Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% as expected. The meeting's signals were relatively neutral compared to pre - meeting expectations, and the implied probability of a September rate cut decreased. Fed Chair Powell did not clearly guide on the future rate - cut path, and the threshold for future rate cuts remains uncertain. Market rate - cut expectations retreated after the meeting, causing fluctuations in major assets [1][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pre - meeting Concerns: Is it the Prelude to a September Rate Cut? - Since the last meeting, US economic data has shown resilience, with some indicators having inflection signs. In June, core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, and the labor market cooled with 7.437 million job openings. GDP growth was affected by net exports, and the concern about stagflation remained [2]. - US and major economies' tariff policies became clearer in July, and market risk preferences continued to recover. Trump pressured the Fed to cut rates, but the market considered it a low - probability event that the Fed's independence would be impacted [2]. - Two key points for the meeting were whether the Fed would provide more guidance on the rate - cut path while keeping rates unchanged, and whether Fed理事沃勒 and鲍曼 would vote against the rate - hold decision, which would increase the uncertainty of the rate - cut expectation for the year [3]. 2. Meeting Content: No Guidance on Rate Cuts in September and Beyond, Cooling Market Expectations - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Fed理事鲍曼 and沃勒 voted against, preferring a 0.25% rate cut [4]. - At the press conference, Powell did not guide on a September rate cut, cooled the market's September rate - cut expectation. He thought the job market was balanced, inflation was moving towards 2%, service inflation slowed while commodity inflation rose, and economic growth slowed due to reduced consumer spending. The removal of the "uncertainty has decreased" statement had no special meaning, and the process of final tariff estimation was not near the end [5]. - The meeting emphasized economic cooling factors and showed internal differences. The signal was relatively neutral, and the implied probability of a September rate cut decreased. After the press conference, market rate - cut expectations retreated, and major assets fluctuated [6][7]. 3. Market Outlook: Tracking the Continuity of Geopolitical and Economic Stability, and the Implementation of Anti - Involution and Domestic Demand Expansion - After the June meeting, the report proposed to track three macro contradictions: the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on risk preferences, the progress of tariff negotiations, and domestic policies on expanding domestic demand [8]. - Since the June meeting, the Israel - Iran issue was quickly resolved, geopolitical risks were under control, tariff levels were determined, and domestic "anti - involution" policies were moving from expectation to implementation, with fiscal policies showing more signs of strength [8]. - The Fed maintained a wait - and - see attitude in July. Future macro contradictions should be observed from three aspects: geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and the smooth suspension of Sino - US tariffs, and the hedging effect of domestic policies on the decline in external demand [9][10][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two months, geopolitical risks did not cause spill - over effects, and the main line was to maintain stable geopolitical conflicts. Bilateral trade negotiations and tariff issues were under market attention, and China - US economic and trade conflicts maintained a stable stance. Domestic policies showed changes, with the "anti - involution" policy framework moving from expectation to implementation and the fiscal policy showing stronger signals of marginal efforts [3]. - The global risk preference has been repaired, and risk assets generally rose. The US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors corresponding to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong, and the pricing expectations for re - inflation and profit repair increased [8][9]. - In the next 1 - 2 months, continue to track geopolitical disturbances and the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension. Domestic policies should be tracked for their hedging effects on the decline in external demand. For financial products, the macro - liquidity is expected to remain stable and positive, and for commodities, the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the market is increasing [11][12][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Macro Operation Characteristics**: Geopolitical conflicts remained stable, trade negotiations were under market attention, and domestic policies changed. The "anti - involution" policy was expected to be implemented, and the fiscal policy showed marginal efforts [3]. - **Characteristics of Major Asset Operations**: Since mid - June, global risk preference has been repaired, risk assets generally rose, the US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors related to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: Track geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension, and the hedging effects of domestic policies on external demand [11][12]. 2. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: In July, the A - share market performed well, with the growth style stronger than the value style. The implementation of the long - term assessment mechanism for insurance funds and "anti - involution" policies supported the market. In August, if there is incremental capital inflow, the performance of equity assets is worth looking forward to, and attention should be paid to sector rotation [23]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since July, the bond market has been weak, and the yield curve has shown a "bear steepening" feature. In August, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond may continue to fluctuate within a range, and a curve steepening strategy is recommended [24][25]. 3. Commodities - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be under pressure and fluctuate. The coal market may have a tail - end upward period, and the PG/ crude oil ratio is expected to be suppressed. The natural gas market may be weak during the replenishment season [18][27][29]. - **Chemicals**: Propylene futures lack unilateral opportunities in the short term. Styrene is expected to continue its weak consolidation pattern. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [31][33][34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Polysilicon may remain oscillating strongly in the short term, and lithium can be considered for long - position replenishment after a correction. Alumina may face a callback risk, and copper prices may face resistance at integer levels [37][39]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of iron ore at high prices. Coking coal may be strong in the short term but face valuation pressure in the medium term. Ferroalloys are expected to rise first and then fall with a rising bottom [41][42][43]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oils, it is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils at low prices. Cotton is expected to oscillate at a high level [46][48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not explicitly stated, but the analysis implies a short - term upward support situation [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bearish trend according to the star - rating system [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, suggesting a bearish trend [1] - Asphalt: Not explicitly stated, with a neutral view on supply and weak demand but some price support [3] - LPG: ★☆☆, representing a bearish bias [1] Core View - The macro - economic and geopolitical factors have an impact on the energy market, with different products showing various trends. The overall energy market is affected by factors such as inventory changes, production adjustments, and demand fluctuations. The prices of these energy products generally follow the trend of crude oil to some extent, but each has its own supply - demand characteristics [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, global crude oil inventory has decreased by 1.9%, refined oil inventory has increased by 1.4%, and the overall petroleum inventory has decreased by 0.7% after increases in the first and second quarters. There are expectations for a more relaxed balance sheet after OPEC+ production returns. There are positive macro - economic expectations from trade agreements and negotiations. The short - term market has upward support [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Macro and geopolitical news boosts oil prices, but fuel - related futures' cracking spreads are expected to be under pressure. In July, the arrival volume in the Singapore market increased by 22.5% month - on - month to 6.55 million tons, and the demand for ship refueling weakened. The cracking spreads are likely to be in a weak and volatile state [2] Asphalt - The planned production in August decreased compared to July, but there are signs of potential production increases. Demand recovery is delayed in the South due to typhoons and is weak in the North. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The supply increase space is considered neutral, demand has a weak reality but a repair expectation, and the price is supported by low inventory and follows the crude oil trend with limited upward space [3] LPG - Traders are cautious about potential CP price cuts at the end of the month. Exports increase and put pressure on the overseas market. The import cost decline improves chemical profit margins, and the PDH operating rate has room to rise. The supply is relatively loose, and the market is under pressure, showing a weak and volatile trend [4]

Group 1: Energy - Brent crude oil's 08 contract rose slightly by 0.31%. The Iran - IAEA cooperation is suspended, and the Iran - US negotiation has no definite news. In the third - quarter peak season, the global oil inventory accumulation will narrow, but the loose situation is hard to change fundamentally under OPEC+ production increase pressure. Crude oil will run weakly with short - term fluctuations [1]. - Gold continued to adjust overnight, and silver was strong following non - ferrous metals. With the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, market risk appetite improved. Market focus will shift to tariff negotiations and the Fed [2]. Group 2: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices rose overnight. Overseas investment banks emphasized high import tariffs on copper. The market is concerned about the US trade negotiations in July, and the Fed's July interest - rate cut rhythm is also a focus. Short - term, Shanghai copper may rise to 81,000 yuan, and long - term, high - level short - allocation is recommended [3]. - Aluminum followed non - ferrous metals and was strong. Macro risk appetite improved, but the industrial level weakened slightly. The market has large differences, and short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread can be concerned [4]. - Alumina spot transactions were few. The northern spot index fell below 3,100 yuan, and overseas transactions rose slightly to $380. The domestic production capacity is in an over - supply state, and short - selling on rebounds is the main strategy [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy rose slightly following aluminum. The price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy is large, and if the spread between AL2511 and AD2511 expands, a long - AD and short - AL strategy can be considered [6]. - Zinc prices strengthened due to a strike at a zinc smelter, but the domestic zinc smelting capacity is still in surplus. It is advisable to seize short - allocation opportunities in the range of 22,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Nickel rebounded sharply. The impact of the loading progress of Philippine nickel mines on supply is limited, but the pressure on the mine end increases. Nickel iron inventory increased, and pure nickel inventory decreased. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - Tin prices rose. Overseas tin inventory decreased, and the domestic tin raw material supply is strong. Technically, it is advisable to participate in short - selling of far - month contracts in the range of 272,000 - 273,000 yuan [10]. Group 3: Chemicals - Lithium carbonate futures prices rebounded. The mentality of traders changed positively, and the bottom - fishing sentiment continued. The decline rate of Australian ore prices slowed down. Short - term, it will fluctuate [11]. - Industrial silicon futures prices rose and then fell. The market was affected by rumors of factory shutdowns and the rise of coking coal prices. The demand has marginal growth, and the upward space is limited [12]. - Polysilicon futures rebounded from a low level. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. The market is expected to fluctuate and repair near the key position of 30,000 yuan [13]. - Fuel oil (FU) was weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil (LU). The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is affected by high cracking valuations, while the cracking of LU rebounded from a low level [21]. - Asphalt supply may be compressed, and the terminal demand is expected to be boosted. The market is relatively strong [22]. - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has a relatively strong demand in the short - term, but the supply pressure is increasing. The market will fluctuate after the geopolitical impact fades [23]. - Urea's agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, but there is still some rigid demand. The export policy is relaxed, and the price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term [24]. - Methanol's import supply reduction expectation failed, but the port inventory decreased significantly. The market will sort out in the short - term [25]. - PVC cost increased, and the supply is still high. The demand is weak, and the long - term price will fluctuate at a low level. Caustic soda is strong at night, but the long - term price is expected to remain low [26]. - PX and PTA were boosted by the rebound of oil prices but are expected to fluctuate narrowly. The supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the basis and monthly spread may be under pressure [27]. - Ethylene glycol prices fell and then slowed down. The supply disturbance weakened, and the demand is expected to decline. The price will fluctuate at the bottom [28]. - Short - fiber inventory decreased, and the supply - demand situation is improving, but the profit is weakening. Bottle - chip inventory increased, and the processing margin is weakening. A parking plan in July may help repair the margin, but it should be treated with caution [29]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices strengthened at night. The demand for rebar is stable, and the inventory decline slows down. The demand for hot - rolled coil decreases, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The market will fluctuate, and the terminal demand and policies should be concerned [14]. - Iron ore prices rose overnight. The supply is under increasing pressure, and the demand has some resilience. The market is expected to fluctuate [15]. - Coke prices rose significantly. The market has expectations of a price increase. The inventory decreased, and the price may have an upward driving force [16]. - Coking coal prices rose significantly. The policy may strengthen the control of over - production, and the inventory decreased. The price may fluctuate strongly [17]. - Manganese silicon price volatility increased. The inventory decreased, and the production began to rise. Short - term, it is bullish [18]. - Silicon iron prices fluctuated upward. The demand is acceptable, and the supply decreased. The inventory decreased, and short - term, it is bullish [19]. Group 5: Shipping - The spot market of the container shipping index (European line) has no clear positive news. The far - month market may be affected by the resumption of shipping expectations after the easing of the Middle East situation [20]. Group 6: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal: Soybean meal futures fell 0.37% overnight. The drought in the US soybean - producing areas improved. The domestic spot price fell, and the inventory increased. The market will fluctuate before the planting area report [33]. - Soybean oil and palm oil: US soybeans are weak. The biodiesel development may support vegetable oil prices. Long - term, it is advisable to allocate vegetable oil at low prices, and short - term, wait for the planting area report [34]. - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil: The old - crop rapeseed inventory is tight, and the new - crop has weather uncertainties. The inventory in East China is abundant, and the demand is not good. Short - term, it is advisable to shift from bearish to waiting and seeing [35]. - Domestic soybeans fell. US soybeans are weak, and the domestic supply is supplemented by auctions. Short - term, pay attention to the US soybean planting area report [36]. - Corn futures fluctuated weakly. The spot market has no major contradictions. The expected increase in state - reserve auctions suppresses the increase. The inventory situation varies, and the market will fluctuate [37]. - Hog futures prices rebounded slightly, but the far - month contracts are weak. The short - term rebound space is limited, and long - term, pay attention to the inflection point of production capacity [38]. - Egg futures prices fluctuated downward. The supply capacity is still being released, and the old - hen culling is insufficient. Long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [39]. - Cotton prices: US cotton rose. The domestic cotton demand is weak, but the inventory is tight. It is advisable to buy at low prices [40]. - Sugar prices: US sugar fluctuated. The Brazilian policy is positive for sugar prices. The domestic sugar import is low, and the inventory pressure is light. The market will fluctuate [41]. - Apple prices fluctuated. The market demand decreased, and the focus is on the new - season output forecast. The output is expected to be bearish, and it is advisable to maintain a bearish strategy [42]. - Wood prices fluctuated. The supply from New Zealand will remain low, but the domestic demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. The suspension of the delivery of a futures brand has limited impact. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and the demand is weak. It will fluctuate weakly [44]. Group 7: Financial Products - Stock index: A - shares fluctuated lower, and index futures contracts fell slightly. The external market rose overnight. The market risk appetite improved, and it is advisable to increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [45]. - Treasury bonds: Treasury bond futures mostly fell. The central bank increased net investment to help liquidity cross the season smoothly. The bond market trading is dull, and short - term, pay attention to the risk of increased volatility [46].

