光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 8 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心下挫，其中 WTI 10 月合约收盘下跌 1.55 美元至 | | | | 63.25 美元/桶，跌幅 2.39%。布伦特 10 月合约收盘下跌 1.58 美元 | | | | 至 67.22 美元/桶，跌幅 2.3%。SC2510 以 486.8 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 10.9 元/桶，跌幅 2.19%。由于美国计划自周三起对印度商品加征 | | | | 的关税提高一倍至 50%，预计印度国有和私营炼油厂将减少近期 | | | | 对于俄罗斯石油的采购。当地时间 25 日，美国国土安全部发布的 | | | | 50%关税的计 一份草案通知，概述了美国政府将对印度产品征收 | | | | 划。通知称，加征的关税将适用于"自 2025 年 8 月 27 日美国东 | | | 原油 | 部夏令时间 0 时起，报关提货或从仓库提货的印度商品"。10 月， | 震荡 | | | 印度从俄罗斯进口的石油数量将较第一季度的平均 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

Economic Outlook for August 2025 - After a slowdown in July, the stock market's rise in August may not directly translate to a rebound in the real economy, with service sector PMI and production indices expected to improve, alleviating some downward pressure[3] - The capital market's heat in August is anticipated to positively influence service sector indicators, with historical trends showing a correlation between the Shanghai Composite Index and service sector PMI[3][4] - Investor confidence appears to be stabilizing, but consumer confidence is lagging, with a decline in growth rates for automobile and home appliance sales in August[4] External Demand and Trade Challenges - Risks of declining external demand are emerging, as new tariff measures from the U.S. have led to a noticeable drop in container shipping volumes to the U.S. compared to 2024[5] - The "stabilizing foreign trade" and "anti-involution" policies are creating dual challenges for enterprises, with industrial production likely to face further downward pressure in August[5][6] Infrastructure and Investment Insights - Infrastructure investment is expected to recover, with signs of improvement in asphalt production rates and cement price indices in August, indicating potential positive signals in the construction sector[6][7] - The government bond issuance has slowed, which may limit fiscal support for infrastructure projects, necessitating more proactive macroeconomic policies[7][8] Price Trends and Employment Concerns - Industrial product prices may see a quicker rebound than expected due to the "anti-involution" policy, with the South China Industrial Index showing early signs of recovery[6][7] - The youth unemployment rate is likely to continue its seasonal rise in August, increasing the urgency for demand-side policies to stabilize employment[7][8]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 地缘风险上升，油价短线反弹，但供给过剩压力不断上升，油价趋势仍向 下。近期地缘风险上升，美俄会谈后，俄乌冲突继续，乌克兰袭击俄罗斯 | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 炼厂，美国新增对伊朗制裁；供需方面，油价进入旺季尾声，随着 OPEC+ | | ★ | | 逐渐扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，供给端重点 | | | | 关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。策略：买入看跌期权， | | | | 轻仓试空。 | | | | 估值修复，下游开工回落，关注成本端油价变动。成本端油价短线反弹， 但趋势仍然向下；估值修复，主力合约基差处于正常水平；下游化工需求 | | LPG | | | | ★ | 多单止盈 | 尚可，PDH 开工率环比下降，但仍高于 70%；供给端和库存变化不大，偏 | | | | 中性。策略：估值回归，主力有超涨迹象，警惕成本端走弱，多单止盈。 | | L | | 成本支撑好转，期现同涨，基差走弱，旺季启动节奏缓慢，社会库存由跌 | | | 空头反弹 | 转涨。本周装置计划重启增 ...

