Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair has raised hawkish expectations in the market, leading to a stronger dollar and short-term negative impacts on the pricing of base and precious metals [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The market's hawkish sentiment is expected to negatively affect the pricing of base and precious metals in the short term [1] - Observations on U.S. Treasury bond fluctuations indicate that the macro narrative is unlikely to reverse in the short term, with precious metals showing more of a pullback after previous trends and risk release [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand balance for platinum is projected to be tight by 2026, while palladium is shifting from a decade-long supply deficit to a surplus [1] - From a fundamental perspective, platinum is expected to have a stronger upward drive compared to palladium [1] - Upcoming production guidance from platinum group metal mining companies for 2026 will be crucial to monitor for changes in supply [1]

Group 1: Geopolitical Shift - The Trump administration has shifted its stance on Iran, indicating a preference for diplomacy over military action, which has led to a decrease in geopolitical risks and market volatility [1][3][4] - The U.S. faces significant challenges in military intervention against Iran due to its military capabilities and geographical factors, making military options more cautious [4] Group 2: Market Reaction - The easing of geopolitical tensions has resulted in a historic sell-off of traditional safe-haven assets, with COMEX gold futures dropping 11% and silver futures plummeting 31% on January 30 [6][8] - The market's reaction is also influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair, perceived as a hawkish choice, prompting a reassessment of the Fed's independence and the weak dollar trend [6] Group 3: Speculative Withdrawal - The shift in market sentiment is reflected in trading data, with speculative funds rapidly withdrawing from gold and silver as geopolitical tensions eased [8] - The RSI index for COMEX gold and silver futures remained above 70, indicating an overheated speculative trading environment prior to the sell-off [8] Group 4: Fundamental Return - As macro narratives stabilize, the focus is shifting back to micro fundamentals, with the U.S. monetary policy still favoring gold despite a decrease in bullish sentiment [10] - Iran's potential return to normal oil exports could stabilize global oil supply, but the market still faces structural challenges, with predictions of declining commodity prices in 2026 [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - Uncertainties remain regarding the Iranian situation, particularly if Iran makes significant advancements in nuclear and missile technology [12] - The market may enter a phase of "macro narrative oscillation," with short-term uncertainties influenced by Fed policies and geopolitical developments, while micro fundamentals may provide clearer market direction [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, the US biodiesel policy is on the agenda, boosting the global vegetable oil prices. Palm oil and soybean oil have stopped falling and rebounded, while rapeseed oil has stabilized at the bottom. In the medium to long term, it is advisable to maintain a long - position thinking of buying on dips, and continue to hold long positions in rapeseed oil [1][2] - For the two - meal sector, view the short - term rebound of double meals, and wait for short - selling opportunities after the return of fundamentals following the subsiding of macro - narrative sentiment [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 28th, boosted by the sharp rise in international crude oil and the shift of sector funds, the vegetable oil sector continued its strong upward trend. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8326 yuan/ton, up 0.82% day - on - day, with an increase of 8470 lots in open interest. Similar trends were seen in other contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [1][2] 3.1.2 Important Information - International oil prices rose 1.49% on January 28th due to concerns about the Iranian situation and a weaker US dollar. The active March crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose $0.93, or 1.49%, to settle at $63.21 per barrel [1] - Trump's claim that the US "fleet" was heading to Iran pushed up oil prices, providing additional support for soybean oil prices used in biofuel production [1] - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1] - Malaysia lowered its February reference price for crude palm oil, reducing the export tariff to 9%. The February reference price was 3,846.84 ringgit ($950) per ton, compared with 3,946.17 ringgit in January with an export tariff of 9.5% [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [1] - From January 1st to 25th, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 15.28% and the oil extraction rate (OER) up 0.11% [1] - From January 1st to 20th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 947,939 tons, an increase of 11.4% compared with 851,057 tons in the same period in December [1] - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared with 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, and the B50 mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1][2] - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0449 million tons, down 58,500 tons week - on - week, a 2.78% decrease and a 2.60% increase year - on - year. The inventory of different oils showed different trends [2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the tense situation in the Middle East and winter storms tightened the expected supply of US crude oil, and international crude oil continued to rise, driving up the price of US soybean oil. The upward trend of Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue due to macro - narrative promotion and potential positive factors such as production decline and export growth [2] - Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. The customs tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, but the domestic auction of old imported soybeans was fully sold, and the oil mills had sufficient soybeans for crushing, with the Spring Festival stocking still ongoing. For palm oil, after the release of negative data from Southeast Asia, the market focused more on the US biodiesel policy expectations, and the improvement in export data boosted the price. For rapeseed oil, the new economic and trade agreement between China and Canada, the US tariff threat to Canada, and the Spring Festival stocking factors led to a sharp rise in price [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Continue to hold existing long positions in soybean oil and palm oil, and also hold long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [2] - Arbitrage trading: None at present [2] 3.2 Two - Meal Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 28th, with the shift of sector hotspots and the support of macro - narrative, the double - meal continued to rebound. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2782 yuan/ton, up 0.58% day - on - day, with an increase of 5766 lots in open interest [2][3] 3.2.2 Important Information - Since the Sino - US trade truce agreement in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the commitment in advance [3] - The estimated soybean exports from Brazil in January 2026 are 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and a 238% increase from the same period last year [3] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate [3] - As of January 16th, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, and the harvest progress in Mato Grosso state was 6.69% [3] - As of December 30th, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, and the second - season soybean sowing progress reached 71.9% [3] - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's 2026 soybean exports will be 105 million tons, a 3% decrease from the record in 2025, and the soybean crushing volume will reach 60 million tons, a 2.5% increase from last year [3] - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a 114% increase from the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons [3] - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, down 4.35% week - on - week, and the contract volume decreased by 13.24% week - on - week. The inventory and contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed meal remained unchanged [3] - The national grain trading center's auction of imported soybeans on January 13th had a 100% transaction rate [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the increasing drought risk in Argentina and the weaker US dollar led to the continued rise of US soybeans [4] - Domestically, in the spot market, the fixed - price and near - month basis of oil mills were mostly stable. The terminal pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, and the oil mill inventory continued to decline. However, the high operating rate of oil mills and the alleviation of local vehicle - queuing problems made it difficult for the market trading volume to increase. Due to the renewed tension in Sino - Canadian trade relations affected by US remarks, the short - selling funds in rapeseed meal decreased, and the rapeseed meal futures price continued to rise. In the spot market, the downstream inventory - building rate slowed down due to policy fluctuations [4] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Operate the 05 and 09 contracts of double meals with a rebound mindset, and provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [4] - Arbitrage trading: None at present [4]

Group 1 - The 10-1Y yield spread may face widening pressure due to changes in macroeconomic narratives and the weakening economic cycle since 2023, which has shifted the trading behavior and expectations [6][12][18] - The 30-10Y yield spread is expected to narrow in the short term, but long-term observations are needed to assess whether the fundamentals can continue to improve [18][30][39] - The government bond supply is nearing its end in 2025, but broad fiscal expansion is expected in 2026, which may create supply-demand matching pressures on the long-term yield spreads [39][42] Group 2 - The 10-1Y yield spread may widen under the constraints of bond asset cost-effectiveness, while opportunities for curve trading in the 30-10Y yield spread are worth noting [48][49] - The current 30-10Y yield spread has reached a relatively high level, suggesting potential for flattening curve trades [39][40] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the supply-demand dynamics of government bonds, particularly in the context of fiscal policies and central bank actions [42][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate returning to the "6 era" within the year is still low, but it has increased compared to the previous expectation. The operating range is likely to be between 6.90 - 7.25, with the core fluctuation range more concentrated between 7.00 - 7.20. The overall appreciation space is relatively limited, but the depreciation momentum is accumulating [1]. - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate in Q4 2025 may have potential conditions for upward - fluctuating, but the actual increase depends on the central bank's policy attitude and regulatory signals, as well as the verification of the Chinese economy [2][19]. - The potential capital inflow can provide phased support for the RMB, but its sustainability and actual impact scale should not be linearly extrapolated. The Q4 2025 operating environment of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will probably be in the cycle combination of "loose money and weak broad credit", which provides a core operating basis for "slowing down the appreciation rhythm" [3]. - The US dollar index is expected to be volatile and weak, with an operating range of 95 - 102 [6]. - The potential "US dollar settlement wave" has increased the probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate falling to the "6 era" within the year, although its formation is still restricted by multiple factors [7][90]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - **Strategy Suggestions** - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the expected increase in the volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate in Q4 compared to Q3 but still in a historically low range, a short straddle option strategy can be adopted, selling both out - of - the - money call and put options [1]. - **Hedging Strategy** - **For Purchasing Foreign Exchange**: Prioritize forward exchange locking. Start at the low - middle level (7.00 - 7.10) of the core exchange rate range, and lock 60% - 80% of the positions in batches. If the exchange rate briefly falls to 6.90 - 7.00, an additional 20% - 30% can be locked. For those with non - fixed payment cycles, a combination of "forward exchange locking + optional transaction" can be used [1]. - **For Settling Foreign Exchange**: Anchor at the upper limit of the range. When the exchange rate reaches 7.18 - 7.20, settle 30% - 40% of the US dollars. If it breaks through 7.20, an additional 20% - 30% can be settled [1]. 