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原油周报:俄乌地缘风险下,油价仍保持相对强势-2025-03-30
Xinda Securities· 2025-03-30 12:19
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the essence of the current oil price cycle is supply-side dynamics, with some oil-producing countries shifting from a market share competition strategy to a price support strategy due to production capacity constraints [9][8] - The report highlights that the U.S. oil extraction faces dual pressures of resource degradation and cost inflation, while OPEC+ maintains a strong willingness and capability to sustain high oil prices, indicating that there is still support at the bottom for oil prices [9][8] Oil Price Review - As of March 28, 2025, Brent and WTI oil prices were $72.76 and $69.36 per barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.61% and 1.58% from the previous week [25][7] - The report notes that the market is weighing the impact of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and the geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on supply [7][25] Oil Supply - As of March 21, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.574 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.1 thousand barrels per day from the previous week [45] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased by 2 to 484 as of March 28, 2025 [45] Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume was 15.750 million barrels per day as of March 21, 2025, an increase of 87 thousand barrels per day from the previous week [55] - The U.S. refinery utilization rate was 87.00%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous week [55] Oil Inventory - As of March 21, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventory was 830 million barrels, a decrease of 3.055 million barrels (-0.37%) from the previous week [64] - The commercial crude oil inventory was 434 million barrels, down 3.341 million barrels (-0.76%) from the previous week [64] Offshore Drilling Services - As of March 24, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 378, a decrease of 2 from the previous week [30] - The number of global floating drilling platforms was 140, also down by 1 from the previous week [30] Related Companies - Key companies mentioned include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [2]