证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] 行业评级 ——看好 上次评级——看好 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 原油周报：美伊冲突升级[Table_T ，油价itle震荡] 上涨 [Table_ReportDate0] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] ➢ 【油价回顾】截至 2026年 2月 27 日当周，国际油价小幅上涨。近期 市场关注焦点依旧在美伊问题，春节期间美国向伊朗附近海域部署军 舰，且美伊双方均加强军事活动，引发油价明显上涨。本周，石油市 场对美伊第三轮谈判仍保持谨慎，叠加 EIA 显示美国原油库存增加 ...

印度的摇摆背后，是难以调和的现实矛盾。印度90%的石油依赖进口，而国内七大炼油厂中，过半设备专门为俄罗斯乌拉尔重质原油设计。如果强行切换为 美国轻质原油，需投入数百亿美元改造生产线。更关键的是，印度与俄罗斯的军火合作深度绑定：印军60%的装备来自俄罗斯，从苏-30战斗机到T-90坦 克，甚至核潜艇技术，都依赖俄方支持。一旦彻底撕破脸，印度国防体系可能陷入瘫痪。 与此同时，俄罗斯的应对更为果断。面对印度采购量从每日200万桶峰值腰斩至110万桶（2026年1月数据）的冲击，俄罗斯迅速将出口重心转向中国。石油 交易员透露，俄罗斯对华出口的ESPO原油折扣已扩大至每桶9美元，主打印度市场的乌拉尔原油折扣更是达到每桶12美元，创下阶段性纪录。 但蹊跷的是，莫迪的回应仅有一句"感谢美国下调关税"，对停止采购俄罗斯石油一事只字未提。这种刻意留白，让美、俄、印三方的表态出现微妙裂痕。克 里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫很快公开表示："未收到印度官方停止采购的通知。"而印度商业和工业部长戈亚尔在国会质询时，也只是反复强调"能源安全是政 府优先事项"，始终不给出明确答案。 表面上，美印协议看似美国用关税杠杆成功拉拢了印度，但暗地里，印度 ...

Oil Price Sector - As of February 2, 2026, the prices for Brent crude, WTI crude, Russian ESPO crude, and Russian Urals crude are $66.30, $62.14, $52.90, and $65.49 per barrel respectively [1][2] - The price changes over the past month for major oil products are as follows: Brent crude (+9.14%), WTI crude (+8.41%), Russian ESPO (+8.34%), and Russian Urals (0.00%) [1][2] Oil Inventory Sector - According to the January 2026 report, IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil inventory changes of +372.24, +282.58, and -56.86 thousand barrels per day respectively, compared to December 2025 predictions which were -14.27, +56.86, and -59.34 thousand barrels per day [2] - The average forecast for global oil inventory changes in 2026 is +199.32 thousand barrels per day, which is a decrease of 5.58 thousand barrels per day from the December 2025 average [2] Oil Supply Sector - The January 2026 report from IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecasts global oil supply for 2026 to be 10,870.29, 10,765.19, and 10,593.14 million barrels per day respectively, showing increases of 251.53, 138.75, and 122.43 million barrels per day compared to 2025 [3] - For Q1 2026, the predicted global oil supply changes are +421.90, +353.62, and -166.79 thousand barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [3] Oil Demand Sector - The January 2026 report indicates that IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil demand for 2026 to be 10,498.05, 10,482.61, and 10,650.00 million barrels per day respectively, with increases of 93.22, 113.81, and 136.34 million barrels per day compared to 2025 [4] - For Q1 2026, the forecasted changes in global oil demand are +84.07, +140.81, and +133.59 thousand barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [4] Related Companies - Relevant listed companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) among others [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in international oil prices due to geopolitical developments and supply dynamics, with a recent rebound in prices following a period of decline [1][2]. Group 2 - As of February 6, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $68.05 per barrel, down $1.27 (-1.83%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.55 per barrel, down $1.66 (-2.55%) [2]. - The global number of offshore self-elevating drilling rigs decreased by 6 to 370, with reductions in Southeast Asia, North America, and other regions [3]. - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.215 million barrels per day, a decrease of 481,000 barrels per day from the previous week [3]. - U.S. total crude oil inventory stood at 836 million barrels, a decrease of 3.241 million barrels (-0.39%) from the previous week [4]. - The price of biodiesel and biojet fuel remained stable, with the FOB price for ester-based biodiesel at $1,150 per ton [5]. Group 3 - Related companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry [1]. Core Insights - The IEA and OPEC have revised down their global crude oil inventory expectations for 2026, indicating a more cautious outlook for supply and demand dynamics in the oil market [1][2]. - Predictions for global crude oil supply in 2026 are set at 10870.29, 10765.19, and 10593.14 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, showing an increase compared to 2025 [2][30]. - Global crude oil demand forecasts for 2026 are 10498.05, 10482.61, and 10650.00 thousand barrels per day, reflecting a modest increase from 2025 [2][30]. - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude at 66.30 USD/barrel, WTI at 62.14 USD/barrel, and a notable increase in prices over the past month [3][9]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Overview - As of February 2, 2026, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Urals prices are 66.30, 62.14, 52.90, and 65.49 USD/barrel respectively, with Brent and WTI showing increases of 9.14% and 8.41% over the past month [9]. Global Crude Oil Inventory - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil inventory changes for 2026 at +372.24, +282.58, and -56.86 thousand barrels per day respectively, with an average change of +199.32 thousand barrels per day [2][24]. Global Crude Oil Supply - The forecast for global crude oil supply in 2026 is 10870.29, 10765.19, and 10593.14 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC, with respective increases of +251.53, +138.75, and +122.43 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025 [2][30]. Global Crude Oil Demand - The demand forecast for 2026 is 10498.05, 10482.61, and 10650.00 thousand barrels per day, with increases of +93.22, +113.81, and +136.34 thousand barrels per day from 2025 [2][30]. Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical developments, including the potential resumption of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, which initially eased risks but later saw a resurgence following military incidents [2][9]. - As of February 6, 2026, Brent and WTI oil prices were reported at $68.05 and $63.55 per barrel, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 1.83% and 2.55% from the previous week [2][25]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $68.05 per barrel, down $1.27 (-1.83%), while WTI futures were at $63.55, down $1.66 (-2.55%) [2][25]. - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, and ESPO crude fell to $54.91, down $0.55 (-0.99%) [2][25]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 370, a decrease of 6 from the previous week, while floating drilling rigs totaled 132, down by 2 [28]. U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.215 million barrels per day, a decrease of 481,000 barrels from the previous week [35]. - The active rig count in the U.S. increased by 1 to 412 rigs as of February 6, 2026 [35]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing averaged 16.029 million barrels per day, down by 180,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 90.50%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points [43]. U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 836 million barrels, a decrease of 3.241 million barrels (-0.39%) from the previous week [52]. - Strategic oil inventories increased slightly to 415 million barrels, while commercial inventories decreased to 420 million barrels [52]. Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1] Core Insights - As of January 23, 2026, international oil prices have seen a slight increase due to multiple favorable factors, including temporary production halts in Kazakhstan, an upward revision of global economic growth forecasts, the cancellation of tariffs on eight European countries by Trump, and extreme cold weather potentially affecting supply and demand [2][9] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $65.07 and $61.07 per barrel, respectively, marking increases of 1.47% and 2.92% from the previous week [2][20] - The oil and petrochemical sector outperformed, with a 7.71% increase, while the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.62% [10][13] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $65.07 per barrel, up $0.94 (+1.47%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $61.07 per barrel, an increase of $1.73 (+2.92%) [2][20] Offshore Drilling Services - As of January 19, 2026, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 376, a decrease of 1 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms increased by 3 to a total of 133 [29] Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.732 million barrels per day as of January 16, 2026, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week [39] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. increased by 1 to 411 as of January 23, 2026 [39] Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.604 million barrels per day as of January 16, 2026, down by 354,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.30%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points [47] Oil Inventory - As of January 16, 2026, total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 841 million barrels, an increase of 4.408 million barrels (+0.53%) from the previous week [48] Related Stocks - Key stocks in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, and China Oilfield Services [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, are significant factors influencing oil prices. The Brent and WTI oil prices were reported at $64.13 and $59.34 per barrel, respectively, as of January 16, 2026 [2][9]. Oil Price Overview - As of January 16, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $64.13 per barrel, up $0.79 (+1.25%) from the previous week. WTI crude futures settled at $59.34 per barrel, up $0.22 (+0.37%). The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude rose by $0.49 (+0.98%) to $50.39 per barrel [2][26]. Offshore Drilling Services - As of January 12, 2026, the global number of offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 377, an increase of 1 from the previous week. The number of floating drilling platforms was 130, also up by 1 [2][35]. U.S. Oil Supply - As of January 9, 2026, U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.753 million barrels per day, a decrease of 58,000 