阿根廷20船大豆撬动的全球贸易战，美国豆农在焦虑中等待转机 一、关税战下的市场份额流失：美国豆农的"绝望收割季" 2025年9月，美国中西部农田里，收割机轰隆作响，但农场主们脸上不见丰收的喜悦。 "大豆价格从每蒲式耳15美元暴跌到9美元，我今年可能损失40万美 元！ "威斯康星州豆农雷伯特攥着枯萎的豆荚，语气苦涩。 他的焦虑代表了许多美国豆农的现状：中国订单量至今为零，而往年此时，美国新季大豆应有 8?%被中国预订。 问题的根源直指关税政策。 美国大豆协会主席拉格兰坦言："不是阿根廷抢了市场，是关税把机会拱手让人。 " 2025年4月，中国对美大豆加征10%关税， 综合税率达13%，美豆进口成本每吨增加335元，较巴西大豆价差扩大至500元以上。 结果残酷：2025年上半年，中国自美大豆进口量同比下降39%，美国 在中国市场的份额从巅峰期的60%萎缩至21%。 二、阿根廷的"免税窗口"：经济危机中的务实选择 面对国内140%的通胀率和见底的外汇储备，阿根廷总统米莱在9月24日打出"生存牌"：暂取消谷物出口税，大豆关税从26%降为零。 政策立竿见影，两天 内，中国进口商扫货20船（130万吨），为阿根廷创收超7 ...

Core Insights - Approximately 70% of CEOs surveyed believe that Trump's tariffs have harmed their companies [1] - 74% of respondents agree with the court's ruling that the tariffs are illegal [1] - Despite Trump's intention to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., 62% of CEOs have not increased investments in U.S. manufacturing or infrastructure since early April [1] - 80% of CEOs think Trump's request for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates is not in the best interest of the country [1] - About 70% of respondents believe recent government actions have undermined the independence of the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The seventh Baltic Sea Investment Forum opened in Leningrad Oblast, Russia, highlighting the region's investment potential and fostering dialogue between businesses and governments [1] Group 1: Investment Agreements - Four investment agreements are planned to be signed at the forum, with a total value exceeding 8.8 billion rubles [1] - Some agreements will focus on expanding existing enterprises in the region, while others will involve the establishment of new businesses [1] Group 2: Key Topics - The main topics of discussion at this year's forum include global trade wars and the risks of economic recession [1] - The forum will also facilitate public dialogue between businesses and government entities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings provided in the content. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - OPEC+ plans to increase production, and the global oil surplus is expected to intensify in Q4. The end of the consumption peak season, poor US non - farm employment, and global trade wars have led to weakening crude oil demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [8][9]. Asphalt - In September, asphalt supply and demand are expected to increase. The cost - side support is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on asphalt and short on crude oil or conduct range trading [3][62]. PVC - PVC supply is high, exports are expected to weaken, and the real - estate market is still in adjustment. Although September is the traditional peak season, the improvement is limited. It is expected to decline and recommended to short on rallies [3][111]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin production remains high, and downstream demand is expected to improve marginally in September. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to fluctuate. Range trading is recommended [3][154]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil Core View - Crude oil supply and demand are weakening. OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and demand is affected by factors such as the end of the consumption peak season and poor non - farm employment. It is recommended to short on rallies [8][9]. Investment Strategy - Short on rallies [10]. Market Review - In August, domestic crude oil prices fell. The price rose in late July due to geopolitical factors and then declined due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and concerns about the US economy [14]. Position and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 19, WTI non - commercial net long positions increased slightly compared to the previous week but decreased significantly compared to the end of July. As of August 27, Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipts increased compared to the end of July but remained at a low level [18]. Production - OPEC's June production decreased, while July production increased. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September. US crude oil production increased in the week of August 22 [22]. Drilling Rigs - In August, the number of US oil drilling rigs continued to decrease and stabilized recently. As of August 22, it was 411, 4 less than in the week of July 25 [26]. Imports and Exports - As of August 22, US crude oil imports decreased, and exports also decreased. Imports were at a neutral - low level, and exports were at a neutral - high level [30]. China's Processing and Imports - China's July crude oil processing volume increased month - on - month and was at a high level in the same period over the years. Imports increased month - on - month and were at a neutral - high level in the same period [34]. US Economic Data - In August, US inflation data showed different trends. CPI remained stable, PPI increased significantly, and PCE inflation was in line with expectations [38]. Crack Spreads - In August, US and European gasoline and diesel crack spreads increased [42]. Demand - EIA and other institutions have different forecasts for global oil supply and demand. US gasoline and diesel demand increased week - on - week [46]. Inventory - As of August 22, US crude oil, gasoline, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories changed. Crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, and the strategic petroleum reserve increased [50][54]. Geopolitical Risks - There are ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, which may affect the oil market [56]. Asphalt Core View - Supply and demand are expected to increase in September. The cost - side support is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on asphalt and short on crude oil or conduct