随着产业链深度整合、规模化牧场及奶牛单产水平均持续提升，上游产能波动放缓，奶价周期拉长。本 轮周期从2021年9月至今奶价已下行4年，累计下跌31%。供给端看，2025年9月我国奶牛存栏量相比1月 下降3.2%，牛奶产量随之增速回落，展望未来，随着饲料成本压力加大、奶价持续低位运行，牧场亏 损不断加深，存栏去化有望进一步深化，原奶产量随之实现下降。进口方面，国内大包粉仍有价格优 势，2026年进口量预计不会有显著增加。需求端看，乳制品产量已呈现边际改善，行业深加工产能即将 释放，出口大包粉及活牛的探索已逐渐落地，有望促进供需缺口进一步收窄。该行预计2026年奶价有望 实现企稳回升，届时上游牧场公司将直接受益。 全产业链龙头优势显著，肉奶价格共振有望贡献可观业绩弹性 开源证券发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予优然牧业(09858)"增持"评级。优然牧业是国内牧场龙头，规模 优势显著，公司在周期底部经营韧性十足，收入稳步增长，2025H1现金EBITDA仍保持增长。公司扩产 完成后进入稳健发展期，后续或将受益于原奶及肉牛价格同步上涨，有望充分释放业绩弹性。该行预计 公司2025-2027年归母净利-0.88、13.67、 ...

（来源：中国经济导报） 转自：中国经济导报 本报记者 | 白雪 黄河奔腾过塞上，沃野千里绘新篇。近年来，宁夏回族自治区坚定担当建设黄河流域生态保护和高质量 发展先行区、创建铸牢中华民族共同体意识示范区使命任务，加快推进乡村全面振兴，2025年，全区第 一产业增加值469.86亿元，增长6%，增速居全国第二位；农村居民人均可支配收入20142元，增长 5.9%，增速居全国第八位。广袤的宁夏大地上，一幅农业强、农村美、农民富的塞上江南新图景正徐 徐展开。 筑牢粮食安全与重要农产品供给底线 春种一粒粟，秋收万颗子。在宁夏平原的田野上，"藏粮于地、藏粮于技"的实践从未停歇。宁夏严格落 实粮食安全党政同责，以"精耕细作"破解资源约束，推动粮食生产实现"二十二连丰"，重要农产品供应 充足、质优，为乡村振兴夯实了"粮袋子""菜篮子"。 "智能+网格"筑牢监测预警防线。为完善防返贫动态监测和帮扶机制，宁夏构建"八必访"风险户数据模 型，通过智能多维分析比对、赋值返贫风险系数、App一键预警，统筹开展防返贫监测对象和农村低保 对象入户核查、数据采集、信息比对和综合研判，建立覆盖全区126.2万户413.3万人所有农户的基础信 ...

初春时节，户外依旧寒意袭人，锡林郭勒盟多伦县大北沟镇九号村的现代农业产业园区内却暖意涌动。 走进蔬菜大棚，只见土地平整，静待插秧；不远处的肉牛养殖区里，棚圈洁净规范，牛群膘肥体 壮。"我们有了党建搭台、新模式撑腰，村里的肉牛养殖和设施蔬菜产业越做越红火，村民的"腰包"也 越来越鼓了！"九号村党支部书记亢福生站在大棚旁，望着蓬勃发展的产业园区，脸上满是憧憬。 亢福生的底气，源于多伦县创新推行的"123（一体、两核、三创）"党建引领模式。2025年以来，该县 坚持以高质量党建引领乡村振兴，以"一体推进、两核驱动、三创争先"为实践路径，把党的政治优势、 组织优势转化为产业发展优势和乡村治理效能，为壮大村集体经济、促进农民增收致富注入了强劲动 能。 坚持"一体"聚合力，有效破解发展碎片化难题。九号村曾是典型的集体经济薄弱村，转机源于"县级统 筹、乡镇谋划、村抓落地"的一体推进机制。多伦县成立村集体经济发展领导小组，立足县域资源禀 赋，统筹整合各类政策、资金、人才资源，为乡村产业发展量身定制思路举措。大北沟镇党委主动靠前 指导，九号村党支部充分发挥战斗堡垒作用，牵头推行EPCO（设计——采购——施工——运营）一体 化经 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月22日 2026年02月23日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（195） 优于大市 奶牛存栏节后有望维持去化，石化链涨价或带动橡胶价格 原奶：奶牛去化有望延续，原奶价格 2026 年或迎拐点。2026 年 2 月 5 日， 国内主产区原奶均价为 3.04 元/kg，周度环比持平，同比-2.56%。 周度农产品跟踪：年内肉奶周期有望共振反转，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。2026 年 2 月 14 日生猪价格 11.61 元/公斤，周环比-2.60%；7kg 仔猪价格约 357.14 元/头，周环比-0.13%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。2026 年 2 月 14 日，鸡苗价格 2.33 元/羽，周环比+18.27%；毛鸡价格 7.32 元/公斤，周环比+0.27%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。2026 年 2 月 10 日浙江快大 三黄鸡/青脚麻鸡/雪山草鸡斤价分别为 4.7/4.4/5.6 元，周环比分别 +2.17%/-6.38%/+0.00%。 豆粕：估值处于历史低位，关注潜在天气或贸易端催化。2026 年 2 月 ...

