand improvement due to increased willingness to have children and government subsidies for newborns [1][17]. - The beef cattle sector has a long growth cycle and is heavily reliant on imports, with significant industry clearing observed [1][18][20]. Market Dynamics - The **white chicken farming** sector is significantly impacted by overseas breeding policies, with potential for market share growth for **圣农 (Sannong)** during periods of import disruption [3][25]. - The **seafood feed** segment is expected to improve due to rising prices of common aquatic products, with **海大集团 (Haida Group)** showing strong performance in this area [3][27]. Other Important Insights - The **agricultural new consumption trends** include rapid growth in pet food and pet healthcare sectors, indicating new growth potential beyond traditional areas [6][34]. - The **agricultural input products** like feed and veterinary products serve as lagging indicators in the animal protein supply chain, aiding in capacity data assessment [7][34]. - The **grain security** theme is increasingly important, with policies and market dynamics needing close attention [8][30]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on core assets like **牧原 (Muyuan)** and **温氏 (Wens Food)**, which have strong cost control and are less affected by the anti-involution policy [12][13]. - The **港股 (Hong Kong stock market)** upstream livestock companies are currently in a challenging phase but are expected to improve by **2026** as the new cycle begins [22]. - **海大集团 (Haida Group)** is recommended for its strong market position and growth potential in both domestic and international markets [27]. Future Trends - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from the anti-involution policy, leading to a new upward price cycle in **2026** [15][34]. - The **meat cattle industry** is facing significant challenges, including price declines and industry losses, with a low degree of scale [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the agriculture industry, particularly in the animal protein sectors.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][5][4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with expectations of a simultaneous rise in domestic and international beef and milk prices [3][4]. - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growing industry that will benefit from demographic changes [3]. - The feed industry, particularly Haida Group, is expected to achieve excess returns due to the recovery in aquaculture [3]. - The report anticipates sustained profitability in the pig farming sector due to limited expansion intentions, with a focus on undervalued leading companies [3]. - The poultry sector is expected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from improved domestic demand [3]. Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices have started to rise, with the average price at 59.75 CNY/kg as of August 1, 2025, reflecting a 0.88% increase week-on-week and a 28.49% increase year-on-year [1][14]. - The pig market shows stable production capacity, with prices at 14.19 CNY/kg, up 0.78% week-on-week, and a forecast for continued price stability into 2025 [1][13]. Poultry - White chicken supply has slightly increased, with prices at 6.70 CNY/kg, up 0.6% week-on-week [1][14]. - Yellow chicken prices are stable, with potential benefits from domestic demand improvements [1][14]. Feed - Soybean meal prices are at 2998 CNY/ton, up 1.15% week-on-week, with a favorable supply-demand outlook [2][16]. - Corn prices are at 2401 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.12% week-on-week but a 0.67% increase year-on-year [2][16]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Livestock: YouRan Agriculture, Modern Agriculture, China Shengmu, Guangming Meat [3][4]. - Pets: Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., RuiPu Bio [3]. - Feed: Haida Group [3]. - Swine: Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, Bangji Technology, Shennong Group, New Five Feng, Juxing Agriculture, Tangrenshen, Tiankang Biological [3]. - Poultry: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., Shengnong Development [3]. - Animal Health: Keqian Biological, Huisheng Biological [3]. - Planting Chain: Hainan Rubber, Qianyuan High-Tech, Fengle Seed Industry, Longping High-Tech [3].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Beef Cattle Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the beef cattle industry in China, highlighting key trends and forecasts for 2025 and beyond [1][10]. Key Points and Arguments Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, China's beef cattle slaughter volume increased by 2.9% year-on-year, while beef production rose by 4.5%. However, the cattle inventory decreased by 2.1%, and imports fell by 9.5%, indicating a slight contraction in overall beef supply [1][10]. - Seasonal demand patterns were noted, with a peak in beef prices observed post-Chinese New Year due to delayed operations of small slaughterhouses and concentrated orders from large enterprises [1][13]. - The average profit for small bulls and heifers sold after the Spring Festival was reported to be over 2,000 yuan, with some cases reaching up to 3,000 yuan [14][15]. Future Projections - A decline in both cattle inventory and slaughter volume is expected in the second half of 2025, with an overall production decrease of approximately 1%. Imports are projected to drop to around 2.5 million tons [1][16]. - The beef price is anticipated to be higher than in 2024, with a forecasted price range of 26.5 to 27 yuan per kilogram in the fourth quarter [17][21]. - A new cycle in the beef cattle industry is expected to begin in the first half of 2026, with peak prices projected between 32 to 35 yuan per kilogram, potentially lasting until 2027 [1][20]. Market Structure and Challenges - The industry is characterized by a high proportion of small-scale producers, with over 90% of cattle raised in small groups, leading to inefficiencies and market volatility [3][9]. - The concentration of slaughtering operations remains low, with no dominant players in the market, which further restricts overall industry efficiency [9]. - The impact of imported beef, which accounts for about 25% of total consumption, is significant for short-term market supply [6][28]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost structure of beef cattle farming is heavily influenced by the purchase price of calves or feeder cattle, which constitutes about 68% of total costs, while feed costs account for 17% [14][24]. - The profitability of beef cattle farming is closely tied to the feeding methods and cost structures, with concentrated feeding models showing better profitability compared to self-breeding [14][26]. Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has maintained a supportive stance towards the domestic beef market since becoming a net importer in 2013, with recent measures aimed at combating smuggling and ensuring the development of local producers [28][29]. Additional Important Insights - The cyclical nature of the beef market was discussed, with historical cycles lasting approximately 8 to 9 years, influenced by factors such as consumer income, feed costs, and external market conditions [8]. - The current economic environment and consumer behavior are expected to impact demand, with seasonal variations affecting purchasing patterns [7][11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the beef cattle industry, focusing on supply-demand dynamics, future projections, market structure, cost analysis, and regulatory considerations.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in grain production and acquisition in Changchun, with a record high of 1,116.5 million tons of new grain collected by the end of the 2024 acquisition period, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.6 million tons [1] - Changchun's agricultural output value reached 184 billion yuan, with per capita disposable income for farmers increasing by over 30% compared to five years ago, reaching 21,774 yuan [1] - The grain production in Changchun is projected to reach a historical high of 25.99 billion jin in 2024, with an increase in grain yield to 1,090.2 jin per mu [1] Group 2 - Changchun has implemented comprehensive grain quality safety monitoring, with 502 batches of grain and oil samples tested to ensure the safety of newly harvested grains and finished products [2] - The city has established a modern agricultural system with 13.03 million mu of high-standard farmland, addressing issues related to black soil degradation through collaboration with the Chinese Academy of Sciences [2][3] - The agricultural processing industry in Changchun is expected to reach a scale of 78.71 billion yuan in output value in 2024, accounting for one-third of the province's agricultural processing output [6]

Group 1 - The overall growth of autumn grain crops is normal and favorable, with summer grain production achieving a stable harvest despite local drought conditions, resulting in a summer grain output of 2994.8 billion jin, the second highest in history [3] - The production of autumn grain, which accounts for 75% of the annual grain output, is crucial for meeting the target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin for this year, with expectations for increased planting area and high-yield crops like corn [3] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focused on improving yield per unit area and disaster prevention to ensure a good harvest for autumn grain [3] Group 2 - The pig farming industry has maintained profitability for 14 consecutive months, with pork production and consumption accounting for about 60% of total meat consumption in China [5] - Measures have been taken to manage production capacity and stabilize pig prices, with a 0.8% decrease in the number of pigs over five months old, indicating a reduction in the upcoming slaughter volume [5] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs plans to promote stable development in pig production by adjusting production capacity and ensuring effective disease control measures [5] Group 3 - The beef and dairy farming sectors have shown signs of recovery, with beef farming turning profitable after a series of supportive policies, and dairy farming also seeing positive results [6] - The price of live cattle has rebounded since the Spring Festival, and the dairy sector has experienced a 4.2% decrease in Holstein cow inventory and a 7.7% reduction in milk production costs [6]

Group 1 - The agricultural and rural sectors in China have shown a 7.5% year-on-year increase in the value added of the agricultural product processing industry in the first half of the year [1] - Over 300,000 new rural construction projects have been added to the project library, with more than 100 billion yuan in project funding allocated, significantly promoting small-scale public infrastructure construction in villages [1] - The rural drinking water coverage rate has reached 94%, with over 90% of villages having access to 5G [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on employment support in poverty-stricken areas, enhancing the agricultural supply chain, and improving income for farmers [1] - The ministry has implemented measures to improve rural education and elderly care services, with over 16,000 rural nursing homes built [2] - The pig farming sector has maintained profitability for 14 consecutive months, with a slight decrease in the number of large pigs indicating a potential stabilization of pig prices [2] Group 3 - The beef and dairy farming sectors have turned profitable in the first half of the year after previous losses, with fresh milk prices stabilizing [3] - The summer grain production reached 299.48 billion jin, marking the second-highest production year on record [3] - The overall growth of autumn grain crops is favorable due to improved planting techniques and favorable weather conditions [3]