Core Insights - OPEC maintains its outlook for the oil market despite a significant increase in daily oil production in September, with global oil demand expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.4 million barrels per day by 2026, consistent with previous forecasts [1][2] Group 1 - In September, OPEC+ daily oil production increased by 630,000 barrels, with the average daily production reaching approximately 43.05 million barrels [1][2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes the oil market is nearing a state of oversupply, as global oil prices have dropped nearly 15% this year [1] - OPEC+ has only agreed to restore 137,000 barrels per day of idle production capacity this month, indicating a slowdown in recovery compared to earlier this year [1] Group 2 - The OECD's oil demand is expected to increase by approximately 130,000 barrels per day this year, primarily driven by the Americas [2] - Non-OECD countries are projected to see an increase in oil demand of about 1.2 million barrels per day [2] - Transportation fuels are expected to be the main driver of oil demand growth this year, with jet fuel/kero demand increasing by 380,000 barrels per day and diesel demand by 300,000 barrels per day [2] Group 3 - Non-OPEC countries' oil production is expected to increase by about 800,000 barrels per day this year and by 600,000 barrels per day by 2026, consistent with previous assessments [2] - Brazil, Canada, the United States, and Argentina are identified as the main countries driving oil production growth [2] - OPEC+'s natural gas liquids and unconventional liquids production is expected to increase by 100,000 barrels per day this year, reaching an average daily production of 8.6 million barrels, with a similar increase projected for 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has repeatedly downgraded its 2025 oil demand forecast, indicating that with OPEC+ increasing production, concerns about oversupply in the oil market may intensify. The rising penetration of electric vehicles is expected to continue putting pressure on oil prices, which may drop to $55 this year [3]. IEA Oil Demand Forecast - The IEA's multiple downgrades of oil demand forecasts suggest a potential oversupply in the market due to OPEC+'s decision to increase production by 54,700 barrels per day in September. This could lead to a supply surplus of up to 600,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, resulting in increased global oil inventories [5][8]. - If OPEC+ exits its next phase of voluntary production cuts (1.66 million barrels per day), U.S. comparable inventories (crude oil, gasoline, and diesel) could rise from 764 million barrels in the week of August 8 to 814 million barrels, an increase of 6.6% [5][6]. OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 54,700 barrels per day in September, marking the end of a voluntary production cut phase that began in 2023. While this increase has helped the organization regain market control, it may lead to oversupply in the fourth quarter [8]. - From July 30 to August 15, WTI oil prices fell by 9.4% to $62.80. Although the market does not rule out the possibility of OPEC+ exiting the next phase of voluntary cuts, it is expected that the organization will not consider this option until the first quarter of 2026, as policymakers may want to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs on global oil demand first [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices continued to decline for the third consecutive trading day due to the weakening market risk - preference sentiment. The current crude oil market lacks clear drivers and will continue to fluctuate. EU - US trade negotiations and OPEC and IEA's demand forecasts are attracting attention [1][9]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continues to face supply pressure. It is advisable to hold the spread short - position for low - sulfur fuel oil [1][3]. - The asphalt market has limited supply increments. The single - sided driver is not obvious in the short term, and it mainly fluctuates narrowly following the cost - end crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes [3]. - The polyester market is affected by the restart of some devices. The terminal is in a bottom - building and oscillating state. The EG price is supported in the short term, and the TA price will fluctuate strongly following the cost [3][4]. - The rubber market has increased in recent days due to raw material support and the macro - environment. However, investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [4]. - The methanol market has an increase in inventory. The current market - priced coal supply has decreased, and the methanol price will fluctuate strongly [4]. - The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a state of strong supply and demand. If the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [6]. - The PVC market has a slight improvement in enterprise operations, but demand has not improved significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to excessive short - term market news [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the WTI August contract closed down $0.99 to $66.21 per barrel, a 1.47% decline; the Brent September contract closed down $0.62 to $68.59 per barrel, a 0.90% decline; SC2509 closed at 503.5 yuan per barrel, down 2.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.55% decline. API data showed that as of the week ending July 18, US crude oil inventories decreased by 577,000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 314,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.228 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 3.48 million barrels. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results, and OPEC and IEA's demand forecasts for 2025 are attracting attention. The market lacks clear drivers, and the oil price will fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.1% at 2,924 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 closed down 0.8% at 3,581 yuan per ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The expected arrival volume from Europe in July will increase by 300,000 - 400,000 tons, and Singapore is expected to receive about 2.1 - 2.2 million tons of Western low - sulfur fuel oil in July, higher than 1.7 - 1.8 million tons in June. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is facing supply pressure from stable Middle - East shipments. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to hold the spread short - position [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 1.42% at 3,657 yuan per ton. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries' production enthusiasm has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans due to negative profits, and some refineries in Shandong will be under maintenance in mid - August. The supply increment is limited. The demand is affected by rainfall, but there is supportive potential after the rainy season. The single - sided driver is not obvious in the short term, and it mainly fluctuates following the cost - end crude oil [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,794 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.29%; the spot offer was at a premium of 3 yuan per ton to the 09 contract. EG2509 closed at 4,447 yuan per ton, up 0.84%, with the basis decreasing by 10 yuan per ton to 60 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4,490 yuan per ton. The PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6,886 yuan per ton, up 0.35%. A 200,000 - ton/year synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol plant in Shanxi has restarted and produced products, and a 300,000 - ton/year plant in Inner Mongolia is restarting and is expected to produce products around the end of July. The terminal is in a bottom - building and oscillating state, and the EG price is supported in the short term, while the TA price will fluctuate strongly following the cost [3][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 165 yuan per ton to 15,060 yuan per ton, the NR main contract rose 105 yuan per ton to 12,855 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 105 yuan per ton to 12,100 yuan per ton. Typhoon Webb has shifted northward, but it is still rainy in Hainan, Yunnan, and Vietnam. The output is blocked, and processing plants have difficulty in collecting latex. The Thai raw material price has increased, and the demand is stable. The price has increased recently, but investors should be cautious when chasing high prices [4]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang spot price was 2,412 yuan per ton on Tuesday, the Inner Mongolia northern - line price was 1,990 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $270 - 274 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $328 - 333 per ton. The Iranian device load has recovered to the high point, and the arrival volume has increased. The downstream profit has recovered, and the subsequent start - up is expected to remain stable, with inventory continuing to increase. The current market - priced coal supply has decreased, and the methanol price will fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 7,050 - 7,150 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 400.04 yuan per ton, the profit of coal - based PP production was 741.07 yuan per ton, and the profit of methanol - based PP production was - 702 yuan per ton. For PE, the price of HDPE film was 7,924 yuan per ton, the price of LDPE film was 9,403 yuan per ton, and the price of LLDPE film was 7,355 yuan per ton. The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a state of strong supply and demand, and if the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the East China PVC market offer rose slightly, with the calcium - carbide - based type 5 material at 5,000 - 5,100 yuan per ton, and the ethylene - based material at 4,950 - 5,300 yuan per ton. The North China PVC market price was adjusted narrowly, and the South China PVC market price was firm. The enterprise operation has recovered, but the demand has not improved significantly. The basis and monthly spread have widened recently, and the arbitrage space has gradually opened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to excessive short - term market news [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Data on the basis of various energy - chemical products on July 23, 2025 are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the latest basis rate quantiles in historical data for multiple products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The US is in urgent trade negotiations with its partners. The crude oil price has declined for three consecutive trading days due to the weakening market risk - preference sentiment. The EU - US trade negotiation deadline is August 1. If no agreement is reached, the US will impose a 30% tariff on most EU export products [9]. - The Canadian Prime Minister has lowered the expectation of reaching a trade agreement with the US in the next 10 days. The US has threatened to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement if no agreement is reached by August 1 [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [24][26][30] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [38][40][43] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts show the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - low sulfur spreads of fuel oil, fuel oil/asphalt ratios, etc. [55][60][61] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc. [64][65][67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, but uncertainties remain in the post - ceasefire situation [1] - The market has factored in OPEC+'s accelerated production increase, and the IEA has raised the forecast of global crude oil surplus in 2025, yet the market is tight during the peak season [1] - Considering the peak consumption season and potential threats to Russian oil supply, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term [1] Summary by Related Content Strategy Analysis - Suggest a strategy of buying on dips [1] - The retaliatory action by Iran and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel have cooled down geopolitical risks, but issues such as the cease - fire implementation, Iran's nuclear materials, and US sanctions on Iran's oil exports need attention [1] - Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak, with US crude oil inventories at a low level, but overall oil product inventories have increased [1] - OPEC+ will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, and is discussing a pause in further production increases from October [1] - OPEC has lowered the global oil demand forecast for the next four years, indicating less optimism about future demand [1] - Trump has postponed the tariff negotiation deadline to August 1st, and attention should be paid to US trade negotiations [1] - The US sanctions on Russia pose a threat to Russian oil supply, and combined with the peak season in the downstream, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2508 fell 0.08% to 516.8 yuan/ton, with a low of 509.1 yuan/ton and a high of 520.