Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market presents a differentiated pattern of "tight reality, loose expectation." On the supply side, there are both increased supply to Asia by OPEC+ (Iraq's premium and Saudi's increased supply) and disturbances from potential US sanctions, while the IEA's long - term surplus expectation restricts the upside space. On the demand side, the high refinery profits driving restocking and the strong diesel demand still support the near - month contracts. Technically, the SC contract has broken through the key resistance level of 520 yuan/barrel and the monthly spread has widened, indicating strong short - term buying momentum. However, the risk of a phased correction caused by OPEC+ policy adjustments in August should be vigilant [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On July 11, 2025, the SC futures price closed at 522.5 yuan/barrel, showing a unilateral upward trend during the day (ranging from 502.3 - 522.5 yuan/barrel), significantly higher than the previous day. WTI and Brent were reported at 68.29 dollars/barrel and 70.18 dollars/barrel respectively, both continuing a slight upward trend, indicating that international oil prices were short - term bullish. The SC - Brent spread widened to 2.62 dollars/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread strengthened to 4.51 dollars/barrel, reflecting that the domestic SC contract performed significantly stronger than the external market. The Brent - WTI spread also expanded to 1.89 dollars/barrel, indicating a relative shortage of heavy crude oil. The contango structure of the SC near - month contract was further strengthened (the spread between consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 contracts rose to 23.6 yuan/barrel), suggesting increased market concerns about short - term supply tightness [2]. - Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts decreased significantly by 9730 tons to 91640 tons. Coupled with the widening of the low - sulfur fuel oil spread to a more than five - month high, it reflected the weak spot demand for high - sulfur fuel oil. Refineries may reduce inventory to cope with the tightness of heavy crude oil. The warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil remained unchanged at 451.7 million barrels, and the short - term supply might maintain a tight balance [3]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Iraq announced on July 13 that the official selling price of Basra medium crude oil for August showed a premium of 1.35 dollars/barrel for Asia (compared to the Oman/Dubai benchmark) and a discount of 0.55 dollars/barrel for Europe (compared to Brent), indicating an increased resource tilt towards the Asian market, which might lead to regional supply differentiation. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports to China in August might increase to 51 million barrels (year - on - year or month - on - month increase). Coupled with the IEA's warning of a "huge supply surplus" in 2025, it might imply the future production release pressure of OPEC+. In addition, potential new US sanctions and tariff policies on Russia might further disrupt the supply of heavy oil [4]. - **Demand Side**: The demand side shows strong - reality characteristics. Refinery profits remain at a high level. Diesel demand is supported by high - temperature weather in many parts of the world (limiting logistics) and the recovery of the manufacturing PMI. Coupled with the shortage of heavy crude oil restricting the diesel yield, diesel inventories continue to decline. The hi - 5 high - sulfur fuel oil spread has strengthened to a more than five - month high, reflecting the increased willingness of refineries to purchase low - sulfur resources [5]. - **Inventory Side**: Against the background of low inventory in the Cushing area, the structural shortage contradiction of heavy oil is prominent. The significant decrease in fuel oil warehouse receipts is in contrast to the unchanged medium - crude oil warehouse receipts, which might imply that refineries are accelerating the de - stocking of fuel oil raw materials to cope with the pressure of diesel production, and the tight inventory pattern in the middle of the industrial chain continues [6]. c. Price Trend Judgment - The current crude oil market shows a "tight reality, loose expectation" pattern. The supply side has both increased supply to Asia by OPEC+ and disturbances from potential US sanctions, but the IEA's long - term surplus expectation restricts the upside. The demand side, driven by high refinery profits and strong diesel demand, supports the near - month contracts. Technically, the SC contract shows strong short - term buying momentum. However, the risk of a phased correction due to OPEC+ policy adjustments in August should be noted [8]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: On July 11, 2025, SC was 513.90 yuan/barrel, down 8.60 yuan (- 1.65%) from the previous day; WTI was 68.75 dollars/barrel, up 1.88 dollars (2.81%); Brent was 70.63 dollars/barrel, up 1.75 dollars (2.54%) [9]. - **Spot Prices**: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged at 71.23 dollars/barrel. Brent spot price was 72.67 dollars/barrel, up 2.04 dollars (2.89%); Oman was 70.30 dollars/barrel, down 1.28 dollars (- 1.79%); Victory was 67.52 dollars/barrel, down 1.06 dollars (- 1.55%); Dubai was 70.18 dollars/barrel, down 1.11 dollars (- 1.56%); ESPO was 64.41 dollars/barrel, down 0.85 dollars (- 1.30%); Duri was 70.58 dollars/barrel, down 1.04 dollars (- 1.45%) [9]. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread decreased from 3.92 to 1.03 dollars/barrel (- 73.72%); the SC - WTI spread decreased from 5.93 to 2.91 dollars/barrel (- 50.93%); the Brent - WTI spread decreased from 2.01 to 1.88 dollars/barrel (- 6.47%); the SC consecutive - consecutive 3 spread decreased from 23.6 to 21.90 yuan/barrel (- 7.20%) [9]. