Group 1 - The 10-1Y yield spread may face widening pressure due to changes in macroeconomic narratives and the weakening economic cycle since 2023, which has shifted the trading behavior and expectations [6][12][18] - The 30-10Y yield spread is expected to narrow in the short term, but long-term observations are needed to assess whether the fundamentals can continue to improve [18][30][39] - The government bond supply is nearing its end in 2025, but broad fiscal expansion is expected in 2026, which may create supply-demand matching pressures on the long-term yield spreads [39][42] Group 2 - The 10-1Y yield spread may widen under the constraints of bond asset cost-effectiveness, while opportunities for curve trading in the 30-10Y yield spread are worth noting [48][49] - The current 30-10Y yield spread has reached a relatively high level, suggesting potential for flattening curve trades [39][40] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the supply-demand dynamics of government bonds, particularly in the context of fiscal policies and central bank actions [42][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate returning to the "6 era" within the year is still low, but it has increased compared to the previous expectation. The operating range is likely to be between 6.90 - 7.25, with the core fluctuation range more concentrated between 7.00 - 7.20. The overall appreciation space is relatively limited, but the depreciation momentum is accumulating [1]. - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate in Q4 2025 may have potential conditions for upward - fluctuating, but the actual increase depends on the central bank's policy attitude and regulatory signals, as well as the verification of the Chinese economy [2][19]. - The potential capital inflow can provide phased support for the RMB, but its sustainability and actual impact scale should not be linearly extrapolated. The Q4 2025 operating environment of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will probably be in the cycle combination of "loose money and weak broad credit", which provides a core operating basis for "slowing down the appreciation rhythm" [3]. - The US dollar index is expected to be volatile and weak, with an operating range of 95 - 102 [6]. - The potential "US dollar settlement wave" has increased the probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate falling to the "6 era" within the year, although its formation is still restricted by multiple factors [7][90]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - **Strategy Suggestions** - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the expected increase in the volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate in Q4 compared to Q3 but still in a historically low range, a short straddle option strategy can be adopted, selling both out - of - the - money call and put options [1]. - **Hedging Strategy** - **For Purchasing Foreign Exchange**: Prioritize forward exchange locking. Start at the low - middle level (7.00 - 7.10) of the core exchange rate range, and lock 60% - 80% of the positions in batches. If the exchange rate briefly falls to 6.90 - 7.00, an additional 20% - 30% can be locked. For those with non - fixed payment cycles, a combination of "forward exchange locking + optional transaction" can be used [1]. - **For Settling Foreign Exchange**: Anchor at the upper limit of the range. When the exchange rate reaches 7.18 - 7.20, settle 30% - 40% of the US dollars. If it breaks through 7.20, an additional 20% - 30% can be settled [1]. 3.2 Market Conditions and Core Concerns 3.2.1 Market Volatility Conditions - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate maintained a low - volatility operation in Q3 2025. Whether it can increase volatility in Q4 depends on factors such as macro - narrative changes, market trading volume, and the central bank's policy [10][19]. - **Macro - Narrative Perspective**: The shift from low - to high - volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is related to major macro - narrative changes, following a cycle of "narrative turning - divergence intensifying - volatility rising - cognition converging - volatility converging - new narrative starting". The next potential macro - narrative that may drive volatility is the "Fed's monetary policy shift (substantial and high - rhythm interest rate cuts)" [20]. - **Market Driving Force Perspective**: The inquiry trading volume of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is positively correlated with its implied volatility. An increase in trading volume may indicate an increase in volatility. Currently, the three indicators (offshore - onshore spread, risk - reversal option, and RMB non - deliverable forward) show relatively stable market expectations for the RMB's appreciation and depreciation. If the trading volume remains above $35 billion, the market may accumulate upward volatility momentum [22][31]. - **Central Bank's Policy Perspective**: The central bank's exchange - rate management in Q4 focuses on the "dynamic balance between enhancing flexibility and preventing risks". It will adopt a "discretionary" approach, adjusting policy tools according to market dynamics. The RMB exchange rate is difficult to form a smooth appreciation or depreciation trend [34][38]. 