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原周报(LG):原木期现分化,关注“强预期”落地情况-20260323
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 08:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Some spot prices of logs in Shandong and Taicang decreased this week. The delivery cost of the cheapest deliverable log in Shandong for the 05 contract is around 815 yuan/m³, and the current futures price above 820 yuan/m³ has priced in the expected increase in April and May to some extent. If the war between the US and Iran continues to drive up oil prices, the "strong expectation" logic will be gradually confirmed. The log futures showed a significant increase in positions and broke through the previous high this week, and the market tends to the "strong expectation" logic. Considering the above, one can consider going long with strict stop - loss [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Some spot prices of logs in Shandong and Taicang decreased. The current futures price has priced in the expected increase in April and May. If the US - Iran war drives up oil prices, the "strong expectation" logic will be confirmed. The futures market is more inclined to the "strong expectation" logic and it's hard to falsify it before the 05 contract delivery. It's advisable to consider going long with strict stop - loss [3]. - Log futures showed significant increase in positions. As of March 20, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 17,765 lots, a 39.2% increase from last week; the position of the main contract was 12,485 lots, a 52% week - on - week increase [11]. - Some specifications of log spot prices decreased. As of March 19, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large A radiata pine were 700/770/860 yuan/m³; 5.9 - meter small/medium/large A were 730/800/950 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, 3.9 - meter small/medium/large A were 730/780/810 yuan/m³; 5.9 - meter small/medium/large A were 760/800/870 yuan/m³ [15]. 3.2 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Log Import Volume - In December 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a 20.82% month - on - month decrease and a 22.45% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, the total import volume was about 23.9187 million cubic meters, an 8.41% year - on - year decrease. - In December 2025, China imported about 1.3048 million cubic meters of coniferous logs from New Zealand, a 27.01% month - on - month decrease and a 13.02% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, the total import volume from New Zealand was about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a 1.51% year - on - year increase [21]. 3.2.2 New Zealand Log Shipment and Dispatch Volume - From March 7 - 13, 2026, 12 ships with 450,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a 1 - ship and 10,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week. Among them, 9 ships with 340,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a 0 - ship and 10,000 - cubic - meter decrease. - In the past four weeks, 49 ships with 1.87 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a 21 - ship and 820,000 - cubic - meter increase compared with the same period last month. Among them, 36 ships with 1.35 million cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a 13 - ship and 500,000 - cubic - meter increase compared with the same period last month [25]. 3.2.3 Trade Profit - As of March 9, 2026, the CFR quotation range of New Zealand radiata pine logs in March was 117 - 122 US dollars/JAS cubic meters, a 5 - dollar increase from last month, and the quotation had relatively good transaction conditions [32]. 3.2.4 Domestic Log Inventory - As of March 6, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.13 million cubic meters, a 4.68% week - on - week increase; radiata pine inventory was 2.51 million cubic meters, a 3.72% week - on - week increase; North American timber inventory was 260,000 cubic meters, an 8.33% week - on - week increase; spruce/fir inventory was 160,000 cubic meters, a 10,000 - cubic - meter increase from last week. The total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1,955,000 cubic meters, a 1.82% increase from last week; in Jiangsu ports, it was 910,800 cubic meters, a 12.25% increase from last week [35]. 3.2.5 Domestic Port Log Out - bound Volume - From March 2 - 8, the average daily out - bound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 33,300 cubic meters, a 455% increase from last week. Among them, the average daily out - bound volume in Shandong ports was 23,800 cubic meters, a 349.06% increase from last week; in Jiangsu ports, it was 7,000 cubic meters [38]. 3.2.6 Wood Square Price and Processing Profit - As of March 15, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,240 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week; in Jiangsu, it was 1,310 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 44.4 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week; in Jiangsu, it was - 5 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week [41]. 3.2.7 Downstream Situation - As of March 13, 2025, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.9, a 0.5% month - on - month decrease; the Baltic Dry Index was 2,028, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease [45].
