1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The South American soybean harvest is expected to be bountiful, so there is no basis for a bull market. However, demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. Overall, the market is expected to be slightly bullish in a range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Focus - The situation of mutual visits between Chinese and US leaders: Trump's visit to China has been postponed, but if the Middle - East situation eases, another visit may be arranged [2] - The transmission of rising crude oil prices to soybean planting: It directly increases the costs of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel. A 30% price increase in these three items would raise US soybean costs by about 70 cents and Brazilian soybean costs by 102 cents. Higher fertilizer prices may also prompt some farmers to switch from corn to soybeans [2] - The release rhythm of South American supply pressure: Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and Argentina's precipitation has improved, increasing the supply pressure of spot soybeans in the future [2] - The biodiesel policy: The regulations of the EPA's biodiesel policy will affect the market [2] 3.2 Overall View and Long - Short Logic of US Soybeans - Overall view: Slightly bullish in a range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [6] - Short - side logic: After China purchases US soybeans, the Trump administration may reduce support for the biodiesel addition policy; Brazil's harvest progress is accelerating, and the shipping speed has basically returned to normal, increasing global spot pressure; Argentina's weather has improved, which may repair the previously damaged yield [7] - Long - side logic: If Trump visits China, it is expected that an additional 8 million tons of soybeans will be purchased in the current crop year; Argentina's early drought may lead to a reduction in yield; Rising crude oil prices support costs [10] 3.3 Spot and Futures Market Prices - As of March 20, 2026, the price of the US soybean futures continuous contract fell 64 cents per bushel to 1161.25 cents per bushel; the US soybean meal futures continuous contract rose $5.3 per short ton to $328 per short ton; the US soybean oil futures continuous contract fell 1.93 cents per pound to 65.51 cents per pound [9] - As of March 19, 2026, the spot soybean purchase price in Illinois decreased by 56.5 cents per bushel to 1163 cents per bushel compared to the previous week; the soybean quotation at the US Gulf port decreased by 63.25 cents per bushel to 1232 cents per bushel compared to the previous week [9] - As of March 19, 2026, the spot price of soybeans in the inland region of Mato Grosso, Brazil, decreased by 1.71 reais per bag to 100.75 reais per bag compared to the previous week; the spot price at the Paranagua port decreased by 1.49 reais per bag to 129.38 reais per bag compared to the previous week [11] - As of March 18, 2026, the FOB price of Argentine soybeans for May shipment decreased by $22 per ton to $412 per ton; the price for June shipment decreased by $26 per ton to $414 per ton [11] 3.4 Main Producing Area Weather Conditions - Brazil: In the next week, precipitation will be mainly concentrated in the northern and western regions, with slightly less precipitation in the central and southern regions. In the next two weeks, precipitation will still be concentrated in the north and west. Overall, the precipitation in the next two weeks is beneficial for Brazilian soybeans, as less precipitation in the central region is conducive to harvesting and transportation, and the return of precipitation in the south is beneficial for repairing the previously damaged yield [14] - Argentina: Precipitation will be good in the next two weeks, especially in the Buenos Aires and Cordoba production areas, which is beneficial for soybean growth [15] 3.5 US Soybean Demand - As of the week of March 13, 2026, the US soybean export inspection and quarantine volume was 906,500 tons, down from 995,300 tons in the previous week; the net sales in the current crop year were 298,200 tons, down from 456,700 tons in the previous week; the net sales in the next crop year were 6,600 tons, down from 9,500 tons in the previous week; the shipment to China was 545,800 tons, up from 411,400 tons in the previous week. Of the 12 million tons of US soybeans purchased by China, 7.85 million tons have been shipped, and 4.15 million tons remain unshipped [27] - The domestic soybean crushing volume in the US in February was 208.78 million bushels, the highest level for the same period in history, indicating strong domestic demand [28] 3.6 CFTC Positions and Planting Costs - As of March 17, 2026, the net long positions of funds in soybean futures and options were 213,700 contracts, a decrease of 17,100 contracts from the previous week; the net long positions in soybean oil futures and options were 118,400 contracts, an increase of 18,600 contracts from the previous week; the net long positions in soybean meal futures and options were 83,800 contracts, a decrease of 3,200 contracts from the previous week. The net long positions in soybeans decreased significantly [33] - In terms of planting costs, the cost in the US is still high, and the cost in Brazil is lower than that in the US but has also increased compared to the previous year. Before the rise in crude oil prices, the estimated planting cost in the US was 1200 - 1250 cents per bushel, and in Brazil, it was 950 - 1000 cents per bushel. With the current energy cost, it is expected to increase by 5 - 10% on this basis [34]