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中信建投:回调不改大周期逻辑 当前或为布局牧业良好时机
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 08:09
中信建投(601066)发布研报称,短期来看,受近两月奶牛存栏去化程度有所放缓的影响,牧业相关标 的股价整体有所回调。然而,短期因素不会对周期逻辑本身产生冲击,牛周期之下肉奶共振的逻辑依旧 没有改变。短期数据冲击之下的回调反倒成为此轮大的周期投机机会之下非常好的布局时点。向后看, 伴随需求的季节性走弱,叠加相关经营牧场主体经营压力的持续加大,奶牛存栏仍将维持去化趋势,原 奶周期触底的拐点越发临近。 原料成本大幅提升的风险:牧业相关公司主要以豆粕、玉米等作为饲料原材料,如果后续因为各种原因 玉米等大宗价格大幅上涨,即使原奶价格后续触底反弹,牧场整体的盈利也将会受到一定冲击和影响。 根据农业农村部最新的数据来看,截止10月11日,我国牛肉批发均价已经达到66.04元/kg,尽管相较国 庆节前66.32元的高点略有回调,但是仍然处于接近近一段时间内的新高水平,节后需求转淡并未显著 影响牛肉价格,整体肉牛价格上行趋势十分明显。与此同时,从商务部最新披露的白条牛和牛肉批发价 格来看,受双节备货的影响,二者价格分别达到64.58/71.26元,均创下近一段时间的新高水平。结合当 前的价格走势可以明确判断肉牛价格已经进入明 ...
优然牧业涨超4% 机构称牛周期下肉奶共振逻辑依旧不变
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 07:21
国盛证券则认为,奶价有望走出下行周期,牵引牧业乳业机会。该行预计本轮奶价进入下行周期末端, 伴随存栏去化加速,有望迎来拐点,但在规模牧场占比提升背景下,奶价涨跌波动将显著平抑。对于牧 业公司而言,奶价降幅收窄及淘牛减亏,将带来报表端利润修复。 消息面上,中信建投(601066)证券指出,短期来看,由于需求端季节性回暖、供给端奶牛热应激导致 产量减少等因素影响,近两月奶牛存栏去化程度有所放缓。然而,短期因素不会对周期逻辑本身产生冲 击,牛周期之下肉奶共振的逻辑依旧没有改变。短期数据冲击之下的回调反倒成为此轮大的周期投机机 会之下非常好的布局时点。向后去看,伴随需求的季节性走弱,叠加相关牧场主体经营压力的持续加 大,奶牛存栏仍将维持去化趋势,原奶周期触底的拐点越发临近。 优然牧业(09858)涨超4%,截至发稿,涨4.61%,报3.18港元,成交额8268.43万港元。 ...
港股异动 | 优然牧业(09858)涨超4% 机构称牛周期下肉奶共振逻辑依旧不变
智通财经网· 2025-10-13 07:18
国盛证券则认为,奶价有望走出下行周期,牵引牧业乳业机会。该行预计本轮奶价进入下行周期末端, 伴随存栏去化加速,有望迎来拐点,但在规模牧场占比提升背景下,奶价涨跌波动将显著平抑。对于牧 业公司而言,奶价降幅收窄及淘牛减亏,将带来报表端利润修复。 智通财经APP获悉,优然牧业(09858)涨超4%,截至发稿,涨4.61%,报3.18港元,成交额8268.43万港 元。 消息面上,中信建投证券指出,短期来看,由于需求端季节性回暖、供给端奶牛热应激导致产量减少等 因素影响,近两月奶牛存栏去化程度有所放缓。然而,短期因素不会对周期逻辑本身产生冲击,牛周期 之下肉奶共振的逻辑依旧没有改变。短期数据冲击之下的回调反倒成为此轮大的周期投机机会之下非常 好的布局时点。向后去看,伴随需求的季节性走弱,叠加相关牧场主体经营压力的持续加大,奶牛存栏 仍将维持去化趋势,原奶周期触底的拐点越发临近。 ...