barrels from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 410, with an increase of 1 rig [2][49]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing was 16.958 million barrels per day as of January 9, 2026, an increase of 49,000 barrels from the previous week. The refinery utilization rate was 95.30%, up 0.6 percentage points [2][57]. U.S. Oil Inventory - As of January 9, 2026, total U.S. crude oil inventories were 836 million barrels, an increase of 3.605 million barrels (+0.43%) from the previous week. Strategic oil inventories were 414 million barrels, up 214,000 barrels (+0.05%) [2][67]. Related Companies - Key companies mentioned include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [2][3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - International oil prices experienced slight increases due to geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Ukraine, with Brent and WTI prices at $60.75 and $57.32 per barrel respectively as of January 2, 2026 [2][9] - The oil and petrochemical sector showed a strong performance, with a 3.92% increase in the sector index compared to a slight decline in the broader market [10] - The report highlights the increase in U.S. crude oil production and refinery processing rates, indicating a robust demand environment [57][62] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of January 2, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $60.75 per barrel, up $0.51 (+0.85%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $57.32 per barrel, an increase of $0.58 (+1.02%) [31] - The geopolitical situation, particularly in Venezuela and Ukraine, is influencing market dynamics, balancing risks of supply surplus against geopolitical tensions [2][9] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs increased to 375, with notable additions in Africa, Europe, and North America [40] - Floating drilling platforms also saw a rise, totaling 131, with increases in Africa and South America [40] Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production reached 13.827 million barrels per day, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 million barrels from the previous week [57] - The active rig count in the U.S. rose to 412, indicating ongoing exploration and production activities [57] Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing averaged 16.847 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 94.70%, showing a slight increase in operational efficiency [62] - The report notes stable refinery operation rates in China, with major refineries operating at 75.11% capacity [62] Crude Oil Inventory - As of December 26, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 836 million barrels, a decrease of 1.686 million barrels (-0.20%) from the previous week [75] - Strategic reserves increased slightly, while commercial inventories saw a notable decline [75] Finished Oil Products - In North America, average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were reported at $89.37, $71.66, and $80.18 per barrel respectively, with corresponding price differentials to crude oil [99]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The average global crude oil inventory change for 2026 is projected to be +204.90 thousand barrels per day according to IEA, EIA, and OPEC [2] - For Q4 2025, the average inventory change is expected to be +162.53 thousand barrels per day, showing a revision from previous forecasts [2] - Global crude oil supply for 2025 is forecasted at 10617.36, 10607.84, and 10470.71 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase [2] - The global crude oil demand for 2025 is estimated at 10392.25, 10393.68, and 10513.66 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, reflecting a modest increase from 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil supply for 2026 to be 10865.02, 10742.59, and 10654.18 thousand barrels per day respectively, with increases from 2025 [2][35] - The Q4 2025 supply increase is projected at +414.30, +385.36, and +254.12 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [35] Oil Demand - The demand for 2026 is forecasted at 10478.51, 10516.87, and 10651.70 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, indicating a growth from 2025 [2][35] - The demand increase for Q4 2025 is expected to be +108.72, +130.72, and +152.22 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [4] Oil Prices - As of December 18, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Russian Urals prices are reported at 59.82, 56.00, 47.94, and 65.49 USD per barrel respectively, with significant declines observed over the year [9][10] - Year-to-date price changes show Brent down by -21.22%, WTI by -23.42%, and Russian ESPO by -33.37% [9][10] Oil Inventory - The global crude oil inventory change for 2025 is projected at +225.11, +214.16, and -42.95 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, with an average increase of +132.11 thousand barrels per day [26] - The U.S. total crude oil inventory as of December 12, 2025, stands at 83658.8 thousand barrels, reflecting a slight increase [19][20]