3.2.2 Stock - Exchange Linkage - The stock market and the foreign - exchange market are related through capital flow and market expectation. The recent "residential deposit migration" to the stock market has provided incremental funds for the A - share market, which is driven by the decline in bank deposit interest rates and the increase in the attractiveness of equity assets [43][49]. - However, the "residential deposit/ total market value" chart has three core flaws and cannot be used as direct evidence of "residential deposit migration". The potential capital inflow can provide phased support for the RMB, but its sustainability and scale depend on the long - term investment attractiveness of the stock market and the domestic economic fundamentals [53][55]. - The Q4 2025 operating environment of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is likely to be in the cycle of "loose money supply and weak credit expansion", with the appreciation rhythm slowing down. The probability of the RMB forming a trend - based appreciation against the US dollar within the year is still low, but the probability of the RMB exchange rate returning to the "6 era" has increased [63][64]. 3.2.3 External Weak US Dollar Environment - The Fed's interest - rate cut amplitude and rhythm depend on the evolution path of the US economic fundamentals. The September 2025 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut and the weak non - farm employment data have made the issue of "whether the US economy is facing a recession" a key concern [66]. - **Economic Level**: The current US employment market has slowed down but not stalled. Inflation pressure and real - estate market risks restrict the Fed from implementing substantial interest - rate cuts within the year [71][72]. - **Policy Level**: Politically, the short - term policy is likely to remain on the "gradual adjustment" track. If the Fed's independence is interfered with, it may lead to more and larger - scale interest - rate cuts. Overall, the US dollar index is expected to operate in the range of 95 - 102 [73][76]. 3.2.4 US Dollar Settlement Wave - The formation of the US dollar settlement wave has a solid capital foundation, but it also depends on the effective cooperation of enterprise settlement willingness. The factors affecting the RMB exchange rate returning to the "6 era" include the central bank's exchange - rate intermediate - price control, the attractiveness of the domestic equity market, the trend of the US dollar index, and the behavior of enterprises in foreign - exchange transactions [7][85]. 3.3 Q4 Exchange - Rate Trend Judgment - **Benchmark Scenario**: In the context of the Fed's cautious interest - rate cut and the weak recovery of the domestic economy, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7.00 - 7.20, with the depreciation momentum gradually accumulating. There are uncertainties in the domestic economic recovery process and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm [91]. - **Upward Risk**: Factors such as the unexpected rebound of US inflation, strong US economic data, a change in global risk preference, and uncertainties in the domestic economic recovery may cause the RMB to face short - term depreciation pressure and may briefly break through the 7.20 mark [91][92]. - **Downward Risk**: If the US inflation continues to fall, the domestic economic recovery exceeds expectations, and domestic policies are actively implemented, the RMB may appreciate, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate may fall below 7.0 [92]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In a low - volatility environment, a short straddle option strategy can be adopted, selling both out - of - the - money call and put options. Attention can also be paid to volatility surface arbitrage opportunities, such as constructing a position of "selling near - month straddle combinations + buying far - month straddle combinations" when the near - month implied volatility is significantly higher than the far - month [94]. - **Hedging Strategy** - **For Purchasing Foreign Exchange**: Prioritize forward exchange locking. Start at the low - middle level (7.00 - 7.10) of the core exchange - rate range, and lock 60% - 80% of the positions in batches. For those with non - fixed payment cycles, a combination of "forward exchange locking + optional transaction" can be used [95]. - **For Settling Foreign Exchange**: Anchor at the upper limit of the range. When the exchange rate reaches 7.18 - 7.20, settle 30% - 40% of the US dollars. If it breaks through 7.20, an additional 20% - 30% can be settled, leaving 20% - 30% for subsequent fluctuations [96]. - **Common Risk Warnings** - Avoid excessive speculation and adhere to the "risk - neutral" principle, with the hedging scale matching the actual trade volume [97]. - Dynamically track policies and the market. Adjust hedging positions in time if the USD/CNY spot exchange rate breaks through 7.25 or falls below 7.0 [99]. - Select appropriate tools. Small and medium - sized enterprises should give priority to simple tools such as forwards and options, while large enterprises can combine futures and other tools to optimize strategies but need to be equipped with a professional foreign - exchange management team [99].

