1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - PE shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The high supply may continue to suppress the upside space of the polyethylene market, and it will mainly maintain a volatile consolidation pattern in the short - term. PP still has supply - demand contradictions, with the cost support strengthening slightly but still having a loosening expectation, and the market will continue to show a wide - range volatile trend. The supply surplus pressure may suppress the upward rebound space [3]. - The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; for inter - period trading, conduct a sell - near - buy - far spread for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices; there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the L main contract is 6,818 yuan/ton (+30), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6,480 yuan/ton (+20). The LL spot price in North China is 6,800 yuan/ton (+0), the LL spot price in East China is 6,850 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP spot price in East China is 6,480 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North China is - 18 yuan/ton (-30), the LL basis in East China is 32 yuan/ton (-30), and the PP basis in East China is 0 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. 3.1.2 Upstream Supply - The PE operating rate is 83.1% (+0.5%), and the PP operating rate is 79.6% (+1.8%) [1]. 3.1.3 Production Profit - The PE oil - based production profit is 288.4 yuan/ton (+187.2), the PP oil - based production profit is - 321.6 yuan/ton (+187.2), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 219.6 yuan/ton (-113.8) [1]. 3.1.4 Import and Export - The LL import profit is - 29.4 yuan/ton (+43.1), the PP import profit is - 185.3 yuan/ton (-19.7), and the PP export profit is - 3.3 US dollars/ton (+2.5) [2]. 3.1.5 Downstream Demand - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 50.0% (+0.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.4% (-0.4%), the PP downstream woven plastic operating rate is 44.2% (-0.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.6% (+0.2%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 PE - Supply: The supply pressure is continuously high. Newly added maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Line 1 and Zhongsha Petrochemical linear device, but the maintenance devices are restarting one after another, and the PE operating rate is continuously increasing. In addition, the newly added production capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually being released [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate of PE has decreased month - on - month. The increase in the agricultural film operating rate has slowed down, and the demand is expected to shrink after late November. The packaging film operating rate has decreased month - on - month, and the overall demand follow - up is still limited [3]. - Cost: The oil price has rebounded slightly after a decline, but the rebound space is limited due to supply - demand pressure, and the PE oil - based cost support is insufficient [3]. 3.2.2 PP - Supply: There is still an oversupply pattern. The 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical has been put into trial production, some devices are under maintenance, and some temporary maintenance has alleviated the market supply pressure to a certain extent, but the improvement of the supply - side oversupply pattern is still limited [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate is gradually weakening, mainly replenishing inventory on a rigid basis at low prices. The demand pull of the e - commerce festival is less than that of the same period, and the demand support is relatively limited [3]. - Cost: The international oil price fluctuates widely, the external propane price rebounds slightly, and the PP cost support strengthens slightly but still has a loosening expectation [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The PE market is under pressure due to factors such as increased inventory, insufficient demand, new device production, and weakened cost support from falling oil prices. Future focus should be on cost - side disturbances [2] - The PP market is affected by weakening costs (falling oil and propane prices). Supply is increasing while demand fails to meet expectations, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation. Short - term pressure on the PP market is high, and attention should be paid to the impact on propane supply and marginal device operations [2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both L and PP in the single - side trading. For cross - period trading, conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05. For cross - variety trading, shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [3] Summaries by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6929 yuan/ton (+19), and the PP main contract is 6618 yuan/ton (+23). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 81.8% (-2.2%), and PP operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 434.2 yuan/ton (-18.2), PP oil - based production profit is - 135.8 yuan/ton (-18.2), and PDH - based PP production profit is 64.9 yuan/ton (-109.7) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 165.0 yuan/ton (-56.8), PP import profit is - 537.9 yuan/ton (+16.1), and PP export profit is 26.9 dollars/ton (+3.3) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.3% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.2% (+0.5%) [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, inventory of major plastic producers has increased significantly. Demand is insufficient, and new device production and falling oil prices have weakened cost support. Supply is expected to increase, demand is lower than expected, and cost support is weakening. Future focus should be on cost - side disturbances [2] - **PP**: The recent weakening of the PP market is due to falling oil and propane prices. Supply is increasing, demand fails to meet expectations, and cost support is weak. Short - term pressure on the PP market is high, and attention should be paid to propane supply and marginal device operations [2] Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see for both L and PP [3] - **Cross - period**: Reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [3] - **Cross - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [3]

聚烯烃周报 | 2025-10-12 聚烯烃节后大幅累库，价格承压偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7037元/吨（-40），PP主力合约收盘价为6722元/吨（-23），LL华北现货为7000 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7100元/吨（-10），PP华东现货为6670元/吨（-10），LL华北基差为-37元/吨（+40），LL 华东基差为73元/吨（+10）， PP华东基差为-42元/吨（-47）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.9%（+1.9%），PP开工率为77.7%（+1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为542.8元/吨（+157.6），PP油制生产利润为-127.2元/吨（+157.6），PDH制PP生产 利润为-99.0元/吨（-270.1）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为10.8元/吨（+52.2），PP进口利润为-547.8元/吨（-73.5），PP出口利润为17.5美元/吨（+9.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为35.6%（+2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工 率为44.3%（+0.4%），PP下游B ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Recently, the cost - end oil price has rebounded, and the external propane price has risen strongly. With the support of macro - sentiment, polyolefins have rebounded slightly with fluctuations. Some upstream petrochemical plants have shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. There is an expectation of new capacity from ExxonMobil, and Daxie Petrochemical is continuously increasing production, so the supply is still under pressure. The downstream demand is in the "Golden September" seasonal improvement stage, with the overall downstream factory operating rate rising slightly. However, the downstream mainly maintains rigid procurement, and the demand fulfillment rate is still slow. PP production profit has shrunk significantly, and the cost - end support is strong [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7,245 yuan/ton (+11), PP main contract at 6,982 yuan/ton (+12). LL North China spot was 7,200 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot was 7,170 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 6,780 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 45 yuan/ton (-11), LL East China basis was - 75 yuan/ton (-11), and PP East China basis was - 202 yuan/ton (-12) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 78.0% (-2.5%), PP operating rate was 76.8% (-3.1%) [2] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 170.9 yuan/ton (-70.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 459.1 yuan/ton (-70.8), and PDH - based PP production profit was - 303.0 yuan/ton (-12.1) [2] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 92.1 yuan/ton (+10.2), PP import profit was - 482.1 yuan/ton (-9.8), and PP export profit was 29.1 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 24.1% (+3.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 51.3% (+0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 43.1% (+0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.6% (+0.1%) [2] Market Analysis - Cost - end factors and macro - sentiment have driven polyolefins to rebound slightly. Supply is under pressure due to potential new capacity and production increases. Downstream demand is in a seasonal improvement stage, but the demand fulfillment is slow, and PP cost - end support is strong [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral; inter - period strategy is 01 - 05 reverse spread; no inter - variety strategy [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Short coal - based profit [3] Core Viewpoints - Policy promotes the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and the macro - level has a certain boost to the polyolefin market. New device overhauls in production enterprises ease some supply - demand pressure, but some devices restart. PE upstream and mid - stream inventory trends continue to rise, and PP production enterprise inventory continues to accumulate. Crude oil is weakly sorted, propane prices continue to be weak, cost - side support is weak. Downstream demand remains weak in the seasonal consumption off - season, and new order volume is limited. In the short - term future, there are no new overhaul plans, and supply is expected to increase. With weak fundamentals, inventory is expected to continue rising [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7290元/吨（+74），PP主力合约收盘价为7091元/吨（+78），LL华北现货为7200元/吨（+80），LL华东现货为7190元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+50），LL华北基差为 - 90元/吨（+6），LL华东基差为 - 100元/吨（ - 74），PP华东基差为29元/吨（ - 28） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.2% (+0.4%), PP operating rate is 77.3% (+0.7%). PE oil - based production profit is 74.8 yuan/ton (+14.8), PP oil - based production profit is - 285.2 yuan/ton (+14.8), PDH - based PP production profit is 315.8 yuan/ton (+14.0) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data presented in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is - 142.0 yuan/ton (-4.8), PP import profit is - 694.2 yuan/ton (-5.0), PP export profit is 36.8 US dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.5% (-0.