【原木周报(LG)】:原现货价格回落,关注外盘报价上涨能否落地-20260316
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 11:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of some specifications of logs in Taicang area have declined. The main reasons are the weak demand in the spot market and the increase in the arrival volume. There is a possibility that the post - holiday spot price increase expectation will be falsified. However, due to the long - term trend of the US - Iran war, there is a strong upward expectation and certainty for the overseas log quotations. The existing overseas quotations have been raised to 119 - 122 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 805 - 825 yuan/m³ in spot size and 870 - 890 yuan/m³ in futures size. Although this quotation has been accepted by domestic traders, whether the significantly increased overseas quotations can be smoothly transmitted to the domestic market remains to be observed. The current price of the optimal delivery product 5.9 small A in Shandong area is 740 yuan/m³, equivalent to 800 yuan/m³ on the futures market, and the futures price has a certain discount. But the main contract LG2605 is still far from the delivery month, and the overall trading logic is dominated by expectations. In the past three years, the spot price of logs has a high probability of falling from March to May. In summary, the log futures price is affected by the "upward expectation of overseas quotations" and the "sluggish spot market", and there is no consistent trading theme. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 790 - 810. It is recommended to wait and see in terms of operation. The focus in the future should be on the implementation of overseas quotations and the spot price [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Some specifications of log prices in Taicang area have fallen, mainly due to weak spot market demand and increased arrival volume. The post - holiday price increase expectation may be false. Overseas log quotations have a strong upward expectation, but whether they can be transmitted to the domestic market is uncertain. The futures price has a discount, and the main contract is far from the delivery month. The trading logic is expectation - dominated. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the 790 - 810 range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. Future focus should be on overseas quotation implementation and spot price [5]. - Log main data: The closing price of the main contract is 792.5, a decrease of 0.94% from the previous period; the total position is 12765, a decrease of 9.53%; the position of the main contract is 8209, a decrease of 11.72%. The total inventory is 313.3, an increase of 4.87%; Shandong inventory is 195.5, an increase of 1.82%; Jiangsu inventory is 91.1, an increase of 12.25%. The total outbound volume is 33, an increase of 455%; Shandong outbound volume is 24, an increase of 349.06%; Jiangsu outbound volume is 7. New Zealand's weekly shipping volume is 90, a decrease of 10%; weekly shipping volume is 350, a decrease of 7.89%; export profit is - 34, a decrease of 4.78. The New Zealand CFR quotation is 121, an increase of 7.08%; the spruce CFR quotation is 125, unchanged. The trader's import profit is - 46.5, a decrease of 13.29%; the processing profit is - 44.6, unchanged [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Log futures position: As of March 13, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts is 12765 lots, a decrease of 9.5% from the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract is 8209 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 11.7% [12]. - Spot price: As of March 13, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine are 710/770/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A are 740/800/950 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine are 730/780/810 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A are 780/810/870 yuan/m³ [16]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Log import volume: In December 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.45%. In 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 23.9187 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41%. In December 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 1.3048 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 27.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.02%. In 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.51% [22]. - New Zealand log shipping and shipping volume: From March 7 - 13, 2026, a total of 12 ships with 450,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, an increase of 1 ship and 10,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. Among them, 9 ships with 340,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. In the past four weeks, a total of 49 ships with 1.87 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, an increase of 21 ships and 820,000 cubic meters compared with the same period last month. Among them, a total of 36 ships with 1.35 million cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 13 ships and 500,000 cubic meters compared with the same period last month [28]. - Trade profit: As of March 9, 2026, the overseas (CFR) quotation range of New Zealand radiata pine logs in March is 117 - 122 US dollars/JAS square, an increase of 5 US dollars/JAS square compared with last month, and the transaction of this quotation is relatively good [35]. - Domestic log inventory: As of March 6, the total domestic coniferous log inventory is 3.13 million cubic meters, an increase of 140,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 4.68%; the radiata pine inventory is 2.51 million cubic meters, an increase of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 3.72%; the North American timber inventory is 260,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 8.33%; the spruce/fir inventory is 160,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. Among them, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports is 1,955,000 cubic meters, an increase of 1.82% from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports is 910,800 cubic meters, an increase of 12.25% from the previous week [40]. - Domestic port log outbound volume: From March 2 - 8, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China is 33,300 cubic meters, an increase of 455% from the previous week; among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in Shandong ports is 23,800 cubic meters, an increase of 349.06% from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in Jiangsu ports is 7,000 cubic meters [42]. - Wood square price and processing profit: As of March 15, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong is 1240 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the wood square price in Jiangsu is 1310 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the processing profit in Shandong is - 44.4 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the processing profit in Jiangsu is - 5 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [45]. - Downstream: As of March 13, 2025, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate is 6.9, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; the Baltic Dry Index is 2028, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [49].
