基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。 | | | | 基本面：特朗普再度干预美联储独立性，美元指数走弱明显，金属得到支撑。华东华南平水铜现货升水 90 元 | | 铜 | 和 30 元，伦敦结构 89 美金 contango。 | | | 交易策略：短期市场依然交易降息预期走强和美元走弱，铜矿供应紧张。建议逢低买入。 | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.22%，收于 20785 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 72 元/吨，LME | | | 价格 2617 美元/吨。 | | 铝 | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅上升。 | | | 交易策略：宏观环境和产业供需均有改善的迹象，随着旺季临近，铝材开工率环比上涨，铝锭社会库存出现 | | | 去库拐点，需关注需求改善的持续性，预计价格震荡偏强，建议逢低做多。 | | | 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 | | | 市场表现：昨日氧化铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-3.61 ...

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2025年08月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：JH会议鲍威尔放鸽 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲顶前高 | 2 | | 铜：内外库存减少，价格坚挺 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，价格获支撑 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 11 | | 氧化铝：重心下移 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：窄幅区间震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线低位震荡 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 27 日 黄金：JH 会议鲍威尔放鸽 白银：冲顶前高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日 ...

2025年08月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：JH会议鲍威尔放鸽 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲顶前高 | 2 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：窄幅震荡 | 6 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：波动收敛 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：窄幅区间震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线低位震荡 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 26 日 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 黄金：JH 会议鲍威尔放鸽 白银：冲顶前高 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收 ...

2025年08月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：JH会议鲍威尔放鸽 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲顶前高 | 2 | | 铜：美元回落，价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：累库放缓 | 11 | | 氧化铝：横盘小涨 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：窄幅区间震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线低位震荡 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 黄金：JH 会议鲍威尔放鸽 白银：冲顶前高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 ...

文字早评 2025/08/25 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、工信部：将有序引导算力设施建设 加快突破 GPU 芯片等关键核心技术； 2、《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》发布，办法规定国家对稀土开采和冶炼分离实 行总量调控管理; 3、光伏行业协会倡议，坚决抵制以低于成本的价格开展恶性竞争，坚决抵制违反市场经济规律和法律 法规盲目扩产增产； 4、美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，形势表明美国就业下行风险上升。风险平衡 的变化可能构成调整政策的理由。鲍威尔称，美联储对降息持开放态度。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.37%/0.22%/-0.07%/-0.61%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.18%/-0.77%/-1.96%/-3.74%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.19%/-0.83%/-2.31%/-4.44%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.46%/0.32%/0.54%/0.63%。 交易逻辑：中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头， 进一步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度。近期持续上涨后 ...

有色金属日报 2025-8-25 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价先抑后扬，伦铜收涨 0.5%至 9809 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 79110 元/吨。产业层面，上 周三大交易所库存环比减少 0.04 万吨，其中上期所库存减少 0.5 至 8.2 万吨，LME 库存微增至 15.6 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.4 至 24.6 万吨。上海保税区库存增加 0.6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the domestic spot import window remained open. US economic data reduced market bets on consecutive Fed rate cuts, and Trump's claim of a US - EU trade deal is beneficial for reducing the US trade deficit. LME copper inventory remained stable, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. As the seasonal off - season nears its end, downstream orders are expected to pick up, and the low scrap copper开工 rate is conducive to refined copper substitution. The copper market is in a balanced state between bulls and bears, waiting for external factors to break the current oscillation [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The fundamental support for alumina weakened, but short - term deep declines are limited. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the pressure from short - sellers may ease. The increase in aluminum ingot casting volume and early restocking by some end - user sectors have led to an uneven inventory build - up. Electrolytic aluminum continues to follow a "time - for - space" rhythm [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories increased. The cost support for stainless steel remains, and the nickel iron transaction price center has shifted upward. Overall, the nickel market fundamentals have changed little and are in an oscillatory state [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The US 8 - month Markit composite PMI initial value was 55.4, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, and the service PMI initial value was 55.4. LME copper inventory was 156,350 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,052 tons to 246,480 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 66 tons to 25,157 tons, and BC copper decreased by 599 tons to 6,125 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 3,151 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase, AL2510 closed at 20,720 yuan/ton with a 0.58% increase, and AD2511 closed at 20,230 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3,244 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot was at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.7% to 14,940 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.36% to 119,760 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons to 209,598 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 29 tons to 22,588 tons [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On August 21, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 78,760 yuan/ton, and the premium was 120 yuan/ton. The 1 bright scrap copper price in Guangdong remained at 73,100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained unchanged at 156,350 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 66 tons to 25,157 tons, and the total domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 21.8 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,740 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous day. LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 279,600 tons, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 1,481 tons to 59,422 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi aluminum price was 20,720 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price was 20,630 yuan/ton. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 479,525 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3,048 tons to 59,890 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons to 6.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 122,350 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons to 209,598 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 29 tons to 22,588 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price was 22,285 yuan/ton, up 0.3%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875 tons to 69,375 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.24 million tons to 11.74 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price was 267,650 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. LME tin inventory increased by 25 tons to 1,740 tons, and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased by 71 tons to 7,258 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and has published dozens of professional articles [49]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [49]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [50].