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.6% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 41.4% (-0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.8% (+0.2%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - PE upstream and mid - stream inventory trends continue to rise, and PP production enterprise inventory continues to accumulate. In the future, with weak fundamentals, inventory is expected to continue rising [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of polyolefins maintain a loose supply - demand pattern with supply exceeding demand. During the maintenance season of upstream petrochemical plants, the number of maintenance enterprises increases slightly, capacity utilization declines, and new production capacity continues to be released. Overall, the supply side shows an incremental trend. Enterprises' inventories accumulate, and the destocking rate is slow. International oil prices and propane prices remain weak and are expected to continue this way, with weak cost support. PDH - made PP maintains a small profit. In the off - season, downstream demand shows no significant improvement, the operating rate remains low, with mainly rigid - demand purchases and insufficient follow - up of terminal orders [2] Summary by Catalog I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts, as well as the basis between LL East China and the main contract, and PP East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE oil - based production profit is 172.1 yuan/ton (+88.6), PP oil - based production profit is - 237.9 yuan/ton (+88.6), and PDH - made PP production profit is 192.5 yuan/ton (-38.7). PE operating rate is 77.8% (-1.7%), and PP operating rate is 76.6% (-0.8%) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The report shows the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawing East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawing East China [28][36][37] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 133.0 yuan/ton (+0.3), PP import profit is - 648.1 yuan/ton (-19.7), and PP export profit is 31.2 US dollars/ton (+2.4) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.6% (+0.5%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.1% (-0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (-0.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.6% (+0.3%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The report mentions the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports, but does not provide specific data [72][75][77] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: Reverse spread of 09 - 01; - Cross - variety: Short coal - based profits [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for plastics is cautiously bearish, and there is no recommendation for inter - term trading [3] Core View - Downstream demand follow - up is weak, and the market is weakly consolidating. The market has returned to fundamental trading. The downstream demand is in the off - season. The agricultural film operating rate is at a low level, the packaging film operating rate fluctuates slightly, and the operating rates of industries such as plastic weaving and BOPP have slightly increased. The traditional consumption off - season is coming, and terminal factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement and general inventory - building enthusiasm, mainly for rigid demand procurement. The number of PE maintenance devices has increased, and the PE supply side has eased. The previously shut - down PP devices have gradually restarted, and the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has decreased. It is expected that the future supply will increase. Due to the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the production profit of PDH - made PP has recovered. Attention should be paid to the restart of shut - down devices [2] Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Analyzed the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as PP East China and the main contract [1][8][9][12] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 78.0% (- 1.4%), and the PP operating rate is 76.8% (+ 0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit is 533.8 yuan/ton (- 100.1), the PP oil - based production profit is 93.8 yuan/ton (- 100.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 290.9 yuan/ton (+ 7.5) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Analyzed the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire in East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire in East China [28][35][36] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit is - 91.0 yuan/ton (- 10.0), the PP import profit is - 574.5 yuan/ton (+ 3.2), and the PP export profit is 17.7 US dollars/ton (- 0.3) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 14.1% (- 2.6%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.2% (+ 0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 45.7% (+ 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.2% (+ 0.2%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Analyzed the inventories of PE oil - based enterprises, PE coal - chemical enterprises, PE traders, PE ports, PP oil - based enterprises, PP coal - chemical enterprises, PP traders, and PP ports [72][76][86][87]