Core Viewpoint - Recent significant increases in both domestic and international crude oil prices are primarily driven by new sanctions imposed by the US and EU on Russia, the emergence of new geopolitical events, and an overly pessimistic outlook on demand during mid-year [5][10][11]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of October 23, Brent crude oil prices rose from $60.07 per barrel on October 20 to $64.7 per barrel, an increase of approximately $4.7 per barrel (7.3%) [6]. - Domestic crude oil prices also saw a notable increase, rising from 430 yuan per barrel on October 17 to around 460 yuan per barrel, an increase of about 30 yuan per barrel (6.5%), marking the largest single-day increase in nearly three months [6]. Group 2: Reasons for Price Increase - The direct cause of the recent price surge is the large-scale new sanctions imposed by the US and EU on Russia, particularly targeting Russian oil companies and their subsidiaries, which account for over 50% of Russia's total exports [11]. - New geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Venezuela, have also contributed to market dynamics, with the US considering military actions and Venezuela mobilizing its forces [16]. - Increased demand from the US, driven by the recent price drop, has led to a strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) replenishment, with the US Energy Department announcing an increase of 1 million barrels [18][24]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent price increases, fundamental pressures remain significant, with a structural oversupply still evident in the market. Even extreme scenarios like supply disruptions from Venezuela or Russia may not significantly impact the overall supply balance [18][20]. - The ongoing sanctions from the US and EU are expected to affect trade flows, potentially leading to a temporary demand shock [21]. - The overall demand outlook has been adjusted positively, with institutions like the IMF and IEA revising their forecasts for demand growth, indicating resilience in demand from developing countries, particularly China [24].