1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oil and Fat Industry - Indonesia will implement the B50 biodiesel policy this year, increasing the palm oil blending ratio from 40% to 50%, strengthening the global vegetable oil demand in the biofuel field. Short - term BMD palm oil may still rise. In China, port palm oil inventory is at the second - highest level since 2022, with sufficient supply and weak demand, but import inversion supports the futures market. - Analysts expect the US soybean planting area in 2026 to increase to 84.7 million acres, with higher soybean inventories, which may suppress the soybean oil market. In China, the oil mill operating rate has decreased, and the soybean oil output has reduced, but the trading volume is light. - Affected by the Middle - East conflict and Indonesia's B50 policy, the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures mainly follow the international market and maintain a volatile adjustment pattern [1]. 2.2 Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures fell but had a monthly gain. The sugar price was dragged down by the adjustment of energy prices due to the situation in the Middle - East. Brazil has canceled the industrial product tax on diesel, and the sugar price may fluctuate with oil prices in the short term. In China, the beet sugar production is in line with expectations, and the cane sugar production exceeds expectations. The domestic sugar market has strong supply and weak demand, and the sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [2]. 2.3 Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures fell due to the expected increase in the US cotton planting area in 2026. In China, the upward space of cotton prices is restricted by the external market. The "Golden March" peak season is ending, the new orders of textile enterprises have decreased significantly, and the inventory - clearing rhythm has slowed down. However, the downstream product inventory is at a low level, which supports the cotton price. Future focus should be on downstream orders, new - year planting area, and weather [3]. 2.4 Red Date Industry - The red date market is in the off - season, with weak consumption and inventory pressure. The futures warehouse receipts registration has decreased year - on - year. The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price is expected to maintain a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas [4]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The Qingming Festival stocking was less than expected, and the apple shipment speed decreased. The performance of production areas was differentiated. The price of high - quality apples in Shaanxi was firm, while the ordinary apples in Shandong were under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and the short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas for the far - month contracts [5]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the northeast, the warming temperature increases the willingness of grain - holders to sell, but the limited remaining grain and the strong price - holding attitude of traders limit the decline. In North China, the price is stable as the grain - holders are reluctant to sell. The demand side has a weakening marginal demand in the north port, and the deep - processing enterprises have a low inventory and a slow procurement rhythm. The feed enterprises have rigid demand, and wheat substitution is increasing. The futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound slightly, but the policy grain supply and substitution limit the rebound space [8]. 2.7 Meal Industry - The USDA's report on the US soybean planting area was slightly lower than market expectations, and the US soybean futures rose slightly. In China, the soybean meal market has cooled down, and the spot trading volume has decreased. The overall inventory is not loose, but the market sentiment is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and soybean meal lacks effective support [10]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The pig price has shown a weak trend again. The second - fattening and end - of - month supply reduction have limited support for the price. The breeding side is still resistant, and there is no active capacity reduction. The futures price has fallen across the board, and the far - month contracts are more affected by the expected capacity pressure. The short - term price may be boosted by the second - fattening sentiment, but the high feed price and limited profit space for large pigs require further observation [12]. 2.9 Egg Industry - On the supply side, the number of old hens being culled is increasing slightly, and the overall egg supply is stable. On the demand side, the demand support weakens after the Qingming Festival stocking. The market inventory is at a certain level, and the egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock and a weak trend [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.22% to 9000 yuan, and the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.53% to 8668 yuan. The basis was 05 + 320, down 10 points. - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.65% to 9855 yuan, and the futures price of P2605 decreased by 0.64% to 9930 yuan. The basis was P2605 - 11, down 11 points. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.21% to 10282 yuan, and the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.07% to 9884 yuan. The basis was OI605 + 398, down 15 points [1]. 3.1.2 Inventory and Supply - Demand - Palm oil: The inventory in Chinese ports is at a high level, and the supply is sufficient. The production in Malaysia from March 1 - 25 decreased by 11.21% month - on - month. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the US soybean planting area to increase, and the domestic oil mill operating rate has decreased, with reduced output but light trading volume. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the Middle - East conflict and Indonesia's policy, the market sentiment is boosted [1]. 3.2 Sugar Industry 3.2.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of sugar 2605 decreased by 0.79% to 2388 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 decreased by 0.66% to 5431 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.55% to 5450 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming decreased by 0.56% to 5295 yuan/ton. The basis in Nanning increased by 33.33%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 11.21% [2]. 