1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, the US biodiesel policy is on the agenda, boosting the global vegetable oil prices. Palm oil and soybean oil have stopped falling and rebounded, while rapeseed oil has stabilized at the bottom. In the medium to long term, it is advisable to maintain a long - position thinking of buying on dips, and continue to hold long positions in rapeseed oil [1][2] - For the two - meal sector, view the short - term rebound of double meals, and wait for short - selling opportunities after the return of fundamentals following the subsiding of macro - narrative sentiment [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 28th, boosted by the sharp rise in international crude oil and the shift of sector funds, the vegetable oil sector continued its strong upward trend. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8326 yuan/ton, up 0.82% day - on - day, with an increase of 8470 lots in open interest. Similar trends were seen in other contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [1][2] 3.1.2 Important Information - International oil prices rose 1.49% on January 28th due to concerns about the Iranian situation and a weaker US dollar. The active March crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose $0.93, or 1.49%, to settle at $63.21 per barrel [1] - Trump's claim that the US "fleet" was heading to Iran pushed up oil prices, providing additional support for soybean oil prices used in biofuel production [1] - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1] - Malaysia lowered its February reference price for crude palm oil, reducing the export tariff to 9%. The February reference price was 3,846.84 ringgit ($950) per ton, compared with 3,946.17 ringgit in January with an export tariff of 9.5% [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [1] - From January 1st to 25th, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 15.28% and the oil extraction rate (OER) up 0.11% [1] - From January 1st to 20th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 947,939 tons, an increase of 11.4% compared with 851,057 tons in the same period in December [1] - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared with 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, and the B50 mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1][2] - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0449 million tons, down 58,500 tons week - on - week, a 2.78% decrease and a 2.60% increase year - on - year. The inventory of different oils showed different trends [2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the tense situation in the Middle East and winter storms tightened the expected supply of US crude oil, and international crude oil continued to rise, driving up the price of US soybean oil. The upward trend of Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue due to macro - narrative promotion and potential positive factors such as production decline and export growth [2] - Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. The customs tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, but the domestic auction of old imported soybeans was fully sold, and the oil mills had sufficient soybeans for crushing, with the Spring Festival stocking still ongoing. For palm oil, after the release of negative data from Southeast Asia, the market focused more on the US biodiesel policy expectations, and the improvement in export data boosted the price. For rapeseed oil, the new economic and trade agreement between China and Canada, the US tariff threat to Canada, and the Spring Festival stocking factors led to a sharp rise in price [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Continue to hold existing long positions in soybean oil and palm oil, and also hold long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [2] - Arbitrage trading: None at present [2] 3.2 Two - Meal Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 28th, with the shift of sector hotspots and the support of macro - narrative, the double - meal continued to rebound. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2782 yuan/ton, up 0.58% day - on - day, with an increase of 5766 lots in open interest [2][3] 3.2.2 Important Information - Since the Sino - US trade truce agreement in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the commitment in advance [3] - The estimated soybean exports from Brazil in January 2026 are 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and a 238% increase from the same period last year [3] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate [3] - As of January 16th, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, and the harvest progress in Mato Grosso state was 6.69% [3] - As of December 30th, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, and the second - season soybean sowing progress reached 71.9% [3] - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's 2026 soybean exports will be 105 million tons, a 3% decrease from the record in 2025, and the soybean crushing volume will reach 60 million tons, a 2.5% increase from last year [3] - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a 114% increase from the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons [3] - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, down 4.35% week - on - week, and the contract volume decreased by 13.24% week - on - week. The inventory and contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed meal remained unchanged [3] - The national grain trading center's auction of imported soybeans on January 13th had a 100% transaction rate [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the increasing drought risk in Argentina and the weaker US dollar led to the continued rise of US soybeans [4] - Domestically, in the spot market, the fixed - price and near - month basis of oil mills were mostly stable. The terminal pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, and the oil mill inventory continued to decline. However, the high operating rate of oil mills and the alleviation of local vehicle - queuing problems made it difficult for the market trading volume to increase. Due to the renewed tension in Sino - Canadian trade relations affected by US remarks, the short - selling funds in rapeseed meal decreased, and the rapeseed meal futures price continued to rise. In the spot market, the downstream inventory - building rate slowed down due to policy fluctuations [4] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Operate the 05 and 09 contracts of double meals with a rebound mindset, and provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [4] - Arbitrage trading: None at present [4]