2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲击50新高 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：小幅反弹 | 7 | | 铅：库存增加，限制价格回升 | 9 | | 锡：加速上行 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，警惕消息扰动 | 14 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：去库加速，震荡运行 | 16 | | 工业硅：上游继续复产，逢高布空思路 | 18 | | 多晶硅：市场消息再次发酵，关注实际落地 | 18 | | 铁矿石：宏观预期支撑，偏强震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/10/09 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/30 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/29 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/26 | -100.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/25 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/10/09 2025/09/30 2025/09/29 2025/09/26 ...

免责声明: 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -1000 175 理论价差 59 240 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -350 340 理论价差 44 156 跨品种套利跟踪 2025/10/10 铜/锌 铜/铝 铜/铅 铝/锌 铝/铅 铅/锌 沪（三连） 3.89 4.12 5.07 0.94 1.23 0.77 伦（三连） 3.61 3.88 5.35 0.93 1.38 0.67 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/10/10 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16775 1986 8.46 三月 17135 2016 11.02 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.83 -734.46 跨期套利跟踪 2025/10/10 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 3400 3470 3500 3400 理论价差 519 936 1361 1787 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 1175 1195 1230 1260 理论价差 209 323 438 553 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 380 375 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美国政府停摆、法国总理上任不足一月辞职、日本政治不确定性共同推高了避险情 | | ★★★ | 跳空高开 | 绪。短期沪金或挑战 910 位置，短线追高需要控制节奏仓位。中长期黄金支撑逻辑 | | | | 不变，降息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄金战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银跟随黄金、铜等市场大幅波动，短期情绪高涨。全球政策刺激明显，白银需求 | | 白银 | 跳空高开 | 坚挺，供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。黄金等品种波动会白银盘面波动有 | | ★★ | | 冲击。短线可试多，长线长期持有 | | | | 宏微共振，投机资金涌入铜市，伦铜创年内新高，节后沪铜或跟涨高开。建议铜前 | | 铜 | | 期多单继续持有，新多单等待回调企稳再入场，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 贵金属的平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景下，长期看好。 | | | | 国庆假期，伦锌震荡走强，伦锌库存不足 4 万吨，软挤仓风险 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for September 30, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Group 2: Power Coal - The power coal data shows the basis from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis gradually decreased from -95.4 yuan/ton on September 23 to -102.4 yuan/ton on September 29, while the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month remained 0.0 [2] Group 3: Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, data on fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented. The basis and price ratios of these commodities changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil was 15.24 yuan/ton on September 23 and 13.03 yuan/ton on September 29 [7] Chemical Commodities - In the chemical sector, the basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided. The basis of these commodities fluctuated from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For instance, the basis of rubber decreased from -825 yuan/ton on September 23 to -825 yuan/ton on September 29 [9] - The cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads of chemical commodities are also given. For cross - period spreads, different spreads such as 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month are shown for various chemicals. For cross - variety spreads, spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol are presented with their values changing from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [11] Group 4: Black Metals - The black metal data includes cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads, as well as basis data. For cross - period spreads, values for 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month are given for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. For cross - variety spreads, ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil are presented. The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal also changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [20][21] Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - In the domestic non - ferrous metal market, the basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis values of these metals fluctuated during this period [28] London Market - In the London market, data on LME non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. Information such as LME forward premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss are given for September 29, 2025 [33] Group 6: Agricultural Products - The agricultural product data includes basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads. For basis, values of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. are shown from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads are calculated for different months (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for various agricultural products. The cross - variety spreads such as the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, etc. are also presented with their values changing over the period [38] Group 7: Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures data includes basis and cross - period spreads. The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter are given for these stock index futures [49]

跨期套利跟踪 2025/09/30 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -100 -110 -150 -130 理论价差 514 927 1348 1769 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -150 -120 -75 -40 理论价差 213 332 450 569 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -25 -30 -20 -25 理论价差 215 331 446 562 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -215 -185 -165 -150 理论价差 210 317 423 529 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 0 170 340 620 锡 5-1 价差 1010 理论价差 5645 期现套利跟踪 2025/09/30 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 295 195 理论价差 346 787 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 330 180 理论价差 159 285 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/09/30 国内价格 LME ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall trend of precious metals is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the US government shutdown crisis, geopolitical conflicts, and the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China and high uncertainties in the overseas market, it is advisable to reduce positions on futures at high prices [5]. - Copper prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic data, supply disruptions, and weakening consumption. Short - term copper prices may have a correction, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions [7][10]. - Alumina is expected to maintain a weak operation due to the over - supply situation, import window opening, and the limited impact of policies on capacity investment [17]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and the alloy ingot spot price remains stable and slightly strong [19][20]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term, with possible seasonal inventory accumulation after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback on prices if demand does not recover rapidly [23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but there is still a risk of further decline if there is a large - scale delivery in LME. The supply of refined zinc may increase in October, and consumption is expected to remain weak [27][28][29]. - Lead prices may decline as the supply of lead ingots is expected to increase while consumption shows no obvious improvement [35][36]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with a relatively flat downstream consumption trend and a surplus in the refined nickel market, and attention should be paid to import and visible inventory changes [38][39]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with increased production in September but no obvious seasonal peak in demand, and cost support at the bottom [43][45]. - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips, as the inventory structure is prone to positive feedback between futures and spot prices, and there are uncertainties in supply and demand [48]. - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction, and it is recommended to exit long positions first and then re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday [50][51][52]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with limited supply growth, strong demand, and continuous inventory depletion [55]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with a tight supply at the mine end, weak demand, and slow improvement in the short - term fundamentals [56][60][61]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed up 0.28% at $3758.78 per ounce, and London silver closed up 2% at $46.032 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - The US dollar index fell 0.4% to 98.