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年08月21日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 有色板块集体小幅反弹，建议暂时观望或少量逢高加空，09合约上 方压力区间21000-21200，下方支撑区间20000-20200，可买入 虚值看跌期权做保护。氧化铝现货价格小幅下跌，在产产能增加， 消息影响发酵过后盘面回落，建议逢高可适量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend, such as high - level oscillation, slight decline, waiting for policy guidance, etc. [2][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12, up 0.32%. The SPDR Gold ETF's position decreased by 1. [2][7][10] - **Silver**: Forecasted to decline slightly, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9162, up 1.31%. The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 28. [2][7][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: Waiting for the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance, with narrowing price fluctuations and a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract yesterday was 78,630, down 0.30%. PT Smelting's smelting plant extended its maintenance period due to equipment failure. [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22240, down 0.11%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1875 tons. [2][15][17] - **Lead**: Supported by inventory reduction, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16745, up 0.12%. Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 1481 tons. [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Forecasted to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 266,480, down 0.51%. [2][21][24] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20590. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 57.90 million tons, down 0.70 million tons. [2][25][27] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,830. [2][28][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,795. [2][29][34] Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Supported by macro - sentiment premium, with expected increase in import costs. [5] - **Propylene**: With tightening supply - demand and price support. [5] - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long term. [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Mainly in an oscillating trend, with short - term strengthening. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weak and in consolidation, with a slight rebound in the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market. [5] - **PTA**: Due to unplanned device shutdown, a long - spread strategy is recommended. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4860, up 1.72%. [2][61][62] - **MEG**: Expected to show a strong trend. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4473, down 0.09%. [2][61][62] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Compressing profit margins. [2] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market. [2] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The US bio - diesel exemption volume may be lower than expected, leading to an increase in international oil prices. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating and consolidating at a high level. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to the large increase in US soybeans overnight, Dalian soybean meal may rebound. [5] - **Soybean**: Rebounding and oscillating. [5] - **Corn**: Expected to run weakly. [5] - **Sugar**: Oscillating within a range. [5] - **Cotton**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, waiting for new drivers. [5] - **Egg**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of culling laying hens. [5] - **Live Pig**: Waiting for the end - of - month spot verification. [5] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. [5] Others - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the fact that the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined. The closing price of the iron - ore futures contract was 772.5, up 0.46%. [2][43][44] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the RB2510 contract was 3,121, down 0.03%. [2][46][47] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the HC2510 contract was 3,375, down 0.44%. [2][47] - **Silicon Iron**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the silicon - iron 2511 contract was 5638. [2][51] - **Manganese Silicon**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the manganese - silicon 2511 contract was 5820. [2][51] - **Coke**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the J2601 contract was 1664, down 0.8%. [2][54] - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the JM2601 contract was 1147, down 1.3%. [2][54] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 804.5, down 0.1%. [2][57][58] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is recommended to hold 10 short positions as appropriate. [5] - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum. [5] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly. [5]