猪价下跌或加速产能去化,牛肉价格有望加速上涨
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 11:11
Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, with a focus on selecting low-cost quality enterprises [2][22]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural market [12][13]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing significant losses due to falling prices, with an average price of 10.91 yuan/kg, leading to a potential reduction in production capacity [21][22]. - The poultry sector shows signs of stabilization, with yellow feathered chicken prices remaining resilient due to improved downstream demand [3][37]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory is on a downward trend [4][42]. - The planting industry is experiencing pressure from supply and demand, but potential price increases could occur if there are significant reductions in grain production [5][49]. - Feed prices are stabilizing, and the aquaculture sector is showing upward trends in pricing [62][68]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The national average pig price has dropped below 11 yuan/kg, with the industry currently in a loss-making state. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.48 kg, indicating high inventory levels despite price declines [2][21]. - Short-term expectations indicate further price declines, but medium to long-term prospects remain positive for quality enterprises [22]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feathered chicken is 6.88 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The profitability of parent breeding chickens has improved, while broiler profitability remains under pressure [3][36]. - The sector is expected to stabilize as consumer demand gradually recovers [37]. Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 27.20 yuan/kg, with expectations for steady price increases as the consumption season approaches. The dairy sector is experiencing a reduction in inventory due to ongoing financial pressures [4][42]. - The beef cycle is anticipated to begin anew, with a focus on the synergy between meat and dairy production [43]. Planting Industry - Recent fluctuations in grain prices are noted, with corn prices at 2215.71 yuan/ton and soybean prices at 3987.37 yuan/ton. The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in crop yields occur [5][48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of advancements in seed technology and production efficiency [49]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs and poultry remain stable, while aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, particularly for shrimp and fish products [62][68].
国盛证券:原奶周期拐点渐进 牧业乳企改善在途
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 06:16
9月25日中国牛肉均价71.1元/kg,相较2月低点+9.4%,肉牛价格参考陕西、山东、河南等省份,均在春 节后进入上行通道。肉牛价格的提振,一方面在2021-2024年牛肉价格下行阶段,行业已经历存栏去 化,且肉牛养殖以散户为主,行业去化程度较高,截至2025年6月末牛存栏9992万头,相较于2023年峰 值减少517万头;另一方面中国对进口牛肉依存度较高,24H1进口牛肉供给量占比约31%,2024年末商 务部对进口牛肉进行保障措施立案调查,25H1进口130万吨牛肉,同比-9.5%,结束8年增长趋势,2025 年8月商务部决定进一步延长调查期限至2025年11月26日,进口量的收窄进一步扩大国内牛肉供需缺 口。 国盛证券主要观点如下: 短期奶价上行,长期拐点可期 当前中秋国庆期间,乳制品需求迎来小高峰,伴随供给端陆续出清,原奶价格实现阶段性稳定,肉牛价 格已开始回升,后续奶价稳定及淘牛减亏将显著催化牧业板块机会,原奶供需平衡也有望带动乳企竞争 趋缓,带动乳制品机会。 原奶周期进入尾声,25H2去化有望提速 原奶价格经过4年下行周期,近期迎来阶段性稳定,全国主产区原奶均价从8月3.02元/kg陆续提升至9 ...
“新基建”激活“新动能” 看乡村都有哪些“新科技”
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-10-07 23:25
"晒晒太阳"就能玩转村庄。走进江苏苏州常熟蒋巷村,最先"抓住"游客眼球的是眼前这些"长"在屋顶、步道和树上的"光伏板"。光伏步道两侧,光伏板缝隙 里嵌着微型气象站,实时监测光照强度、温度湿度,数据传回供电部门打造的"能源大脑"后,系统会自动优化发电效率。 游客 季先生:正好我手机也没有电了,这个座椅可以无线充(电)蛮方便的,而且这个是光伏板发电,就是很环保。 在四川成都新津天府农博园,巨幅稻田画大熊猫成为大地画卷的新主题。收割后的稻谷快速进入粮仓之后,地里的秸秆也没浪费,通过文创师的一双巧手与 现代工艺的结合,小小的稻草和秸秆迎来了华丽"变身":"川剧变脸"、"哪吒脑海"等创意造型,在东部新区世博园打造出一个"巨型稻草人王国"。 四川天府农耕文化研究中心学术委员会委员 袁周平:从"田间废料"到"创意原料","秸秆变形记"是大地回馈的绿色智慧。下一步,我们将结合农耕文化和园 区产业特色,引入更多科技元素,比如利用3D打印技术制作个性化稻草人,开发稻草人主题的AR互动体验等等,让更多人感受到乡村的魅力与活力。 央视网消息:这个假期,乡村"新科技"扎堆涌现,"新基建"激活"新动能"让乡村绿色生活看得见摸得着。 在甘 ...
港股牧业股继续走高 优然牧业涨10.26%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-30 06:37
每经AI快讯,9月30日,港股牧业股继续走高,截至发稿,优然牧业(09858.HK)涨10.26%,报3.33港 元;中国圣牧(01432.HK)涨9.23%,报0.355港元;原生态牧业(01431.HK)涨3.39%,报0.305港元;现代 牧业(01117.HK)涨2.36%,报1.3港元。 ...