海运费推动外盘报价上涨,原木期货偏强看待
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 06:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the spot price of logs continued to rise. The current quotation of the optimal deliverable 5.9 - meter small A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 740 yuan/m³, equivalent to a futures price of 800 yuan/m³, with a neutral valuation. The war between the US and Iran last week led to significant increases in chemicals and shipping, prompting New Zealand suppliers to raise their quotes to 119 - 122 US dollars/JASm³. Overall, the log futures price is expected to remain strong this week [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - The spot price of logs continued to rise after the Spring Festival. The 5.9 - meter small A radiata pine logs in Shandong are priced at 740 yuan/m³, equivalent to 800 yuan/m³ in the futures market, with a neutral valuation. The war between the US and Iran led to an increase in shipping and chemical prices, causing New Zealand suppliers to raise quotes, but it remains to be seen if domestic traders will accept them. The log futures price is expected to be strong this week [4]. - The main data shows an increase in futures prices, total inventory, and total positions, while the total outbound volume and New Zealand's weekly shipping volume decreased. The export profit, traders' import profit, and processing profit also declined [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Log futures positions increased slightly. As of March 6, 2025, the total positions of log futures contracts were 11,535 lots, a 3.24% increase from the previous week, and the main contract positions were 7,605 lots, a 142% week - on - week increase [9]. - Log spot prices continued to rise. As of March 6, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine were 710/770/860 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A were 740/800/950 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine were 730/790/810 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A were 780/820/840 yuan/m³ [15]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Log Imports - In December 2025, China's total imports of coniferous logs were about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a 20.82% month - on - month decrease and a 22.45% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, the total imports were about 23.9187 million cubic meters, an 8.41% year - on - year decrease. From New Zealand, the imports in December 2025 were about 1.3048 million cubic meters, a 27.01% month - on - month decrease and a 13.02% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, the total imports from New Zealand were about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a 1.51% year - on - year increase [21]. - In February 2026, 66 coniferous log ships arrived at 13 Chinese ports, a 10.81% month - on - month decrease, and the total arrival volume was about 1.2497 million cubic meters, a 25.08% month - on - month decrease. Among them, 28 were New Zealand logs, with an arrival volume of about 0.983 million cubic meters, accounting for 79%, a 26.23% month - on - month decrease. From February 28 to March 6, 2026, a total of 11 ships with 440,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 New Zealand ports, a decrease of 3 ships and 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week. Among them, 9 ships with 350,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 1 ship and 30,000 cubic meters from the previous week [27]. 3.3.2 Trade Profits - As of March 2025, the CFR quote for radiata pine was 117 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 790 yuan/m³ in RMB, with an import profit of 10 yuan/m³. Recently, due to the increase in shipping costs, some overseas quotes have been raised to 119 - 122 US dollars/JASm³, but this price has not been accepted by domestic traders [32]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of February 27, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a 22.04% week - on - week increase. The radiata pine inventory was 2.42 million cubic meters, a 16.91% week - on - week increase. The North American log inventory was 240,000 cubic meters, a 140.00% week - on - week increase. The spruce/fir inventory was 150,000 cubic meters, an increase of 30,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1.92 million cubic meters, a 9.34% increase from the previous week, and at Jiangsu ports was 811,428 cubic meters, a 78.72% increase from the previous week [37]. 3.3.4 Outbound Volume - From February 23 to March 1, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 6,000 cubic meters, a 36.84% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 5,300 cubic meters, a 6.00% increase from the previous week, and at Jiangsu ports was 0 cubic meters, a 100.00% decrease from the previous week [41]. 3.3.5 Downstream - As of March 6, 2025, the price of wood squares in Shandong was 1,240 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week, and in Jiangsu was 1,310 yuan/m³, a 20 - yuan increase from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 44.4 yuan/m³, a 30 - yuan decrease from the previous week, and in Jiangsu was - 5 yuan/m³, a 5 - yuan increase from the previous week [44]. - As of March 6, 2025, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.9, a 0.7% month - on - month decrease, and the Baltic Dry Index was 2,233, a 14.2% month - on - month increase [48].
