Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead market is in a state of game between tight raw materials and poor demand, and the lead price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with continuous attention to macro uncertainties [1] - The zinc market is also characterized by wide - range consolidation in the short term due to macro uncertainties. In the medium - to - long term, the TC has room to rise, and the zinc price center may shift down, with continuous attention to macro - emotional disturbances [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,600 yuan/ton, down 0.60% [1] - The closing price of the lead futures main contract was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 0.83% [1] - The lead basis was 40 yuan/ton, up from - 100 yuan/ton [1] Trading and Position - The trading volume of the lead futures active contract was 36,146 lots, up 4.97% [1] - The open interest of the lead futures active contract was 38,454 lots, up 6.50% [1] Inventory - The LME lead inventory was 261,500 tons, unchanged [1] - The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 40,006 tons, up 3.44% [1] Industry Information - From April 26th to April 30th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 67.42%, up 1.19 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 42.46%, down 4.46 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 55.06%, down 18.5 percentage points [1] - A small secondary lead smelter in South China plans to start maintenance this weekend due to raw material shortages and losses, affecting a production of about 70 tons per day [1] Investment Strategy - The lead market is affected by tight raw materials and weak demand. The cost support and weak demand are in a game, and the lead price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [1] Zinc Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,790 yuan/ton, down 0.22% [1] - The closing price of the zinc futures main contract was 22,355 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [1] - The zinc basis was 435 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [1] Trading and Position - The trading volume of the zinc futures active contract was 115,056 lots, down 0.27% [1] - The open interest of the zinc futures active contract was 111,715 lots, up 5.40% [1] Inventory - The LME zinc inventory was 172,925 tons, unchanged [1] - The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 2,252 tons, down 4.33% [1] Industry Information - From April 26th to April 30th, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 49.61%, down 12.83 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 49.01%, down 9.97 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.57%, down 1.20 percentage points [1] - As of May 6th, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations was 84,100 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons compared with April 28th and an increase of 7,100 tons compared with April 30th [1] Investment Strategy - In the short term, the zinc market is affected by macro uncertainties and is in wide - range consolidation. In the medium - to - long term, the TC has room to rise, and the zinc price center may shift down [1]

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | | | | | 铅锌日评20250429：原料偏紧与需求不佳博弈，铅价区间整理；沪锌宽幅整理 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/29 | | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 元/吨 | 16,775.00 | -0.59% | | | 沪铅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 17,005.00 | 0.35% | | | | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | -230.00 | -160.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 | 元/吨 | 25.00 | 25.00 | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 美元/吨 美元/吨 | -18.41 -69.70 | 2.78 0.60 | | | 价差 | | 元/吨 | -15.00 | -20.00 | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 元/吨 | 45.00 | 40.00 | | 铅 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead price is expected to trade within a range due to the conflict between tight raw materials and poor demand, while the Shanghai zinc price will experience wide - range consolidation. In the short term, there is significant uncertainty in macro - sentiment for both metals. In the long - term, the zinc price center may shift downward as the TC has room for further increase [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Indicators - **Lead**: The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; the futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,945 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; the LME3 - month lead futures收盘价 (electronic) was 1,945 dollars/ton, down 0.74%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.71, up 0.78% [1]. - **Zinc**: The SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 23,110 yuan/ton, up 0.87%; the futures主力合约收盘价 was 22,750 yuan/ton, up 0.71%; the LME3 - month zinc futures收盘价 (electronic) was 2,645.5 dollars/ton, down 1.56%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.60, up 2.31% [1]. 3.2 Production and Consumption - **Lead**: From April 19 to April 25, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 66.23%, up 2.98 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 46.92%, down 9.73 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.56%, up 1.06 percentage points [1]. - **Zinc**: From April 19 to April 25, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 62.44%, down 1.90 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 58.98%, up 0.59 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 59.77%, down 1.02 percentage points [1]. 3.3 Market Conditions and Trends - **Lead**: The primary lead smelters have basically resumed production, but some refineries in Henan will undergo maintenance in April. The price of waste lead - acid batteries has been rising, causing some secondary lead smelters to cut production. Currently in the consumption off - season, the pre - May Day stocking enthusiasm is low [1]. - **Zinc**: The smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and the zinc ore processing fee has been rising. After the zinc price increase, downstream buyers are cautious. The downstream export orders to the US face problems, while those to other regions are normal [1]. 3.4 Inventory - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory was 274,075 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 37,971 tons, down 0.93% [1]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory was 180,050 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 3,185 tons, down 12.38%. As of April 24, the zinc ingot inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 1.21 million tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week [1]. 3.5 Trading Volume and Open Interest - **Lead**: The trading volume of the active futures contract was 37,979 lots, down 4.42%; the open interest was 38,733 lots, down 2.32%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.98, down 2.15% [1]. - **Zinc**: The trading volume of the active futures contract was 203,216 lots, up 12.68%; the open interest was 122,427 lots, down 2.12%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.66, up 15.12% [1].