Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical news is volatile, causing significant price fluctuations in oil, but the overall trend is upward. Attention should be paid to the rhythm [1][2]. - High - and low - sulfur fuel oils are supported by the cost of crude oil and a tightening supply, and are expected to remain at high levels. However, the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - With the increase in domestic temperature, the demand for asphalt is gradually recovering. It is expected that asphalt prices will be strong, but it is necessary to be wary of the short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends [2][3]. - The polyester industry chain fluctuates with the cost side. The market is waiting for further developments in the situation. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - Natural rubber and butadiene rubber show different trends. The price of natural rubber is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly under geopolitical influence [3][5]. - The inventory of methanol is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [5]. - The supply of polyolefins is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - PVC exports will supplement domestic demand. The overall short - selling pressure remains strong, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI May contract closed down $1.50 to $101.38 per barrel, a 1.46% decline; Brent May contract closed up $5.57 to $118.35 per barrel, a 4.94% increase; SC2605 closed at 693.9 yuan per barrel, down 55.4 yuan per barrel, a 7.39% decline. Geopolitical news is volatile, and the overall price center is rising. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 closed down 3.79% at 4446 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 4.11% at 5159 yuan per ton. Geopolitical conflicts have limited direct impact on low - sulfur fuel oil supply, but factors such as the increase in overseas diesel cracking and freight rates have affected the supply. It is expected to remain at a high level, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 closed down 1.53% at 4512 yuan per ton. With the increase in temperature, demand is gradually recovering. It is expected that the overall demand will increase in April, and prices are expected to be strong, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2][3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6684 yuan per ton, down 1.24%; EG2605 closed at 5218 yuan per ton, down 2.63%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. The industrial chain has different situations, and it fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 195 yuan per ton to 16345 yuan per ton; NR fell 240 yuan per ton to 13605 yuan per ton; BR fell 375 yuan per ton to 17350 yuan per ton. The production of natural rubber in Thailand in 2025 increased by 0.6% to 4.84 million tons. The overseas production area is in a low - yield period, and domestic production areas are gradually starting to harvest. The price is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 3365 yuan per ton. The MTO arrival volume is at a low level, and the inventory is starting to decline. The supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases, and the Iranian situation is unclear [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 9000 - 9300 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the prices in East, North, and South China markets decreased. PVC exports will supplement domestic demand, and the overall short - selling pressure remains strong. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Market News - Iran's President Pezeshkiyan reiterated Tehran's willingness to end the war, but on certain conditions. Even if the conflict ends quickly, it will take weeks or months to restore the global energy transportation system [8]. - OPEC's crude oil production in March dropped to the lowest level since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic in June 2020. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels. The U.S. has lifted sanctions on Russian crude oil and promised to release strategic reserves, but these measures can only make up for the supply gap in a limited time [8]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of multiple main contracts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, and others, covering the time range from 2022 to 2026 [10][13][16][19][22][24][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report presents basis trend charts of multiple main contracts, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [27][31][33]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows spread trend charts of multiple inter - period contracts, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [36][38][42][44][46][48]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides spread and ratio trend charts of multiple inter - variety contracts, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [51][54][56][58]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows production profit and processing fee trend charts of multiple products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [60][61]. Team Member Introduction - **Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute**: Zhong Meiyan, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and providing risk management and investment strategies [65]. - **Director of Energy and Chemical Research**: Du Bingqin, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [66]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, who has won multiple awards, is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [67]. - **Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, has passed the CFA Level 3 exam and combines financial theory with industrial operations [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. - For urea, suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. - For rubber, suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. - For polyethylene, wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. - For PX, although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 22.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 2.94%, at 740.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 175.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.79%, at 4446.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 221.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.11%, at 5159.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 159.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3229 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 104 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, Shandong, Henan, and Northeast China had no price changes; Hubei decreased by 10 yuan/ton; Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi increased by 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 8 yuan/ton, reported at 1874 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene was strong in the spot market due to import demand from Japan and South Korea. As of March 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 69.26%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 1.