牧业股继续走高 奶牛产能去化或近尾声 机构称奶肉联动模式企业盈利能力突出
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 06:30
牧业股继续走高,截至发稿,优然牧业(09858)涨10.26%,报3.33港元;中国圣牧(01432)涨9.23%,报 0.355港元;原生态牧业(01431)涨3.39%,报0.305港元;现代牧业(01117)涨2.36%,报1.3港元。 天风证券(601162)指出,当前奶牛产能去化或近尾声,Q3青贮收购带来的资金压力可能推动出清边 际加速,原奶价格有望触底回升;牛肉价格或迎拐点,但因资金/信心/环保等多重因素影响补栏积极 性,其后续涨幅与持续性可能超预期。具备母牛资源或采用"奶肉联动"模式的企业,盈利能力更加突 出。建议关注优然牧业、中国圣牧、光明肉业(600073)、现代牧业、澳亚集团等。 消息面上,原生态牧业公布,与控股股东中国飞鹤订立协议,于2026至28年向其供应原料奶,建议年度 销售额上限分别为31亿元人民币、34亿元及37亿元,占总收入的96%;拟供应的原料奶售价将不逊于集 团独立第三方客户所提供之售价。 ...
港股异动 | 牧业股继续走高 奶牛产能去化或近尾声 机构称奶肉联动模式企业盈利能力突出
智通财经网· 2025-09-30 06:22
智通财经APP获悉,牧业股继续走高,截至发稿,优然牧业(09858)涨10.26%,报3.33港元;中国圣牧 (01432)涨9.23%,报0.355港元;原生态牧业(01431)涨3.39%,报0.305港元;现代牧业(01117)涨2.36%, 报1.3港元。 消息面上,原生态牧业公布,与控股股东中国飞鹤订立协议,于2026至28年向其供应原料奶,建议年度 销售额上限分别为31亿元人民币、34亿元及37亿元,占总收入的96%;拟供应的原料奶售价将不逊于集 团独立第三方客户所提供之售价。 天风证券指出,当前奶牛产能去化或近尾声,Q3青贮收购带来的资金压力可能推动出清边际加速,原 奶价格有望触底回升;牛肉价格或迎拐点,但因资金/信心/环保等多重因素影响补栏积极性,其后续涨 幅与持续性可能超预期。具备母牛资源或采用"奶肉联动"模式的企业,盈利能力更加突出。建议关注优 然牧业、中国圣牧、光明肉业、现代牧业、澳亚集团等。 ...
农林牧渔:养殖陷入亏损状态,去产能预期增强
Huafu Securities· 2025-09-28 12:36
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][78]. Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is experiencing continued price declines, leading to negative profits for farmers. As of September 26, the pig price was 12.50 CNY/kg, down 0.19 CNY/kg week-on-week. The profits for self-breeding and purchased piglet farming were -74.11 CNY/head and -236.57 CNY/head, respectively, with week-on-week declines of -49.66 CNY and -37.25 CNY [2][11][36]. - In the beef sector, prices for calves and fattened bulls have stabilized after recent increases, with calf prices at 32.36 CNY/kg and fattened bull prices at 25.96 CNY/kg, both unchanged week-on-week. The long-term supply of beef is expected to tighten, with a potential price upturn anticipated in 2026-2027 [3][38]. - The poultry sector is seeing mixed trends, with white feathered chicken prices experiencing slight fluctuations due to steady demand ahead of the holidays. As of September 26, the price was 6.90 CNY/kg, up 0.02 CNY/kg week-on-week [4][44]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Continued price decline in pig farming, with significant losses reported for farmers. The average weight of pigs being sold has shown a mixed trend, with group farms seeing slight increases while smallholders have decreased [2][11][24]. - The supply pressure remains high, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, although long-term adjustments in production capacity may lead to price recovery [36][32]. Beef Industry - The beef market is stabilizing after a period of price increases, with expectations of tightening supply in the medium to long term due to previous losses in the industry [3][38]. - The price of calves has increased by 34% since the beginning of the year, indicating a potential recovery in the market [38]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing stable prices with slight increases in certain areas due to tight supply. The egg price has decreased slightly, reflecting market conditions [4][44]. - The ongoing avian influenza situation may impact supply chains, but there is potential for recovery in consumption due to government policies promoting domestic demand [47]. Agricultural Products - The Argentine government's recent policy changes regarding export tariffs have significantly impacted soybean meal prices, leading to a sharp decline followed by a rebound [4][58]. - The focus on enhancing grain production and food security is emphasized, with potential growth in agricultural technology sectors [54].