菜油观点总 结 AAFC本月预估2025/26年度加拿大油菜籽产量为2,010万吨，较其7月的预估增加12.9%。结转库存较上月预估翻倍，预估为220万 吨。且中国对原产于加拿大的进口油菜籽实施临时反倾销措施，或影响其出口，对加菜籽价格带来一定压力。其它方面，印尼供应 端扰动风险增强，叠加马棕出口数据强劲，给棕榈带来上涨动力。美国环保署（EPA）近日发布关于小型炼油厂生物燃料豁免的最 新决策，市场预期部分义务或将转移至大型炼油厂，从而延续对生物燃料需求的推动，对美豆油需求或有所利好。国内方面，短期 重点关注 周一我的农产品网油菜籽开机率及各地区菜油粕库存量，中加及加美贸易争端走向 菜籽系产业日报 2025-08-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) | 9821 167 | -70 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) -7 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) | 2526 63 | ...

豆粕周报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 政策消息扰动市场 连粕震荡回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆11月合约涨15.5收于1058.25美分/蒲式耳， 涨幅1.49%；豆粕01合约跌49收于3088元/吨，跌幅1.56%； 华南豆粕现货跌30收于2950元/吨，跌幅1.01%；菜粕01合 约跌3收于2543元/吨，跌幅0.12%；广西菜粕现货涨20收于 255 ...

棕榈油周报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 美生柴豁免量不及预期 棕榈油或震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨53收于4531林吉特/吨，涨幅 1.18%；棕榈油01合约涨132收于9592元/吨，涨幅1.40%； 豆油01合约跌76收于8458元/吨，跌幅0.89%；菜油01合约 涨133收于9890元/吨，涨幅1.36%；CBOT美豆油主连涨1.98 收 ...

联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 8 月 22 日，宏观支撑和前期调整后压力释放，植物油盘面收涨。 豆油主力合约 Y2601 合约报收于 8458 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.67%，日涨仓 | | | | | 2813 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8142 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.52%，日增 | | | | | 仓 6604 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2601 合约收盘价 9592 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.97%，日增 | | | | | 仓 5514 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2605 报收于 9294 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.98%，日增仓 | | | | | 2237 手； | | | | | 菜籽油主力合约 OI2601 合约报收于 9890 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 1.01%，日增 | | | | | 仓 10817 手。 | | | | | 菜籽油次力合约 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年08月22日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆油 | ★☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | | | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 豆粕 | ★☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ ★☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★★★ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ☆☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ななな | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约价格增仓下跌，价格疲弱。今日中储粮网计划竞价销售4.58万吨，实际成交2.5万吨，成交率为54.8%，成交 均价为4119.3元/吨。短期国产大豆的竞价拍卖给市场带来供应压力。而需求端表现偏弱、因此价格被打压。国产大豆跟进口大 豆价差从低位回升。进口大豆方面美国农业部报告里面虽然大幅上调单产创历 ...

Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - Geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Iran and the stagnation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks are affecting the oil market, and short - term geopolitical risks remain uncertain. For precious metals, wait for Powell's speech and the progress of Russia - Ukraine talks to find a better entry point. In the base metals market, various metals show different trends based on supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors. Agricultural products are influenced by weather, policies, and international trade relations. Financial products like stocks and bonds are affected by geopolitical, monetary policy, and market sentiment factors [2][3][48] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 10 - contract up 0.94%. Sanctions on Iran and the stagnation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks led to a correction in the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing. It is recommended to hold a long straddle strategy of out - of - the - money options for hedging and then enter medium - term short positions after volatility increases [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils rose driven by the rebound in crude oil. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia increased, and the inventory in Fujairah decreased. The 8 - month arrival volume increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared with June, and FU warehouse receipts decreased by 7,000 tons to 73,710 tons. The high - low sulfur spread narrowed slightly [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market has stabilized. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia provides support. In China, the import arrival volume and refinery output have increased, and domestic gas is under pressure. After the decline of naphtha driven by crude oil, the cost advantage of propane is weakened. The market is expected to be in low - level oscillation, waiting for the realization of bearish expectations [23] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals oscillated. The Fed's meeting minutes showed that officials generally supported keeping rates unchanged, and the market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. With the progress of Russia - Ukraine talks, the upward momentum of gold is insufficient. It is necessary to wait patiently for a better entry point after a correction [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose after hitting an intraday low. The August manufacturing PMI in Europe and the US was better than expected and above the boom - bust line. The market is waiting for the interest - rate stance at the Jackson Hole meeting. Hold short positions above 79,000 yuan for Shanghai copper [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Downstream开工率 began to stabilize and rebound, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased. It is expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term [5] - **Zinc**: The supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals lead to a weak oscillation of Shanghai zinc. The SMM0 zinc has a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in domestic zinc social inventory. In the short term, it oscillates, and in the medium - term, short positions on rebounds are a major strategy [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of a rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for six consecutive times, but downstream acceptance of high - price goods is poor, and the supply is expected to increase [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin closed down. After the concentrated delivery on the third Wednesday, the 0 - 3 - month spread became a discount of $2. The inventory remains at a low level of 1,740 tons. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [11] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price of carbonate lithium oscillated, and the market was active in trading. Downstream material enterprises increased their inquiry enthusiasm. The total market inventory was basically flat at 142,000 tons. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and risk control should be done [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is affected by news of energy - consumption standards and small - furnace capacity elimination, but it has not been confirmed. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the improvement space is limited. The market is in oscillation, and there may be a correction if policy expectations cool down [13] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The price of N - type re -投料 was raised to 49,000 yuan/ton. In August, production increased significantly, but downstream demand growth was limited, and there was inventory pressure. The market is in a stage of oscillation adjustment supported by policy expectations [14] Building Materials - **Steel**: Night - trading steel prices oscillated weakly. The apparent demand for rebar increased, production decreased, and inventory continued to rise. The demand for hot - rolled coils improved, production increased, and inventory also increased. Iron - water production remained high, and the market faced negative - feedback pressure. The steel market is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the changes in the commodity - market trend [15] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore futures oscillated overnight. The global shipment was strong, and the domestic arrival volume increased, with port inventory rising. Terminal demand is weak, but short - term demand is supported by high iron - water production. There is an expectation of production reduction around the parade, and the downward pressure on the futures price may increase [16] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke prices oscillated downward. There is an expectation of production restriction in East - China coking plants. The seventh round of price increase has improved coking profits, and daily production has increased slightly. Coking coal prices also oscillated downward. The production of coking coal mines increased, and the spot - auction market had a slightly higher non - trading rate. Both are affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations and have large price fluctuations [17][18] Agriculture - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: In the next two weeks, the lack of rain in the US soybean - producing areas may challenge new - season crop growth. The global oil - strong trend may drive soybean crushing. In China, the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. Bullish factors are emerging, and soybean - meal prices can be cautiously bullish in the medium - long term [36] - **Edible Oils**: Overnight, US soybean oil prices rose sharply. Policy on bio - fuels is expected to have a structural adjustment. Indonesian palm - oil inventory decreased. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle. It is advisable to buy on dips for soybean and palm oils, with attention to risk control [37] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The supply - side variables in the overseas rapeseed market are decreasing, and the focus will shift to the demand side. The import of Australian rapeseed is a hot topic. The supply of rapeseed products is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the futures price is expected to rise [38] - **Corn**: The auction of imported corn by CGSGB continued, but the transaction rate was low. The low - price Xinjiang corn affected market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [40] Livestock and Poultry - **Pigs**: The pig - grain ratio fell below 6:1, and the government will conduct a 10,000 - ton frozen - pork purchase. This is expected to boost market sentiment, and the previous short - position strategy should be changed to a wait - and - see approach [41] - **Eggs**: Egg futures continued to fall and hit a new low, but still maintained a premium over the spot. Spot prices continued to fall in many places. The far - month contracts are strong due to the logic of capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the spot - price performance and the risk of short - covering rebounds [42] Textiles - **Cotton**: US cotton maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and its excellent - rate improved. Brazilian cotton harvesting progress was slow. Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, with weak short - term upward momentum. The downstream orders were weak, but there is an expectation of demand improvement in August. It is advisable to wait and see [43] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is mainly driven by cost. Consider long - position allocation in the medium - term. The long - term over - capacity of the bottle - chip industry limits the repair of processing margins. Attention should be paid to the implementation of petrochemical industry policies [32] Others - **Sugar**: Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The international market has sufficient supply, and US sugar is under pressure. In China, the import of syrup is low, and domestic sugar sales are fast. The 25/26 sugar - production in Guangxi is uncertain. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [44] - **Apple**: Apple futures oscillated. The remaining cold - storage inventory is small, and early - maturing apples are priced high but with average quality. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate. There are differences in production estimates, and it is advisable to wait and see [45] - **Wood and Pulp**: Wood futures oscillated. The overseas price has rebounded, and domestic supply may remain low. Pulp futures continued to fall, and the port inventory increased. Domestic demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and see or use an oscillation - range strategy for pulp [46][47] - **Stock Index**: The A - share market冲高回落, and small - cap stocks adjusted significantly. The trading volume was 2.46 trillion yuan. The performance of stock - index futures was divided. Global hedge funds are accelerating their entry into the Chinese stock market. Pay attention to Powell's speech at the central - bank meeting and macro - factors [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury - bond futures mostly rose, with the 30 - year contract up 0.34%. The short - term Shibor mostly declined. Treasury - bond prices are under pressure, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [49]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum highlighted the latest developments in the biofuel market, focusing on policy trends, production patterns, and innovations in trading tools, as well as key