原木价格价差分析

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中泰期货原糖周报-20250722
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 14:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the arrival of logs at ports will remain at a low level, and the supply side has certain support. The demand is in the off - season, and the port outbound is still weak. The subsequent demand will continue to be weak due to weather reasons. Although the terminal real - estate start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, the short - term demand decline space is limited. The short - term reduction in arrivals may lead to continuous inventory reduction, but the overall inventory reduction amplitude may be limited due to weak downstream demand. The prices of logs and wood squares are relatively stable, but the profit of logs and wood squares is expected to show a weak trend [7][9][11][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Log Overview Supply End - In the week of July 18, 2025, the number of arriving ships was 5, a decrease of 5 compared with the previous week; the arrival volume was 17.7 million cubic meters, a decrease of 16.65 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was 217.68, a decrease of 1.39 compared with the previous month, and a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The import volume of radiata pine was 160.68, a decrease of 8.32 compared with the previous month, and a year - on - year decrease of 6%. From the seasonal perspective of New Zealand's shipments, June and July are the off - seasons of the year, and the increase in foreign quotes restrains the import willingness of domestic traders to a certain extent, and the arrivals are expected to decrease gradually [7]. Demand and Inventory End - The weekly national shipment volume was 43.68, a month - on - month increase of 2.5. The apparent demand was 8.95, a month - on - month decrease of 26.7. The total inventory was 385, a month - on - month increase of 8.8. The off - season continues, the port outbound is still weak, and the subsequent demand will continue to be weak due to weather reasons. The short - term reduction in arrivals may lead to continuous inventory reduction, but the overall inventory reduction amplitude may be limited due to weak downstream demand [9]. Price and Spread - The foreign quotes of radiata pine and spruce remained unchanged. The spot prices of radiata pine and spruce were stable, and the wood square prices were also stable. The apparent data shows that the demand is okay, the spot valuation is low, and the expectation of the peak season in September drives the increase of the futures price. After the increase, the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, providing a certain hedging space [11][13]. Cost and Profit - The import cost of radiata pine and spruce increased slightly, and the import profit decreased. The profit of radiata pine and spruce wood squares was stable but at a loss. Affected by the weak demand of downstream and terminals, the profit of logs and wood squares is expected to show a weak trend [16]. Strategy Recommendation - For the industrial chain, the spot is stable, the finished products are adjusted downwards, the macro - economic meeting is held, and the commodity sentiment has improved. But the fundamental feeling is still weak, and there is a long - short game in the futures market. For the futures market, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to the change of basis. Enterprises with spot goods that meet the delivery standards can consider selling hedging when the spot trading is weak, or choose delivery after cost accounting. For option strategies, selling out - of - the - money call options or buying out - of - the - money put options can be considered for risk hedging or return enhancement, and strict risk management is required [18]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet - The log balance sheet shows the changes in supply, demand, and inventory from January 3, 2025, to July 18, 2025. The supply includes the number and weight of arriving logs, and the demand includes the average daily shipment volume and apparent demand. The inventory is divided by region and tree species, and the supply - demand difference is also calculated [20]. Part 3: Log Supply and Demand Analysis Supply End - It includes the shipment volume of New Zealand logs, log imports, and imports by tree species, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [26][28][31]. Demand End - It includes the average daily shipment volume of logs and the real - estate situation, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [35][38]. Downstream Analysis - It includes the price and profit analysis of wood squares and the analysis of downstream substitutes (aluminum alloy), but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [43][49][55]. Inventory End - It includes the summary of inventory, inventory by tree species, and inventory by region, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [59][61][67]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - It focuses on the import cost and profit of logs, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [73]. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis Log Foreign Quotes - The foreign quotes of radiata pine and spruce are involved, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [79]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices - The price seasonality graphs of radiata pine and spruce are provided, showing the price changes in 2024 and 2025 [82]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads - The spread seasonality of radiata pine and spruce is involved, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [85]. Basis between Radiata Pine and LG - The basis between radiata pine and LG is analyzed, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [91]. Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread of LG Main Contracts - The seasonal chart of LG main contracts shows the price changes in 2024 and 2025, and the inter - month spread is also involved, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [97][98].