【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2026.1.5 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡、碳酸锂） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025. 12. 31 2025. 12. 26 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | | 2025. 12. 31 2025. 12. 26 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2602 | 98240 | 98720 | -480 | -0. 49% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 99280 | 97865 | 1415 | 1. 45% | ...

今年中美关系的紧张局势非常严重，特朗普一上任就启动了关税战，看起来他是在有意制造矛盾。1月份，他签署了行政命令，对中国进口的钢铁和电子产 品加征了10%的关税，结果北京也没有示弱，2月4日就对美国农产品和汽车实施了相同的税率。3月，美国将关税提高至54%，这让全球供应链出现混乱， 美国企业急忙寻找本地货源，而中国港口则从欧洲和亚洲进口货物以应对。4月，美国的关税再次飙升至104%，中国也加征了84%的关税，全球经济形势变 得更加困难。到了5月12日，两国才进行了谈判，关税最终降回了10%，目前中国对美出口的关税最多达到27%。这一系列的关税变化让普通百姓多花了 钱，企业也只能咬牙坚持。国际货币基金组织（IMF）先是下调了两国的增长预期，7月又将全球增长预期上调至3%。 中国的军舰也与美日菲的军演发生了互动，6月，中国的山东航母进入日本的经济专属区，展示了对该地区的控制力。中国的军费也增长了7.2%，以应对不 断增加的军事威胁。全球军费也创下了2.46万亿美元的新纪录，美国仍是其中的领头羊。特朗普对欧盟实施了15%的关税，这对美国的经济产生了不小的影 响。IMF指出，美国的价格上涨了2.1%，而中国则将生产转移 ...

在越南与美国达成协议，接受对美出口商品征收20%的关税，并全面向美国开放市场后，柬埔寨和印度尼西亚也纷纷与美国签署了贸易协定。这一系列协议 的达成，反映了美国在重塑区域贸易规则方面的战略目标，同时也意味着美国的霸权进一步渗透到全球各地。柬埔寨通过与美国的协定，成功将原定的49% 惩罚性关税降低至20%；而印尼则通过签订价值340亿美元的协议，向美国企业优先开放了镍矿资源。这些动作显示出美国在全球经济格局中的新一轮布 局，尤其是在东南亚地区。 在此情况下，美国要求柬埔寨建立全流程的溯源体系，确保每批出口商品符合严格的原产地标准。对于依赖我国34%纺织原料的柬埔寨来说，这无疑是一个 巨大的挑战。柬埔寨的本土生产成本因此增加了8%到12%，大大压缩了企业利润。此外，柬埔寨与美国签署的协议中还附带了强制采购美国农产品的条 款，预计会对柬埔寨的稻米出口造成冲击，并使当地农民的收入面临严重下降。这些因素使得柬埔寨在与美国的合作中处于不利地位，实际上这是出于无奈 的选择。 同样，印度尼西亚与美国签署的340亿美元协议也充满了隐忧。印尼是全球最大的镍矿生产国，其资源储量占全球的24%。通过向美企开放镍矿优先采购 权，印尼将自 ...