range trading [62]. Market Review - In August, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio increased, and the asphalt basis fell to a neutral level [70][73]. Production and Consumption - July asphalt production and apparent consumption increased. As of August 29, the national asphalt shipment volume increased [81][85]. Supply and Profit - In August, the asphalt operating rate decreased and was at a low level in the same period. The spot - end profit loss in Shandong Province narrowed slightly [89]. Downstream - From January to July, road transportation investment and national highway construction investment decreased year - on - year. As of August 29, the downstream operating rate was mostly stable [101][106]. PVC Core View - Supply is high, exports are expected to weaken, and the real - estate market is still in adjustment. Although September is the traditional peak season, the improvement is limited. It is expected to decline and recommended to short on rallies [111]. Market Review - There is no clear market review information provided. Upstream - In August, calcium carbide prices fell and then were expected to rise slightly. The calcium carbide operating rate increased slightly but remained low, and losses increased. The semi - coke operating rate rose, and prices increased, but losses did not narrow [120]. Production - July PVC production increased, and the maintenance loss also increased [124]. Operating Rate - As of August 29, the PVC operating rate decreased to 76.02% but remained at a relatively high level in the same period [128]. Imports and Exports - In July, PVC imports increased, and exports decreased compared to the previous month but remained at a high level in the same period. India's anti - dumping tax is expected to weaken China's PVC exports in the second half of the year [135]. Real - Estate Data - From January to July, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased year - on - year. As of August 31, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased slightly but remained at a low level in the same period [139]. Downstream Operating Rate - As of August 29, the PVC downstream average operating rate decreased to 42.60% and was at a low level in the same period [144]. Inventory - As of August 28, PVC social inventory increased and remained high [148]. Polyolefins Core View - In September, production remains high, and downstream demand is expected to improve marginally. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to fluctuate. Range trading is recommended [154]. Market Review - Futures prices fell, and spot prices were stable. The basis of plastics and PP rebounded slightly but remained at a low level [165][169]. Production - In July, PE and PP production increased, with high - level maintenance for PP [174][181]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of PE and PP increased recently and were at a neutral level [178][185]. Imports and Exports - In July, PE imports decreased, and exports increased. PP imports decreased, and exports increased. The net imports of both are expected to decline [192][198]. Downstream - From January to July, the cumulative production of plastic products increased, and the export amount decreased slightly. As of August 29, the downstream operating rates of PE and PP increased slightly but remained at a low level in the same period [202][206]. Inventory - As of August 29, petrochemical inventory decreased and was at a neutral level in the same period [210]. Profit - In August, coal - based and oil - based PE profits changed. Coal - based PP was profitable, while other processes were mostly in losses [215].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices reached a two-week high of $3,400 before declining towards $3,375, with market optimism ahead of U.S. data releases and a weakening dollar [1][11] Technical Analysis - A breakthrough above $3,400 is crucial for a sustained upward trend, with the RSI indicator remaining bullish [1] - The 14-day RSI is currently at 57.00, indicating a positive short-term outlook for gold as long as it stays above 50 [3] - The bullish crossover remains intact, with the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) closing above the 50-day SMA, confirming a bullish signal [4] - Resistance is noted at the $3,400 level, with a potential static resistance at $3,440 if this level is breached [5] - On the downside, sellers may test the 21-day moving average at $3,359, and a drop below this could challenge the 50-day moving average at $3,348 [6] - A solid support level is identified at the 100-day moving average of $3,328, with a sustained drop below this level negating any positive mid-term trends [7] Fundamental Analysis - Gold buyers are pausing ahead of significant U.S. economic data releases, including GDP revisions, unemployment claims, and pending home sales, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on potential rate cuts [8] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, particularly after dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams [8] - Williams emphasized the need to observe upcoming economic data before deciding on rate cuts, which contributed to a strong rebound in gold prices [8] - Ongoing tensions between President Trump and Fed Governor Lisa Cook may limit downward pressure on gold prices, as Trump's attacks on Fed independence and dovish expectations persist [10] - The escalating global trade war, including increased tariffs from Mexico and Canada on China, and potential U.S. tariffs on India, may sustain gold's safe-haven demand [10]

