原油库存去化

Search documents
能源日报-20250729
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 13:00
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not explicitly stated, but the analysis implies a short - term upward support situation [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bearish trend according to the star - rating system [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, suggesting a bearish trend [1] - Asphalt: Not explicitly stated, with a neutral view on supply and weak demand but some price support [3] - LPG: ★☆☆, representing a bearish bias [1] Core View - The macro - economic and geopolitical factors have an impact on the energy market, with different products showing various trends. The overall energy market is affected by factors such as inventory changes, production adjustments, and demand fluctuations. The prices of these energy products generally follow the trend of crude oil to some extent, but each has its own supply - demand characteristics [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, global crude oil inventory has decreased by 1.9%, refined oil inventory has increased by 1.4%, and the overall petroleum inventory has decreased by 0.7% after increases in the first and second quarters. There are expectations for a more relaxed balance sheet after OPEC+ production returns. There are positive macro - economic expectations from trade agreements and negotiations. The short - term market has upward support [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Macro and geopolitical news boosts oil prices, but fuel - related futures' cracking spreads are expected to be under pressure. In July, the arrival volume in the Singapore market increased by 22.5% month - on - month to 6.55 million tons, and the demand for ship refueling weakened. The cracking spreads are likely to be in a weak and volatile state [2] Asphalt - The planned production in August decreased compared to July, but there are signs of potential production increases. Demand recovery is delayed in the South due to typhoons and is weak in the North. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The supply increase space is considered neutral, demand has a weak reality but a repair expectation, and the price is supported by low inventory and follows the crude oil trend with limited upward space [3] LPG - Traders are cautious about potential CP price cuts at the end of the month. Exports increase and put pressure on the overseas market. The import cost decline improves chemical profit margins, and the PDH operating rate has room to rise. The supply is relatively loose, and the market is under pressure, showing a weak and volatile trend [4]