现货黄金： 12月8日，消息面：本周焦点无疑锁定在美联储的利率决议上。市场普遍预期美联储将实施25个基点的 降息，这将是连续第三次放松货币政策，但投资者对未来宽松路径的分歧日益加剧。结合美国最新经济 数据、通胀表现以及多位美联储官员的鸽派表态，金价虽获支撑却遇阻力，美债收益率大涨反映出鹰派 降息预期，而美元则在区间内震荡。市场越来越相信美联储即将采取降息措施，这导致美元略有走弱， 从而利好黄金。然而，黄金也面临强阻力位压制，同时美债收益率持续走高并刷新逾两周高位，进一步 拖累了金价。此外，随着买家等待现货价格回调，印度和中国等主要市场的实物黄金需求在本周有所减 弱，这也加剧了金价的下行压力。 多单：激进4164/57区间进场，稳健等4137/44区间再做；止损：各12美元，目标20/40美金！ WTI原油： 消息面：油价在周一亚洲早盘维持平稳，布伦特原油徘徊在每桶64美元下方，西德克萨斯中间基原油稳 定在60美元附近。市场对印度从俄罗斯持续吸收原油的关注度升高，尤其是在能源紧缩背景下，该因素 有效支撑了短线价格。供应紧缩因素再次强化。近期乌克兰针对俄罗斯能源设施的行动再度加剧供应波 动，其中黑海地区的CPC终 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices oscillated and rebounded from a low level last week. The market expects prices to continue to stabilize and rise due to the "dovish" stance of the Fed Chairman's speech and supply - side disruptions [5][7] - The report suggests short - term long - biased operations in the range of 485 - 515 and holding long - term long positions [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review - Last week, NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $63.77 per barrel, up 2.38% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $67.26 per barrel, up 2.77% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 492.9 yuan per barrel, up 1.36% for the week [5] - The net long positions of Brent crude oil futures decreased by 23,852 contracts to 182,695 contracts in the week of August 19. The net long positions of WTI crude oil increased by 3,467 contracts to 120,209 contracts [5] - Trump's series of meetings and the geopolitical situation affected the early - week weakness of oil prices, while sanctions on Iran, the tendency to sanction Russia, and better - than - expected inventory drawdowns drove prices up in the latter half of the week [5] - Trump is promoting a tri - lateral summit between Russia, Ukraine, and the US. Although the atmosphere has improved, risks remain, and there may be pressure on Kiev for territorial concessions [5] - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium was interpreted as "dovish", increasing the market's bet on a Fed rate cut in September to nearly 90% [6] - Ukrainian military attacked the Unecha pumping station of the "Friendship" oil pipeline, causing the interruption of crude oil transportation to Hungary [6] - The US imposed sanctions on Antonios Margaritis and related companies, and Russian refinery attacks are expected to reduce high - sulfur fuel oil supply by 70,000 barrels per day from August to September [6] 3.2 Related Information - Market participants increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September to nearly 90% after Powell's speech [6] - Ukrainian military's drone attack on the Unecha pumping station of the "Friendship" oil pipeline led to the interruption of crude oil transportation to Hungary [6] - The US sanctions and Russian refinery attacks tightened the high - sulfur fuel oil supply [6] 3.3 Outlook - Crude oil prices are expected to continue to stabilize and rise due to the "dovish" signal from the Fed and supply - side disruptions [7] - Short - term long - biased operations in the range of 485 - 515 and holding long - term long positions are recommended [8] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Weekly Prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties showed different changes. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.02 to 67.91 dollars, with a change rate of 0.03% [11] - **Cushing Inventory**: As of August 15, the Cushing inventory was 23.47 million barrels, an increase of 419,000 barrels [12] - **EIA Inventory**: As of August 15, the EIA inventory was 420.684 million barrels, a decrease of 6.014 million barrels [13] 3.5持仓数据（原文英文表述应为Position Data） - **CFTC Fund Net Long Positions**: As of August 19, the net long positions of WTI crude oil were 120,209 contracts, an increase of 3,467 contracts [20] - **ICE Fund Net Long Positions**: As of August 19, the net long positions of ICE crude oil were 182,695 contracts, a decrease of 23,852 contracts [21]