3.2 Market Conditions and Core Concerns 3.2.1 Market Volatility Conditions - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate maintained a low - volatility operation in Q3 2025. Whether it can increase volatility in Q4 depends on factors such as macro - narrative changes, market trading volume, and the central bank's policy [10][19]. - **Macro - Narrative Perspective**: The shift from low - to high - volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is related to major macro - narrative changes, following a cycle of "narrative turning - divergence intensifying - volatility rising - cognition converging - volatility converging - new narrative starting". The next potential macro - narrative that may drive volatility is the "Fed's monetary policy shift (substantial and high - rhythm interest rate cuts)" [20]. - **Market Driving Force Perspective**: The inquiry trading volume of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is positively correlated with its implied volatility. An increase in trading volume may indicate an increase in volatility. Currently, the three indicators (offshore - onshore spread, risk - reversal option, and RMB non - deliverable forward) show relatively stable market expectations for the RMB's appreciation and depreciation. If the trading volume remains above $35 billion, the market may accumulate upward volatility momentum [22][31]. - **Central Bank's Policy Perspective**: The central bank's exchange - rate management in Q4 focuses on the "dynamic balance between enhancing flexibility and preventing risks". It will adopt a "discretionary" approach, adjusting policy tools according to market dynamics. The RMB exchange rate is difficult to form a smooth appreciation or depreciation trend [34][38]. 3.2.2 Stock - Exchange Linkage - The stock market and the foreign - exchange market are related through capital flow and market expectation. The recent "residential deposit migration" to the stock market has provided incremental funds for the A - share market, which is driven by the decline in bank deposit interest rates and the increase in the attractiveness of equity assets [43][49]. - However, the "residential deposit/ total market value" chart has three core flaws and cannot be used as direct evidence of "residential deposit migration". The potential capital inflow can provide phased support for the RMB, but its sustainability and scale depend on the long - term investment attractiveness of the stock market and the domestic economic fundamentals [53][55]. - The Q4 2025 operating environment of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is likely to be in the cycle of "loose money supply and weak credit expansion", with the appreciation rhythm slowing down. The probability of the RMB forming a trend - based appreciation against the US dollar within the year is still low, but the probability of the RMB exchange rate returning to the "6 era" has increased [63][64]. 3.2.3 External Weak US Dollar Environment - The Fed's interest - rate cut amplitude and rhythm depend on the evolution path of the US economic fundamentals. The September 2025 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut and the weak non - farm employment data have made the issue of "whether the US economy is facing a recession" a key concern [66]. - **Economic Level**: The current US employment market has slowed down but not stalled. Inflation pressure and real - estate market risks restrict the Fed from implementing substantial interest - rate cuts within the year [71][72]. - **Policy Level**: Politically, the short - term policy is likely to remain on the "gradual adjustment" track. If the Fed's independence is interfered with, it may lead to more and larger - scale interest - rate cuts. Overall, the US dollar index is expected to operate in the range of 95 - 102 [73][76]. 3.2.4 US Dollar Settlement Wave - The formation of the US dollar settlement wave has a solid capital foundation, but it also depends on the effective cooperation of enterprise settlement willingness. The factors affecting the RMB exchange rate returning to the "6 era" include the central bank's exchange - rate intermediate - price control, the attractiveness of the domestic equity market, the trend of the US dollar index, and the behavior of enterprises in foreign - exchange transactions [7][85]. 3.3 Q4 Exchange - Rate Trend Judgment - **Benchmark Scenario**: In the context of the Fed's cautious interest - rate cut and the weak recovery of the domestic economy, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7.00 - 7.20, with the depreciation momentum gradually accumulating. There are uncertainties in the domestic economic recovery process and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm [91]. - **Upward Risk**: Factors such as the unexpected rebound of US inflation, strong US economic data, a change in global risk preference, and uncertainties in the domestic economic recovery may cause the RMB to face short - term depreciation pressure and may briefly break through the 7.20 mark [91][92]. - **Downward Risk**: If the US inflation continues to fall, the domestic economic recovery exceeds expectations, and domestic policies are actively implemented, the RMB may appreciate, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate may fall below 7.0 [92]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In a low - volatility environment, a short straddle option strategy can be