Group 1 - The global trade war is intensifying, with significant developments occurring this week, particularly the United States ending the de minimis rule for small shipments [1] - Observing megatrends can provide insights into societal advancements and potential investment opportunities, despite the challenges in identifying them [1] - The importance of fundamentals, quality of leadership, and product pipeline is emphasized for uncovering investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The focus has shifted towards marketing and business strategy for medium-sized companies and startups, highlighting the relevance of these aspects in the current market [1] - The analyst has experience in international development and evaluating startups and emerging technologies, indicating a broad understanding of various industries [1]

Group 1 - Eurozone industrial output fell by 1.3% in June, worse than the expected decline of 1.0%, primarily due to significant drops in Germany and weak consumer goods production [1] - The revision of May's output growth from 1.7% to 1.1% indicates a weaker underlying trend than previously anticipated [1] - The second quarter GDP growth of 0.1% aligns with initial estimates, while employment growth of 0.1% matches expectations but is lower than the previous quarter's 0.2% [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year economic growth of 1.4% in the second quarter was driven by a surge in demand before the implementation of US tariffs, but this growth is expected to slow down until a potential recovery in 2026 [2] - The monthly industrial output decline was mainly attributed to Germany (-2.3%) and Ireland (-11.3%), with the latter's data being affected by tax maneuvers of multinational pharmaceutical companies [2] - All sectors, except for energy production, experienced contraction last month, with non-durable consumer goods (-4.7%) and capital goods (-2.2%) leading the decline [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the inflationary pressures on certain tariff-sensitive food products, particularly coffee, specialty teas, and spices, which are causing concern among small businesses in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Price Increases and Consumer Impact - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicates that while overall food prices remained stable month-over-month, they are still 2.9% higher compared to the same time last year [1] - Coffee prices have seen a significant year-over-year increase of 14.5%, with the average retail price for ground coffee reaching $8.41 per pound [1] - Small businesses, such as Bethany's Coffee in Lincoln, Nebraska, have raised coffee prices by 18% to 25% since January, reflecting the rapid changes in costs [1] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Approximately 74% of U.S. food imports, valued at around $163 billion, are subject to tariffs, impacting the cost structure for companies reliant on imported goods [1] - Companies like Anjali's Cup, which sources nearly all its coffee and spice ingredients from overseas, face challenges in adjusting to higher tariffs, particularly a 50% tariff on Indian tea [2][3] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to force small businesses to choose between maintaining product quality and staying operational, potentially leading to market exits [3] Group 3: Broader Market Effects - The impact of tariffs is anticipated to extend beyond individual businesses, affecting grocery stores and the overall product variety available to consumers [3] - Changes in supply sources due to tariffs may lead to a shift in the types of products available year-round, as noted by industry experts [3] - The global trade tensions are viewed as detrimental to the vitality of the U.S. market, particularly for unique and high-quality products [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government's imposition of punitive tariffs on African economies, highlighting the need for African nations to diversify their trade strategies and reduce reliance on the U.S. market [1][3] Group 1: Economic Impact - The punitive tariffs are expected to exacerbate the economic vulnerability of African countries, which are already facing challenges such as debt crises and climate disasters [1] - Kenya is projected to lose 600,000 jobs and experience significant fiscal revenue losses due to the tariff impacts [1] Group 2: Trade Strategy - The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) is progressing, but intra-African trade only accounts for 18% of total African trade, which is insufficient to mitigate the effects of global trade disruptions [3] - To effectively counter the impact of U.S. tariffs, African nations need to implement trade diversification strategies, strengthen regional trade under the AfCFTA framework, and deepen cooperation with BRICS countries [3]

Core Viewpoint - Polypropylene futures showed a slight decline of 0.17%, closing at 7062.00 yuan, with expectations of short-term fluctuations in the market [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Ningzheng Futures predicts that the PP01 contract will experience short-term fluctuations due to increased polypropylene production and overall ample supply, with commercial inventory rising above levels seen in the same period over the past two years [1] - Guantong Futures also anticipates recent fluctuations in the PP market, suggesting a 09-01 reverse spread strategy, citing limited new orders and weak downstream purchasing intentions [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in polypropylene production capacity, particularly with the upcoming launch of CNOOC's Ningbo Daxie PP plant in August, contributes to the supply side, while downstream recovery remains slow due to seasonal weather conditions [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's upcoming release of a new plan for ten key industries, including petrochemicals, aims to stabilize growth, although no concrete policies have yet been implemented in the polypropylene sector [1]