advancements in shipping decarbonization [1] Group 1: Market Developments - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group has established a comprehensive derivatives system covering the entire biofuel industry chain to meet the rapidly growing market demand [1] - The derivatives system includes futures and options products for raw materials such as corn, soybean oil, and European rapeseed oil, as well as fuel products like RBOB gasoline, ultra-low sulfur diesel, ethanol, and biodiesel [1] Group 2: Strategic Goals - The development of the biofuel market requires a balance among policy compliance, raw material sustainability, and cost control [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group aims to continuously improve its toolbox of derivatives and provide risk management solutions to support global energy transition and low-carbon goals [1] Group 3: Industry Impact - The innovation and development of the biofuel industry chain are providing strong momentum for green shipping and transportation decarbonization in the context of accelerating global climate action [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans decreased by 1% from the previous week. Driven by short-covering, CBOT soybean futures rebounded slightly but remained weak overall. The estimated inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of July reached a two-year high, but the market expected the export data at the beginning of August to improve, leading to a resonant rebound of Malaysian palm oil futures and domestic oils. Domestically, the soybean oil inventory continued to rise, but the increase in domestic exports alleviated the inventory pressure to some extent. Recently, the South American soybean premium has been rising continuously, combined with trade risk premiums, soybean oil continued to strengthen. The palm oil inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, continuing the pattern of weak supply and demand. Driven by the rebound of import costs, Dalian palm oil rebounded strongly. Regarding rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory continued to decline, and the uncertainty of China-Canada trade policies supported the rapeseed oil price, with rapeseed oil fluctuating strongly [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - As of the week ending August 1st, the commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.36 million tons, basically flat week-on-week, up 110,000 tons month-on-month, and up 200,000 tons year-on-year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.13 million tons, up 30,000 tons week-on-week, up 110,000 tons month-on-month, and flat year-on-year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 660,000 tons, basically flat week-on-week, down 40,000 tons month-on-month, and up 230,000 tons year-on-year; the palm oil inventory was 570,000 tons, down 30,000 tons week-on-week, up 40,000 tons month-on-month, and down 30,000 tons year-on-year [2]. - As of the week ending August 3rd, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with the market expectation of 69%, down from 70% in the previous week and up from 68% in the same period last year. The soybean flowering rate was 85%, up from 76% in the previous week, the same as 85% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 86% [2]. - Brokerage StoneX predicted that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous season due to increased planting area and crop yield. StoneX also expected the US soybean production in 2025 to reach 4.425 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre [2]. - Reuters survey showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July 2025 was expected to be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June; the production was expected to be 1.83 million tons, an increase of 8% from June; the export volume was expected to be 1.3 million tons, an increase of 3.2% from June [3]. - Brazil officially implemented a new biofuel blending standard on August 1st, increasing the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% (E30) and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% (B15) [4]. 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans decreased, and CBOT soybean futures rebounded slightly but remained weak. The estimated high inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of July was expected to improve in export data at the beginning of August, leading to a resonant rebound with domestic oils. Domestically, soybean oil inventory rose but was alleviated by exports, and soybean oil strengthened due to rising premiums and risk premiums. Palm oil inventory decreased, and Dalian palm oil rebounded strongly due to rising import costs. Rapeseed oil inventory declined, and the uncertainty of China-Canada trade policies supported the price, with rapeseed oil fluctuating strongly [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest information on the oilseeds and oils market including US soybean export sales, soybean crushing volume, usage of soybean oil in biofuel production, palm oil export volumes from Malaysia, and trade agreements related to Indonesian palm oil [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - From July 11 - 18, US 2024/2025 market - year soybean export sales net increase was 34.92 million tons, up significantly from the previous week and 4% higher than the four - week average, with market expectation of 10 - 30 million tons. US 2025/2026 market - year soybean export sales net increase was 42.95 million tons, within the market expectation of 10 - 60 million tons. US soybean export shipments were 49.96 million tons, up 65% from the previous week and 63% from the four - week average [1] - Before the USDA monthly crushing report, analysts estimated that US soybean crushing volume in June would be 196.6 million bushels, a 3.5% decrease from May and the lowest since February but a 7.2% increase from June 2024 and the largest June crushing volume in history. The estimated daily average crushing volume was 6.554 million bushels, the slowest daily progress since last September. The estimated US soybean oil inventory as of June 30 was 1.863 billion pounds, down 0.7% from the end of May and 12.3% from June 2024 [1] - The US Energy Information Administration reported that the usage of soybean oil in biofuel production in May increased to 1.025 billion pounds, up from 829 million pounds in April [1] - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports in July were 1,289,727 tons, a 6.7% decrease from June. AmSpec data showed a 9.6% decrease to 1,163,216 tons from June. AmSpec