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index was 97.86, up 0.29 (0.30%); the S&P 500 was 6,259.75 points, down 20.71 points (- 0.33%); the DAX index was 24,255.31 points, down 201.50 points (- 0.82%); the RMB exchange rate was 7.17, down 0.01 (- 0.09%) [9]. - **Inventory and开工**: US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.021 million barrels, up 7.07 million barrels (1.69%); Cushing inventory was 21.195 million barrels, up 0.464 million barrels (2.24%); US strategic reserve inventory was 403.003 million barrels, up 0.0238 million barrels (0.06%); API inventory was 454.126 million barrels, up 7.128 million barrels (1.59%). The US refinery weekly operating rate was 94.70%, down 0.20% (- 0.21%); the US refinery crude oil processing volume was 17.006 million barrels/day, down 0.099 million barrels (- 0.58%) [9]. b. Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: FU was 2,911.00 yuan/ton, down 61.00 yuan (- 2.05%); LU was 3,640.00 yuan/ton, down 47.00 yuan (- 1.27%); NYMEX fuel oil was 246.60 cents/gallon, up 7.21 cents (3.01%) [10]. - **Spot Prices**: IF0380 in Singapore was 420.00 dollars/ton, down 4.00 dollars (- 0.94%); in Rotterdam was 439.00 dollars/ton, down 3.00 dollars (- 0.68%); MDO in Singapore was 518.00 dollars/ton, down 17.00 dollars (- 3.18%); in Rotterdam was 503.00 dollars/ton, down 14.00 dollars (- 2.71%); MGO in Singapore was 673.00 dollars/ton, down 27.00 dollars (- 3.86%); marine 180CST FOB in Singapore was 421.44 dollars/ton, down 13.10 dollars (- 3.01%); marine 380Cst FOB in Singapore was 412.24 dollars/ton, down 13.05 dollars (- 3.07%); low - sulfur 0.5% FOB in Singapore remained unchanged at 512.24 dollars/ton; high - sulfur 180 in East China remained unchanged at 5,050.00 yuan/ton [10]. - **Paper Prices**: High - sulfur 180 in Singapore (near - month) was 421.44 dollars/ton, down 13.10 dollars (- 3.01%); high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) was 412.24 dollars/ton, down 13.05 dollars (- 3.07%); blended high - sulfur 180CST ex - ship in East China ports remained unchanged at 4,925.00 yuan/ton; the CIF price of Russian M100 was 448.00 dollars/ton, down 2.00 dollars (- 0.44%) [10]. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was 108.08 dollars/ton, up 14.55 dollars (15.56%); the Chinese high - low sulfur spread was 729.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan (1.96%); LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) was - 2,096.00 yuan/ton, down 47.00 yuan (- 2.29%); FU - Singapore 380CST was - 2,046.00 yuan/ton, down 61.00 yuan (- 3.07%) [10]. - **Platts and Inventory**: Platts (380CST) was 418.71 dollars/ton, up 11.03 dollars (2.71%); Platts (180CST) was 429.45 dollars/ton, up 15.79 dollars (3.82%); Singapore inventory was 24.708 million barrels, up 1.328 million barrels (5.68%) [10]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Supply - On July 13, Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization SOMO set the official selling price of Basra medium crude oil for North and South America in August at a discount of 1.15 dollars/barrel compared to the Argus sour crude oil. It set the price for Asia at a premium of 1.35 dollars/barrel compared to the Oman/Dubai average and at a discount of 0.55 dollars/barrel for Europe compared to the benchmark Brent crude oil [11][12]. - On July 11, sources said that Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply to China in August was expected to increase to about 51 million barrels [12]. b. Demand - On July 11, Asian hi - 5 fuel oil spreads reached a more than five - month high as high - sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) continued to weaken this week. With the support of low Cushing inventory, the hype about the shortage of heavy oil has resurfaced. The marginal improvement of diesel demand indicators in Europe and the US, such as the manufacturing PMI, and high - temperature weather in multiple regions have also affected logistics transportation, intensifying the tension of the diesel supply - demand contradiction. From the raw material side, the tightness of heavy oil has led to a decline in the diesel yield, resulting in continuous de - stocking of diesel inventories in multiple global regions. Currently, refinery profits remain high, and the purchasing demand is still strong, and the strong - reality pattern may continue [13]. c. Inventory - Low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures receipts were 90 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts were 91,640 tons, down 9,730 tons from the previous trading day. Medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts were 4,517,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day [14]. d. Market Information - On July 11, international crude oil futures rose about 1%. Investors weighed the tightness of the spot market and the IEA's forecast of a huge supply surplus this year. The market also focused on US tariffs and potential further sanctions on Russia. Crude oil price decline has a negative impact on market sentiment. Coupled with weak terminal demand, today's trading in the East China market was only sporadic small orders, and prices fluctuated slightly within a range. The mainstream transaction price of 180cst marine fuel oil in East China was 4,900 - 5,200 yuan/ton, 0 diesel was 6,900 - 7,150 yuan/ton; the mainstream wholesale trading price of marine 180cst was 4,850 - 5,000 yuan/ton [14]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts such as the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the SC and WTI spread statistics, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, OPEC crude oil production, global regional oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly operating rate, US refinery crude oil processing volume, US weekly crude oil net imports, Japanese refinery actual capacity utilization rate, Shandong refinery (atmospheric and vacuum distillation) operating rate, China's refined oil monthly production, US commercial crude oil inventory, US Cushing crude oil inventory, US strategic crude oil inventory, fuel oil futures price trend, international port IFO380 spot price, Singapore high - low sulfur spread, Chinese high - low sulfur spread, cross - regional high - low sulfur spread, and fuel oil inventory [15][17][19]