Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is that it is expected to run strongly [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the log market remain stable, and log futures are expected to run strongly due to low valuation, with the lowest delivery cost of log futures being 810 - 820 yuan/m³, while the supply shows a slight increase and the demand is neutral, and the inventory situation is also neutral [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In September 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and India were 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%; the number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%, which has a bearish impact on the market [3][27] - **Demand**: From October 6th to 12th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a 12.65% decrease from the previous week. Due to the Sino - US trade war, there is an expected increase in the external market quotation of logs, and the demand is neutral [3] - **Inventory**: As of October 10th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.55%, and the inventory situation is neutral [3][36] - **Valuation**: The current lowest delivery cost of log futures is 810 - 820 yuan/m³, with a low valuation, which is bullish for the market [3] - **Investment View**: The fundamentals remain stable, and log futures are expected to run strongly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For arbitrage, a 11 - 1 positive spread is recommended, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Log futures fluctuated significantly. After a sharp decline, the futures price was lower than the lowest delivery cost, and the spot price was firm with the inventory not reaching the inflection point, so it is expected to run strongly. The log futures contract's total open interest was 21,452 lots as of October 17th, a 9.2% increase from the previous week, and the open interest of the main contract 2601 was 14,247 lots, an 89.5% increase from the previous week [6][12] - **Spot Market**: As of October 17th, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu increased to varying degrees. In Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/760/880 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 760/800/980 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 720/780/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 760/800/860 yuan/m³ [16] Part Three: Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were 1.725 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.7%. Imports from New Zealand were 1.306 million cubic meters, with the year - on - year change turning from an increase to a decrease, a 6.5% decline, and a month - on - month decrease of 10.4%. Radiata pine imports were 1.297 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.2% [23] - **New Zealand's Log Shipment and Delivery**: In September 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and India were 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%, and the number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% [3][27] - **Domestic Log Inventory**: As of October 10th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.55%. Radiata pine inventory was 2.46 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.68%; North American timber inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week; spruce/fir inventory was 190,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. In terms of provinces, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1,892,000 cubic meters, a 6.65% increase from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory at Jiangsu ports was 880,900 cubic meters, a 3.89% increase from the previous week [36] - **Domestic Log Outbound Volume**: From October 6th to 12th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a 12.65% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,400 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 17,900 cubic meters, a 31.94% decrease from the previous week [38] - **Wooden Square Data**: As of October 17th, the wooden square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were both 1270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week, and that in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/m³, also unchanged from the previous week [41]