adopted, selling both out - of - the - money call and put options. Attention can also be paid to volatility surface arbitrage opportunities, such as constructing a position of "selling near - month straddle combinations + buying far - month straddle combinations" when the near - month implied volatility is significantly higher than the far - month [94]. - **Hedging Strategy** - **For Purchasing Foreign Exchange**: Prioritize forward exchange locking. Start at the low - middle level (7.00 - 7.10) of the core exchange - rate range, and lock 60% - 80% of the positions in batches. For those with non - fixed payment cycles, a combination of "forward exchange locking + optional transaction" can be used [95]. - **For Settling Foreign Exchange**: Anchor at the upper limit of the range. When the exchange rate reaches 7.18 - 7.20, settle 30% - 40% of the US dollars. If it breaks through 7.20, an additional 20% - 30% can be settled, leaving 20% - 30% for subsequent fluctuations [96]. - **Common Risk Warnings** - Avoid excessive speculation and adhere to the "risk - neutral" principle, with the hedging scale matching the actual trade volume [97]. - Dynamically track policies and the market. Adjust hedging positions in time if the USD/CNY spot exchange rate breaks through 7.25 or falls below 7.0 [99]. - Select appropriate tools. Small and medium - sized enterprises should give priority to simple tools such as forwards and options, while large enterprises can combine futures and other tools to optimize strategies but need to be equipped with a professional foreign - exchange management team [99].

Core Viewpoint - The entry of major financial institutions like Citigroup into cryptocurrency custody and payment services signals a shift towards mainstream adoption, but it may also indicate the emergence of structural bubbles within the market [1][3]. Group 1: Institutional Involvement - The market reacted positively to institutional adoption, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF reportedly attracting $88 billion in assets, suggesting a significant influx of capital into the cryptocurrency space [1]. - However, this institutional interest may lead to a transformation of original cryptocurrencies into financial products that lack the same freedoms and functionalities, akin to "Wall Street's Bitcoin NFTs" [3][4]. Group 2: Asset Transformation - The concept of "Bitcoin NFTs" highlights the difference between owning actual Bitcoin and holding a financial instrument that represents Bitcoin exposure, which is subject to regulatory constraints and trading hours [4][5]. - Approximately 130,000 Bitcoins, or 6.2% of the total supply, are locked in U.S. spot ETF vaults, indicating a significant shift in asset control from individual holders to a few financial giants [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The shift from on-chain activity to macro narratives as the primary drivers of market value represents a fundamental change in the risk model of the cryptocurrency market [6][7]. - The reliance on a few large institutions for market stability creates a fragile ecosystem, where coordinated selling by these entities could lead to a more severe market downturn than past retail-driven sell-offs [7]. Group 4: Ethereum's Challenges - Ethereum faces dual threats as its application value diminishes due to the rise of dedicated chains and Layer 2 solutions, while its narrative as a reserve asset is also under pressure [10][11]. - Over 50% of ETH is locked in staking contracts, creating artificial scarcity, but this narrative is fragile and could collapse if macro conditions change or institutions decide to take profits [10][11]. Group 5: Misunderstandings of Maturity - The comparison of Bitcoin's evolution to that of gold is misleading, as it overlooks Bitcoin's core value proposition as a decentralized, censorship-resistant digital cash system [12][13]. - The introduction of mechanisms like in-kind redemptions in ETFs does not resolve systemic risks associated with asset concentration and the potential for coordinated sell-offs by institutional investors [13]. Group 6: Conclusion - The current market environment, characterized by institutional involvement, may not represent a victory for cryptocurrency ideals but rather a process of co-opting and repackaging by traditional finance [14]. - Investors are urged to recognize the inherent risks and to prioritize holding original tokens that offer true ownership and control, especially in light of the potential for significant market corrections [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong market sentiment with soda ash futures rising over 5% in the night session, driven by strong policy expectations and macroeconomic narratives [1] - Institutional analysis indicates that the current market sentiment is exuberant, suggesting a sustained strong price expectation for soda ash [1] - The article notes a commodity resonance rally, implying that various commodities are experiencing upward price movements in tandem with soda ash [1]

Core Viewpoints - The current market valuation may not support a purely liquidity-driven rally, but unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China could act as catalysts for market sentiment [1] - Structural opportunities will be a key topic during the mid-year reporting season, while index opportunities may need to wait until late Q3 or Q4 [1] - The electrification process is accelerating globally, with a focus on the full industrial chain's monetization capabilities in the electrification and AI sectors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent market changes indicate that there is no shortage of money, with trading volumes reaching approximately 1.5 trillion yuan [2] - The market is poised for potential upward movement, contingent on three triggers: attractive valuations, strong current and future fundamental expectations [2][3] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile yet upward trend, supported by the influx of medium to long-term funds and favorable policies [7][11] Group 2: Sector Focus - Key investment themes include domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and sectors that have been underweighted by funds [5][7] - The technology sector is anticipated to regain market attention, particularly with the upcoming IPOs of tech companies and innovations in AI and military industries [1][6] - The focus on high-dividend assets and the technology sector, especially those related to AI capital expenditures, is expected to provide investment opportunities [16] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The market is currently experiencing a phase of structural improvement, but it is not yet at the level of a bull market [6][10] - The potential for a bull market is contingent on either a positive shift in earnings or policy direction by Q3 [10] - The overall economic recovery is expected to be driven by domestic consumption and export growth, with a cautious outlook on external risks [4][10]

Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is expected to experience short - term fluctuations. After a brief improvement in spot trading on Friday, the trading weakened over the weekend. In the short term, the spot and futures prices are expected to decline, while in the medium term, before entering the off - season of agricultural demand, urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3][4]. - The supply side of urea faces large pressure. The expansion of urea production capacity continues in 2025, and the daily output remains at a high level. Although some enterprises have maintenance plans, the overall supply is still abundant [25][30]. - The demand side has support from agricultural demand. Seasonal agricultural demand is strengthening, and the construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn. Industrial demand shows different trends, with the high - level operation of compound fertilizer production capacity utilization, a decline in melamine production compared with last year, and limited support from real - estate demand for panels [48][51][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Valuation: Price and Spread - **International Spot Prices**: The prices of small - particle urea in different regions have different trends. The low - end of China's bulk small - particle FOB price increased by $2/ton, and the high - end decreased by $4/ton. The prices in other regions such as the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and Brazil increased to varying degrees, while the CIF price in India remained the same as last week [2]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: After six consecutive days of weak trading, the domestic spot market improved significantly on Friday, but the trading weakened over the weekend. It is expected to experience a short - term decline and show an oscillating pattern in late April [3]. - **Futures**: Affected by the "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the United States, the equity market fluctuates widely. The futures price rebounded on Friday due to improved spot trading and short - term replenishment by traders, but is expected to decline in the short term and oscillate in the medium term [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report provides historical data charts of urea basis (including ZhengYuan, JinKai, etc.), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, but no specific analysis is given [8][12]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Production Capacity**: The expansion of urea production capacity continues in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 4270,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 3,460,000 tons. Some enterprises' new production capacity is expected to be put into operation before the 05 contract [25]. - **Maintenance Plan**: Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including Shandong Union Chemical, Shaanxi Weihe Coal Chemical, etc. Some maintenance has been postponed [29]. - **Output**: The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report provides historical data charts of daily output, capacity utilization, and the output of coal - based and gas - based urea [30][31]. - **Cost**: The raw material prices are relatively stable, and the cash - flow cost line of factories is around 1,364 yuan/ton. The report also provides the full - cost calculation of urea in different production processes [33]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report provides historical data charts of the cash - flow profit of fixed - bed devices and the production profit of different production processes [34][35]. - **Net Import (Export)**: The "Legal Inspection" policy remains strict, and urea exports remain extremely low. However, the current internal - external price difference is still large, and the theoretical export profit is high [40][42]. 3.3 Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Seasonal agricultural demand is strengthening, and different regions and crops have different demand patterns at different times. The construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn [48][51]. - **Industrial Demand**: The capacity utilization of compound fertilizer remains at a high level, the production of melamine has decreased compared with last year, and the real - estate demand for panels has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [57][59][60]. 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: As of April 16, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 906,200 tons, an increase of 72,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.70%. Due to weakened downstream industrial demand and a short - term gap in agricultural demand, the inventory is expected to continue to increase next week [3][66]. - **Port Inventory**: As of April 17, 2025 (week 16), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 112,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.88%. The overall port inventory decreased slightly [66]. 3.5 International Urea - **International Urea Prices**: The report provides historical data charts of FOB prices of large - particle urea in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and CFR prices in Brazil [71][72][73][74]. - **India's Urea Market**: The report provides information on India's urea production, import, inventory, demand, and balance sheets from fiscal year 2018 to 2023, as well as details of India's tendering [76][83].