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield weakened to 4.164%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.04% to 7.1349 [3]. Important Information - US macro - data such as PCE price index and consumer confidence index were released, and the Fed's interest - rate decision probability was predicted [4][5]. - The US government faces a shutdown crisis, and there are signs of an escalation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [5]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices on futures and reduce positions to lock in profits [5]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper futures fell 0.79% to 81890 yuan per ton, and LME copper fell 0.69% to $10205 per ton. LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 14.44 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1228 tons to 32.22 million tons [7]. Important Information - China's power generation capacity data, the possible delay of the US employment report, and relevant industry policies were released [8][9]. - Argentina approved a copper project, and Grasberg's production is expected to decline [9][10]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices before the holiday, hold light positions, and consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [7]. Alumina Market Review - Alumina futures fell 49 yuan to 2867 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - Industry policies on alumina project investment were introduced, and information on production capacity, raw material prices, and imports was provided [13][14][17]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Cast aluminum alloy futures fell 115 yuan to 20200 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [19]. Important Information - Policies affecting the recycled aluminum industry were introduced, and the inventory of aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [19]. Trading Strategy - Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [20]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Shanghai aluminum futures fell 115 yuan to 20660 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [22]. Important Information - US economic data and electrolytic aluminum inventory changes were reported [22]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 1.23% to $2886.5 per ton, and Shanghai zinc fell 1.5% to 21705 yuan per ton. Spot trading was dull [27]. Important Information - Zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and domestic and imported zinc ore processing fees showed different trends [27]. Trading Strategy - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but pay attention to the risk of further decline if there is large - scale delivery in LME. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.37% to $2001.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead fell 0.09% to 17075 yuan per ton. Spot trading was general [31]. Important Information - The profitability of recycled lead smelters improved, and the production of lead batteries showed different trends [31][32]. Trading Strategy - Lead prices may decline, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell $85 to $15155 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1050 yuan to 120790 yuan per ton. Spot premiums showed different trends [38]. Important Information - Industry policies on resource exploration and a nickel mine exploration right auction were reported [38][39]. Trading Strategy - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Stainless steel futures fell 85 yuan to 12765 yuan per ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [42]. Important Information - India approved the BIS certification for steel from Taiwan, China [43]. Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [46]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and some spot prices strengthened [48]. Important Information - China's industrial silicon export data was reported, and there were rumors about production capacity expansion [48]. Trading Strategy - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [48]. Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures rebounded from the bottom, and spot prices were stable [50][51]. Important Information - A research on EU solar component production capacity was reported [51]. Trading Strategy - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction. Exit long positions first and re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday. Do reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts and sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [51][52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Lithium carbonate futures fell 1160 yuan to 72880 yuan per ton, and spot prices decreased [53]. Important Information - News about China's new energy vehicle development and a battery project was reported [53][55]. Trading Strategy - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [56]. Tin Market Review - Tin futures fell 0.12% to 273220 yuan per ton, and spot trading was not ideal [56]. Important Information - US PCE price index data and industry policies were reported [58][59]. Trading Strategy - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [61].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-26 现货方面：2025-09-25，LME铅现货升水为-40.08美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16950元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-10.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨 至16975元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16975元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化0元/吨至16975元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-75元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10350元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-25，沪铅主力合约开于17085元/吨，收于17090元/吨，较前一交易日变化25元/吨，全天交易日 成交46256手，较前一交易日变化2927手，全天交易日持仓62847手，手较前一交易日变化1776手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17145元/吨，最低点达到17080元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于17100元/吨，收于17125元/吨 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be strong [2] - Zinc: Likely to fluctuate weakly in a wide range [2] Group 2: Report Core Views - Copper prices may be supported in the long - term as the Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand situation into a deficit. Zinc prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term as the supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Night - time copper prices closed 0.4% lower. The supply of concentrates has been tight since the beginning of the year, but smelting output has continued to grow at a high rate. The power industry and automobile production and sales are growing positively, while the growth rate of home appliance output is slowing down, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand deficit and support copper prices in the long run. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed up 0.02%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally rebounded, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment and automobile production and sales are growing positively, while the growth rate of home appliance output is slowing down, and the real estate market is weak. The short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly in a range. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day closing price is 82,660 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 40 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 10,276 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 31.55 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 144,775 tons, and daily change is - 200 tons [2] - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day closing price is 20,760 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 10 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 2,664 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 2.10 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 517,150 tons, and daily change is 3,300 tons [2] - Zinc: Domestic previous - day closing price is 22,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 105 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 2,923 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 53.93 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 44,400 tons, and daily change is - 1,375 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous - day closing price is 122,680 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,110 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 15,240 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 174.