3.2.2 Industry Situation - The national sugar production decreased by 4.69% to 926 million tons, and the sales volume decreased by 27.39% to 345 million tons. The production in Guangxi decreased by 8.36% to 565.13 million tons, and the monthly sales volume increased by 20.16% to 162.23 million tons. The national sugar sales rate decreased by 23.72% to 37.30%, and the sales rate in Guangxi decreased by 24.60% to 35.25%. The national industrial inventory increased by 17.03% to 581 million tons [2]. 3.3 Cotton Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.65% to 15295 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 decreased by 0.64% to 15430 yuan/ton. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.21% to 16691 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.16% to 16820 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3.2 Industry Situation - The commercial inventory decreased by 100% to 0, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5% to 102.40 million tons, the import volume decreased by 19.0% to 16.65 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 9.8% to 47.10 million tons. The yarn inventory days decreased by 1.2% to 21.45 days, and the grey - cloth inventory days increased by 0.3% to 33.24 days. The textile enterprise's processing profit decreased by 1.3% to - 2255 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Red Date Industry 3.4.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of red date 2605 decreased by 0.28% to 8750 yuan/ton, the price of red date 2607 decreased by 0.39% to 8925 yuan/ton, and the price of red date 2609 decreased by 0.55% to 9110 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates decreased by 0.22% to 9060 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade red dates remained unchanged at 7900 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4.2 Industry Situation - The market is in the off - season, with weak consumption and inventory pressure. The futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts decreased by 0.09% to 4400 [4]. 3.5 Apple Industry 3.5.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.38% to 9826 yuan/ton, and the price of apple 2610 decreased by 0.23% to 8743 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price performance in different production areas is differentiated, with high - quality apples in Shaanxi being firm and ordinary apples in Shandong under pressure [5]. 3.5.2 Industry Situation - The Qingming Festival stocking was less than expected, and the apple shipment speed decreased. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.69% to 441.79 million tons [5]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.6.1 Price Changes - Corn: The price of corn 2605 in Jinzhou Port increased by 0.21% to 2351 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 9.38% to - 29 yuan/ton. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 0.29% to 2745 yuan, and the basis decreased by 3.96% to 218 yuan [8]. 3.6.2 Industry Situation - In the northeast, the supply and demand situation is affected by the temperature and the attitude of grain - holders. In North China, the price is stable due to the reluctance of grain - holders to sell. The demand side has different situations in different sectors [8]. 3.7 Meal Industry 3.7.1 Price Changes - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3240 yuan, and the futures price of M2605 decreased by 0.75% to 2915 yuan. The basis increased by 7.26% to 325 yuan. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.79% to 2520 yuan, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.91% to 2299 yuan. The basis increased by 0.45% to 221 yuan [10]. 3.7.2 Industry Situation - The USDA's report on the US soybean planting area affected the market. The domestic soybean meal market has cooled down, and the future supply pressure will increase [10]. 3.8 Pig Industry 3.8.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of the main contract of pigs decreased by 2.35% to 9770 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 7 spread increased by 9.43% to - 960 yuan/ton. - Spot: The prices in different regions had different changes, with the price in Shandong increasing by 50 yuan to 9900 yuan/ton [12]. 3.8.2 Industry Situation - The pig price is weak, and the capacity reduction is slow. The second - fattening sentiment may support the price, but the feed price is high [12]. 3.9 Egg Industry 3.9.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of egg 04 decreased by 2.11% to 3200 yuan/500KG, and the price of egg 05 decreased by 0.38% to 3440 yuan/500KG. - Spot: The egg price in the production area decreased by 2.72% to 3.35 yuan/jin [15]. 3.9.2 Industry Situation - The supply is stable, and the demand support weakens after the Qingming Festival stocking. The market inventory is at a certain level, and the egg price is expected to be weak [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, with the core driving force still in the overseas market. The core contradictions mainly include geopolitical trends in the Middle East, palm oil origin policies and exports, US biofuel policies, and the supply situation of oilseeds [1][2]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. As time enters the second quarter, the domestic oil supply tends to be loose, and the supply pressure of oils may increase [3]. - The international geopolitical conflict has not been completely resolved, with high - level crude oil and support from the international oil market, so the downside space of the oil sector is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Geopolitical factors**: The conflict between the US and Iran has led to concerns about the global fuel market supply, raising energy costs and strengthening the demand for biodiesel. The POGO spread has fallen to a deep negative range, stimulating industrial demand. The situation has also increased shipping and fertilizer costs, pushing up the future planting costs of oil crops [1]. - **Palm oil policies and exports**: Malaysia's palm oil has inventory pressure, while Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy change in late March further confirms the optimistic demand expectation for the second half of the year [2]. - **US biofuel policy**: The new regulations of the US Environmental Protection Agency have increased the renewable fuel obligation targets for 2026/27, providing medium - and long - term demand support for US soybean oil [2]. - **Oilseed supply**: The probability of the US and China reaching a soybean procurement agreement is increasing, and the global soybean and rapeseed harvest expectations are strong, so the upward momentum of oilseeds is limited [2]. - **Domestic oil supply and demand**: The supply of the three major domestic oils is sufficient, and the demand lacks clear positive drivers. The supply pressure may increase in the second quarter [3]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Recent strategy review**: The short - term market has more bullish sentiment and is mainly in a strong and volatile state. The price ranges for P2605, Y2605, and OI2605 are given. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term high - level shock, and long positions can take profits. Arbitrage can observe the weakening trend of the far - month rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads [26]. - **Base - difference, month - difference, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations**: The current base difference is considered to be in a short - term weak and volatile state. The OI5 - 9 positive spread is recommended. The far - month 09 rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm spreads are expected to weaken [26]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction**: The price ranges for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil are 8000 - 8900, 9000 - 10000, and 8700 - 11000 respectively, with corresponding volatilities and historical percentile levels [27]. - **Hedging strategies**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refiners, and oil mills according to their inventory and procurement situations [27]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Palm oil**: The prices and price changes of palm oil futures contracts, BMD palm oil, and spot prices in Guangzhou are provided, along with the POGO spread and the difference between international soybean oil and palm oil [28]. - **Soybean oil**: The prices and price changes of soybean oil futures contracts, CBOT soybean oil, and spot prices in Shandong are provided, along with the BOHO spread and the difference between domestic soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil [28]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The prices and price changes of rapeseed oil futures contracts, ICE Canadian rapeseed, and spot prices in East China are provided, along with the price of Brent crude oil and the difference between domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil [30]. - **Inter - month and inter - variety spreads**: The spreads of different contracts and varieties of oils are presented [30]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The US EPA has determined the renewable fuel standards for 2026 and 2027, increasing the blending volume of biomass - based diesel. Brazil's soybean harvest rate has accelerated, and the national import soybean port inventory is in a seasonal destocking trend. The cost of importing US soybeans is still high [31]. - **Negative information**: The commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils has slightly decreased. The expected strong growth in biofuel demand and increased fertilizer costs may lead US farmers to expand soybean planting area [32]. - **Spot trading information**: The trading volume of rapeseed oil and soybean oil has increased month - on - month but is slightly insufficient year - on - year. The trading volume of palm oil is weak [34]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data [37]. - High - frequency production and high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil [37]. - Origin weather information [37]. - MPOB report [37]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The oil market is in a strong and volatile state this week, with high - volatility in the crude oil market. The sentiment in the oil sector is bullish in the short - term. The oil market shows a Back structure, with the 5 - 9 spread strengthening. The main base difference of oils has weakened slightly [37][40][43]. - **Overseas market**: The overseas market is mainly affected by geopolitical factors. Crude oil fluctuates at a high level, and US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil are in a high - level consolidation state. The international soybean - palm spread has rebounded. The net position ratio of managed funds has rebounded, while commercial positions are still net short [48][50]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The POGO spread continues to decline, which may boost the enthusiasm for biodiesel blending. The BOHO spread continues to weaken, but it is expected to strengthen gradually, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [52]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking The origin's quotes are firm, and domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which restricts long - term ship purchases [54]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction Malaysia's palm oil production and exports in February were lower than expected, and the inventory was higher than expected. However, the export data in March has improved significantly, and the market is bullish due to the optimistic sentiment of Indonesia's B50 [56]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm oil**: The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased due to more ship purchases recently, suppressing the market price [57]. - **Soybean oil**: The supply is expected to increase in the second quarter, but there may be short - term supply shortages due to the arrival rhythm [57]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived, the supply may increase further in the future [57]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction The inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish. The overall terminal demand for oils is weak [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will lead to the return of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal to the domestic market, continuously restricting the market with long - term supply pressure. The rapeseed meal price has fluctuated and declined recently, with large short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to participate in the short - term [2]. - The rapeseed oil market also shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The domestic rapeseed oil spot market has a light purchasing atmosphere, and the high price suppresses demand. The expected increase in the later import volume of Canadian rapeseed adds long - term supply pressure. The rapeseed oil futures price has generally maintained a wide - range high - level shock recently, with increased short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate in the short - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9884 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal is 2299 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. The closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 726.3 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed is 5763 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil is 93 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of