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon, maintains a long-term bearish outlook on the US dollar, predicting a 13.5% decline during Trump's remaining term despite a recent rebound [1]. Group 1: Dollar Performance and Predictions - The US dollar has fallen over 8% this year, potentially marking its worst year in eight years, influenced by unpredictable trade policies and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2]. - Jen's "dollar smile" theory suggests that the dollar tends to strengthen during periods of strong economic performance or deep recession, while it struggles during moderate growth phases [3]. - Jen anticipates that the next significant movement for the dollar will be downward, despite its recent rebound [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - Jen argues that the decline in the dollar is primarily due to capital leaving US dollar assets rather than being attracted to other regions, indicating a soft landing for the US economy [3]. - The International Monetary Fund forecasts a slowdown in US GDP growth from 2.8% last year to 2% in 2025, while the Eurozone is expected to grow by 1.2%, up from 0.9% in 2024 [4]. - Jen believes that the global economic performance is likely to surpass that of the US, with improving growth in Europe [3][4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Jen describes the current situation as a "multi-year dollar adjustment," suggesting that the weak dollar cycle will be prolonged [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court is questioning the legality of the "global tariffs" policy implemented by former President Trump, which could lead to the cancellation of tariffs affecting various retail brands [1][3] - A ruling against Trump could result in the government needing to refund over $100 billion to importers, alleviating a significant burden on companies [1][3] - Non-essential consumer goods stocks are performing well, with notable increases in companies like Lululemon (up 4.3%), Williams Sonoma (up 2.6%), Kohl's (up 8.9%), Macy's (up 7%), and Mattel (up 4%) [1] Group 2 - The hope for tariff reductions is also boosting the stock prices of major automakers like General Motors and Ford, despite them not being directly affected by the ruling [2] - Analysts suggest that a favorable ruling for retailers could enhance consumer purchasing power, indirectly benefiting automobile sales [2] - The Supreme Court's questioning during the hearings indicates skepticism about Trump's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, suggesting potential overreach [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing volatility in the U.S. stock market, with a record number of individual stocks experiencing daily market value fluctuations exceeding $100 billion, totaling 119 occurrences this year, surpassing previous years significantly [2][4]. Market Volatility - The U.S. stock market has seen a historic high in daily market value changes, with major tech stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple contributing to the largest fluctuations [2][4]. - The volatility is exacerbated by macroeconomic concerns, including renewed tariff risks and potential regional banking crises similar to the Silicon Valley Bank situation [2][4]. Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and end quantitative tightening was met with a hawkish stance from Chairman Powell, leading to a sharp decline in market expectations for future rate cuts [2][4]. Derivatives Market Influence - The derivatives market is identified as a key driver of increased volatility, with retail investors and hedge funds heavily betting on individual stocks, prompting market makers to hedge their positions, which amplifies price movements [5][6]. - The trading volume of single-stock options has reached its highest level since the retail trading boom in 2021, with retail investors accounting for 60% of this market [5][6]. Leverage and Market Dynamics - The rise of leveraged products, including double or triple leveraged ETFs, has contributed to heightened price volatility, with significant forced liquidations observed during market downturns [5][6]. - Current market themes, such as artificial intelligence and tax policy changes, are creating divergent impacts on stocks, leading to a temporary suppression of correlations among individual stocks [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing volatility in the U.S. stock market, particularly among large technology stocks, and highlights the role of derivatives in amplifying this volatility [3][4][7]. Group 1: Market Volatility - As of this year, there have been 119 instances of individual U.S. stocks experiencing a market cap change of over $100 billion in a single day, a record high compared to 84 instances last year and only 33 during the bear market of 2022 [4]. - Major tech stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple have been responsible for some of the largest single-day market cap fluctuations, with Nvidia losing $592.7 billion on January 27 and gaining $441 billion on April 9 [4]. - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, has risen sharply in October, exceeding the average level of the past 20 years by nearly 5% [4]. Group 2: Derivatives Market Impact - The derivatives market is identified as a key driver of increased volatility, with retail investors and hedge funds making short-term bets on individual stocks, leading market makers to hedge their positions and further exacerbate price swings [7]. - In October, trading volume for single-stock options reached its highest level since the retail trading boom in 2021, with retail investors accounting for 60% of this market [7]. - The rise of leveraged products, including double or triple leveraged ETFs, has contributed to the prevalence of significant single-day stock fluctuations, as seen when $26 billion worth of stocks were forcibly liquidated to maintain leverage requirements [7]. Group 3: Market Themes and Risks - Current market themes such as artificial intelligence, tax policy changes, and global trade tensions are affecting certain stocks while benefiting others, leading to a temporary suppression of correlations among individual stocks [8]. - If correlations among stocks rise again, it could lead to coordinated sell-offs among major stocks, posing greater risks to overall market stability [8].

