1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, have a significant impact on the energy and chemical markets, causing sharp fluctuations in oil prices and increasing market uncertainty [1][2][3][5][6] - The supply and demand of various energy and chemical products are affected by multiple factors such as inventory changes, production capacity adjustments, and terminal demand, resulting in different price trends [1][2][3][5][6] - The cost side is the main focus of the market, and the volatility of crude oil prices will lead to resonance in the prices of related products [1][2][3][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell sharply. WTI April contract closed down $11.32 to $83.45/barrel, a decline of 11.94%. Brent May contract closed down $11.16 to $87.8/barrel, a decline of 11.28%. SC2604 closed at 642 yuan/barrel, down 90.4 yuan/barrel, a decline of 12.34%. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is tense, and the inventory of US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate oil has decreased. China's crude oil imports from January to February increased by 15.8% year-on-year. Oil prices are expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The high-sulfur supply interruption risk has increased, and the Asian low-sulfur market is expected to remain strong. Geopolitical changes will increase market volatility, and investors are advised to control risks [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The geopolitical conflict has restricted the procurement channels of heavy crude oil by local refineries, and the raw material cost has risen. However, the terminal demand has not yet started, and the social inventory is digested slowly. The asphalt market is in a game between "strong cost" and "weak demand", and the increase may be less than that of other oil products [2] - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, the polyester contracts fell. The supply of chemical products has decreased, and the cost side is the main focus of the market. The polyester chain varieties will oscillate with the cost side in the short term, and investors can focus on factors such as the passage efficiency of the strait, the start-up situation of domestic suppliers, and the downstream negative feedback [2][3] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the rubber contracts showed different trends. The domestic and foreign rubber is in the low-yield season, and the supply reduction expectation of butadiene has increased. The price of butadiene and its downstream products has continued to rise. The rubber price is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to the external macro atmosphere and the development of the Middle East geopolitical situation [3] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the methanol price showed a certain trend. The domestic maintenance devices are running stably, and the supply is in a high-level oscillation. The Iranian supply overseas remains low. The demand is at a low level. The arrival volume in March will continue to decline, which will support the price, but the low load of MTO devices will put pressure on inventory reduction. The market is expected to oscillate, and investors are advised to control risks [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the polyolefin prices showed a certain trend. The upstream device maintenance plan has increased, and the subsequent production is expected to decrease. The downstream factory start-up load has increased, and the demand still has room for growth. The market is in the process of inventory reduction, and the fundamental pressure is not great. The short-term geopolitical risk has increased the volatility, and investors should pay attention to the changes in the US-Iran situation and control risks [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the PVC market price in East, North, and South China has been significantly reduced. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene method, but the profit of the calcium carbide method has increased rapidly. The subsequent supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand will gradually recover. The overall inventory is in the process of reduction, and the PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Investors should pay attention to the downstream resumption progress, the implementation of export orders, and the Iranian situation [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on March 10, 2026, as well as the comparison data of the previous day. These data can help investors understand the market price relationship between the spot and futures of different varieties [7] 3.3 Market News - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Commander warned that any ships related to Iran's hostile forces are not allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [11] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) slightly raised its forecast for U.S. oil production in 2026 to 1,361 million barrels per day and in 2027 to 1,383 million barrels per day. The global oil production forecast for 2026 is 107 million barrels per day, and for 2027 is 109.6 million barrels per day. The global oil demand forecast for 2026 is 105.2 million barrels per day, and for 2027 is 106.6 million barrels per day [11] - The American Petroleum Institute (API) data shows that the inventories of U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate oil decreased last week. China's crude oil imports in February were 48.045 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 96.934 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, which helps investors understand the long-term price trends of different varieties [14][16][18][20][21][23][24][25][27][28] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, which helps investors understand the price relationship between the spot and futures of different varieties [29][30][33][34][35][36][37] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, which helps investors understand the price differences between different contract periods of different varieties [39][40][41][42][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, which helps investors understand the price relationships between different varieties [54][56][57][59] - **Production Profits**: The report shows the production profits and processing fees of various energy and chemical products, which helps investors understand the profitability of different varieties [60][61][62] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the research team members of Everbright Futures' energy and chemical research, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director, and analysts for different product categories, and briefly describes their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [66][67][68][69]