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.10%, down 0.07 percentage points from last week and 5.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders declined, and the tire inventory pressure increased. As of March 22, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.36 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.3%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a decrease of 1% [10][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 198 yuan, reported at 5353 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5220 (- 230) yuan/ton, the basis was - 133 (- 32) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 106 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.9%, up 0.8% month - on - month; the calcium carbide method was 85.2%, up 0.5% month - on - month; the ethylene method was 70.7%, up 1.5% month - on - month. The overall downstream operating rate was 46%, up 4.3% month - on - month. The in - plant inventory was 339,000 tons (- 27,000 tons), and the social inventory was 1.374 million tons (+ 3,000 tons) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. 3.6 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 8940 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 8790 yuan/ton, with no change. The pure benzene basis was 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 272 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the closing price of the styrene active contract was 10597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 192 yuan/ton; the basis was 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.5 yuan/ton; the EB non - integrated plant profit was - 268.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.95%, a decrease of 0.51%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 168,400 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.67%, a decrease of 0.27%. The PS operating rate was 51.40%, a decrease of 0.20%, the EPS operating rate was 63.27%, an increase of 2.27%, and the ABS operating rate was 62.60%, a decrease of 4.50% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton. The basis was 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 587,900 tons, an increase of 19,600 tons month - on - month, and the trader inventory was 56,300 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% month - on - month. The LL5 - 9 spread was 149 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 9103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 197 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 499,700 tons, a decrease of 96,500 tons month - on - month, the trader inventory was 177,800 tons, a decrease of 15,840 tons month - on - month, and the port inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% month - on - month. The LL - PP spread was - 489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 366 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. 3.9 PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 140 yuan, reported at 9700 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 18 yuan (+ 20). The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1% month - on - month. Some plants restarted or shut down. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 311,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28,000 tons. The inventory at the end of February was 4.8 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 120 US dollars (- 11), the South Korean PX - MX was 112 US dollars (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was 364 US dollars (- 4) [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 84 yuan, reported at 6684 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 96 yuan (+ 4). The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The social inventory on March 27 was 2.8 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons month - on - month. The on - disk processing fee increased by 8 yuan to 321 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 141 yuan, reported at 5218 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 116 yuan (- 9). The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The import arrival forecast was 117,000 tons, and the East China departure on March 30 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.075 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons month - on - month. The naphtha - based production profit was - 3137 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2727 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1176 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 1500 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price rebounded to 690 yuan [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are highly volatile due to the Middle - East geopolitical situation. The supply is tight, and it is recommended to consider a bull call spread [7]. - The asphalt price is expected to be relatively strong with a certain de - stocking expectation, but short - term long positions are recommended due to large oil price fluctuations [31]. - The pulp market has supply - demand contradictions and is expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term [58]. 3. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI's opening price was $100.51, closing price was $94.17, with a decline of 4.00%. Brent's opening price was $107.5, closing price was $101.92, with a decline of 2.38%. SC's opening price was 781.0 yuan/barrel, closing price was 740.8 yuan/barrel, with a decline of 4.24% [7]. - The US has adopted a strategy of talking while fighting in the Middle - East. The Strait of Hormuz transportation is interrupted, and many Middle - East oil - producing countries are forced to cut production, with a cumulative reduction of about 800,000 barrels per day. It is recommended to consider a bull call spread [7]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - The US has announced a suspension of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, but continues to increase military deployment in the Middle - East. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked [8]. - After the news of the US - Iran dialogue was released, oil prices fluctuated greatly. Iran denied having any contact with the US [8]. - Many Middle - East oil - producing countries are forced to cut production. The US has lifted some oil sanctions, and IEA member countries are releasing reserves, but the effect on supply is limited [9]. Asphalt 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - For BU2606, the opening price was 4465 yuan/ton, closing price was 4532 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.68%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China all increased [30]. - The cost side supports the asphalt price. The supply is tight, and demand is improving. There is a de - stocking expectation, and short - term long positions are recommended [30][31]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - The cost side is affected by the Middle - East geopolitical situation, and oil prices are volatile but the center is rising. Spot prices of asphalt are rising [32]. - The weekly loss of asphalt devices decreased by 45,000 tons. The overall start - up rate increased by 0.87 percentage points this week, but is expected to decline next week [33]. - The production of asphalt continues to be in a loss state. The demand is expected to be released steadily, and the inventory has decreased slightly [34]. Pulp 3.1. Market Review and Outlook - As of Thursday, the 05 contract of pulp closed at 5156 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from last week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.47%. The prices of imported pulp in the spot market vary [57]. - The supply - demand contradiction in the pulp market still exists, and it is expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term [58]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - The shipment volume of pulp from major pulp - producing countries in December showed different trends. The global chemical pulp shipment - to - capacity ratio was 97.75% in December [59]. - In February, China's pulp imports decreased. The inventory of pulp in major regions and ports increased in late March [58][62]. - The downstream market has insufficient terminal orders, and there is resistance to price increases of downstream base paper [58].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Asphalt: ★★★, meaning a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] Core Views - The short-term oil price has a high risk of two-way fluctuations, and the long-term core variable determining the oil price trend is whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open [1] - The geopolitical situation is the core of trading, and any progress in the peace talks will drive the market to form a wide-range shock pattern [2] - The asphalt fundamentals have marginal improvement expectations, and the BU price trend will follow the oil price, but the downside space is expected to be limited [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The US government proposed a 15-item conflict-ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, but Iran doubts the US's sincerity due to previous attacks and troop deployments [1] - The capacity of alternative oil pipelines in the Middle East still has a huge gap compared with the normal shipping volume through the strait, and the release of strategic oil reserves by IEA member countries is only for emergency buffering [1] - The short-term oil price has a high risk of two-way fluctuations, and the long-term core variable determining the oil price trend is whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open [1] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The US proposed a peace talk plan to Iran, leading to a significant decline in fuel oil prices [2] - The logistics suppression of supply has not been lifted, and the supply gap in the Middle East cannot be fully hedged [2] - The approaching summer power generation peak may bring more fuel oil demand due to the LNG supply gap [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil production has decreased due to supply reductions in Kuwait and other overseas refineries, as well as domestic raw material issues, and the high crack spread of refined oil supports the low-sulfur trend [2] - The geopolitical situation is the core of trading, and any progress in the peace talks will drive the market to form a wide-range shock pattern [2] Asphalt - Domestic refining enterprises are worried about future imported raw materials, and some refineries have started or plan to reduce device capacity utilization, leading to a corresponding contraction in asphalt supply [3] - The asphalt production plan for March has been revised down, and the production in April has further declined to an absolute low in recent years [3] - The sample refinery's shipment volume has decreased significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year decline has further expanded [3] - The refinery inventory has decreased month-on-month, the social inventory has turned negative year-on-year, and the overall commercial inventory level is low [3] - The asphalt fundamentals have marginal improvement expectations, and the BU price trend will follow the oil price, but the downside space is expected to be limited [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The core variable of oil price trends depends on the smooth passage of the global energy transportation route. Geopolitical conflicts show no sign of easing, and oil price fluctuations may intensify [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to follow crude oil, with a solid lower support, be easily affected by news, and show a wide - range oscillating pattern [2]. - The fundamentals of asphalt have marginal improvement expectations, and its direction will follow oil price fluctuations [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Trump issued a 48 - hour ultimatum to Iran, and Iran responded with a severe warning. The gap between alternative pipeline capacity and normal oil transport volume through the Strait of Hormuz is large. The release of strategic oil reserves by IEA member countries is for emergency buffering and has replenishment needs. The key to oil price is the strait's passage, and attention should be paid to whether energy infrastructure is directly attacked [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical tensions over the weekend led to a sharp rise in fuel oil prices. Supply from the Middle East decreased, and although there are some alternative supplies, they are insufficient. Domestic refinery operating rates declined, increasing import demand. Overseas, LNG gas field attacks increased the demand for fuel oil. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the attack on Fujairah Port increased Singapore's bunkering demand, and supply is limited [2]. Asphalt - The military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continues, and the traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz is low. Asphalt refinery supply tightened, and production decreased. Downstream demand is expected to improve with rising temperatures. Refinery inventory decreased, and social inventory increased slightly, but both are at near - three - year lows. The asphalt's direction will follow oil price fluctuations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third week of March, the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation continued to increase, with crude oil prices oscillating at a high level and rising compared to the previous week. Rising transportation and energy costs supported freight rates and upstream material prices. Terminal demand for products like rebar was steadily recovering seasonally during the "Golden March". In terms of inflation, the decline in pork prices continued to widen, while the decline in food prices slightly narrowed. In terms of exports, export container shipping prices showed a differentiated trend. Although the port container and cargo throughput increased month - on - month, the average monthly value year - on - year was still weaker than that in February. In terms of investment, cement prices stopped falling and rebounded, and downstream construction continued to pick up. In the real estate sector, the average value of new homes in March showed a year - on - year negative growth, while the year - on - year performance of second - hand homes continued to improve compared to the previous week, with the "Little Spring" market being slightly better than the same period [4][29]. - For the bond market, geopolitical disturbances continued, and high - fluctuating oil prices drove up shipping costs and energy product prices. As downstream demand was steadily recovering seasonally, it was necessary to continuously monitor whether the price increase of upstream products would temporarily suppress the release of demand. Overseas, rising shipping costs and geopolitical factors affected some routes, suppressing demand. Although the port throughput increased month - on - month this week, the average value in March was weaker than that in February year - on - year, so attention should be paid to the possibility of export fluctuations in March. Domestically, the resumption rate of construction sites continued to rise this week but was still lower than the same period in the lunar calendar, and the construction intensity was limited. Rebar inventory changed from accumulation to reduction for the first time this year, and the inflection point basically conformed to the seasonality. The "Little Spring" market was mainly reflected in the trading volume of second - hand homes, which continued to increase year - on - year under the high - base situation of last year, while new homes showed a year - on - year negative growth. Attention should be paid to the transmission of volume to price in the future [4][30]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs (1) Inflation - related: Food prices continued to decline - The decline in pork prices widened. This week, the average wholesale price of pork across the country announced by the Ministry of Agriculture decreased by 3.4% month - on - month, and vegetable prices decreased by 2.4% month - on - month. The decline in food prices narrowed, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreasing by 0.9% and 1.0% month - on - month respectively [9]. (2) Import and export - related: Container shipping prices showed a differentiated trend - Due to changes in supply - demand fundamentals, freight rates showed a differentiated trend. This week, the CCFI index increased by 4.5% month - on - month, while the SCFI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. The export container shipping market continued to be affected by the tense geopolitical situation. Relevant routes were greatly affected, and the rest of the routes were affected by supply - demand fundamentals and showed a differentiated trend. Among them, the European route transportation was basically stable, and the booking price continued to rise. The demand on the North American route weakened, and the prices of the West and East US routes decreased by about 7 - 8% month - on - month. The Persian Gulf route was most affected by the US - Iran conflict, and the container shipping market basically stagnated [10]. - In terms of port transportation volume, from March 9th to March 15th, the port's container throughput and cargo throughput increased by 9.3% and 9.5% month - on - month respectively, and the single - week year - on - year increase was 11.1% and 2.3% respectively [10]. - Supported by costs, the BDI and CDFI indices continued to rise. The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported that the geopolitical conflict continued to drive up international fuel prices. Supported by rising costs, the freight rates of voyage charter routes in the international dry bulk shipping market remained at a high level. However, high oil prices had a certain impact on the release of local coal and grain transportation demand [10]. (3) Industry - related: Rebar inventory decreased for the first time this year, and demand continued to improve - The decline in coal prices narrowed. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, with a narrowing decline. Currently in the consumption off - season, power plant coal consumption was weak. However, due to the deep inversion of imported coal prices, procurement demand shifted to domestic trade, and cargo volumes were released intensively. In terms of price, coal prices in the main producing areas rose slightly and steadily. Coupled with the rigid demand for restocking by downstream enterprises after resuming work, coal mine sales improved, and the week - on - week average decline in coal prices narrowed [16]. - Rebar prices continued to rise, and inventory changed from accumulation to reduction for the first time this year. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the social inventory of rebar decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, entering the inventory reduction phase for the first time since the beginning of the year. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 17.5% month - on - month and continued to improve. This week, the acceleration of downstream resumption of work drove the recovery of demand. The apparent demand for rebar increased significantly, production continued to rise, inventory changed from increase to decrease, and both factory and social inventories decreased slightly [16]. - The asphalt operating rate declined rapidly. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased by 1.2 percentage points month - on - month to 21.8%, at a relatively low level. Geopolitical factors in Iran led to uncertainty in raw material supply, and asphalt production continued to decline month - on - month. In terms of demand, current terminal project demand was low, and high prices restricted transactions. Asphalt was in a situation of weak supply and demand [16]. - Due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline in risk appetite, the decline in copper prices widened. This week, the average price of Yangtze River non - ferrous copper decreased by 2.8% month - on - month, with the decline continuing to widen. The impact of US - Iran geopolitical factors increased, stagflation expectations trading continued. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at the March interest - rate meeting and a hawkish stance, the US dollar index strengthened, and low risk appetite continued to suppress copper prices [19]. - The glass futures price turned down. Although the energy price at the cost end supported the upstream soda ash price and limited the downward space for the finished product price, the current terminal demand had not substantially improved, and downstream purchasing sentiment was cautious. The spot price remained stable [19]. (4) Investment - related: Cement prices stopped falling and rebounded - Cement prices started to rise. This week, the cement price index increased by 1.6% month - on - month, ending the continuous decline. According to the Centennial Building Network, as of March 18th, the resumption rate of construction sites across the country was 62%, a month - on - month increase of 19.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.6 percentage points in the lunar calendar; the labor employment rate increased by 17.8 percentage points month - on - month, remaining the same year - on - year in the lunar calendar [23]. - The trading volume of new homes continued to increase. As of Friday this week, the trading area of new homes in 30 cities increased by 12.7% month - on - month and 13% year - on - year, with the year - on - year increase narrowing compared to the previous week. Aligned with the Lunar New Year, as of March 20th, the trading area of new homes in 30 cities (7 - day rolling sum) decreased by 16.3% year - on - year in the lunar calendar, with the decline continuing to widen compared to the previous Friday [24]. - The trading volume of second - hand homes increased rapidly. As of Friday this week, the trading area of second - hand homes in 17 cities increased by 15.1% month - on - month and decreased by 9.7% year - on - year, showing improvement compared to the previous week. Aligned with the Lunar New Year, as of March 20th, the trading volume of second - hand homes (7 - day rolling sum) increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with the increase expanding compared to the previous week. The "Little Spring" market for second - hand homes was better than the same period [24]. (5) Consumption: Oil prices oscillated at a high level - In the first half of March, the retail sales of passenger cars showed a year - on - year negative growth. According to the Passenger Car Association, from March 1st to March 15th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 561,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 21% and a month - on - month increase of 2% compared to the same period in February. The popularity of the car market was gradually recovering [25]. - The average daily subway passenger volume in 25 cities decreased slightly. From last Saturday to this Friday, the average daily subway passenger volume in 25 cities was 3.209 million person - times, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. The Baidu Migration Index decreased by 2.6% month - on - month, in line with seasonality. The average value in March increased by 28.1% year - on - year, and travel was still at a high level compared to the same period [25]. - The uncertainty of the US - Iran situation remained high, and international oil prices fluctuated at a high level. As of March 20th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 8.8% and decreased by 0.5% respectively compared to last Friday, reaching $112.2 per barrel and $98.2 per barrel. Currently, major oil - producing countries were worried about reducing oil supply due to factors such as受阻 overseas shipping capacity, which supported the rise in oil prices [25][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price shows a volatile and upward - trending rhythm. The energy market is facing an unprecedented supply shock, and geopolitical conflicts and concerns about economic downturn are dragging down asset prices [1][3]. - The short - term high and low - sulfur cracking spreads of fuel oil are expected to remain high. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is tightened due to the closure of the east - west arbitrage window. The demand from domestic refineries and overseas ship refueling is expected to increase [3]. - The short - term asphalt price is expected to remain high. The supply is expected to decrease due to geopolitical conflicts and some refineries' focus on refined oil supply. The demand is expected to increase in April [3][4]. - The short - term polyester price will experience a high - level correction and oscillation. The cost is rising and the supply is shrinking, while the downstream demand is weak [4]. - The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber may further diverge. The price of butadiene rubber will fluctuate with geopolitical situations and oil prices, and natural rubber will face the dual pressures of increased supply and decreased demand [6]. - The methanol futures and spot prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern. Attention should be paid to the intensity and scope of Iran's retaliation, changes in geopolitical conflicts, and the actual resumption progress of downstream MTO devices [6]. - The polyolefin market is in a de - stocking rhythm, but short - term geopolitical risks push up costs, squeezing downstream profit margins and potentially hindering demand growth [8]. - The PVC price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium carbide - based method is strengthening rapidly. Supply is expected to remain high, and demand will gradually recover [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI April contract closed down 0.18 dollars to 96.14 dollars per barrel, a 0.19% decline; Brent May contract closed up 1.27 dollars to 108.65 dollars per barrel, a 1.18% increase; SC2605 closed at 757.1 yuan per barrel, down 46.3 yuan per barrel, a 5.76% decline. Geopolitical events such as Iran's warning and attacks on oil facilities in the Middle East have affected the market. The overall oil price shows a volatile and upward - trending rhythm [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.91% to 5011 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 10.45% to 6170 yuan per ton. As of March 16, the land - based fuel oil inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased. The short - term high and low - sulfur cracking spreads are expected to remain high [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2604 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 4.32% to 4635 yuan per ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased slightly. The short - term price is expected to remain high [3][4]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6834 yuan per ton, up 0.65%; EG2605 closed at 5220 yuan per ton, up 7.65%. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term price will experience a high - level correction and oscillation [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 310 yuan per ton to 16090 yuan per ton; the NR contract fell 180 yuan per ton to 12925 yuan per ton; the butadiene rubber contract BR rose 280 yuan per ton to 15540 yuan per ton. The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber may further diverge [4][6]. - **Methanol**: Short - term methanol futures and spot prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern. Attention should be paid to multiple variables such as Iran's retaliation and downstream device resumption [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream device maintenance plans increase, and the downstream factory operating load rises. The market is in a de - stocking rhythm, but short - term geopolitical risks push up costs, squeezing downstream profit margins [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The PVC market prices in East, North, and South China are adjusted upwards. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium carbide - based method is strengthening. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The document provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on March 19 and 18, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantile information [9]. 3.3 Market News - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar have become "legitimate targets for attack". The Habshan gas facility in the UAE has been temporarily shut down, and the Ahmadi Port refinery in Kuwait has been attacked [11]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) detailed the specific composition of the approximately 400 million - barrel strategic oil reserve release plan. The release will mainly consist of crude oil, and in Europe, it will mainly be in the form of refined oil. The specific allocation ratio between crude oil and refined oil may change [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The document provides line charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fibers, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [13][14][17][20][24]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The document provides line charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][30][33][34][37]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The document provides line charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [40][42][46][48][50][52]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: The document provides line charts showing the spreads and ratios between different products, including crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [55][58][59][62]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The document provides line charts showing the production profits of various products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fees, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [63][64][66]. 3.5 Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and formulating risk management and investment strategies [69]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of the Energy and Chemical Research Department of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with in - depth research on the energy industry, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [70]. - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis and has strong logical thinking [71]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the energy - chemical spot - futures trading and financial theory - industry operation combination [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global capital market liquidity continues to be impacted, and domestic small and medium - cap stocks are dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and may restart the upward pattern in the future with the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite [1]. - Multiple factors such as housing demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are under pressure, while the price of alumina may fluctuate due to the consideration of export quotas in Guinea. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and their prices are under pressure. Platinum and palladium prices are also under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side resumes production, but demand is weak and inventory is being depleted. For lithium carbonate, there are factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, and strong capital risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is in shock [1]. - For black metals, most varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term. Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - For energy and chemical futures, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected, and their prices show different trends [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions in the medium and long term by combining the discount advantage of stock index futures and control positions [1]. - Treasury bonds oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may decline, aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices may fluctuate. Zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and platinum and palladium prices are under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Industrial silicon has issues of supply - side resumption and weak demand; lithium carbonate has multiple influencing factors and is in shock [1]. Black Metals - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, glass, and other varieties are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical changes [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures are expected to continue the high - level shock pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [1]. - It is recommended to wait for callbacks to layout long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean meal [1]. - Pulp futures are in a weak fundamental situation and are in shock in a certain price range [1]. - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and their prices show different trends [1]. - Urea has limited upward space and cost - side support; methanol has issues of Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC are affected by geopolitical factors, and PVC has a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - Caustic soda has a weak fundamental situation, and the market sentiment has cooled [1]. - LPG has a complex situation with factors such as price premiums, demand, and inventory, and there is a differentiation between internal and external markets [1]. - For container shipping on the European line, price increases are generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, have a significant impact on the energy and chemical markets, causing sharp fluctuations in oil prices and increasing market uncertainty [1][2][3][5][6] - The supply and demand of various energy and chemical products are affected by multiple factors such as inventory changes, production capacity adjustments, and terminal demand, resulting in different price trends [1][2][3][5][6] - The cost side is the main focus of the market, and the volatility of crude oil prices will lead to resonance in the prices of related products [1][2][3][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell sharply. WTI April contract closed down $11.32 to $83.45/barrel, a decline of 11.94%. Brent May contract closed down $11.16 to $87.8/barrel, a decline of 11.28%. SC2604 closed at 642 yuan/barrel, down 90.4 yuan/barrel, a decline of 12.34%. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is tense, and the inventory of US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate oil has decreased. China's crude oil imports from January to February increased by 15.8% year-on-year. Oil prices are expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The high-sulfur supply interruption risk has increased, and the Asian low-sulfur market is expected to remain strong. Geopolitical changes will increase market volatility, and investors are advised to control risks [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The geopolitical conflict has restricted the procurement channels of heavy crude oil by local refineries, and the raw material cost has risen. However, the terminal demand has not yet started, and the social inventory is digested slowly. The asphalt market is in a game between "strong cost" and "weak demand", and the increase may be less than that of other oil products [2] - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, the polyester contracts fell. The supply of chemical products has decreased, and the cost side is the main focus of the market. The polyester chain varieties will oscillate with the cost side in the short term, and investors can focus on factors such as the passage efficiency of the strait, the start-up situation of domestic suppliers, and the downstream negative feedback [2][3] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the rubber contracts showed different trends. The domestic and foreign rubber is in the low-yield season, and the supply reduction expectation of butadiene has increased. The price of butadiene and its downstream products has continued to rise. The rubber price is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to the external macro atmosphere and the development of the Middle East geopolitical situation [3] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the methanol price showed a certain trend. The domestic maintenance devices are running stably, and the supply is in a high-level oscillation. The Iranian supply overseas remains low. The demand is at a low level. The arrival volume in March will continue to decline, which will support the price, but the low load of MTO devices will put pressure on inventory reduction. The market is expected to oscillate, and investors are advised to control risks [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the polyolefin prices showed a certain trend. The upstream device maintenance plan has increased, and the subsequent production is expected to decrease. The downstream factory start-up load has increased, and the demand still has room for growth. The market is in the process of inventory reduction, and the fundamental pressure is not great. The short-term geopolitical risk has increased the volatility, and investors should pay attention to the changes in the US-Iran situation and control risks [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the PVC market price in East, North, and South China has been significantly reduced. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene method, but the profit of the calcium carbide method has increased rapidly. The subsequent supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand will gradually recover. The overall inventory is in the process of reduction, and the PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Investors should pay attention to the downstream resumption progress, the implementation of export orders, and the Iranian situation [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on March 10, 2026, as well as the comparison data of the previous day. These data can help investors understand the market price relationship between the spot and futures of different varieties [7] 3.3 Market News - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Commander warned that any ships related to Iran's hostile forces are not allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [11] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) slightly raised its forecast for U.S. oil production in 2026 to 1,361 million barrels per day and in 2027 to 1,383 million barrels per day. The global oil production forecast for 2026 is 107 million barrels per day, and for 2027 is 109.6 million barrels per day. The global oil demand forecast for 2026 is 105.2 million barrels per day, and for 2027 is 106.6 million barrels per day [11] - The American Petroleum Institute (API) data shows that the inventories of U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate oil decreased last week. China's crude oil imports in February were 48.045 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 96.934 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, which helps investors understand the long-term price trends of different varieties [14][16][18][20][21][23][24][25][27][28] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, which helps investors understand the price relationship between the spot and futures of different varieties [29][30][33][34][35][36][37] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, which helps investors understand the price differences between different contract periods of different varieties [39][40][41][42][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, which helps investors understand the price relationships between different varieties [54][56][57][59] - **Production Profits**: The report shows the production profits and processing fees of various energy and chemical products, which helps investors understand the profitability of different varieties [60][61][62] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the research team members of Everbright Futures' energy and chemical research, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director, and analysts for different product categories, and briefly describes their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [66][67][68][69]