来源：市场资讯 （来源：瑞达期货研究院） 瑞达期货研究院 事件概况： 2026年以来，美伊冲突成为原油上涨的最大驱动，且地缘溢价从"一次性冲击"转为"常态化溢价"，原油 价格呈现"易涨难跌、底部抬升"的趋势。美伊冲突事件呈现"危机升级-军事威慑-局部对抗-僵局维持"的 演变路径，从伊朗国内骚乱到美伊军事对峙，再到伊朗对外"宣称将在霍尔木兹海峡进行实弹海军演 习"，最终形成目前的战略僵局。 2026年春节期间（2月中旬前后），美伊关系呈现出 "谈判桌与航母战斗群并行" 的极度紧张态势。虽然 双方在阿曼举行了间接谈判，但局势并未缓和，反而因军事部署的完成而迅速升级。美伊谈判之际，美 伊双方谈判筹码以及为求达成谈判而使用的手段来说，美国为求达成谈判预计会采取持续的军事高压政 策并对伊朗展开军事打击，而伊朗也表示有在霍尔木兹海峡做军演的可能性，从而带来原油价格上的溢 价。 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 美伊冲突对原油价格的影响主要通过以下三个机制传导：即地缘政治风险溢价（直接影响油价的核心因 素）、霍尔木兹海峡航运安全（影响油价的关键变量）、伊朗原油出口变化（全球供应减少）。根据历 史数据，2025年6月"美伊冲突 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not explicitly stated, but the analysis implies a short - term upward support situation [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bearish trend according to the star - rating system [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, suggesting a bearish trend [1] - Asphalt: Not explicitly stated, with a neutral view on supply and weak demand but some price support [3] - LPG: ★☆☆, representing a bearish bias [1] Core View - The macro - economic and geopolitical factors have an impact on the energy market, with different products showing various trends. The overall energy market is affected by factors such as inventory changes, production adjustments, and demand fluctuations. The prices of these energy products generally follow the trend of crude oil to some extent, but each has its own supply - demand characteristics [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, global crude oil inventory has decreased by 1.9%, refined oil inventory has increased by 1.4%, and the overall petroleum inventory has decreased by 0.7% after increases in the first and second quarters. There are expectations for a more relaxed balance sheet after OPEC+ production returns. There are positive macro - economic expectations from trade agreements and negotiations. The short - term market has upward support [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Macro and geopolitical news boosts oil prices, but fuel - related futures' cracking spreads are expected to be under pressure. In July, the arrival volume in the Singapore market increased by 22.5% month - on - month to 6.55 million tons, and the demand for ship refueling weakened. The cracking spreads are likely to be in a weak and volatile state [2] Asphalt - The planned production in August decreased compared to July, but there are signs of potential production increases. Demand recovery is delayed in the South due to typhoons and is weak in the North. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The supply increase space is considered neutral, demand has a weak reality but a repair expectation, and the price is supported by low inventory and follows the crude oil trend with limited upward space [3] LPG - Traders are cautious about potential CP price cuts at the end of the month. Exports increase and put pressure on the overseas market. The import cost decline improves chemical profit margins, and the PDH operating rate has room to rise. The supply is relatively loose, and the market is under pressure, showing a weak and volatile trend [4]