原木周报(LG):原木期货在交割月前出现下跌-20251215
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 06:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The overall view of the log market is bearish. The spot price of logs has been continuously declining, the overseas market price has also significantly dropped, and the near - month contracts have declined due to delivery pressure before the delivery month. The influencing factors are as follows: the supply is neutral, the demand is bearish, the inventory is neutral, and the valuation is neutral [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November 2025, the number of New Zealand log departure vessels was about 48, a month - on - month decrease of 6. The total shipment was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease compared to 2.013 million cubic meters in October [4]. - **Demand**: From December 1st to December 7th, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 66,600 cubic meters, an 8.65% increase from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 5th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.03% [4]. - **Valuation**: Currently, the log price is lower than the delivery cost, with a low valuation [4]. - **Investment View**: The overall view is bearish. The trading strategy for both unilateral and arbitrage is not provided, and attention should be paid to domestic demand [4]. - **Main Data Summary**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 2.16% to 749; the total position increased by 7.36% to 25,666; the position of the main contract decreased by 4.96% to 14,519; the total inventory decreased by 3.13% to 287,700 cubic meters; the Shandong inventory increased by 0.45% to 199,500 cubic meters; the Jiangsu inventory decreased by 12.77% to 74,200 cubic meters; the total outbound volume increased by 8.65%; the New Zealand weekly shipment decreased by 30% [6]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: Log futures declined this week. The reasons are the significant decline in spot prices during the off - season, which has fallen below the annual lowest level, and the approaching delivery month of the 01 contract, which has a certain bearish impact due to delivery pressure [8]. - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the total open interest of log futures contracts was 25,666 lots, a 7.35% increase from the previous week; the open interest of the main log futures contract was 14,519 lots, a 4.96% decrease from the previous week [11]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 12, 2025, the prices of Shandong radiata pine (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 680/740/850 yuan/m³; (5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 710/770/940 yuan/m³. The prices of Jiangsu radiata pine (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 670/730/800 yuan/m³; (5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 720/760/840 yuan/m³ [14]. 3.3 Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January to October 2025, the total import volume was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04%. In October 2025, China's import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, the total import volume from New Zealand was about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [19]. - **Shipment Volume**: In November 2025, the number of New Zealand log departure vessels was about 48, a month - on - month decrease of 6, and the total shipment was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease compared to October. From November 29 to December 5, 2025, there were 7 vessels departing from New Zealand ports, with a total shipment of 260,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 8 vessels and 336,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 7 vessels directly shipped 260,000 cubic meters to China, a decrease of 3 vessels and 108,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [25]. - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of December 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine was between 112 - 119 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 780 - 825 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 45 yuan/m³. In November 2025, the AWG price in New Zealand port warehouses was 126 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 111 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 8.8 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [28]. - **Inventory**: As of December 5th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a 3.03% decrease from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong ports increased by 0.45% to 1.995 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 12.77% to 742,260 cubic meters [31]. - **Outbound Volume**: From December 1st to December 7th, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 66,600 cubic meters, an 8.65% increase from the previous week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in Shandong ports was 33,900 cubic meters, an 11.51% increase from the previous week; the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in Jiangsu ports was 27,100 cubic meters, a 3.44% increase from the previous week [35]. - **Timber Price and Processing Profit**: As of December 12, 2025, the timber price in Shandong was 1,220 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/m³; the timber price in Jiangsu was 1,240 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/m³. The processing profit in Shandong was - 18.5 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 14.5 yuan/m³; the processing profit in Jiangsu was 17 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/m³ [37].
原木周报(LG):盘面估值偏低,原木预计偏强运行-20251020
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 06:53
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is that it is expected to run strongly [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the log market remain stable, and log futures are expected to run strongly due to low valuation, with the lowest delivery cost of log futures being 810 - 820 yuan/m³, while the supply shows a slight increase and the demand is neutral, and the inventory situation is also neutral [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In September 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and India were 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%; the number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%, which has a bearish impact on the market [3][27] - **Demand**: From October 6th to 12th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a 12.65% decrease from the previous week. Due to the Sino - US trade war, there is an expected increase in the external market quotation of logs, and the demand is neutral [3] - **Inventory**: As of October 10th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.55%, and the inventory situation is neutral [3][36] - **Valuation**: The current lowest delivery cost of log futures is 810 - 820 yuan/m³, with a low valuation, which is bullish for the market [3] - **Investment View**: The fundamentals remain stable, and log futures are expected to run strongly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For arbitrage, a 11 - 1 positive spread is recommended, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Log futures fluctuated significantly. After a sharp decline, the futures price was lower than the lowest delivery cost, and the spot price was firm with the inventory not reaching the inflection point, so it is expected to run strongly. The log futures contract's total open interest was 21,452 lots as of October 17th, a 9.2% increase from the previous week, and the open interest of the main contract 2601 was 14,247 lots, an 89.5% increase from the previous week [6][12] - **Spot Market**: As of October 17th, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu increased to varying degrees. In Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/760/880 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 760/800/980 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 720/780/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 760/800/860 yuan/m³ [16] Part Three: Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were 1.725 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.7%. Imports from New Zealand were 1.306 million cubic meters, with the year - on - year change turning from an increase to a decrease, a 6.5% decline, and a month - on - month decrease of 10.4%. Radiata pine imports were 1.297 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.2% [23] - **New Zealand's Log Shipment and Delivery**: In September 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and India were 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%, and the number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% [3][27] - **Domestic Log Inventory**: As of October 10th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.55%. Radiata pine inventory was 2.46 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.68%; North American timber inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week; spruce/fir inventory was 190,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. In terms of provinces, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1,892,000 cubic meters, a 6.65% increase from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory at Jiangsu ports was 880,900 cubic meters, a 3.89% increase from the previous week [36] - **Domestic Log Outbound Volume**: From October 6th to 12th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a 12.65% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,400 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 17,900 cubic meters, a 31.94% decrease from the previous week [38] - **Wooden Square Data**: As of October 17th, the wooden square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were both 1270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week, and that in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/m³, also unchanged from the previous week [41]