rapeseed meal is - 63 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 195,830 lots, down 3,815 lots; the open interest of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 541,727 lots, up 8,198 lots [2]. - **Net Long Positions of Top 20 Holders**: The net long positions of rapeseed oil of the top 20 futures holders is - 25,117 lots, down 3,034 lots; the net long positions of rapeseed meal of the top 20 futures holders is - 179,489 lots, down 12,714 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 765, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,520 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,331.25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5,325.9 yuan/ton, up 32.98 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 459 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the basis of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 221 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - **Substitute Spot Prices**: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 9,010 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,930 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,390 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 570 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 720 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.5 million tons, up 0.48 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - **Imports**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 6.96 million tons, down 5.12 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 20 million tons, down 5 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 18.25 million tons, down 8.25 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rate**: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 150,000 tons, down 25,000 tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 8.26%, up 2.13 percentage points [2]. - **Pressing Profit**: The pressing profit of imported rapeseed on the disk is 2 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 11,000 tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 23,000 tons, down 1,000 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 287,000 tons, up 17,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 63,800 tons, up 10,800 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 9,000 tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 236,000 tons, down 17,000 tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 16,200 tons, up 900 tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 28,400 tons, up 6,600 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly output of feed is 3,008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The cumulative catering revenue in February is 102.64 billion yuan, up 45.26 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 25.21%, up 2.85 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 25.21%, up 2.85 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 21.72%, up 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 21.73%, up 0.73 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 29.99%, down 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.42%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.32%, down 0.8 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 18.68%, down 0.2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On March 30 (Monday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher as the vegetable oil market gained momentum from the rise in crude oil. The most active May rapeseed futures contract rose 7.20 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 727.70 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As the South American soybean harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and the competitive advantage of Brazilian soybeans is good, which frustrates the market's export expectations for US soybeans. Before the USDA released the planting intention report, analysts expected that the spring soybean planting area in the United States would expand significantly due to the increase in fertilizer costs last week. However, the uncertainty of the US - Iran conflict still exists, and the macro - risk premium still supports the US soybean market [2]. - AAFC keeps the forecast of the ending inventory of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season unchanged at 2.76 million tons and reduces the inventory forecast for the 2026/27 season by 200,000 tons to 1.46 million tons. The new - season supply - demand structure is expected to tighten [2]. - The EPA sets the total biofuel compliance obligation for 2026 at 26.81 billion RINs and for 2027 at 27.02 billion RINs, and requires large - scale refiners to bear 70% of the exemption quota, which meets market expectations. The US - Iran conflict has intensified, and US officials revealed that Trump is considering taking military action to obtain Iranian uranium, causing international oil prices to rise again [2]. - The President of Indonesia said that the country will increase the palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel from 40% to 50% this year, strengthening the country's biodiesel demand expectation. High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in the first 25 days of March while exports increased significantly, and the end - of - month inventory is expected to continue to decline, supporting the palm oil market price [2]. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by My Agri - Net on Monday, the evolution of the Middle East situation, and the Indonesian biodiesel policy [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, and near - term strong and long - term weak. The US soybean futures price is driven by geopolitical conflicts and weather premiums, while the domestic soybean meal spot market is regionally differentiated with light trading. The market is waiting for the US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report, and the futures price is oscillating weakly [5]. - The palm oil market is affected by Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy. Although the futures price follows the external market to strengthen, the domestic spot market is under pressure from high inventory and inverted bean - palm spread, and there is a risk of a pull - back after the market sentiment is released [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the US soybean futures price is driven by the expansion of the Middle East conflict and the pre - sowing drought in major US agricultural regions. Domestically, the spot market is regionally differentiated with light trading, and the market is waiting for the planting intention report [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy stimulates the futures