通辽市科尔沁左翼后旗是内蒙古肉牛养殖大旗，2025年牛存栏达96.66万头。新春时节，记者走进科左 后旗，听听养牛户和肉牛养殖企业的新年期盼。 家住孟根达坝牧场的马宇飞已有20多年养牛经验，最多时家里有育肥牛超百头。2020年以来，她和丈夫 建起标准化养殖场，却遭遇肉牛市场低迷。 2025年底，情况有了变化。科左后旗农牧局畜牧股负责人乌日汉介绍，随着肉牛市场供需关系改善，牛 价逐步回升，通辽育肥牛成交价较年内低点反弹12%，犊牛价格持续走高。 一大早，马宇飞急匆匆走进养殖场，照看年前新买来的几十头"对儿牛"。马宇飞说，"现在牛价明显回 升，牛犊价格也是一路涨，相信今年肯定会好起来。" 马宇飞在牛市上选牛。新华社发 马宇飞口中的"对儿牛"，是指一头母牛带一头牛犊。她打算年后继续养3个月再出售，"短期育肥，起码 保本。"为了适应市场变化，马宇飞改变策略，尝试小批量短期育肥以积累资金，然后扩大规模。春节 前，她走遍伊胡塔牛市、沃金牛市、成峰牛市等通辽市大大小小的牛市，收购了30组"对儿牛"。 "牛价在波动中上涨，很难每一步都走在节骨眼上。懂牛、看牛、养牛、卖牛，要样样精通才行。"马宇 飞说，"今年过了个好年，一看到 ...

基础设施完善后，巴立村把特色产业作为增收之本，找准"甜密码"，走好"致富路"。当地依托气候与土 地条件，重点发展甘蔗种植、牛羊养殖、生猪养殖等特色产业，政府送政策、送技术、送种苗，定期开 展种养培训，全程指导田间管理与疫病防控。优质甘蔗苗免费发放到户，科学种植让产量与效益稳步提 升；肉牛、生猪养殖形成规模，秸秆饲料化利用等项目落地见效，拓宽增收渠道。 巴立村地处田东县南部大石山区，属典型喀斯特地貌，山高坡陡、土地贫瘠，曾是广西脱贫攻坚中难啃 的 "硬骨头"。全村辖多个自然屯，群众世代散居山间，长期受交通闭塞、水源短缺、基础设施薄弱制 约，发展步履维艰。过去，村民住吊脚木楼，下层圈养牲畜、中层住人、上层堆放粮食，生产生活条件 极为艰苦。上世纪八九十年代，粮食短缺是常态，不少家庭依靠政府发放的缺粮证，到乡镇粮所购买平 价粮度日，"吃饱饭" 曾是全村最朴素的愿望。 穷则思变，通路通水通电成为巴立村摆脱贫困的第一步。陆家二哥是土生土长的巴立人，如今在县城任 教，见证了村庄从闭塞到通达的全过程。"以前出门全靠翻山越岭，上初中要背着米走5个小时山路。" 他回忆，1979年村里修通第一条机耕路，结束了肩挑背扛的历史；200 ...

