Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current downstream processing plants purchase based on inventory needs. With the recent continuous decline in log spot prices, the short - term downstream delivery has improved. It is expected that the overall spot prices will stabilize in the future, but the terminal market remains sluggish. The sustainability of price support and trading volume need to be considered. In the medium - to - long - term, the log spot market still faces challenges under the dual pressure of weakening real - estate demand and increasing port inventories [6]. - The exchange will organize multiple log simulation deliveries in the future. Attention should be paid to the size difference between the national standard size and the market size, which will greatly affect log valuation [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Price: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan/cubic meter, with a week - on - week flat. The price of 4 - meter medium - A log in Taicang is 780 yuan/cubic meter, also with a week - on - week flat. The expected log arrival volume is 18.92 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 70%. The total inventory of coniferous logs this period is 3.43 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28%. From January to May 2022, the national new housing construction area was 520 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 380 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 31.9%. The average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 61,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10.35%. The CFR main price of radiata pine this month is 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month decrease of 4% [6]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: The overall spot market is stable with a weakening trend. It is recommended to wait and see. In the short term, the futures have fallen sharply, the basis is inverted, and there is a risk of delivery valuation repair due to the delivery size difference. Aggressive investors can lay out long positions based on the previous low. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Log Supply - New Zealand log expected shipment volume: In March 2025, the expected shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China, Japan, South Korea, and India is 2.0025 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 24.17%. The expected number of ships is 66, a month - on - month increase of 13.79%. From May 12th to May 18th, 2025, in the 20th week, 18 ports are expected to have 7 coniferous log ships arriving, a week - on - week decrease of 63%. The total arrival volume is about 189,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 70% [15]. 3.2.2 Log Inventory - The total domestic log inventory is 3.43 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters (- 2.28%) compared with the previous period. The inventory of coniferous logs is decreasing at an accelerated pace, but there are significant differences among different species. Radiata pine inventory is 2.7 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters (+ 1.50%); North American log inventory is 330,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters (- 17.50%); Spruce/fir inventory is 200,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters (- 13.04%). Northern ports are mainly reducing inventory, while some southern ports are increasing inventory [19]. 3.2.3 Log Demand - As of May 9th, the average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 ports is 61,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 10.35% compared with the previous period. The areas with a decrease in shipment volume include Shandong, Jiangsu, and Tianjin - Hebei, while the areas with an increase include Fujian and Guangdong. As of May 13th, the sample construction site fund availability rate is 59.1%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. The non - real - estate project fund availability rate is 60.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points, while the real - estate project fund availability rate is 51.33%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 percentage points [25]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Prices - Shandong: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week is 760 yuan/cubic meter, flat compared with last week and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32%. - Jiangsu: The price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week is 780 yuan/cubic meter, flat compared with last week and a year - on - year decrease of 3.70%. - Shandong: The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week is 1110 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 4.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.77% [34]. 3.3.2 Downstream Timber Prices - Radiata pine timber: The spot price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber (including tax and transportation) remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1270 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1280 yuan/cubic meter. - Spruce/white pine timber: The spot price of 3000*40*90 white pine timber (including tax and transportation) showed a strong trend this week. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1700 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1670 yuan/cubic meter [39]. 3.3.3 Import Log Costs - In May 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs is 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 4 US dollars/cubic meter compared with last month. The CFR price of 11.8 - meter 20+ spruce logs is 123 euros/JAS cubic meter, an increase of 3 euros/cubic meter compared with last month. The New Zealand external price continues to decline, and the central level of log import costs continues to move down [44].