market, but the domestic spot market is affected by high inventory and inverted bean - palm spread, and there is a risk of a pull - back after the market sentiment is released [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Palm oil shows a short - term strong performance due to B50 news stimulation; for soybean oil, attention should be paid to the quarterly inventory and planting intention report [1] - Indonesia will officially promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy plan this year, which was previously put on hold due to technical and financial concerns but is being discussed for restart due to global energy supply disruptions [3][5] - The US EPA has finalized the 2026 and 2027 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) annual obligation volumes (RVOs), with the traditional biofuel production target remaining at 15 billion gallons, and the blending volume of biomass - based diesel increasing by nearly 60% [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: Palm oil主力 had a daily - session closing price with a 1.66% increase and a night - session closing price with a 0.75% increase; soybean oil主力 had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.30% and a night - session increase of 0.46%; rapeseed oil主力 had a daily - session increase of 0.14% and a night - session increase of 0.13%. The Malaysian palm oil主力 increased by 3.07% in the daily session and 0.59% in the night session, and CBOT soybean oil主力 increased by 1.47% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For palm oil主力, the trading volume was 501,201 lots with a change of 153,036, and the open interest was 280,149 lots with a decrease of 8,265; for soybean oil主力, the trading volume was 298,200 lots with a change of 96,747, and the open interest was 498,900 lots with a decrease of 38,768; for rapeseed oil主力, the trading volume was 207,805 lots with a change of 60,479, and the open interest was 199,645 lots with a decrease of 13,357 [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,780 yuan/ton with a price change of 130 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 9,020 yuan/ton with no price change; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,150 yuan/ton with no price change; the FOB offshore price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,190 US dollars/ton with a price change of 5 US dollars/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 150 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 306 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 259 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The futures price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was - 39 yuan/ton; the futures price spread between soybean oil and palm oil was - 1,216 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 30 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 40 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 98 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from March 1 - 20 was estimated to increase by 0.92%, with a decrease of 3.61% in the Malay Peninsula, an increase of 5.59% in Sabah, an increase of 9.87% in Sarawak, and an increase of 6.67% in East Malaysia [2] - The US EPA finalized the 2026 and 2027 RFS annual obligation volumes, with the traditional biofuel production target remaining at 15 billion gallons, and the blending volume of biomass - based diesel increasing by nearly 60% to between 5 and 5.7 billion gallons per year [6] - As of March 28, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 74.3%, compared with 67.7% last week, 81.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 72.4% [7] - Iran plans to implement stricter access and toll systems for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz [7] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil shows a short - term strong performance due to B50 news [2][4]. - Soybean oil investors should focus on the quarterly inventory and planting intention reports [2][4]. - Soybean meal is in an adjustment and oscillation state, waiting for the USDA report [2][12]. - Soybean No. 1 is in a rebound and oscillation state [2][12]. - Corn investors should pay attention to policy auctions [2][15]. - Sugar is in a strong - oscillating state [2][18]. - The domestic cotton market lacks new driving forces [2][22]. - Wait for opportunities to short eggs at high prices in the far - month contracts [2][27]. - The de - stocking of pigs is less than expected, and the price center continues to move down [2][30]. - Peanut investors should focus on oil mill purchases [2][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,930 yuan/ton with a 1.66% increase, and the night - session closing price was 10,004 yuan/ton with a 0.75% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,714 yuan/ton with a 0.30% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,754 yuan/ton with a 0.46% increase [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's palm oil production from March 1 - 20 increased by 0.92%. Indonesia plans to advance the B50 biodiesel blending policy this year. The US EPA determined the 2026 and 2027 renewable fuel standard annual obligation volumes, increasing the blending volume of biomass - based diesel [5][6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean No. 1 2605's daily - session closing price was 4574 yuan/ton with a 0.13% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 4611 yuan/ton with a 0.96% increase. DCE soybean meal 2605's daily - session closing price was 2937 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2921 yuan/ton with a 0.54% decrease [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 30, CBOT soybeans were in a narrow - range oscillation. The US Department of Agriculture will release the planting intention report and quarterly inventory report. Analysts expect the US soybean planting area to increase to 85.55 million acres in 2026, and the March 1 soybean inventory to be 2.067 billion bushels [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean No. 1 have a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2605 was 2,346 yuan/ton with a 0.93% decrease, and the night - session closing price remained unchanged. The closing price of C2607 was 2,366 yuan/ton with a 0.88% decrease, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.04% [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of northern corn shipped to ports decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in the northeast and north China was stable with a slight decline [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [17]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 15.84 cents/pound with a 0.09 increase. The mainstream spot price was 5460 