Market Overview - The convertible bond market experienced narrow fluctuations during the week of June 9 to June 13, 2025, with the China Convertible Bond Index showing a change of 0% (previous week +1.1%) and the China All Share Index declining by 0.4% [3] - Year-to-date, the China Convertible Bond Index has increased by 4.7%, while the China All Share Index has risen by 1.3%, indicating that the convertible bond market has outperformed the equity market [3] Performance by Rating and Size - High-rated bonds (AA+ and above) saw a change of -0.11%, medium-rated bonds (AA) changed by -0.44%, and low-rated bonds (AA- and below) changed by -0.38%, with high-rated bonds experiencing the least decline [4] - In terms of bond size, large-scale convertible bonds (balance over 5 billion) increased by +0.43%, while medium-scale (5 to 50 billion) and small-scale (under 5 billion) bonds decreased by -0.39% and -0.34%, respectively, with large-scale bonds showing the highest increase [4] Price and Premium Analysis - The average price of convertible bonds is 121.63 yuan, with an average parity of 93.35 yuan and an average conversion premium rate of 30.0% as of June 13, 2025 [5][6] - The average conversion premium rate for medium parity convertible bonds (conversion value between 90 to 110 yuan) is 24.3%, which is higher than the median conversion premium rate of 19.8% since 2018 [6] Future Outlook - The convertible bond market's future performance will be influenced by economic negotiations, fundamental factors, and macro policies [7] - Current focus areas include convertible bonds linked to companies that can boost domestic demand and those involved in domestic substitution, particularly those with strong underlying stocks [7]

Group 1 - The United States and China have committed to significant tariff reductions, with the U.S. canceling a total of 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with a similar reduction [2][7] - Both countries will suspend the implementation of a 24% "reciprocal tariff" for an initial period of 90 days, while retaining a remaining 10% tariff [6][7] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the agreement includes a 90-day suspension period, but tariffs imposed during President Trump's first term remain unchanged, maintaining an overall tariff level of 30% on certain goods [7] Group 2 - Following the announcement, global stock markets experienced significant gains, with the S&P 500 futures rising by 1.35% and the Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.83% [9] - Major U.S. companies such as Tesla, AMD, and Nvidia saw notable stock price increases, reflecting positive market sentiment [9] - The progress in trade negotiations is expected to alleviate market concerns that arose from previous tariff implementations, potentially stabilizing consumer prices and demand [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the U.S. is actively seeking negotiations with China regarding tariff issues, indicating a sense of urgency from the U.S. side due to multiple pressures, including economic and public opinion [1] Group 1: U.S.-China Negotiations - Recent communications from the U.S. suggest a desire to engage in trade negotiations with China, with President Trump and his economic team frequently signaling this intention [1] - The article suggests that the U.S. is currently the more anxious party in these negotiations, driven by economic and public pressures [1] Group 2: China's Position - The article posits that China does not need to engage in talks until the U.S. takes substantial actions, but it can benefit from observing U.S. intentions during this period [1] - China is advised to maintain the initiative in negotiations, potentially using the situation to discern the U.S.'s true motives [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the U.S. is actively seeking negotiations with China regarding tariff issues, indicating a sense of urgency from the U.S. side due to multiple pressures, including economic and public opinion [1] Group 1: U.S.-China Negotiations - Recent communications from U.S. officials suggest a strong desire to engage China in trade discussions, particularly concerning tariffs [1] - The Trump administration is under significant pressure, which is driving the urgency for negotiations with China [1] - The article suggests that China should observe the U.S. intentions before engaging in talks, as it may provide leverage in the negotiations [1]