Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global crude oil supply growth in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to a total increase of 2.1 million barrels per day, due to OPEC+'s recent production increase decisions [1] - The IEA has lowered its demand expectations, noting a significant slowdown in oil consumption in recent months, but indicated that rising refinery processing volumes are tightening the market to meet summer travel and power generation demands [1] - The IEA expressed concerns over Russia's ability to maintain its current production capacity, as Russian crude oil and product exports have been at their lowest levels in five years, with June exports remaining weak [1][2] Group 2 - Russia's oil export data has become challenging to assess due to confidentiality measures implemented after the Ukraine conflict, leading market observers to rely on shipping data and refinery operation estimates [2] - Despite high refinery operation levels in June, Russia's refined oil exports fell to an eight-month low, partly due to government encouragement for domestic producers to retain gasoline and diesel for upcoming agricultural demands [2] - The IEA has maintained its estimate of Russia's sustainable upstream capacity at 9.8 million barrels per day, while June production was reported at 9.19 million barrels per day, exceeding OPEC+ targets by 140,000 barrels per day [3] Group 3 - Despite a decline in export volumes, Russia's oil export revenue increased by over $800 million month-on-month in June, reaching $13.6 billion, driven by supply concerns from Middle East tensions [3]

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for total crude oil supply in 2025 from 104.9 million barrels per day to 105.1 million barrels per day [1] - The IEA has also increased its forecast for total crude oil supply in 2026 from 106 million barrels per day to 106.4 million barrels per day [1]