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2032 to 12,929 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA has lowered the forecast of US crude oil production in 2025 by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the forecast of global oil inventory increase in the second half of 2025 [3] - IEA has lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 and 2026 [3] - OPEC has maintained the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 and 2026 [3] - US EIA data shows that crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, while gasoline and refined oil inventories increased more than expected in the week ending July 11 [3] Supply - side and Demand - side - OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day, and production in June 2025 increased by 219,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE [4] - US crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 11 [4] - US crude oil product supply decreased, with gasoline and diesel demand decreasing on a weekly basis [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that OPEC forecasts global oil demand to reach 106.36 million barrels per day in 2025 and 107.52 million barrels per day in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The projected increase in global oil demand reflects a growth trend in the energy sector, suggesting a potential rise in oil prices and investment opportunities in oil-related industries [1] - The demand figures highlight the ongoing reliance on oil as a primary energy source, despite the global push for renewable energy alternatives [1] - OPEC's monthly report serves as a critical indicator for market participants to gauge future supply and demand dynamics in the oil market [1]

Core Insights - The IEA monthly report projects that global oil demand will reach an average of 103.8 million barrels per day in 2025 and 104.5 million barrels per day in 2026 [1] Industry Summary - The report indicates a steady increase in oil demand over the next few years, suggesting a robust recovery and growth in the global energy sector [1]

Summary of Oil Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the oil industry, focusing on global oil demand and supply dynamics as of May 2025 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Key Points on Oil Demand - As of May 16, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices were $65.33 per barrel and $61.93 per barrel, reflecting increases of 2.3% and 1.4% respectively, driven by supply-side shocks [1][2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a global oil demand increase of 740,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2025, a slight upward revision of 10,000 bpd, citing trade uncertainties, economic slowdown, and electric vehicle growth as demand suppressors [1][3]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has significantly raised its oil demand forecast for 2025 to 979,170 bpd, up from 800,000 bpd last month, indicating a divergence in market expectations but an overall upward trend [4]. Supply-Side Dynamics - OPEC announced a continuous production increase of 411,000 bpd for June, although actual increases may be lower due to member countries being in overproduction [6][7]. - The U.S. shale oil production growth is expected to slow significantly, with a projected increase of only 160,000 bpd this year, indicating an overall surplus in global supply [3][7]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict and the nearing Iran nuclear deal, are expected to impact supply dynamics, with Iran potentially restoring production to around 2 million bpd [5][6]. Geopolitical Influences - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, with negotiations yielding no results, suggesting a prolonged period of tension [5]. - The potential Iran nuclear deal could lead to increased Iranian oil supply, which may disrupt market stability [5]. Investment Considerations - Chinese oil companies, including China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC, are maintaining robust upstream capital expenditure and production growth targets of 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% respectively, emphasizing energy security as a strategic goal amid geopolitical risks [1][5]. Additional Insights - The overall sentiment in the oil market reflects a cautious optimism regarding demand growth, particularly from emerging economies, despite challenges posed by economic conditions and geopolitical uncertainties [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The report highlights a downward adjustment in the 2025 crude oil inventory forecast by EIA, indicating a more cautious outlook on supply and demand dynamics in the oil market [1][20] Summary by Sections Crude Oil Price Overview - As of April 9, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Russian Urals prices were $65.48, $62.35, $56.53, and $65.49 per barrel respectively, with month-to-date changes of -5.48% for Brent and -5.57% for WTI [7][8] Crude Oil Inventory - As of April 4, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventory was 83,905.5 million barrels, with a month-on-month increase of 824.4 million barrels [14][19] - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil inventory changes for 2025 to be +57.52, +3.11, and -138.23 thousand barrels per day respectively, with an average forecast change of -25.87 thousand barrels per day [20] Crude Oil Supply - The 2025 global crude oil supply forecasts by IEA, EIA, and OPEC are 10,448.69, 10,416.72, and 10,381.77 million barrels per day respectively, reflecting increases from 2024 [26] - For Q1 2025, the predicted year-on-year supply increments are +150.86, +120.55, and +144.82 thousand barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [26] Crude Oil Demand - The 2025 global crude oil demand forecasts by IEA, EIA, and OPEC are 10,391.17, 10,413.61, and 10,520.00 million barrels per day respectively, with year-on-year increases from 2024 [20] - For Q1 2025, the predicted year-on-year demand increments are +123.54, +188.93, and +144.24 thousand barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [20] Related Listed Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [1][2]