Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower amid cautious trading ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with the Dow Jones down 125.18 points (0.27%) at 45758.27, the Nasdaq down 14.79 points (0.07%) at 22333.96, and the S&P 500 down 8.49 points (0.13%) at 6606.79 [2] - Most popular Chinese stocks rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 1.76%, NIO rising over 8%, Baidu over 7%, JD.com and iQIYI over 3%, and Alibaba over 2% [2] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for October delivery rose by $1.22 to $64.52 per barrel (1.93% increase), while November Brent crude oil futures increased by $1.03 to $68.47 per barrel (1.53% increase) [2] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.31% to $3730.50 per ounce, reaching an intraday high of $3739.90, marking a historical peak [2] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week is 96.1%, with a 3.9% chance of a 50 basis point cut [5][6] - Recent economic data, including stronger-than-expected retail sales in August, has not significantly altered market expectations for a rate cut [6] Oil Market Dynamics - Domestic crude oil futures saw a slight increase of 1.15%, closing at 493.6 yuan per barrel, driven by optimistic market sentiment due to geopolitical tensions and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [8] - Geopolitical risks, including ongoing conflicts and potential sanctions, are contributing to short-term price support in the oil market [9] - Analysts suggest that the current oil price rebound is a corrective move following a decline in August, with ongoing OPEC+ production increases and global economic concerns creating a complex market environment [9][10] Long-term Oil Price Outlook - Key factors to monitor for the long-term oil price trajectory include OPEC+ production levels, U.S. shale oil output, economic downturn risks, and potential fiscal policy changes in China [10] - The expectation is for oil prices to continue a corrective rebound in the short term, but to face downward pressure later in the year due to inventory accumulation, with a potential rise in 2026 as global inflation increases [10]