一辆满载肉牛的运输车拐进村道，稳稳停在村民靳成芬家的"托牛所"门前。司机跳下车，哈着白气 喊道："芬姐，老规矩，34头大牛，3头小牛！" 傍晚，黑龙江省甘南县甘南镇欢喜村，气温降至零下12摄氏度。 欢喜村常住人口超千人，其中近七成端起了"牛饭碗"。不只有牛经纪人和托牛所，还有开民宿饭馆 的、卖兽药饲料的、搞物流运输的，甚至有专编牛缰绳的……10余个衍生行业每年为村民带来超4500万 元的收入。 近两年，甘南牛市面貌一新。曾经仅7米宽的主干道已拓宽至19米。市场内科学分区，停车、交 易、休息区井然有序。新建的千间圈舍，可容纳万头牛、马同时交易。 夜色已浓。靳成芬拿起手电，巡查一个个安静的牛圈。最后，手电光停在后院那片空地上。靳成芬 筹谋着，今年在这里立起一排新圈舍，"让更多牛在这安然过冬，让更多的客商放心将这些'活资产'托 付给我们。" 托牛所里寄存的，不只是等待交易的牛，还有"芬姐们"关于未来的朴实愿景。（记者 崔 佳 方 圆） 靳成芬应声利落，拉开牛舍栅栏门。牛群挨挨挤挤涌入院内，牛蹄踏在雪地上，闷响阵阵。靳成芬 快速扫过每一头牛，眼神很尖："那头黑白花的西门塔尔有点打蔫儿，得单独留意；3头小牛犊腿脚尚 软 ...

Core Viewpoint - The modernization of agriculture and rural areas is crucial for the overall modernization of China, with a focus on addressing the "three rural issues" as a top priority for the government [2][18]. Group 1: Food Security and Agricultural Production - Ensuring national food security is a top priority, with a target of stabilizing grain production at around 1.4 trillion jin by 2026, emphasizing quality and efficiency [4]. - The government aims to maintain stable grain planting areas while enhancing yield per unit area through a new round of actions to increase grain production capacity [4][5]. - There is a need to optimize agricultural production structures and promote the cultivation of high-quality grain varieties, particularly focusing on increasing soybean production to address food security gaps [4][5]. Group 2: Agricultural Capacity and Technology - Strengthening farmland protection and improving soil quality are essential for sustainable agricultural production [5]. - Enhancing agricultural technology and innovation is critical, with a focus on integrating technology into agricultural practices and promoting the use of advanced machinery [5]. - Establishing a robust agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation system is necessary to improve resilience against extreme weather events [5]. Group 3: Rural Development and Poverty Alleviation - A mechanism for preventing poverty and ensuring assistance is to be established, focusing on early identification and intervention for those at risk of falling back into poverty [8][9]. - The government emphasizes the importance of industry support for sustainable development, with a focus on long-term growth rather than short-term fixes [9]. - Continuous support for underdeveloped areas is necessary, with a focus on infrastructure development and enhancing public services [9][10]. Group 4: Rural Infrastructure and Living Conditions - Improving rural infrastructure and public services is vital for enhancing the quality of life in rural areas, including better access to education, healthcare, and utilities [13]. - The integration of various industries, such as agriculture, tourism, and culture, is encouraged to create a more diverse and resilient rural economy [12][13]. Group 5: Governance and Policy Implementation - Strengthening the leadership of the Communist Party in rural work is essential for effective policy implementation and coordination [18][20]. - There is a need for tailored approaches to rural governance that consider local conditions and promote farmer participation in decision-making [20]. - Continuous training and capacity building for rural officials are necessary to enhance their ability to implement agricultural and rural policies effectively [20].