yuan/ton with a 10 increase [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of March 15, India's sugar production in the 25/26 season increased by 10% year - on - year. China imported 520,000 tons of sugar from January - February. The ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 122,000 tons in the 25/26 season [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2605's daily - session closing price was 15,385 yuan/ton with a 0.06% decrease, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.13%. CY2605's daily - session closing price was 21,515 yuan/ton with a 0.37% increase, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.40% [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the spot basis was generally stable. The ICE cotton futures rose nearly 1% [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [24]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2604 was 3,269 yuan/500 kg with a 3.57% decrease, and the closing price of egg 2605 was 3,453 yuan/500 kg with a 1.54% decrease [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 9380 yuan/ton with a 50 decrease, the Sichuan spot price was 9200 yuan/ton with a 150 decrease, and the Guangdong spot price remained unchanged at 10160 yuan/ton [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is - 1 [32]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of PK604 was 8,068 yuan/ton with a 0.64% decrease, and the closing price of PK605 was 8,120 yuan/ton with a 0.61% decrease [34]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The peanut market in Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong had different degrees of weakening in price and slow trading [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current price trend of oils and fats mainly depends on the US - Iran conflict. Before the end of the US - Iran incident, crude oil prices remain high, and there is an expectation that Indonesia will tighten palm oil exports. The report maintains a bullish view on oils and fats in the medium term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: The US EPA set the total biofuel compliance obligation at 26.81 billion RINs in 2026 and 27.02 billion RINs in 2027, with large refiners bearing 70% of the exemption quota. Indonesia's president stated that coal, crude palm oil and its derivative producers cannot export before meeting domestic demand. The Indonesian Energy Ministry is considering restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in mid - year. In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, down 490,000 tons month - on - month and up 860,000 tons year - on - year. In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, down 300,000 tons month - on - month and up 90,000 tons year - on - year; exports were 1.13 million tons, down 330,000 tons month - on - month and up 130,000 tons year - on - year; inventory was 2.7 million tons, down 120,000 tons month - on - month and up 1.19 million tons year - on - year. As of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, up 120,000 tons month - on - month and basically the same year - on - year. In the week of March 20, the inventory of three major oils in domestic samples was 1.95 million tons, down 95,000 tons year - on - year [11]. - **View Summary**: The current price trend of oils and fats mainly depends on the US - Iran incident. Before its end, crude oil prices are high, and there is an expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports. The medium - term view is bullish on oils and fats [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis for Y is 05 + 282 yuan/ton, P is 05 - 118 yuan/ton, and OI is 05 + 473 yuan/ton. Palm oil import profit is - 555 yuan/ton, and the biodiesel spread is at a medium level. Malaysia is in a seasonal production decline with falling inventory. The US - Iran incident continues, and the vegetable oil inventories in China and India are low. The overall view is to maintain a bullish stance on oils and fats in the medium term [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy on dips. For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides supply - demand balance sheets for Malaysian palm oil, Indonesian palm oil, global soybean oil, and global rapeseed oil, including data on beginning inventory, production, imports, exports, consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year changes [14][15][16][17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, as well as the spreads between different contracts, including the basis of palm oil May contracts, Malaysian palm oil basis, basis of soybean oil May contracts, basis of rapeseed oil May contracts, the spread between soybean oil May and palm oil May contracts, the spread between palm oil 5 - 9 contracts, the spread between soybean oil 5 - 9 contracts, and the spread between rapeseed oil 5 - 9 contracts [20][21][24][26][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - The report shows charts of the monthly production and exports of Malaysian palm oil, the production and exports of Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival of soybeans, soybean port inventory, monthly imports of rapeseed, and monthly imports of rapeseed oil [32][33][35][36]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Total Inventory**: Charts show the total inventory of three major domestic oils and the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India [40]. - **Palm Oil**: Charts display the near - month import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil [42]. - **Soybean Oil**: Charts show the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills [44]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Charts present the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil [46]. - **Palm Oil in Producing Areas**: Charts show the inventory of Malaysian palm oil and Indonesian palm oil [49]. 3.5 Cost Side - **Palm Oil**: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [52]. - **Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed**: Charts display the near - month shipping import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed [55]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Transactions**: Charts show the cumulative transactions of palm oil and the annual cumulative transactions of soybean oil [60]. - **Biodiesel Profit**: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [63].