Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "Oscillating Upward", and the strategy is to "Sell Short at High Prices" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ is gradually increasing production, and there is a possibility of accelerating production increases. The actual production increase in May was lower than planned, and the implementation of compensatory production cuts is yet to be verified. The U.S. crude oil production is near a historical high, and with other non-OPEC+ countries releasing production capacity and the potential signing of the Iran nuclear deal, there is significant pressure on crude oil supply [1] - The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, and some economic cooperation agreements have been reached. However, the pessimistic expectations of the economic damage caused by the trade war have not been fully reversed. Currently, it is the off-season for global crude oil consumption. With the potential signing of the Iran nuclear deal, the crude oil price has reached a resistance level, and there is still downward pressure on crude oil [1] - The signing of the Iran nuclear deal is not as optimistic as previously expected, and there are geopolitical risks, but the probability of Israel attacking Iranian nuclear facilities in the near future is low under U.S. pressure [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2507 contract, rose 1.18% to 470.1 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 462.1 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 475.6 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1234 to 29076 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. The IEA raises the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 20,000 barrels to 740,000 barrels per day, and expects the growth rate to slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025. The 2026 forecast is raised by 70,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day. The IEA also raises the 2025 global oil supply forecast by 380,000 barrels per day to 1.6 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. EIA data shows that for the week ending May 9, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.454 million barrels, exceeding expectations. The gasoline inventory decreased by 1.022 million barrels, and the refined oil inventory decreased by 3.155 million barrels, both exceeding expectations. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 1.069 million barrels [3] - On the supply side, OPEC's March crude oil production was revised down by 4,000 barrels per day to 26.772 million barrels per day, and its April 2025 production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 26.71 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Venezuela and Iran. The U.S. crude oil production increased by 20,000 barrels per day week-on-week to 13.387 million barrels per day in the week of May 9 [4] - According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 19.836 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.80%. The weekly demand for gasoline increased by 0.88% to 8.794 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 9.006 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.77%. The weekly demand for diesel increased by 7.27% to 3.777 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.688 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.38%. However, the supply of propane decreased significantly, causing the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to decrease by 2.17% month - on - month [4]