能源化工日报 2025-08-26 原油 能源化工组 2025/08/26 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.97 美元，涨幅 1.52%，报 64.74 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.95 美元，涨幅 1.40%，报 68.74 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.40 元，跌幅 0.29%， 报 485.6 元。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 0.43 百万桶至 209.84 百万桶，环比去 库 0.21%；汽油商业库存去库 1.51 百万桶至 88.63 百万桶，环比去库 1.68%；柴油商业库存 累库 0.59 百万桶至 105.18 百万桶，环比累库 0.56%；总成品油商业库存去库 0.92 百万桶至 193.81 百万桶，环比去库 0.47%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，且宏观偏空，但当前油价已经出现相对低估，且自身静 态基本面与动态预测仍表现良好。我们维持上周对原油多配的观点，但当前价格已不宜追多， 基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][4][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in US crude oil inventories supports the rebound of oil prices, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and oil prices are in a low - range oscillating rhythm. Geopolitical factors such as the Iran nuclear negotiation deadline and potential sanctions also affect the oil market [1]. - The consumption of marine fuel in Singapore increased in July, but the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are suppressed by sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market shows signs of stabilization. In the short term, the upward space of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is not optimistic [3]. - The asphalt market is expected to see a situation of increasing supply and demand in August, and the price will oscillate in a range due to the lack of obvious one - sided driving force [4]. - The polyester market shows signs of demand recovery. PX prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil prices, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - The rubber market has firm raw materials, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - The methanol market has a short - term low supply due to many domestic device overhauls, but the supply will gradually recover. The port inventory is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand. The cost side does not fluctuate significantly, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - The polyvinyl chloride market has high - level supply oscillations and gradually recovering demand. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. The EIA inventory report showed a decline in US crude oil and gasoline inventories but an increase in distillate inventories. As the deadline for Iran's nuclear negotiation and cooperation approaches, geopolitical risks exist. Indian companies have resumed purchasing Russian oil. The current destocking of US crude oil supports the price rebound, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and the price is in a low - range oscillating rhythm [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE rose, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil fell. In July, Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 19 - month high. High - sulfur fuel oil demand increased significantly, and its market share is approaching 40%. In August, the supply of traditional fuel oil in Singapore is still abundant. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by reduced supply in September [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the SHFE rose. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in September is expected to increase year - on - year and month - on - month. The social inventory rate decreased slightly, and the refinery inventory level increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand in the north is stable, while the demand in the east is expected to recover. The price will oscillate in a range in August [4]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures all rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined. A Malaysian MEG device has restarted. PX supply and demand are recovering, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber all fell. Rubber raw materials are firm, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, spot prices in different regions and international prices are given. Recently, there have been many domestic device overhauls, and the supply is at a short - term low. The supply will gradually recover, and the arrival volume is expected to remain high. The port inventory will increase in the short term, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, prices and production profits of different types of polyolefins are provided. The subsequent production volume will remain high, and the current downstream enterprise开工 is low. As the peak demand season approaches, the industry开工 rate is expected to increase, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC market prices in East, North, and South China all decreased. The supply oscillates at a high level, and the demand is gradually recovering. The basis and monthly spread are relatively high, and it is expected that the monthly spread will narrow, and the price will oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Data on the basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their respective changes from August 19th to 20th [9]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased last week, while distillate inventories increased. As of August 15th, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels, which was more than the market expectation. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 419,000 barrels [12]. - JODI data shows that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June dropped to a three - month low, with exports falling from 6.191 million barrels per day in May to 6.141 million barrels per day. However, the crude oil production in June was 9.752 million barrels per day, higher than that in May [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. from 2021 to 2025 are presented [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips are provided [32][34][38][41][44][45]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different contracts of various products such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber are shown [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spreads, PP - LLDPE spreads, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spreads are presented [67][68][69][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are provided [72][76]. 4. Research Team Members - **Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director**: Zhong Meiyan, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, has won multiple "Excellent Analyst" awards and led the team to win many industry service awards. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research [78]. - **Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst**: Du Bingqin, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University, has won multiple industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [79]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, a finance master, has won multiple awards and is engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, PTA, MEG, and other futures varieties [80]. - **Methanol/PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with an engineering master's degree from China University of Petroleum (East China), is a mid - level economist and has years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The overall market sentiment has shown a mixed picture. Overseas, the global risk appetite has cooled to some extent, while in China, the risk appetite has increased due to policy stimulus expectations and the extension of the tariff truce period. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions, and various commodity sectors also face different supply - demand and price situations. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the US dollar reduced its decline after the Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers supported last month's rate cut, and the global risk appetite cooled. In China, the economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier indicated measures to boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market, and the Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, increasing domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a short - term high, and it is advisable to be cautious when going long; the treasury bond is expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, black metals are expected to correct in the short term, non - ferrous metals to oscillate, energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly, and precious metals to oscillate at a high level, all requiring cautious observation. [2] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as liquor, semiconductors, and small metals, the domestic stock market rose significantly. The economic data in July was weak, but policy stimulus expectations increased, and the short - term macro - upward driving force strengthened. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. It is advisable to be cautious when going long in the short term. [3] Precious Metals - Precious metals rose on Wednesday. The Fed meeting minutes showed only two policymakers advocated rate cuts, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September was 83%. Weak employment data and a weakening US dollar index led to the rise of precious metals. The long - term positive logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to entry opportunities at key points. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets were flat, with prices slightly falling and low trading volume. Demand weakened, and inventories in some areas increased. Supply of rebar was relatively low, and that of plates was stable. There were rumors of production control in Cangzhou, and iron - water production may further decline. It is advisable to view the steel market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak. Although steel mill profits were high and iron - water production rebounded slightly last week, with the approaching of important events in early September, production - restriction policies may be further strengthened, and port transportation and ore handling volumes will be affected. The supply side increased, and port inventories were accumulating. Iron ore prices may weaken in the short term. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell. Manganese ore prices continued to decline. Manufacturers were actively starting production, and some had plans to increase production. The开工 rate and daily output of both silicon manganese and silicon iron increased. It is advisable to view the ferroalloy market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short term. [6] - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda - ash contract was weak. The supply - surplus pattern remained unchanged, with new installations expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. Demand was weak, and profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash is likely to fall rather than rise due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [7] - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract was weak. Supply changes were small, demand was still weak in the real - estate industry, and although downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as prices fell. Glass prices follow the real - world logic due to near - month delivery. [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: With the approaching of the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, the expectation of a rate cut has increased, which is short - term positive for copper prices. However, high tariffs and the slowdown of the US economy pose risks. Copper mine production is growing faster than expected, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper price is hard to sustain. [8][9] - **Aluminum**: On August 19, the US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. Aluminum prices fell slightly on Wednesday. The fundamentals of aluminum have weakened, with domestic social inventories increasing significantly and LME inventories also rising. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited medium - term upside. [9] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing production costs and causing losses for some regenerative aluminum plants. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited. [10] - **Tin**: The combined开工 rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight but improving, and refined tin production has not decreased significantly. Demand is weak, and although inventory decreased this week, downstream procurement is still cautious. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upside is restricted. [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down. The prices of lithium carbonate and lithium ore decreased. The industry's profit situation has improved, and production enthusiasm is high. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main industrial - silicon contract fell. The spot price decreased, and the futures price was at a discount. With the weakening of black metals and the oscillation of polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to oscillate within a range. [11] - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon contract fell slightly. Spot prices were stable, and the number of warehouse receipts increased, indicating increased hedging pressure. The photovoltaic industry is expected to regulate the market, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with a possibility of weakening later. [12][13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: EIA data showed a significant decrease in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, leading to a rebound in oil prices. However, Cushing inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and long - term supply increases, the long - term outlook for oil prices is still bearish, and short - term stability is expected. [14] - **Asphalt**: The processing margin of asphalt is approaching the previous low, but the crude - oil processing margin has rebounded slightly, providing some price support. The spot price has slightly recovered, but inventory de - stocking is limited. With the expected decline of crude oil prices due to OPEC+ production increases, asphalt is expected to remain in a weak - oscillation pattern. [14] - **PX**: The adjustment of upstream refinery capacity in China has strengthened the support for downstream chemicals. Although PX is in a tight supply situation in the short term, it is expected to oscillate as PTA device recovery is limited. [15] - **PTA**: The polyester sector rebounded due to capacity adjustment, and PTA was also lifted. Downstream demand has slightly rebounded, but processing margins are low, limiting supply. PTA prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, with the upside restricted by crude oil prices and terminal orders in September. [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The restriction on new capacity and excess raw - material capacity has supported ethylene glycol prices. Although port inventory has decreased slightly, factory inventory is still high, and supply is expected to increase slightly. With the recovery of terminal orders in August, ethylene glycol is expected to maintain an oscillation pattern. [16] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price rose slightly due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased slightly, but inventory accumulation is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term. [16] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang followed the futures and strengthened, while the basis weakened. Inland demand increased as some methanol plants restarted, but port inventory increased due to imports and plant overhauls. The price is expected to oscillate and rise in the short term and maintain a weak - oscillation pattern in the medium term. [17] - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP has increased as device开工 rates have risen and new capacity is to be put into operation. Although downstream demand has increased slightly, there is no obvious peak - season stocking. With policy support, PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the 09 contract and attention should be paid to the 01 contract for peak - season stocking. [17] - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of LLDPE remains high, and demand has shown a turning point. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, while the 01 contract is supported by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to demand, stocking, and policy implementation. [18] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT rose slightly. US soybean growers urged the government to reach a trade agreement with China, and the results of the Midwest crop inspection were mixed. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of full - stockpiling of soybeans and soybean meal in domestic oil mills has been relieved. Canadian rapeseed imports are restricted, but China's purchase of Australian rapeseed has eased the supply risk. The price of soybean and rapeseed meal has risen, and there is still a risk preference for rapeseed meal. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: ICE rapeseed rebounded after two days of decline. The supply of domestic rapeseed oil is expected to shrink as port inventory decreases and imports are low. The cost of soybean oil is expected to be strong, with high short - term inventory pressure but improved supply - demand in the fourth quarter. [20] - **Palm Oil**: The prices of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, Malaysian palm - oil futures, and international crude oil rose. The export of Malaysian palm oil in August 1 - 20 increased significantly, but the inverted soybean - palm oil price spread may affect future demand. [20] - **Corn**: The national corn price is slightly weak. With the listing of spring corn, sufficient supply, and the potential impact of state - reserve auctions and rice auctions, the corn market remains weak. [20] - **Pigs**: Pig prices may have a seasonal rebound from late August to September, but the amplitude is limited. The cost of secondary fattening has increased due to stricter transportation inspections. The spot price has stabilized, and attention should be paid to the consumption peak during the start of the school term. [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the negotiation between the US, Russia, and Ukraine has made progress, global risk aversion has decreased, and the US dollar has rebounded. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations, but policy stimulus expectations have increased, and domestic risk appetite has generally risen [2]. - In terms of assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short - term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to watch cautiously. Among the commodity sectors, the black sector has increased short - term volatility, the non - ferrous sector is expected to fluctuate and it is advisable to be cautiously long, the energy and chemical sector is expected to fluctuate weakly, and precious metals are expected to fluctuate at a high level, all of which require cautious observation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the negotiation between the US, Russia, and Ukraine has made progress, the US retail sales in July increased as expected, and the market has reduced expectations of a significant interest rate cut by the Fed, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier proposed to stimulate consumption potential and stabilize the real estate market, and the Sino - US tariff truce has been extended by 90 days, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties and increasing domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as artificial intelligence, film and television theaters, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market has risen significantly. Although China's economic data in July was weak, policy stimulus expectations have increased, and the short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level in the short - term, it is advisable to watch cautiously [2]. Commodity Research Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel have declined slightly. The US has expanded the scope of steel and aluminum tariff collection, and the real demand has weakened. The inventory of five major steel products has increased, and the supply of rebar is relatively low while the supply of plates is relatively stable. It is advisable to view the steel market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short - term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have continued to decline slightly. Although the steel mill profits are high in the short - term, the iron water production is expected to decrease as important events approach. The supply has increased, and the port inventory is accumulating. The iron ore price may weaken periodically later [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron remained flat, and that of silicon manganese rebounded slightly. The market performance is good, and the manufacturers' enthusiasm for production is high. The manganese ore price is firm. The iron alloy price is expected to be weak - oscillating in the short - term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash has shown range - bound oscillations. The supply has increased, and the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The price upside is limited [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass has shown range - bound oscillations. The supply is stable, the demand from the real estate industry is weak, and the profit has decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts can be considered later [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Pay attention to the follow - up progress of the US - Russia negotiation. The copper mine supply is increasing, and the domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper price is difficult to sustain [9]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has declined due to US tariff measures. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has increased and then stabilized. The medium - term upside is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term with a weakening rebound basis [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the production cost has increased, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The supply - side开工率 has slightly declined, the mine end is expected to become looser, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the upside is restricted [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate has reached a new high. Due to the suspension of a mine, the supply is short - term favorable, and the bullish sentiment is strong. It is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon has declined slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon has risen. The warehouse receipt pressure has increased. Pay attention to the progress of the photovoltaic enterprise symposium organized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US - Ukraine meeting has dampened the expectation of a quick cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The market is uncertain, and the oil price has been fluctuating in a narrow range [14]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by geopolitical uncertainties, asphalt has followed the decline in crude oil prices. The asphalt market is still weak in the peak season, and it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near future [14]. - **PX**: The decline in crude oil prices has led to a correction in the energy and chemical sector. PX is still in a tight supply situation in the short - term and is expected to oscillate [14]. - **PTA**: The downstream demand has rebounded slightly, the processing margin is low, and the supply is restricted. It is expected to oscillate in a narrow range in the short - term [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased slightly, but the factory inventory is still high. The supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [15]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has declined due to sector resonance. The terminal orders have increased slightly, and it is advisable to go short on rallies in the medium - term [15]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is strong, and the port market is weak. The regional differentiation is obvious. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. - **PP**: The supply pressure has increased, and the downstream demand has increased slightly. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract can be observed for peak - season stocking later [16][17]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure remains, and the demand shows signs of a turn. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract can be observed for demand and stocking [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean market is consolidating, waiting for the results of the ProFarmer crop inspection. The US soybean growth indicators are good [18]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of soybean and soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills has been relieved. The purchase of Canadian rapeseed is limited. Pay attention to the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in the near - month contracts [19]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil inventory at ports is decreasing, and the supply of soybean oil is expected to be strong in the fourth quarter [20]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic palm oil inventory has increased. The Indonesian and Indian inventories are low, the export has improved, and the price is expected to run strongly [20]. - **Corn**: The price of Northeast corn is weak, the market trading is inactive, and the supply is expected to be sufficient in the future. The corn futures market is weak [21]. - **Pigs**: The spot hog price is weak, the supply has increased, and the price decline has narrowed. Pay attention to the performance of hog prices during the consumption peak in late August [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic energy and chemical commodity sector showed a volatile downward trend. The weakening of the crude oil futures on the cost side, influenced by the bearish content of the energy report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), led to an expected record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. The weakening of the oil price center dragged down the cost support of the energy and chemical sector, causing prices to decline. - Most energy and chemical commodities saw inventory accumulation this week. Futures inventories of fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, plastics, and PVC increased slightly, while those of asphalt and styrene decreased slightly. Overall, the industrial data of the energy and chemical sector was weak this week, with intensified supply - demand contradictions. Coupled with the weakening of the crude oil cost side, the price center of the entire sector moved downward [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy and Chemical Sector Overall Situation - The energy and chemical sector showed a volatile downward trend this week due to the weakening of the crude oil cost side and inventory changes in most commodities [4]. Data Charts of Partial Varieties - **Rubber**: Included charts of rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory, all - steel tire开工率trend, and semi - steel tire开工率trend [6][7][9][11][14][16]. - **Methanol**: Had charts of methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefins开工率change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [19][21][22][24][26][29]. - **Crude Oil**: Featured charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery开工率, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [30][32][34][36][38][40]. - **Fuel Oil**: Contained charts of domestic high - sulfur fuel oil basis, high - sulfur fuel oil month spread, domestic fuel oil production from 2016 - 2025, Singapore fuel oil inventory from 2020 - 2025, global main shipping index from 2022 - 2025, and Shanghai Futures Exchange high - sulfur fuel oil futures inventory [45][46][48][50][53][55]. - **Asphalt**: Had charts of domestic asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, asphalt month spread, domestic asphalt production from 2016 - 2025, domestic refinery asphalt unit开工率from 2016 - 2025, China's asphalt import volume from 2020 - 2025, and Shanghai Futures Exchange asphalt weekly inventory from 2016 - 2025 [59][60][62][64][65][67]. - **PTA**: Included charts of domestic PTA basis from 2020 - 2025, PTA futures 9 - 1 month spread from 2020 - 2025, domestic PTA unit开工率from 2020 - 2025, domestic PTA weekly production from 2016 - 2025, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA warehouse receipts from 2016 - 2025, and PTA enterprise weekly inventory from 2020 - 2025 [69][71][73][75][77][79]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Had charts of ethylene glycol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic ethylene glycol开工率from 2021 - 2025, domestic ethylene glycol weekly production from 2021 - 2025, polyester industry chain开工率from 2018 - 2025, and East China ethylene glycol inventory from 2018 - 2025 [82][83][85][86][88][90]. - **Styrene**: Contained charts of styrene basis from 2020 - 2025, styrene 9 - 1 month spread from 2021 - 2025, domestic styrene开工率from 2016 - 2025, domestic styrene factory inventory from 2020 - 2025, and East + South China port styrene inventory from 2020 - 2025 [95][96][98][100][103]. - **Plastic**: Had charts of LLDPE basis, LLDPE 9 - 1 month spread from 2019 - 2025, domestic PE and LLDPE monthly production from 2019 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange plastic warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, domestic polyethylene import volume from 2018 - 2025, and domestic plastic products from 2016 - 2025 [109]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: Included charts of polypropylene basis, polypropylene 9 - 1 month spread, Taiwan polypropylene production from 2010 - 2025, domestic polypropylene downstream开工率from 2016 - 2025, domestic polypropylene warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, and domestic PP import volume from 2016 - 2025 [111][112][114][116][117][118]. - **PVC**: Had charts of domestic PVC basis from 2019 - 2025, domestic PVC 9 - 1 month spread from 2019 - 2025, ethylene production from 2016 - 2025, domestic PVC import volume from 2018 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange PVC warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, and cumulative values of housing completion and sales area from 2018 - 2025 [121][123][125][129][131][133].