Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, suggesting investment opportunities in high-quality refining companies and upstream oil service firms [2][3]. Core Insights - The current oil bear market is characterized by a prolonged duration, with expectations that it will not last much longer. Oil prices may continue to test lower levels due to supply-demand imbalances, but significant support is anticipated around the marginal cost of production for shale oil, estimated at approximately $62.5 per barrel [3][4][11]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude futures at $63.9 per barrel and WTI at $60.79 per barrel as of May 23, 2025. This has led to an increase in day rates for self-elevating drilling rigs [3][24]. - The refining sector is seeing improved profitability due to rising product crack spreads, although the overall margins remain low. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in refining profitability as domestic and overseas refining capacities adjust [3][54]. - The polyester sector is facing mixed performance, with PTA profitability declining while polyester filament profitability is on the rise. The report suggests monitoring demand changes closely [3]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude futures decreased by 1.36% to $63.9 per barrel, while WTI fell by 1.2% to $60.79 per barrel as of May 23, 2025. The average prices for the week were $64.36 and $61.19 respectively [24]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels to 440 million barrels, which is 6% lower than the five-year average for the same period [27]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to 563, down by 3 from the previous week and 37 year-on-year [34]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin increased to $12.86 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread decreased to $22.49 per barrel [3]. - The report indicates that refining margins are expected to improve gradually as domestic and overseas refining capacities adjust [3][54]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price decreased to 4899 RMB per ton, while the polyester filament price spread increased to 1389 RMB per ton [3]. - The report highlights the need to monitor demand changes closely, as the polyester industry is currently in a seasonal downturn [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as upstream oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [3][19]. - It also suggests that the long-term outlook for the polyester sector remains positive, with a focus on leading companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [3][19].