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core View - The price of palm oil is affected by oil price fluctuations and is expected to remain volatile at a high level. The soybean-driven factors for soybean oil are limited, and attention should be paid to the release of RVO [1]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East supports oil prices, which in turn boosts the demand for crude palm oil in the biofuel industry, providing support for BMD crude palm oil futures. The support level for BMD crude palm oil futures is estimated to be 4,454 ringgit per ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract during the day session was 9,614 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.09%, and 9,648 yuan/ton at night, with a night increase of 0.35%. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract during the day session was 8,646 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.12%, and 8,660 yuan/ton at night, with a night increase of 0.16%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil main contract during the day session was 9,840 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.37%, and 9,844 yuan/ton at night, with a night increase of 0.04%. The closing price of the Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,581 ringgit/ton, with a daily increase of 1.89%, and 4,597 ringgit/ton at night, with a night increase of 0.31%. The closing price of the CBOT soybean oil main contract was 67.85 cents/pound, with a daily increase of 1.12% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the palm oil main contract decreased by 49,396 lots to 321,996 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,170 lots to 279,944 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main contract decreased by 24,867 lots to 185,973 lots, and the open interest decreased by 9,356 lots to 545,392 lots. The trading volume of the rapeseed oil main contract decreased by 34,893 lots to 161,645 lots, and the open interest increased by 1,535 lots to 218,416 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 9,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,175 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 15 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 36 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 374 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 310 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 226 yuan/ton, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts was - 968 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 4 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 58 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 102 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From March 1 - 25, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.74% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.28% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 11.21% month - on - month [2]. - CBOT soybean futures rose slightly. Market participants are waiting for announcements related to biofuels, closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East and the outlook for US soybean demand. The export demand outlook for US soybeans is uncertain. Analysts are cautious due to the upcoming record - breaking harvest in Brazil. Traders are concerned about possible adjustments to US biofuel targets during a White House event on Friday and the USDA's planting area forecast next Wednesday. The USDA's export sales report showed that in the week ended March 19, US soybean export sales increased by 124% week - on - week and 89% compared to the four - week average, with net sales to the Chinese mainland of 26.3 tons [4]. - The Rural Economic Research Institute of Paraná, Brazil (Deral) expects the soybean crop output in the 2025/26 season in the state to be 21.89 million tons, lower than the February estimate of 22.12 million tons. The output of the second - season corn crop in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 17.54 million tons, slightly higher than the February estimate of 17.50 million tons, and the output of the first - season corn crop is expected to be 3.80 million tons, higher than the February estimate of 3.60 million tons [5]. - Analysis institutions expect the average soybean planting area in the US in 2026 to be 85.549 million acres, higher than last year's 81.215 million acres and the USDA's forecast of 85 million acres. The USDA will release the 2026 planting intention report at 0:00 on April 1, Beijing time [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0 [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views - Palm oil: Oil price disturbances continue, and it operates in a high - level shock [2]. - Soybean oil: There is little driving force from the soybean system, and attention is paid to the release of RVO [2]. - Soybean meal: It adjusts and fluctuates, waiting for new news [2]. - Soybean: The auction of state - reserved soybeans had a fair transaction volume, and the market adjusted and fluctuated [2]. - Corn: It operates in a shock [2]. - Sugar: It fluctuates upwards [2]. - Cotton: Attention is paid to the impact of external markets [2]. - Eggs: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts [2]. - Pigs: The weight reduction is less than expected, and the central price continues to decline [2]. - Peanuts: Attention is paid to the purchases by oil mills [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 9,614 yuan/ton with a 1.09% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,648 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase. Soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,646 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,660 yuan/ton with a 0.16% increase. There were also data on trading volume, positions, spot prices, basis, and price spreads [4]. - **News**: From March 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased. The conflict in the Middle East supported oil prices, which in turn supported BMD crude palm oil. CBOT soybean futures rose slightly, and market participants were waiting for bio - fuel announcements, concerned about the Middle East situation and US soybean demand prospects [5][7]. Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean 2605's closing price (day session) was 4627 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase, and the night - session closing price was 4591 yuan/ton with a 0.54% decrease. DCE soybean meal 2605's closing price (day session) was 2952 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2937 yuan/ton with a 0.47% decrease. There were also data on spot prices, basis, trading volume, and inventory [11]. - **News**: As of March 19, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans in the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons increased. The market was evaluating China's demand prospects, and was also waiting for the announcement of revised US bio - fuel targets and the USDA's sowing intention report [13]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of C2605 was 2,376 yuan/ton with a 0.08% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,365 yuan/ton with a 0.46% decrease. The closing price of C2607 was 2,392 yuan/ton with a 0.21% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,382 yuan/ton with a 0.42% decrease. There were also data on trading volume, positions, spot prices, basis, and price spreads [15]. - **News**: The prices of northern corn at ports and in Guangdong decreased, and the prices in the Northeast and North China fluctuated [16]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 15.87 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5450 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5463 yuan/ton. There were also data on price spreads and basis [18]. - **News**: In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, India's sugar production increased, China's sugar imports increased, and the production in Guangxi decreased. CAOC estimated China's sugar production, consumption, and imports. ISO estimated a global sugar supply surplus. Brazil, India, and Thailand also had relevant sugar production data [18][19]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of CF2605 was 15,420 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase, and the night - session closing price was 15355 yuan/ton with a 0.42% decrease. The closing price of CY2605 was 21,640 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 21495 yuan/ton with a 0.67% decrease. There were also data on trading volume, positions, spot prices, and price spreads [22]. - **News**: The cotton spot trading was cold, the cotton yarn market was average, and the all - cotton grey fabric market's trading atmosphere weakened. ICE cotton futures rose, and the market was concerned about the USDA's planting area intention report [23][24]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of egg 2604 was 3,418 yuan/500 kilograms with a 2.61% increase, and the closing price of egg 2605 was 3,512 yuan/500 kilograms with a 3.02% increase. There were also data on price spreads, spot prices, and related industrial chain data [27]. Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan spot price was 9530 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 10160 yuan/ton. The closing price of pig 2605 was 9835 yuan/ton, the closing price of pig 2607 was 11250 yuan/ton, and the closing price of pig 2609 was 12540 yuan/ton. There were also data on trading volume, positions, price spreads, and basis [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,000 yuan/ton, the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,500 yuan/ton, etc. The closing price of PK604 was 8,168 yuan/ton with a 0.44% increase, and the closing price of PK605 was 8,258 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase. There were also data on trading volume, positions, spot prices, basis, and price spreads [34]. - **News**: In the spot market, the peanut trading in different regions had different situations, with some regions having stable prices and some having slight changes in trading volume [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term oil and fat market is mainly driven by external crude oil. Attention should be paid to the progress of US biofuel policy and international crude oil price trends. The expected improvement of bilateral relations significantly boosts market risk appetite and US soybean export procurement expectations. The US biofuel policy may be finalized at the end of March. Indonesia may raise palm oil export taxes in April and accelerate its B50 biodiesel mandatory blending plan. The continuous Middle - East conflict supports oil prices and the demand outlook for biofuel raw materials, keeping the oil and fat sector at a high level, and a bull spread option can be considered. If the macro - situation cools down, with the seasonal increase in palm oil production in the producing areas, the increase in future imported soybean arrivals, and the possible suppression of demand due to weak economic growth and Middle - East situation uncertainties, oil and fat prices will回调 from high levels, and there is an opportunity for the soybean - palm oil price spread to widen [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Quotes Review**: Dongguan's third - grade rapeseed oil traders offer quotes: 6 - 9 months, third - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 100, first - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 300. East China's third - grade rapeseed oil in March: OI2605 + 520. East China's soybean oil basis quotes: first - grade soybean oil, spot: Y05 + 320; far - month price: y2605 + 250 (5 - 6 months); Y2609 + 240 (5 - 7 months); y2609 + 250 (6 - 9 months). Third - grade soybean oil: 05 + 270, degummed soybean oil in April: 05 + 100. A Guangdong oil factory's palm oil basis quotes are stable: imported 24 - degree P2605 + 30, national standard 24 - degree P2605 + 80, refined 24 - degree P2605 + 230, 18 - degree P2605 + 170 [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Bull spread options can be considered. If the macro - situation cools down, there is an opportunity for the soybean - palm oil price spread to widen [8] 3.2行业要闻 - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: As of March 25, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports is about 8 million tons, compared with 6.8 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7.5 million tons. The cumulative arrivals this month are 5.7 million tons. In March 2026, the imported soybean arrivals are 7.1 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons compared with the forecast of 5.2 million tons last month (a month - on - month change of 36.17%), and an increase of 1.9 million tons compared with 5.1 million tons in the same period last year (a year - on - year change of 37.61%) [9] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From March 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 11.21% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 9.74% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.28% month - on - month [10] 3.3数据概览 - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 are 1,414,990 tons, a 38.4% increase compared with 1,022,673 tons from February 1 - 25. Exports to China are 90,400 tons, an increase of 38,400 tons compared with 52,000 tons in the same period last month. According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 are 1,389,549 tons, a 50.6% increase compared with 922,649 tons from February 1 - 25 [17] - **Australian Rapeseed Production**: Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to reach the second - highest in history. The March quarterly report of ABARES raised the rapeseed production forecast by 450,000 tons to 7.7 million tons [17]