also revised Malaysia's July 1 - 25 palm oil exports to 914,924 tons [1] - An Indonesian minister said that the EU would give zero - tariff treatment to an annual export quota of 1 million tons of Indonesian crude palm oil when the free - trade agreement is approved. If the exports exceed 1 million tons, a 3% tariff will be imposed. The EU and Indonesia are expected to sign the agreement in September and get approval from their legislative bodies next year. The EU will later set an export quota for Indonesian palm kernel oil based on the previous year's shipments [1] - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association and the Indonesian Palm Oil Association signed a three - year memorandum of understanding to strengthen bilateral cooperation in the palm oil industry, including technology exchange, R & D, sustainable development, policy coordination, food security, and market information sharing [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various oilseeds and oils such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 25 - 31, 2025 are presented, showing price fluctuations during this period [2] Other Information - Information on precipitation in major producing countries, import soybean crushing profit on the futures market, and oil import profit are mentioned but no specific data is provided [1] - Information on oil basis, oilseeds and oils price spreads on the futures market, and protein meal basis are mentioned but no specific data is provided [3][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly, with short - term participation recommended due to large market fluctuations recently. The rapeseed oil market has intensified short - term fluctuations, and recently it has performed weaker than soybean and palm oils [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 9406 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2660 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 699.9 Canadian dollars/ton (up 2.6 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed was 5197 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) was 49 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), rapeseed meal (9 - 1) was 267 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 201338 lots (down 9445 lots), rapeseed meal was 468326 lots (down 15182 lots) [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was 15749 lots (up 2973 lots), rapeseed meal was 24840 lots (up 1665 lots) [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 3487 sheets (unchanged), rapeseed meal was 0 sheets (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9570 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2560 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil was 9610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Import cost of rapeseed: 4981.37 yuan/ton (up 20.15 yuan) [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 113 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan), rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 100 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8320 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8970 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2850 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2] - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1220 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed - palm oil was 570 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 290 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), annual forecast value of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 232 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 20 tons (up 5 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate: 14.93% (down 0.79%) [2] Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 34 tons (up 10 tons), import volume of rapeseed meal: 28.79 tons (up 4.13 tons) [2] - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 9.55 tons (up 0.3 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 1.9 tons [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 56.27 tons (down 2.18 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory: 35.13 tons (down 2.91 tons) [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 5.55 tons (down 0.05 tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory: 27 tons (down 1.2 tons) [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil pick - up volume: 2.91 tons (down 0.38 tons), weekly rapeseed meal pick - up volume: 2.32 tons (down 0.14 tons) [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons) [2] - Retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry: 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2] - Edible vegetable oil production: 440.4 tons (down 87 tons) [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 20 - day was 15.85% (up 0.2%), 60 - day was 16.72% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.71%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.76%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 20 - day was 10.9% (unchanged), 60 - day was 12.14% (up 0.03%) [2] Industry News - On July 25 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures rose. The market was caught between bullish biofuel factors and bearish good crop conditions. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed up 5.10 Canadian dollars at 700.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71%, but still at a high level in the same period [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The domestic oil mill operating rate is relatively high, soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory, and the future pig inventory is expected to decline. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the reduction and substitution of soybean meal, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, and the aquaculture peak season increases the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. But the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - High - frequency data shows that from July 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased while exports declined, which restricts palm oil prices. But the large increase in Indonesian exports and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. The inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, but the reduction in the operating rate of oil mills weakens the output pressure of rapeseed oil. The reduction in third - quarter rapeseed purchases eases the supply - side pressure [2] Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions announced by Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2]