Group 1: Mushroom Industry in Hebei - The mushroom industry in Hebei's Handan city has seen significant improvements, with a new model of "company + base + farmers" being implemented, leading to better production and pricing for farmers [1][2] - Farmers like Yin Yonghui have reported increased incomes, with some earning around 200,000 yuan annually from their mushroom production [3] - The establishment of the Fengshuo Edible Fungus Planting Company has centralized production, technology, and sales, enhancing efficiency and profitability for local mushroom farmers [1][3] Group 2: Economic Development in Shanxi - The village of Gongyang in Shanxi has transformed from a poverty-stricken area to a thriving community through the development of three key industries: wood ear mushrooms, tourism, and beef cattle [4][5] - The wood ear mushroom industry has been supported by favorable policies, including low-interest loans and subsidies for production costs, leading to increased farmer participation and investment [5][6] - The tourism sector has flourished, with local attractions drawing over 80,000 visitors annually, significantly boosting local incomes [7] Group 3: Agricultural Innovations in Liaoning - The agricultural landscape in Zhangwu County, Liaoning, has shifted from traditional crops to high-value products like millet and rice, with significant increases in yield due to improved farming techniques [9] - The county has achieved a historical high in grain production, reaching 2.475 billion jin, thanks to advancements in agricultural practices and technology [9] Group 4: Community Initiatives in Guangdong - The "Integrity Vegetable Stall" in Guangdong has maintained a 23-year record of zero disputes and theft, showcasing a successful model of community trust and ethical business practices [10][11] - The village has implemented various cultural and sports initiatives, contributing to both social cohesion and economic development, with collective income projected to reach 2.8 million yuan in 2024 [11] Group 5: Winter Melon Farming in Hainan - The Daan Village in Hainan has become known for its black-skinned winter melons, with a significant portion of the community engaged in this lucrative crop, leading to substantial profits for farmers [12][14] - The village has adapted to challenges such as climate change and soil acidity by collaborating with agricultural experts to improve crop yields and sustainability [14] Group 6: Tourism Development in Xinjiang - The village of Saluweng in Xinjiang has begun to develop its tourism sector by leveraging its unique border protection stories, attracting over 30,000 visitors and generating 300,000 yuan in tourism revenue [15][16] - Community cleanliness initiatives have improved the village's appeal to tourists, contributing to a positive cycle of increased visitation and local economic growth [16][17]

Group 1: Mushroom Industry in Hebei - The mushroom industry in Hebei's Handan City has seen significant improvements due to the "company + base + farmer" model, which unifies seed supply, technology, standards, and purchasing [1][2] - Farmers like Yin Yonghui have reported increased incomes, with some earning around 200,000 yuan annually from their mushroom production [3] - The establishment of a new production line in 2026 is expected to double the daily processing capacity, further enhancing profitability for local farmers [3] Group 2: Wood Ear Mushroom and Tourism in Shanxi - The village of Gongyang has successfully developed a wood ear mushroom industry, with farmers like Liang Xiaoping investing significantly and benefiting from government subsidies [5][6] - The tourism sector has also flourished, with local businesses like agritourism generating substantial daily incomes during peak seasons [7] - The combination of mushroom farming and tourism has contributed to an increase in average annual income for villagers, exceeding 20,000 yuan [8] Group 3: Agricultural Development in Liaoning - The agricultural landscape in Zhangwu County has transformed, with a focus on high-yield crops like millet and rice, leading to record grain production [9] - The implementation of advanced agricultural techniques has resulted in increased crop yields, with some farmers reporting over 2,000 jin per mu [9] - The county's efforts in soil improvement and sustainable farming practices have significantly enhanced the quality of agricultural output [9] Group 4: Integrity in Local Markets - The "integrity vegetable stall" in Guangdong has maintained a 23-year record of zero disputes and theft, showcasing a model of trust in local commerce [10][11] - The village has actively promoted moral values and community engagement, leading to a thriving local economy and increased collective income [11] Group 5: Winter Melon Cultivation in Hainan - The black-skinned winter melon has become a key crop in Daan Village, with farmers expecting substantial profits from their cultivation [12][14] - The village has transitioned from traditional crops to winter melon, with over 90% of households participating in its cultivation [14] - Collaboration with agricultural research institutions has improved soil quality and crop resilience, ensuring sustainable growth for the future [14] Group 6: Tourism Development in Xinjiang - The village of Saluwulang has begun to develop its tourism sector, leveraging its unique border protection stories to attract visitors [15][16] - The village expects to receive over 30,000 tourists annually by 2025, generating significant income for local residents [15] - Community initiatives to maintain cleanliness and enhance the visitor experience have contributed to the village's growing reputation as a tourist destination [16]