1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views Market Analysis - **First Stage (Late February - March 2):** On February 28, 2026, the US attacked Iran, and Israel and Iran clashed. On March 1, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed, and the Strait of Hormuz became congested. The涨幅 order was Brent > Methanol > (PX, PTA, BZ, EB, LL, PP, EG) > PVC. Chemicals' price increase was mainly due to cost - push from crude oil, and the supply - side logic was based on the proportion of production capacity in the Strait of Hormuz. Methanol had the largest proportion, followed by olefins, and aromatics also benefited from cost - push [4]. - **Second Stage (March 3 - Mid - March):** The涨幅 order was (BZ, EB) > Brent > (PX, PTA, BZ, EB, LL, PP) > (Methanol, EG, PVC). The logic shifted from cost - push to supply - reduction due to refinery and cracker cut - backs. Asian cracker cut - backs had a greater impact on pure benzene and styrene. EG and PVC followed the price increase slowly due to high inventory [5]. - **Third Stage (Mid - March):** The涨幅 order was PVC > (Brent, PX, PTA) > EG > Methanol > PP > LL > BZ > EB. Domestic and overseas refineries and crackers cut back production further. PVC, a low - valued product, had the fastest price increase, and EG also had a good price increase [6]. - **Fourth Stage (Since March 18):** The Middle - East situation worsened. The涨幅 order was Methanol > EG > PP, PE. Aromatics with low Middle - East production capacity performed worse than olefins [7]. Strategy - Maintain a cautious strategy of buying on dips for hedging for MA, PX, TA, BZ, EB, LL, PP, EG and other varieties [8] 3. Summary by Directory Background and Purpose - The report analyzes the impact of the Iran conflict on the chemical industry in four stages, summarizes the reduction of chemical production capacity at home and abroad, and predicts the trend of chemical products under different scenarios of the Iran situation and the Strait of Hormuz [13][14] First Stage: Iran War Breaks Out, Potential Supply Decline in Middle - East Chemicals and Crude Oil Cost - Push Logic - From late February to March 2, the price increase of chemicals was mainly due to cost - push from crude oil and the potential impact on overseas production capacity if the supply in the Strait of Hormuz was affected. Methanol was the most affected, followed by PE, EG, and PP. Aromatics were mainly affected by cost - push from crude oil. The涨幅 order was Brent > Methanol > (PX, PTA, BZ, EB, LL, PP, EG) > PVC [15][19] Second Stage: Crude Oil Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is Blocked, Supply Decline in Domestic and Overseas Refineries and Crackers - From March 3 to mid - March, the logic shifted to supply - reduction. Domestic refineries like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Asian refineries in South Korea cut production. Aromatics were the strongest, followed by olefins. EG and PVC followed the price increase slowly. The涨幅 order was (BZ, EB) > Brent > (PX, PTA, BZ, EB, LL, PP) > (Methanol, EG, PVC) [20][30] Third Stage: Crude Oil Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz Remains Blocked, Further Supply Decline in Domestic and Overseas Refineries and Crackers - In mid - March, domestic and overseas refineries and crackers cut production further. PX was the most affected, followed by other aromatics and olefins. PVC had the fastest price increase. The涨幅 order was PVC > (Brent, PX, PTA) > EG > Methanol > PP > LL > BZ > EB [31][38] Fourth Stage: Supply - Side Impact Focuses on the Middle - East, Not Just Asian Refinery Cracker Cut - Backs - Since March 18, the Middle - East situation worsened. The focus shifted to the potential supply decline in the Middle - East. Methanol, EG, PP, and PE had higher price increases, while aromatics performed worse [39][44] Analysis of Chemical Product Strategies under Different Iran War Scenarios - **Based on Current Supply - Demand Analysis:** MA > (PX, PTA > BZ, EB) > (PP > LL > EG) > PVC [45][46] - **Saudi Arabia Not Further Involved, Strait of Hormuz Blocked, Refinery Cut - Backs Continue:** Chemical products will continue to rise, and profits may expand. The impact on specific products depends on the degree of refinery cut - backs [46] - **Middle - East War Escalates:** - If Iran attacks Saudi Jubail, EG > (PP, PE) > EB [46] - If Iran attacks Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait, the direct impact on chemicals is small, but propane for PP is more affected [46] - If Iran's South Pars Gas Field is continuously attacked, methanol ranks first [47] - **Strait of Hormuz Reopens:** Chemical prices will decline. PP may be more resilient, and aromatics from South Korea and Japan may also be relatively strong [48]