Core Viewpoint - The entry of major financial institutions like Citigroup into cryptocurrency custody and payment services signals a shift towards mainstream adoption, but it may also indicate the emergence of structural bubbles within the market [1][3]. Group 1: Institutional Involvement - The market reacted positively to institutional adoption, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF reportedly attracting $88 billion in assets, suggesting a significant influx of capital into the cryptocurrency space [1]. - However, this institutional interest may lead to a transformation of original cryptocurrencies into financial products that lack the same freedoms and functionalities, akin to "Wall Street's Bitcoin NFTs" [3][4]. Group 2: Asset Transformation - The concept of "Bitcoin NFTs" highlights the difference between owning actual Bitcoin and holding a financial instrument that represents Bitcoin exposure, which is subject to regulatory constraints and trading hours [4][5]. - Approximately 130,000 Bitcoins, or 6.2% of the total supply, are locked in U.S. spot ETF vaults, indicating a significant shift in asset control from individual holders to a few financial giants [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The shift from on-chain activity to macro narratives as the primary drivers of market value represents a fundamental change in the risk model of the cryptocurrency market [6][7]. - The reliance on a few large institutions for market stability creates a fragile ecosystem, where coordinated selling by these entities could lead to a more severe market downturn than past retail-driven sell-offs [7]. Group 4: Ethereum's Challenges - Ethereum faces dual threats as its application value diminishes due to the rise of dedicated chains and Layer 2 solutions, while its narrative as a reserve asset is also under pressure [10][11]. - Over 50% of ETH is locked in staking contracts, creating artificial scarcity, but this narrative is fragile and could collapse if macro conditions change or institutions decide to take profits [10][11]. Group 5: Misunderstandings of Maturity - The comparison of Bitcoin's evolution to that of gold is misleading, as it overlooks Bitcoin's core value proposition as a decentralized, censorship-resistant digital cash system [12][13]. - The introduction of mechanisms like in-kind redemptions in ETFs does not resolve systemic risks associated with asset concentration and the potential for coordinated sell-offs by institutional investors [13]. Group 6: Conclusion - The current market environment, characterized by institutional involvement, may not represent a victory for cryptocurrency ideals but rather a process of co-opting and repackaging by traditional finance [14]. - Investors are urged to recognize the inherent risks and to prioritize holding original tokens that offer true ownership and control, especially in light of the potential for significant market corrections [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong market sentiment with soda ash futures rising over 5% in the night session, driven by strong policy expectations and macroeconomic narratives [1] - Institutional analysis indicates that the current market sentiment is exuberant, suggesting a sustained strong price expectation for soda ash [1] - The article notes a commodity resonance rally, implying that various commodities are experiencing upward price movements in tandem with soda ash [1]

Core Viewpoints - The current market valuation may not support a purely liquidity-driven rally, but unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China could act as catalysts for market sentiment [1] - Structural opportunities will be a key topic during the mid-year reporting season, while index opportunities may need to wait until late Q3 or Q4 [1] - The electrification process is accelerating globally, with a focus on the full industrial chain's monetization capabilities in the electrification and AI sectors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent market changes indicate that there is no shortage of money, with trading volumes reaching approximately 1.5 trillion yuan [2] - The market is poised for potential upward movement, contingent on three triggers: attractive valuations, strong current and future fundamental expectations [2][3] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile yet upward trend, supported by the influx of medium to long-term funds and favorable policies [7][11] Group 2: Sector Focus - Key investment themes include domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and sectors that have been underweighted by funds [5][7] - The technology sector is anticipated to regain market attention, particularly with the upcoming IPOs of tech companies and innovations in AI and military industries [1][6] - The focus on high-dividend assets and the technology sector, especially those related to AI capital expenditures, is expected to provide investment opportunities [16] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The market is currently experiencing a phase of structural improvement, but it is not yet at the level of a bull market [6][10] - The potential for a bull market is contingent on either a positive shift in earnings or policy direction by Q3 [10] - The overall economic recovery is expected to be driven by domestic consumption and export growth, with a cautious outlook on external risks [4][10]

Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 ➢ 期货：目前市场以宏观叙事为主，受中美"对等关税"所影响，权益类市场呈现宽幅震荡格局，建议重点关注宏观情绪对大宗商品的影响。基本面而言，周五现货成交好转， 贸易商短期补库，现货及期货日内反弹。但由于目前北方地区基层仍处于停滞状态，本周末现货成交再次回归清淡，在周五价格反弹后，预计现货及期货短期有所回调。中期， 在进入农业需求淡季之前，预计尿素呈现宽幅震荡的格局。上方而言，伴随现货价格逐渐突破1900元/吨，中游贸易商销售意愿逐步增加，预计贸易货源流通性逐步增强，上 游及中游的高供应对上方空间形成压制。下方而言，目前现货及期货市场的主要矛盾在需求端，农业需求是市场博弈的主要核心点。4月底东北开始底肥，农业需求或对现货及 期货形成波段式驱动，因此对中周期维度价格形成支撑。 ➢ 策略建议：周五现货成交好转，单边上涨。