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market is experiencing unprecedented volatility, with 119 instances of individual stocks fluctuating by over $100 billion in market value this year, surpassing previous records [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and subsequent hawkish comments from Chairman Powell have contributed to market uncertainty, leading to a significant drop in the perceived likelihood of further rate cuts [1] - Concerns are rising regarding macroeconomic factors such as renewed tariff risks and potential banking crises, which are causing increased anxiety among investors [1] Market Volatility - The frequency of single-day market value changes exceeding $100 billion has reached a historic high, with notable contributions from major tech stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Oracle [3] - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, has surged, indicating heightened investor anxiety and preparation for increased fluctuations [4] Derivatives Market Impact - The derivatives market is amplifying stock price volatility, with retail investors and hedge funds heavily betting on short-term movements of individual stocks [5] - The trading volume of single-stock options has reached its highest level since the retail trading boom in 2021, with retail investors accounting for 60% of this market [5] - Leveraged products, including ETFs, are exacerbating price swings, as seen in significant forced liquidations during market downturns [5] Sector Correlation and Risks - Current market themes, such as artificial intelligence and global trade tensions, are creating divergent impacts on stocks, leading to a temporary suppression of correlations among individual stocks [6] - If correlations rise again, significant sell-offs in major sectors could pose greater risks to overall market stability, especially if an unforeseen event disrupts the current market dynamics [6]

Core Insights - The volatility of stock prices exceeding $100 billion in a single day has become a norm on Wall Street, primarily driven by large tech companies, highlighting the risks faced by investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Volatility - There have been 119 instances this year where individual stocks experienced a market cap fluctuation of over $100 billion, setting a historical record [2]. - Major tech companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, each with market caps exceeding $3 trillion, are significant contributors to this volatility [2][4]. - The frequency of "vulnerable events" for large tech stocks, defined as price fluctuations far exceeding normal ranges, has surpassed the previous year's record [2][4]. Group 2: Impact of Earnings Reports - The upcoming earnings reports from major tech firms such as Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon are expected to heighten market risks due to their high volatility [4]. - Analysts warn that disappointing earnings could lead to severe declines in stock prices for these companies [4]. Group 3: Derivatives Market Influence - The derivatives market, particularly the trading of individual stock options, has intensified price fluctuations, with retail investors accounting for 60% of the trading volume this month [7][10]. - The rise of leveraged ETFs, which amplify stock price movements, has also contributed to increased market leverage and volatility [7][10]. Group 4: Correlation and Market Stability - Despite significant individual stock volatility, the overall market volatility remains moderate, as large-cap stocks do not typically move in sync [4][10]. - Analysts caution that if individual stock correlations rise, it could lead to synchronized sell-offs among large-cap stocks, posing greater risks to market stability [11].

Core Insights - The article highlights the impact of Argentina's decision to eliminate soybean export taxes, allowing it to sell 20 ships of soybeans to China, which has led to a significant drop in soybean prices in the U.S. [1] - U.S. soybean farmers are facing severe financial losses due to tariffs and market share erosion, with imports from the U.S. to China plummeting by 39% year-on-year [3][4] - Argentina's economic crisis has prompted a pragmatic approach to trade, prioritizing economic benefits over political alliances, resulting in a rapid increase in soybean exports to China [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. soybean prices have fallen from $15 per bushel to $9, leading to potential losses of $400,000 for farmers [3] - The U.S. market share in China has decreased from 60% to 21% due to a 10% tariff imposed by China on U.S. soybeans, increasing import costs significantly [3] - Argentina's decision to eliminate the soybean export tax has allowed it to capture a larger share of the Chinese market, which previously accounted for only 4% of its exports [4] Group 2: Economic and Political Context - Argentina's inflation rate stands at 140%, prompting the government to prioritize economic survival by removing export taxes [4] - U.S. farmers are dissatisfied with the government's focus on subsidies rather than market access, as they face long-term losses from losing the Chinese market [6] - The political implications of the trade war are significant, as U.S. farmers, a key voter base for Trump, are increasingly frustrated with the ongoing tariffs and market losses [9] Group 3: Global Trade Shifts - Brazil has gained a dominant position in the Chinese soybean market, capturing 71% of imports, while Argentina is quickly increasing its exports [4][7] - The diversification of China's supply chain has reduced the U.S. soybean's market share, with emerging suppliers like Russia and Myanmar also expanding their presence [7] - The article suggests that the ongoing trade dynamics are reshaping global agricultural trade, with China becoming a decisive factor in determining market leaders [6][9]