原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月5日 曹剑兰 数据来源:海关总器、木联数据、Wind、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表 达的难见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,版权归 广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为" 发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 关注微信公众号 | Z0019556 | | --- | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月31日 | 12月30日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 737.0 | 756.0 | -1 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current situation features high inventory, weak spot prices, and limited upward momentum in the futures market. Short - term supply pressure has increased significantly, but long - term overseas supply may tighten. Demand is seasonally weak, and the current price has partly reflected negative expectations. In the short term, the price will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range with relatively limited downside space [1][4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Supply side: This week, New Zealand shipped 14 vessels (510,000 cubic meters) of logs to China, a week - on - week increase of 7 vessels (220,000 cubic meters). The arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports was 465,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 48%. However, the Canadian timber industry's capacity has shrunk due to US tariffs, and with the expected winter shutdown in North America, long - term overseas supply may tighten. Inventory continues to accumulate, with the total domestic softwood log inventory at 2.95 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%. Radiata pine inventory accounts for over 80%, concentrated in Shandong and Jiangsu ports. - Demand side: Demand is seasonally weak. The average daily outbound volume at 13 ports is 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. The decline in outbound volume in Fujian and Hebei is significant. The capital availability rate of construction sites has increased slightly by 0.04 percentage points to 59.8%, but there are few new projects, and the transmission of terminal demand is limited [4]. Logic Analysis - On the spot side, the prices at major ports have dropped by 10 - 30 yuan per cubic meter. The price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Taicang is 750 yuan per cubic meter, a year - on - year decrease of 6.25%. The overseas market price remains at $116 but has hidden discounts, and traders' willingness to accept vessels is low, with limited cost support. The short - term arrival volume surge and inventory accumulation on the supply side suppress valuation, and the seasonal decline in demand further weakens the upward momentum of prices. The current price has partly reflected negative expectations. If overseas shipments decrease seasonally or domestic terminal demand improves, the valuation is expected to recover marginally. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range with relatively limited downside space [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. Close previous short positions. Aggressive investors can consider buying a small amount near the previous low. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6]. Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - New Zealand log shipments: From November 17 - 23, 2025, the expected number of New Zealand log vessels arriving at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 vessels compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 30%. The total arrival volume was about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 48%. In October 2025, China's imports of softwood logs from New Zealand were about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of softwood logs from New Zealand were about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80%. In October 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 1.4836 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% and a year - on - year increase of 16.34%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 14.6481 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.35% [13]. Log Inventory - As of November 14, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%. Radiata pine inventory was 2.43 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%. North American log inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 10.00%. Spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 5.00%. - By province, as of November 14, the total inventory at 3 ports in Shandong was 1,954,000 cubic meters, an increase of 39,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. The total inventory at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 836,562 cubic meters, an increase of 39,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. The total inventory at 3 ports in Fujian was 52,923 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,810 cubic meters compared to the previous period [16]. Log Demand - As of November 14, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Shandong was 36,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 12,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.17%. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 24,400 cubic meters, an increase of 16,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 7.02%. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Fujian was 2,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 11,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 28.95%. - As of November 18, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.11%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points. Although the capital availability rate has stopped declining slightly and the construction progress of some projects in East China has accelerated slightly, the number of new projects is still small [22]. Log Prices - Radiata pine and spruce/fir prices: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter (6.25%). In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter (1.32%) and a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter (6.25%). In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1,180 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter (9.26%) [29]. - Downstream timber prices: For radiata pine timber, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was also 1,260 yuan per cubic meter. For spruce/white pine timber, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,830 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1,680 yuan per cubic meter [33]. Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine FOB price: In November 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs was $116 per JAS cubic meter, an increase of $1 per cubic meter compared to last month. - Spruce FOB price: In November 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs was 126 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 1 euro per cubic meter compared to last month. In November, New Zealand log suppliers' quotes were firm, but domestic traders' willingness to accept vessels was low. There were many quote adjustments within the month, and some suppliers' offer prices had hidden discounts. It is expected that the FOB price of New Zealand radiata pine may be adjusted downward in December [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the arrival of logs at ports will remain at a low level, and the supply side has certain support. The demand is in the off - season, and the port outbound is still weak. The subsequent demand will continue to be weak due to weather reasons. Although the terminal real - estate start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, the short - term demand decline space is limited. The short - term reduction in arrivals may lead to continuous inventory reduction, but the overall inventory reduction amplitude may be limited due to weak downstream demand. The prices of logs and wood squares are relatively stable, but the profit of logs and wood squares is expected to show a weak trend [7][9][11][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Log Overview Supply End - In the week of July 18, 2025, the number of arriving ships was 5, a decrease of 5 compared with the previous week; the arrival volume was 17.7 million cubic meters, a decrease of 16.65 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was 217.68, a decrease of 1.39 compared with the previous month, and a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The import volume of radiata pine was 160.68, a decrease of 8.32 compared with the previous month, and a year - on - year decrease of 6%. From the seasonal perspective of New Zealand's shipments, June and July are the off - seasons of the year, and the increase in foreign quotes restrains the import willingness of domestic traders to a certain extent, and the arrivals are expected to decrease gradually [7]. Demand and Inventory End - The weekly national shipment volume was 43.68, a month - on - month increase of 2.5. The apparent demand was 8.95, a month - on - month decrease of 26.7. The total inventory was 385, a month - on - month increase of 8.8. The off - season continues, the port outbound is still weak, and the subsequent demand will continue to be weak due to weather reasons. The short - term reduction in arrivals may lead to continuous inventory reduction, but the overall inventory reduction amplitude may be limited due to weak downstream demand [9]. Price and Spread - The foreign quotes of radiata pine and spruce remained unchanged. The spot prices of radiata pine and spruce were stable, and the wood square prices were also stable. The apparent data shows that the demand is okay, the spot valuation is low, and the expectation of the peak season in September drives the increase of the futures price. After the increase, the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, providing a certain hedging space [11][13]. Cost and Profit - The import cost of radiata pine and spruce increased slightly, and the import profit decreased. The profit of radiata pine and spruce wood squares was stable but at a loss. Affected by the weak demand of downstream and terminals, the profit of logs and wood squares is expected to show a weak trend [16]. Strategy Recommendation - For the industrial chain, the spot is stable, the finished products are adjusted downwards, the macro - economic meeting is held, and the commodity sentiment has improved. But the fundamental feeling is still weak, and there is a long - short game in the futures market. For the futures market, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to the change of basis. Enterprises with spot goods that meet the delivery standards can consider selling hedging when the spot trading is weak, or choose delivery after cost accounting. For option strategies, selling out - of - the - money call options or buying out - of - the - money put options can be considered for risk hedging or return enhancement, and strict risk management is required [18]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet - The log balance sheet shows the changes in supply, demand, and inventory from January 3, 2025, to July 18, 2025. The supply includes the number and weight of arriving logs, and the demand includes the average daily shipment volume and apparent demand. The inventory is divided by region and tree species, and the supply - demand difference is also calculated [20]. Part 3: Log Supply and Demand Analysis Supply End - It includes the shipment volume of New Zealand logs, log imports, and imports by tree species, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [26][28][31]. Demand End - It includes the average daily shipment volume of logs and the real - estate situation, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [35][38]. Downstream Analysis - It includes the price and profit analysis of wood squares and the analysis of downstream substitutes (aluminum alloy), but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [43][49][55]. Inventory End - It includes the summary of inventory, inventory by tree species, and inventory by region, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [59][61][67]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - It focuses on the import cost and profit of logs, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [73]. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis Log Foreign Quotes - The foreign quotes of radiata pine and spruce are involved, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [79]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices - The price seasonality graphs of radiata pine and spruce are provided, showing the price changes in 2024 and 2025 [82]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads - The spread seasonality of radiata pine and spruce is involved, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [85]. Basis between Radiata Pine and LG - The basis between radiata pine and LG is analyzed, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [91]. Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread of LG Main Contracts - The seasonal chart of LG main contracts shows the price changes in 2024 and 2025, and the inter - month spread is also involved, but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given content [97][98].