基层未动导致本周末成交转弱，预计短期单边转弱；5-9月差中期进入震荡格局； ➢ 风险点：宏观事件冲击、出口政策调整，国际能源价格大幅波动； 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 国泰君安 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the "macro - narrative", there is room for imagination in the bond market, but it requires time to observe the transmission of external shocks and the response of domestic policies. The bond market is affected by external shocks, domestic economic conditions, and policy responses. The key lies in the impact of external shocks on domestic demand, balance sheets, and prices, as well as whether they stimulate more explicit demand - expanding policies [3][12]. - In the "micro - narrative", the bond market is recovering. The liquidity and yield logics are both being repaired. The intrinsic repair trend of large - bank liabilities and the central bank's possible re - loan to Central Huijin indicate liquidity improvement. The decline in the yield of coupon - bearing bonds and the reduction of the corporate credit bond stock scale are beneficial for the bond market. Time is on the side of the bond market [4][14]. - Overall, the bond market's yield may break through the previous low, but it still needs to wait for the implementation of monetary easing. It is recommended to prioritize income repair and accumulation, choose coupon - bearing varieties, and lay out long - end opportunities on the left side during volatile operations [5][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Bond's Macro and Micro Narratives - **Current Situation of Bond Market Strategy Selection**: After the rapid decline in yields, the operation difficulty of the bond market has increased significantly. The space for coupon - bearing varieties has been compressed, and the operation of the duration strategy is difficult [3][11]. - **Macro - narrative**: There are opportunities in the bond market under the macro - narrative. The deflation story in trading is unlikely to return as long as the domestic real - estate cycle shows signs of stabilization. However, it is necessary to observe the impact of external shocks on domestic demand, balance - sheet repair, and price pressure, as well as the response of domestic policies [3][12]. - **Micro - narrative**: The bond market is recovering. The liquidity logic is being repaired as large - bank liabilities have an intrinsic repair trend, and the central bank's possible re - loan to Central Huijin is a signal of liquidity supplementation. The yield logic is also being repaired as the yield of coupon - bearing bonds has declined, and the credit - bond investment yield has basically leveled off since the beginning of the year. For self - operated accounts with stable liabilities, the only option is to increase duration [4][14]. - **Exchange - rate Issue**: The external shock has accelerated the choice of the RMB exchange - rate policy. In the short term, maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate is the primary choice of monetary policy. In the medium term, the central bank needs to decide whether to choose an orderly depreciation of the RMB to maintain trade advantages or stability/appreciation to enhance capital - account attractiveness. The weakening of the US dollar provides an option for RMB appreciation in the long - term, which will restructure the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates [4][16]. - **Investment Strategy**: The bond market's yield may break through the previous low, but it needs to wait for the implementation of monetary easing. It is recommended to focus on income repair and accumulation, select coupon - bearing varieties, and look for long - end opportunities on the left side during market fluctuations [5][18].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The overall outlook for the urea market is one of oscillatory pressure. International and domestic price disparities persist due to strict export inspection policies. In the short - term, the spot market is expected to be weak, influenced by macro - level factors such as the "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the United States and the pessimistic sentiment in the equity market. In the medium - term, the market will depend on the improvement of macro - sentiment and the release of fundamental demand. The futures market is also expected to follow the general trend of commodities, with the UR2505 contract likely to show a high - level oscillatory pattern [2][4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Valuation: Price and Spread - **International Spot Prices**: Prices in various regions have generally increased, except for the Indian CIF price which remained stable. The price differences between the international and domestic markets continue due to strict export inspection policies [2]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Affected by the "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the United States, the market is driven by macro - narratives. In the short - term, the spot market is expected to be weak, while the medium - term trend depends on macro - sentiment and demand [2]. - **Futures**: In the short - term, the futures market is expected to decline along with commodities. In the medium - term, the UR2505 contract is expected to oscillate at a high level, with supply from upstream and mid - stream restricting the upside and agricultural demand providing support [4]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion of urea production capacity continues in 2025. In 2024, a total of 427 million tons of new capacity was added, and in 2025, an additional 346 million tons of new capacity is expected [25]. - **Production**: Production profit is around the break - even point, and daily urea production remains at a high level [30]. - **Cost**: Raw material prices are relatively stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost is around 1,486 yuan/ton [32]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is close to the break - even line [33]. - **Net Import (Export)**: Due to the strict "Legal Inspection" policy, urea exports remain extremely low, although the theoretical export profit is high due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets [39][42]. 3.3 Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Seasonal demand is increasing, and the construction of high - standard farmland has led to an increased demand for urea from corn [48][51]. - **Industrial Demand**: The production of compound fertilizers is operating at a high capacity utilization rate, while the production of melamine has decreased compared to last year. The demand for panels from the real estate sector is limited, but panel exports show resilience [57][59][60]. 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: As of April 2, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 754,200 tons, a decrease of 113,600 tons from the previous week, a 13.09% week - on - week decrease. The inventory reduction rate has slowed down [3][66]. - **Port Inventory**: As of April 3, 2025 (week 14), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week, a 7.69% week - on - week decrease [67]. 3.5 International Urea - **Prices**: International urea prices are firm, with prices in various regions showing an upward trend [2]. - **India**: Information on India's urea production, imports, demand, and balance sheets from fiscal years 2018 - 2025 is provided, showing trends in supply, demand, and inventory changes [84].