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 230,586 tons, and daily change is 132 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous - day closing price is 17,060 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 120 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 2,009 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 36.80 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 219,725 tons, and daily change is - 250 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous - day closing price is 273,710 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,040 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 34,390 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 50.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 2,695 tons, and daily change is 120 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will undergo a sideways adjustment. The continuous rise of the US dollar restricts the upward movement of copper prices. Zinc has support at lower levels, and the continuous decline in lead inventories supports its price. Tin will trade within a range, aluminum will experience high - level fluctuations, alumina will operate weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices will trade at low levels due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will fluctuate due to the short - term game between supply - demand and costs [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamentals** - Gold: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 851.74 with a daily decline of 0.50%, and the night - session closing price was 858.12 with a night - session increase of 0.25%. Comex Gold 2510 rose 0.32% to 3780.50. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 21,639, and the position decreased by 18,781. The position of SPDR Gold ETF remained unchanged at 996.85. The inventory of Shanghai Gold increased by 5,091 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex Gold (in the previous day) increased by 62,032 troy ounces [5]. - Silver: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 10370 with a daily increase of 0.16%, and the night - session closing price was 10575.00 with a night - session increase of 1.72%. Comex Silver 2510 rose 3.07% to 45.470. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 decreased by 87,243, and the position decreased by 23,112. The position of SLV Silver ETF (in the day before yesterday) decreased by 79 to 15,390.07. The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 4944 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex Silver (in the previous day) increased by 406,878 troy ounces [5]. - **Trend Intensity** - Gold trend intensity is 0, and silver trend intensity is 1 [8]. 2. Copper - **Fundamentals** - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 82,710 with a daily increase of 3.44%, and the night - session closing price was 82380 with a night - session decline of 0.40%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price decreased by 0.43% to 10,276. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 283,166, and the position increased by 66,079. The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 243 tons, and the inventory of LME Copper decreased by 350 tons [10]. - **Macro and Industry News** - The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6%. China's refined copper imports in August were 307,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. Freeport announced force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and its comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower (for copper) and about 6% lower (for gold) than the July 2025 estimate [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity** - Copper trend intensity is 0 [12]. 3. Zinc - **Fundamentals** - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22045 with a daily increase of 0.85%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - trading price increased by 1.14% to 2922.5. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 48,547, and the position decreased by 10,581. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 774 tons, and the inventory of LME Zinc decreased by 600 tons [13]. - **News** - The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6% [14]. - **Trend Intensity** - Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14]. 4. Lead - **Fundamentals** - The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17090 with a daily increase of 0.15%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - trading price increased by 0.18% to 2002.5. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 2927, and the position increased by 1776. The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 2576 tons, and the inventory of LME Lead decreased by 175 tons [16]. - **News** - The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6%. The strong data increased the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut path, and the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in October cooled down [16]. - **Trend Intensity** - Lead trend intensity is 0 [16]. 5. Tin - **Fundamentals** - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 271,650 with a daily increase of 0.66%, and the night - session closing price was 272,950 with a night - session increase of 0.51%. The LME Tin 3M electronic - trading price increased by 0.13% to 34,315. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 9,649, and the position decreased by 2,419. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 76 tons, and the inventory of LME Tin increased by 120 tons [19]. - **Macro and Industry News** - The Digital RMB International Operation Center was officially launched, offering three platforms: cross - border digital payment, blockchain services, and digital assets. The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 218,000, the lowest since July [19]. - **Trend Intensity** - Tin trend intensity is 0 [22]. 6. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals** - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20765, the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2664. The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 146,073, and the position was 220,640. The LME注销仓单占比 was 20.95%. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise's profit was 4487.40, and the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 614,000 tons [23]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2942. The trading volume was 329,000, and the position was 303,116. The domestic average price of alumina was 3026 [23]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20385, the trading volume was 3950, and the position was 11,767 [23]. - **Comprehensive News** - Fed Governor Milan advocated cutting interest rates by 50 basis points each time to quickly reach the neutral interest rate [25]. - **Trend Intensity** - Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 0, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [25]. 7. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,450. The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,600, and the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 955. The red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 57 [26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,895. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) was 13,200 [26]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. The approved RKAB production in 2025 is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target. A nickel - iron smelting industrial park in Indonesia suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, expected to affect nickel - iron production by about 1900 metal tons per month [26][27]. - **Trend Intensity** - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [32].